News: The final sprint in Wisconsin is on

Monday, April 3, 2023

The final sprint in Wisconsin is on

Apr 03, 2023

TOP LINE

Millions of dollars have poured into the race for Wisconsin Supreme Court as liberal Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz and conservative former state Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly battle for ideological control of the court.

Conservative judges currently have a 4-3 majority, as they have for over a decade. But with one conservative justice retiring, local and national Democrats have looked to the race as a rare chance to flip control.

“Conservative groups identified state Supreme Courts as a crucial battleground years ago,” Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler told Score. “At this point, it's time for Democrats to take these at least as seriously as Republicans have.”

The contest will have an impact on redistricting, gun rights, abortion access and more. “People ask me … whether it's the most important race,” said Wisconsin Republican Party Chair Brian Schimming. “And I always say this is the most consequential race facing Wisconsin in decades.”

Your host chatted with Schimming and Wikler about the state of play ahead of Tuesday’s election.

These interviews have been edited for length and clarity.

What do you think the biggest issue of the race is?

Schimming: It's really whether we have a Supreme Court that respects the rule of law and the Constitution, or the rule of Janet. She has decided she gets to talk openly about potential cases that are in front of the court and dog whistle to liberal groups about how she would vote on those issues. … She comes from a very liberal, very soft on crime background, the record pretty clearly shows that, versus Dan Kelly, who recognizes what the role of the court is.

Wikler: Reproductive freedom and access to a safe and legal abortion is the central defining issue in this race. … The near total abortion ban that Dan Kelly [could] vote to uphold is a slap in the face, not just to women and anyone thinking of starting a family, but really all Wisconsinites who believe in freedom and democracy.

What’s your biggest concern heading into Tuesday?

Schimming: This will end up being a race driven by her contributors from out of state, including [Democratic Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker] and George Soros. … I think you're seeing a staggering amount, well beyond any experience I've had in doing 30-plus years of politics. You’re seeing a staggering amount of money come in from out of state to fix the court in Wisconsin. The liberal interests who are sending this money in could not win at the ballot box in the Assembly or in the Senate, and so they are looking to the Supreme Court to achieve liberal policy goals.

Wikler: The misinformation campaign being driven by Republican independent expenditure groups has been blistering and frankly loathsome. For many Democratic and progressive voters, it's infuriating and a motivation to cast a ballot, but it really poisons people to the whole enterprise of democracy to see those kinds of ads on the air. So I think the critical thing for Democrats is even though by all accounts Janet is ahead, no one should take anything for granted, and no one should discount the motivation of Republicans to hold on to their gerrymandered power.

When polls close, what’s the first data point you’re looking for to indicate a win?

Schimming: The campaign’s got to convince the voters, but we’ve got to turn them out. I'll be watching the Greater Milwaukee area, obviously. I'll be watching the Greater Fox Valley. I don't know if there is one data point, but of course we have a special Senate election going on in northern Milwaukee, so we'll be taking a look at that as well.

Wikler: Are we holding the swing in the suburbs of Milwaukee? Is turnout up in Milwaukee and Dane County? What does the breakdown look like in places like Racine and Green Bay where there are also critical mayoral races, or Ozaukee County where there's a state Senate special election? In the rural parts of the state, the broad Northwest and western Wisconsin, how big are the margins? Is this a moment where red is getting redder and blue is getting bluer, or like the primary where we saw an upsurge in votes for Janet Protasiewicz in every region in the state?

Happy Monday! Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Wisconsin Supreme Court election and Chicago mayoral runoff: 1

Days until the Kentucky primary: 43

Days until the Mississippi primary: 127

Days until the Louisiana primary: 194

Days until the 2023 election: 218

Days until the 2024 election: 582

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TRUMP INDICTMENT

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING — Within a matter of hours following former President Donald Trump’s indictment, his rivals and once-Trump-wary Fox News rallied to his defense, POLITICO’s Adam Wren, Natalie Allison and Lisa Kashinsky report. “By Friday morning, even Trump’s most ardent detractors acknowledged how little ground could be gained by siding against the party’s embattled former president.” An indictment so far isn’t creating an opening for another presidential candidate, “even in a GOP increasingly obsessed with electability following the loss of the White House in 2020 and disappointing midterm elections in 2022.”

… “Trump’s conservative defenders in Congress were not exactly front and center on Sunday, as rank-and-file Republicans tap-danced around his looming arraignment,” POLITICO’s Burgess Everett writes.

… President Joe Biden’s take on the indictment: No comment.

WHAT TRUMP’S SAYING — We’ll see on Tuesday night, when Trump is set to deliver remarks at Mar-a-Lago. Trump is set to be arraigned on Tuesday. But as POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney point out, Trump could push his trial into the heart of campaign season.

POLL POSITION — According to polling conducted before Thursday, Trump’s indictment “is likely to deliver a temporary boost to him in the GOP primary — but at the expense of his standing among the broader electorate that will ultimately decide whether he returns to the White House,” POLITICO’s Steve Shepard writes.

CASH DASH — Trump’s campaign said it raised more than $4 million in the 24 hours following the indictment. We’ll be able to see more about the surge when the campaign files its report to the FEC by April 15 — although it may be difficult to distinguish between fundraising off the indictment and the typical boost candidates have at the end of the quarter, which ended on Friday.

Presidential Big Board

HE’S IN — Former Republican Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is running for president, he told Jonathan Karl on ABC’s “This Week.” He’s been hitting early presidential primary states for months, and said he’ll be making a formal announcement later this month.

For what it’s worth, POLITICO has placed Hutchinson in the “long shot” category for presidential contenders: “Hutchinson has expressed misgivings about the GOP’s direction during the Trump era, but selling a return to the conservativism of the 1990s and 2000s is an uphill climb.”

FEUDING FIELD — Former Vice President Mike Pence’s staffers are privately complaining that Pence is polling in the single digits, and worried that GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley is drawing what they view as more favorable media coverage, Adam and Natalie write. “In part, the resentment reflects the continuation of a long-simmering rivalry between Pence and Haley. But it also illustrates a new dynamic in the 2024 primary, in which lower-polling candidates are beginning to go after each other — not Trump or [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis — in an effort to gain even minimal traction in the campaign.”

LOOKING FOR A LANE — Some Hill Republicans wonder if Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) can carve a lane in a presidential field, Marianne LeVine reports for POLITICO. “Still, Scott’s advisers bet that his hopeful authenticity will be his ticket to the Oval Office. Scott, the lone Black Republican in the Senate, talks often about his own life story, as well as his faith. … While most of his fellow senators expect him to eventually jump in, Scott is keeping his plans close among a small circle of advisers. For now, his colleagues are hesitant to place him in a specific lane.”

CAMPAIGN IN WAITING — An announcement for Biden’s reelection bid “isn’t imminent,” and “probably won’t come until at least after Biden returns from an expected trip to Ireland in mid-April,” the AP’s Zeke Miller and Will Weissiert report. “The choice of Biden’s campaign headquarters has been narrowed to Philadelphia, the 2020 location, and Wilmington, Delaware. … While Biden tends to prefer Delaware on all matters, some top Democrats worry that recruiting top campaign talent to Wilmington will be difficult.”

Possible names for campaign manager include Julie Chávez Rodríguez, director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and a deputy campaign manager of Biden’s 2020 campaign, Sam Cornale, executive director of the Democratic National Committee and Quentin Fulks, campaign manager for Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-Ga.) 2022 campaign.

ON THE BALLOT? — No Labels is looking to get presidential ballot lines in all 50 states for 2024, The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer reports. The centrist group is laying the groundwork for a unity ticket presidential campaign in 2024, and has qualified for the ballot in states including Arizona, Colorado and Oregon. The effort has set off “major alarm bells in Democratic circles and raised concerns among Republican strategists,” and William Galston, a founder of the group, said that he would separate himself from the group “over its 2024 planning for a third-party campaign to challenge Biden and Trump.”

TRAIL MIX — Republican Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is hitting New Hampshire after visiting Iowa, per Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser. He’ll be speaking at Saint Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics. Suarez has been laying the groundwork for a potential bid, including meeting with donors.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — The Democratic primary field for RI-01 is only getting more crowded. Former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg filed to run for the seat, although The Boston Globe’s Edward Fitzpatrick reports that Regunberg hasn’t made a final decision yet. Other candidates vying for retiring Democratic Rep. David Cicilline’s seat include the lieutenant governor and a host of other state and local lawmakers.

2024 WATCH — Arizona Republican Jeff Zink filed to run for AZ-03. He lost by more than 50 points to Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego last year, but now that Gallego is vacating the seat to run for Senate, he won’t be up against an incumbent. High-profile Democrats haven’t jumped into the race yet, but many are mulling bids.

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Arizona Democrat Jevin Hodge is not running for office again. Hodge lost the contest for AZ-01 and lost by less than one point to Republican Rep. David Schweikert. Hodge said in a statement that he won’t run for Congress or another office in 2024 because his “greatest impact” can be as a “non-profit leader, community activist, and engaged citizen.”

NOT A NO — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) didn’t rule anything out about her next steps during an interview with POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu and Jordain Carney. That includes a challenge to Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand next year (“don’t ask me that question… print that,” she said with a laugh). “There's a world where I'm here for a long time in this seat, in this position. There's a world where I'm not an elected official anymore. There's a world where … I may be in higher office,” she said.

LEGAL CORNER — A Delaware judge ruled Friday that a jury should decide a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit claiming that Fox News broadcast false statements about voter fraud after the 2020 election, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. The judge wrote that the materials released last month in Dominion Voting Systems’ defamation lawsuit didn’t establish if those at Fox “acted with actual malice” and called for a decision by a jury.

STATE OF THE UNION — The Chicago Teachers Union is “on the cusp of either elevating one of its own organizers into City Hall’s fifth floor office suites, or losing to a longtime foil at a critical point for Chicago Public Schools and Democratic politics,” POLITICO’s Juan Perez Jr. and Shia Kapos report. Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who is a former CTU organizer, has had his mayoral campaign boosted by the union and its state and national affiliates, and “the possibility of Johnson as mayor has some education watchers concerned he would be controlled by the CTU and realign the mayor’s office to the union’s causes.”

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THE CASH DASH

FIRST IN SCORE — Way to Win, a Democratic organizing and strategy group, has moved over $500,000 in Wisconsin since January ahead of the state Supreme Court race to support in-state organizations to mobilize voters of color and young people. Since 2021, the group has moved over $1.8 million in the state.

“Wisconsin is a battleground every cycle and our latest investment ensures we are doing everything in our power to drive out key voters, who are often overlooked,” Way to Win political director Maya Handa said in a statement.

STAFFING UP

— Lacey Morrison is campaign manager for Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Calif.) Senate bid. Morrison previously was regional political director at DCCC.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “It's like you just won the biggest race in the country. And the whole thing about depression is, is that objectively, you may have won. But depression can absolutely convince you that you actually lost.” (Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) on “CBS Sunday Morning”)

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