Tuesday, May 2, 2023

😨Beware a Collapse in Regional Banks

Good morning. First Republic Bancorp's seizure by the FDIC and sale to JPMorgan Chase has been...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. First Republic Bancorp's seizure by the FDIC and sale to JPMorgan Chase has been treated by the market as a non-event. Stocks have been up in the days leading to the bank's failure. And JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon even states that "this part of the crisis is over."

Given that depositors are moving out of smaller banks and into larger ones, chances are we may see more banks fail in the months ahead. And if they fall one at a time, and are small enough, and find buyers… then, yes, we could have an orderly collapse in the banking system that doesn't impact stock prices too much.

For now, investors should stay cautious. The market has gotten overly bullish in recent days, and bank failures can have unusual and unexpected consequences as they play out.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,051.70 -0.14%
S&P 4,167.87 -0.04%
NASDAQ 12,212.60 -0.11%
*As of market close
Stocks traded slightly lower on Monday, amid the closure of First Republic Bank.
Oil dropped 1.3 percent, closing at $75.76 per barrel.
Gold dropped 0.5 percent, ending the day at $1,989 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with Bitcoin at $27,873 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Don't Overlook "Pick and Shovel" Plays In a Down Market
During a gold rush, most prospectors won't find much, if any, gold. The real winners are those who supply prospectors with tools that they need, such as picks and shovels. Today, these suppliers don't even need to provide a physical tool. And they can profit from selling a service with a recurring revenue.

That's where cloud service companies come into play. Spending is slowing, even as it's grown 19 percent over the past year.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Lourenco Goncalves, President and CEO at Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), recently bought 100,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 2 percent, and came to a total cost of $1,496,350.

He was joined by an EVP who bought 7,300 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 2 percent, and came to a total price of $108,548. And a director bought 1,500 shares a day later, for $22,703. Insiders have been more active as buyers than sellers over the past year.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: PacWest Bancorp (PACW)
Regional bank PacWest Bancorp (PACW) was hit hard in March's banking crisis. Shares are now down 67 percent over the past year. But one trader sees a long-term rebound ahead.

That's based on the January 2025 $10 calls. With 626 days until expiration, 5,135 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 100, for a 51-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $4.05 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
JPMorgan Chase Acquires First Republic

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is taking over First Republic Bank (FRC), after the FDIC closed the bank after the market close on Friday. The deal involves JPMorgan assuming all deposits and ensuring a smooth transition for customers, and the FDIC is backstopping $13 billion in potential losses. First Republic went under with about $330 billion in deposits.
Munger Warns on Danger in Commercial Property Market

Billionaire Charlie Munger sees trouble ahead for the commercial property market in the U.S. The trouble stems from bad loans that will be vulnerable amid falling prices. So far, Munger and his business partner at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A), Warren Buffett, have avoided buying up troubled bank assets.
AI Puts 14 Million Jobs at Risk

A study by the World Economic Forum finds that 14 million jobs could disappear by 2027, about 2 percent of the current global market. That could occur thanks to a rise in technologies such as artificial intelligence. While there may be a net job loss overall, there could still be as many as 70 million new jobs created to serve the AI and other rapidly-growing industries.
GM Announces Job Cuts

General Motors (GM) has announced that it's cut the jobs of several hundred full-time contract positions, largely in the Detroit area. The workers were concentrated in the product-development space. The company also let go about 5,000 salaried workers last month, including some executives.
OpenAI Raises $300 Million at $27-29 Billion Valuation

Startup OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, has raised $300 million in its latest round of funding. The sale values the company in the $27-29 billion range, and is separate from the investment made by Microsoft (MSFT) earlier this year, which was in the range of approximately $10 billion.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
ON  9.102%
NCLH  8.539%
L 4.429%
NVDA 4.033%
MCHP 3.603%
BOTTOM
NWL 10.946%
GPN 8.828%
PNC 6.369%
CFG 5.947%
ETSY 4.85%

Quote of the Day
Friday's inflation report gives the Federal Reserve an excuse to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting, even though there is a growing chorus among investors for the Fed to pause its rate hikes given worries about the economy.
- Ryan Belanger, founder and managing principal of Claro Advisors, on the producer inflation data, which showed that inflation remains higher than expected and that further increases in interest rates are likely in the next two Fed meetings.

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Plus:

  • A current market breakdown to keep you ahead in this ever-changing world of cryptocurrencies.
  • The hottest trends to get into right now before they take off.
  • Strategies for creating a balanced portfolio for wallet growth and long term wealth-building. And much, MUCH more!

Click here to reserve your free spot.

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