| | | | |  | | By Shia Kapos | | | Happy April, Illinois. Storms are brewing this week, and we’re not just talking weather.
|  | TOP TALKER | | | 
Chicago mayoral candidates Brandon Johnson, left, and Paul Vallas shake hands before a March 16, 2023, debate. | Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune via AP | Chicago ward politics will come into play Tuesday when voters hit the polls to decide whether Brandon Johnson or Paul Vallas should succeed Lori Lightfoot as mayor. Here are the five wards that could help determine the outcome: 47th Ward: This is the city’s biggest ward in terms of voters, so whoever wins it could see themselves heading to the Fifth Floor offices of City Hall. “It’s one of the gentrifying wards. Their money leans Vallas, but their politics lean Johnson,” said political science professor Connie Mixon. Vallas had more votes (38 percent) than Johnson (33 percent) in the first round. The biggest question is how Lightfoot voters (10 percent) will break. 44th Ward: This is another big ward. Vallas did well in round one, and he’s endorsed by outgoing Ald. Tom Tunney and incoming Ald. Bennett Lawson. “The 44th Ward is interesting because it sits between Lincoln Park, which leans Vallas, and Uptown, which could lean to Johnson,” notes campaign strategist Clem Balanoff, who worked on Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia’s campaign in the first round. It’s a North Side liberal ward that’s home both to Boystown and white upper-middle class voters who have been concerned about crime. Johnson’s ability to tap into that voting block could make a difference. 25th Ward: This Latino-majority ward that includes the Pilsen neighborhood supported Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia in the first round. Polling has since shown that Vallas is doing well with his public-safety message. Johnson has worked to counter that by ramping up his campaign in the ward. He’s also got the backing of 25th Ward Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez. 27th Ward: “This ward is a true toss-up,” says Frank Calabrese, a political consultant who has been analyzing the ward races. The West Side ward has a mix of Black and white voters, and its alderman, Walter Burnett Jr., has endorsed Vallas. “So if Johnson is winning by big margins, it talks to the strength of the overall race.” 18th Ward: This Southwest Side ward has substantial Black and Latino populations that have traditionally voted for pro-police candidates. “It’s a ward that if Johnson isn't knocking it out of the park, then he's going to have difficulty in other Black wards,” said political consultant Tom Bowen, who worked on Lightfoot’s campaign. “Eighty percent is the number to watch of the Black vote. Every point under that and it's perilous for Johnson.” — The voting diversity of Chicago’s wards, via The New York Times. — FRIGHTENING: A Chicago Public Schools teacher charged with stalking Mayor Lori Lightfoot: “In a statement, Lightfoot said: ‘No one, including any elected official, should have to experience threats of physical harm, regardless of their political ideology. I am grateful to the Chicago Police Department and State’s Attorney’s Office for their efforts to pursue justice in this incident,’” by WTTW’s Paris Schutz MORE on the mayor’s race … — ON THE HOME PAGE: Teachers are testing their political might in mayoral runoff: “The labor group wants to remake how the city government addresses housing, poverty and education, and it has built an independent political organization to push that mission,” by POLITICO’s Juan Perez Jr. and your Playbook host. — Johnson pays off more than $3,000 in water bill debts to the city: “The late-breaking controversy is an embarrassment for Johnson, who has accused Vallas of mismanaging school districts across the country but now is facing similar questions,” by Tribune’s Gregory Pratt. — NEW POLL: An independent survey by Victory Research shows Vallas with a slight lead just outside of the margin of error, an indication that this is a real nail-biter. Vallas is at 49.6 percent to Johnson’s 45.4 percent, with 5 percent undecided and a +/-3.27 margin of error. — “Black labor v. white wealth,” is how Johnson has characterized the mayor’s race in the Guardian. Chicago Ald. Anthony Beale said Johnson’s remark has “encouraged racial division,” according to a statement. And Johnson is denying he made the characterization, tweeted Tribune’s Alice Yin. — Johnson, Vallas tour South Side churches in final weekend campaign push, by Sun-Times’ Mitchell Armentrout — The Chicago Republican Party “served cease-and-desist demand letters” on multiple TV stations that broadcast an ad by the Johnson campaign claiming Vallas had been “endorsed” by the Chicago GOP. “There is no such endorsement, the ad is false and under federal law the broadcasters are under an obligation to pull the ads,” a statement reads. — Tribune profiles Johnson and Vallas. — A deep drive into spending, via AdImpact — About turnout: So far, 249,915 ballots have been cast, according to the Chicago Board of Elections. By comparison, one day out of the election in 2019 saw 135,887 ballots cast. Ward by ward stats here — With storm looming Tuesday, voters urged to get to the polls early, via ABC 7
| | THE BUZZ | | SCOOP: Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi leads all Democrats in Congress in hitting his fundraising goal for dues owed to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, according to an internal document provided to Playbook. Krishnamoorthi has paid $250,000, or 76 percent of his goal to contribute $330,000, in dues to the DCCC, according to the most recent Member Dues Report for the 2023-24 election cycle. The Illinois Democrat trails House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in actual dollars raised, but Krishnamoorthi leads in the percentage he’s contributed. Jeffries has given $550,000 or half of his $1.1 million goal, and Pelosi has given $300,000 or 60 percent of her $500,000 goal. Ponying up: Each election cycle, members of Congress are asked to cough up money to the DCCC. The numbers show donors that the party is committed to regaining control of the House. Dues goals vary and are set by the DCCC based members' committee assignments. Members don’t promise to pay, though many do. Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky has paid $100,000, or 26 percent of the $385,000 she’s expected to pay. Congresswoman Robin Kelly and Congressman Mike Quigley (IL-06) have each paid $50,000, or 15 percent of their $330,000 goals. Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (IL-14), who serves in leadership, has paid $25,000, or 5 percent of her $250,000 goal. The rest of the Illinois delegation has paid zip, at least for now. If you are Hakeem Jeffries, Playbook is curious about the math that goes into assigning dues. Email skapos@politico.com.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 4/5 FOR THE 2023 RECAST POWER LIST: America’s demographics and power dynamics are changing — and POLITICO is recasting how it covers the intersection of race, identity, politics and policy. Join us for a conversation on the themes of the 2023 Recast Power List that will examine America’s decision-making tables, who gets to sit at them, and the challenges that still need to be addressed. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | WHERE'S JB | | No official public events.
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| | Where's Toni | | No official public events. Have a news tip, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job or any other nugget for Playbook? I’d like to hear from you: skapos@politico.com
| | | | A message from Uber:   | | | | | SPOTLIGHT | | — How a TikToker brought hundreds of transplants to Peoria: “Angie Ostaszewski, a 32-year-old energy efficiency consultant, has accumulated a modest following of more than 36,000 TikTok followers for her posts about affordable houses and things to do in Peoria,” writes The New York Times’ Anna Kodé. — Former Caterpillar CEO on how to fix what’s ailing Peoria, by WCBU’s Tim Shelley
| | THE STATEWIDES | | — Pritzker issues disaster proclamation after tornadoes hit Illinois, killing 4: “The governor signed the proclamation late Saturday, allowing the state to send assistance to Boone, Crawford, DuPage, Marion and Sangamon counties,” by Sun-Times’ David Struett. — Mary Gill is appointed to the Illinois House: Gill, a Democrat active in the Mount Greenwood community organization, was appointed to replace Fran Hurley in the 35th District. Hurley is now with the Illinois Labor Relations Board, via Daily Southtown’s Mike Nolan. — Illinois could create childhood adversity index under Senate proposal, by WAND-TV’s Mike Miletich — COLUMN: Illinois could tap into a gusher of federal R&D dollars and stake its place in industries of the future, writes Crain’s Joe Cahill
| | 2023 MUNICIPAL RACES | | — Big mayoral races on the ballot in Elgin, Naperville: “In Elgin, voters will choose whether to grant a fourth term to Mayor Dave Kaptain or pass the baton to City Council Member Corey Dixon, who is hoping to become the city's first Black mayor,” by Daily Herald’s Katlyn Smith. — In Naperville, Scott Wehrli is outpacing Benny White in mayor’s race fundraising, by Naperville Sun’s Suzanne Baker — In Chicago, runoffs signal the changing City Council makeup for three North Side lakefront wards: They're so competitive, even Gov. JB Pritzker has endorsed in one race, report Tribune’s A.D. Quig and Hank Sanders.
| | BUSINESS OF POLITICS | | — Former Attorney Gen. Bill Barr headlined a fundraiser for the Illinois GOP last week — in Naples, Fla. “The sad fact is,” Illinois Republican Chair Don Tracy said in an email to supporters, Florida is where Illinois GOP donors are moving. “Naples is so popular, I think there was a Republican fundraiser almost every night there in March,” Tracy wrote.
| | CHICAGO | | — Chicago State University faculty to strike: “Professors, lecturers and other personnel at Illinois’ only mostly Black public university will strike over compensation and workload,” by WBEZ’s Lisa Philip. — Day in Court: Hadiya Pendleton murder conviction overturned; new trial ordered in Chicago teen’s slaying, by Sun-Times’ Andy Grimm
| | COOK COUNTY AND COLLARS | | — Sounds fishy: Cook County Commissioner Josina Morita and the Cook County Forest Preserves Superintendent Arnold Randall hosted “Earth-A-Palooza” at Linne Woods. Mayors George Van Dusen (Skokie), Dan DiMaria (Morton Grove) and Jesal Patel (Lincolnwood) joined along with 150 families for hiking and enviro-focused activities. On the menu: Asian Carp burgers.
| | ...SWAMP THINGS... | | — Prosecutors seeking nearly 6-year prison sentence for downstate Jan. 6 rioter: “Shane Woods is among at least three dozen Illinoisans who have faced charges stemming from the Capitol riot,” by Sun-Times’ Mitchell Armentrout.
| | | | GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat. | | | | | | | Reader Digest | | We asked what business you’d start if you were given money to do it. Kathy Ryg, the former state legislator: “Professionally, I’d open an early learning center. Personally, a brewery!” Suzie Bassi: An exercise studio for seniors. Mike Gascoigne: A bookstore. Liz Heffernan: An affordable daycare center. Jo Johnson: A cat refuge. “It might not be profitable, but it would be satisfying.” What’s the last thing you bought that you didn’t really need? Email skapos@politico.com
| | THE NATIONAL TAKE | | — The bitter GOP rivalry between Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, by POLITICO’s Adam Wren and Natalie Allison — Centrist Dems hatch secret plan to head off debt ceiling calamity, by POLITICO’s Sarah Ferris, Adam Cancryn and Burgess Everett — From agitator to insider: The evolution of AOC, by POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu and Jordain Carney
| | TRANSITIONS | | — Maura Gillespie is launching Bluestack Strategies, where she will be founder and principal. She was deputy chief of staff for former Rep. Adam Kinzinger. — Dan Balanoff is first assistant commissioner and chief of staff for Cook County Board of Review Commissioner Samantha Steele. Balanoff is a real estate and probate attorney whose firm will remain open even with his new gig.
| | TRIVIA | | FRIDAY’s ANSWER: Congrats to Lou Lang and Kristin DiCenso for correctly answering that popcorn is Illinois’ official snack. TODAY’s QUESTION: Who chaired the Blagojevich Impeachment Committee? Email skapos@politico.com
| | HAPPY BIRTHDAY | | Former Forest Park Mayor Anthony Calderone, former Illinois House Rep. Renée Kosel, public policy leader David Kohn, Goldman Sachs VP Jessica Coleman, Simpler Media Group’s Nidhi Madhavan, digital strategist Daniel Honigman, Windy City Playhouse co-founder Amy Rubenstein, talk show host Whitney Reynolds and Jewish Federation of Chicago’s Daniel Goldwin and his mom, Margie Goldwin, who share a birthday. -30- | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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