Tuesday, March 14, 2023

House GOP warms up for a budget battle

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Rep. Steve Scalise speaks during a Sept. 23 committee hearing on Capitol Hill.

House Republicans are set to embark on a multiweek stretch of ups and downs — starting today, with the release of a massive energy package authored by House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. | Stefani Reynolds/Pool via AP

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DRIVING THE DAY

TICKTOCK — “How Biden saved Silicon Valley startups: Inside the 72 hours that transformed U.S. banking,” by Adam Cancryn, Ben White and Victoria Guida: “The swift and forceful action to rescue depositors at the two failed midsize lenders rewrote crucial banking guardrails in ways that could reverberate for years. … And it almost didn’t happen. President JOE BIDEN began the weekend highly skeptical of anything that could be labeled a taxpayer-funded bailout.” Latest on the SVG fallout below

WALK BEFORE YOU RUN — House Republicans are set to embark on a multiweek stretch of ups and downs — starting today, with the release of a massive energy package authored by House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE, aimed at boosting domestic oil-and-gas production, lowering consumer costs and drawing a sharp contrast with the Biden administration’s pivot to green energy.

The legislation will be designated “H.R. 1,” underscoring how the energy issue is a central plank of the GOP agenda following a campaign cycle dominated by soaring gasoline, electricity and heating fuel prices.

While the House is expected to clear the bill by month’s end, the GOP faces a rockier road on the other side: With the debt-ceiling deadline looming, Republicans are already fretting about how they’re going to write a budget that balances in 10 years, as Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY promised conservatives during his campaign for the gavel, let alone pass one with only a four-seat majority.

Let’s unpack both of these:

THE CHIP SHOT: The Lower Energy Costs Act will comprise more than 20 bills, including proposals to boost fossil-fuel production, ease environmental reviews of energy projects and reduce reliance on Chinese materials used in things like solar panels and electric vehicles.

“It's about making more energy in America, lowering costs for families and creating good jobs,” said Scalise, who represents a key oil-and-gas industry hub in coastal Louisiana and frequently flies his colleagues out to offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

In an interview with Playbook last night, Scalise argued the bill is good for both national security and, yes, the environment: “Nobody makes energy cleaner and more efficiently than the United States. So why would you want to be begging Russia and Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to produce energy when we can produce it here in America cleaner than anyone?”

While Republicans are confident their energy pitch is a political winner, their rollout was upended this week by the Biden administration’s approval of a controversial Alaskan oil project, an announcement that is both infuriating the Democratic base and dulling the GOP’s energy attacks.

Predictably, Scalise and other Republicans say the approval of ConocoPhillips’s Willow project is too little, too late. Scalise noted that prices at the pump are still 40 percent higher than when Biden took office.

THE HAIL MARY: McCarthy last week blasted Biden’s budget proposal as “not serious” while criticizing his fiscal arithmetic. But when it comes to crafting a GOP fiscal blueprint, the speaker’s got his own math issues.

Balancing the budget in 10 years is difficult enough, with a $16 trillion gap to fill. But McCarthy’s decision to rule out cuts to Social Security and Medicare, the largest federal programs, and possibly defense spending makes the task virtually impossible.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget ran the numbers: Absent budgetary gimmicks, the group writes, Republicans would have to make cuts “so large that it would require the equivalent of ending all nondefense appropriations and eliminating the entire Medicaid program just to get to balance.”

McCarthy has a second math problem: His slim majority. Passing a budget will inevitably mean forcing swing-district members to back unpopular spending cuts. Or, one senior House Republican told us, “Moderates will be forced to walk the plank.”

Technically, Republicans don’t have to pass a budget. But GOP leaders know failing to do so would be a massive embarrassment for a party that campaigned on fiscal responsibility. What’s more, senior Republicans see it as a test vote ahead of the debt ceiling drama. While the budget won’t include many policy specifics, it will outline some cuts Republicans will demand to raise the borrowing cap while showing whether the House GOP can unite on fiscal issues.

Senior Republicans, led by Majority Whip TOM EMMER and deputy GUY RESCHENTHALER, have spent weeks surveying the rank-and-file for policy ideas that would make a debt-ceiling increase palatable. McCarthy is also pressing the issue with the leaders of the conference’s various ideological factions, and it’s sure to be a key topic of conversation at the three-day House GOP policy retreat that kicks off Sunday in Orlando.

The talks, we’re told, have focused heavily on imposing work requirements for Medicaid recipients, but members have floated accepting other possible concessions that might not have a significant immediate fiscal impact.

“If the president gives us work requirements or a secure border or a reduction in the regulatory state, if those save you money in 10 years but not three years, I think Republicans would value those outyear savings because it will change the culture of Washington,” the senior Republican said.

So far, the only group that’s released budget specifics is the House Freedom Caucus. The group last week proposed axing Biden’s $400 billion student loan forgiveness program, holding nondefense discretionary spending below current levels for the coming decade, and recouping money from the IRS and climate programs as well as unspent pandemic funds.

Already, the White House is salivating over these HFC ideas, daring the larger GOP conference to adopt them. In a new memo obtained by Playbook, the administration blasted Republicans for eyeing a repeal of climate investments that led to the announcement of more than 100,000 new jobs — many of them in Republican districts.

“Will Speaker McCarthy side against the manufacturing jobs President Biden is creating in California?” it asks. “Killing newly-created American manufacturing jobs just so the super wealthy and big corporations can enjoy tax welfare would be a gut-punch to America’s competitiveness and to thousands of working families in red states.” Read the full memo here.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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BANK ON IT — The fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and two others continued to dominate the news and political ecosystems yesterday.

The financial fallout …

— The FDIC will again seek to auction off SVB’s assets, WSJ’s Andrew Ackerman scooped, after the first attempt this weekend yielded no buyer that regulators approved. Now, with the firm declared “systemic,” officials believe the failed bank could be a more desirable target for rival banks.

— Similar midsize and regional banks took a beating in the stock market yesterday, with about a dozen of them triggering a temporary pause in trading “as investors reassessed how much such lenders were worth,” per NYT’s Joe Rennison. Among the hardest-hit: First Republic, Western Alliance, KeyCorp and Comerica.

— The Fed announced it would launch an investigation into its oversight and regulation of SVB. Vice Chair MICHAEL BARR will lead the internal review and put out findings by the start of May. More from Bloomberg

The political fallout …

— This moment of possible crisis in the banking industry amounts to a major test of Biden’s leadership and ability to maintain stability, AP’s Seung Min Kim and Fatima Hussein report. Though he’s said privately that he won’t stage a 2008 repeat with big bank bailouts, “administration officials believe that this time they had to act substantively.”

— Republican reactions tracked along some familiar fault lines: Some Republicans blamed “wokeness” in the finance industry (without much sign of a real link), as NBC captures, while others blasted the Biden administration’s move as a bailout. House Financial Services Chair PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.), notably, continued to say he had confidence in officials’ ability to steer through this crisis, Sam Sutton reports.

— Democratic reactions, while largely supportive of the Biden administration, showed some fractures, too. Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and former Rep. BARNEY FRANK (D-Mass.), who Zachary Warmbrodt notes were “two key architects of the post-2008 system of Wall Street regulation,” diverged: Frank blamed problems in the cryptocurrency industry, while Warren (like many other Hill Dems) fingered Trump-era reforms.

 

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BIDEN’S TUESDAY (all times Eastern):

11:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

2 p.m.: Biden will leave San Diego for El Monte, Calif. (via LA), arriving at 3:05 p.m.

3:45 p.m.: Biden will speak about reducing gun violence at the Boys & Girls Club of West San Gabriel Valley in Monterey Park, Calif.

7:10 p.m.: Biden will leave El Monte for Las Vegas (via LA), arriving at 8:40 p.m.

10 p.m.: Biden will take part in a DNC reception in Las Vegas.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ TUESDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up BRENT NEIMAN’s Treasury nomination, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE is out.

 

We’re spilling the tea (and drinking tons of it in our newsroom) in U.K. politics with our latest newsletter, London Playbook PM. Get to know all the movers and shakers in Westminster and never miss a beat of British politics with a free subscription. Don’t miss out, we’ve got some exciting moves coming. Sign up today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 13: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L), US President Joe Biden (C) and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (R) hold a press conference after a trilateral meeting during the AUKUS summit on March 13, 2023 in San Diego, California. President Biden hosts British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in San Diego for an AUKUS meeting to   discuss the procurement of nuclear-powered submarines under a pact between the three nations. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, President Joe Biden, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hold a press conference after a trilateral meeting during the AUKUS summit on March 13, 2023 in San Diego, California. | Leon Neal/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

THE TUCKER CARLSON PRIMARY — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said in a statement to Carlson’s Fox News show last night that protecting Ukraine is not a vital U.S. interest and American leaders should focus instead on domestic issues. It’s a striking isolationist stance that aligns DeSantis with Trump, Carlson and a growing portion of the Republican base, but not with much of the GOP establishment (or moderate swing voters).

“The venue Mr. DeSantis chose for his statement on a major foreign policy question revealed almost as much as the substance of the statement itself,” NYT’s Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman write. “It was in response to a questionnaire that the host, Mr. Carlson, sent last week to all major prospective Republican presidential candidates, and is tantamount to an acknowledgment by Mr. DeSantis that a candidacy is in the offing.”

Notable: Besides DeSantis and declared candidates DONALD TRUMP and NIKKI HALEY, Carlson also asked for responses from potential candidates GREG ABBOTT, JOHN BOLTON, CHRIS CHRISTIE, ASA HUTCHINSON, KRISTI NOEM, MIKE POMPEO, TIM SCOTT, VIVEK RAMASWAMY and CHRIS SUNUNU. Five of the 12 — Bolton, Haley, Hutchinson, Pompeo and Sununu — did not respond.

TRUMP GOES ON OFFENSE — Meanwhile, in Davenport, Iowa — and on the plane ride there — Trump stepped up attacks against his would-be opponents with an intensity he’s rarely shown thus far:

— DeSantis: Trump said he might regret endorsing DeSantis’ gubernatorial campaign in 2018, and said DeSantis “was dead as a dog, he was a dead politician,” until Trump stepped in, Alex Isenstadt reports. “He would have been working perhaps for a law firm or doing something else.” After trashing DeSantis to reporters on the plane, Trump went on stage in Iowa and hit him on his opposition to ethanol subsidies, NBC’s Jonathan Allen reports.

— Pence: Responding to his former VP’s comments at the Gridiron dinner this weekend, Trump again blasted Pence as responsible for the deadly violence on Jan. 6, WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Maeve Reston report. Trump said Pence should have tried to overturn the 2020 election and bore the blame for the insurrection because he refused to do so.

— Biden: Trump slammed Biden’s new Waters of the United States rule and his “nonstop war on American agriculture.”

Trump’s still a draw, via the Quad-City Times: “By 8:30 a.m. lawn chairs already were set up in front of the theater, saving spots for rallygoers to see the 45th president. By 2:30 p.m., a line had formed stretching a few blocks down West Third Street from the Adler Theater to Main Street in downtown Davenport.”

The takeaway from Isenstadt: “Trump returns to Iowa, with a plan to avoid the missteps he made in 2016”: “He was in a notably good mood, with little indication that the legal troubles surrounding him were causing any stress. Indeed, he was feisty at times … He was also accessible, speaking with the press corps on multiple occasions and even giving the audience a chance to ask him questions. It felt, at times, reminiscent of that 2016 run.”

DUNZO — “M.I.A. in 2024: The Republicans Trump Vanquished in 2016,” by NYT’s Reid J. Epstein and Maggie Haberman: “The last time an open Republican presidential primary featured just one candidate who had previously sought the office was in 1980.

“The relatively small size of the prospective 2024 field of Trump challengers, with several potential candidates dragging their feet on entering the race, may have something to do with the debasing experience of the Republicans who battled him in 2016 and came away with nothing to show for it but insulting sobriquets like Low-Energy Jeb, Lyin’ Ted and Liddle Marco.”

MORE POLITICS

HOOSIER VS. HOOSIER — In West Wing Playbook last night, Adam Wren broke down the ugly spat between Pence and Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG over the latter’s paternity leave, “the latest turn in a long simmering vendetta between the two ambitious Midwestern politicians whose paths have become both inextricable and politically symbiotic.”

RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT — “How the next House majority could be decided in the courts in 2023,” by Zach Montellaro and Ally Mutnick: “Republicans are readying to plow ahead with ambitious gerrymandering despite previous reprimands from state courts — now that they’ve elected judges who are less likely to thwart their plans. The first test of this strategy comes Tuesday when North Carolina’s GOP-dominated state Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether its previous Democratic majority erred.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Biden seeks tension-easing call with China’s Xi Jinping,” by WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima and Oliver Knox: “[A] U.S. official said that [national security adviser JAKE] SULLIVAN was ‘trying to signal’ willingness to reengage. ‘I know the president wants to be clear that we want to keep the lines of communication open.’”

HEADS UP — At a fundraiser last night, per pooler Andrew Restuccia, Biden said of JIMMY CARTER, “He asked me to do his eulogy. Excuse me, I shouldn’t say that.”

JUST POSTED — “Biden to sign new executive order aimed at gun violence,” by WaPo’s Matt Viser

CONGRESS

HOUSE REPUBLICANS DIAL IT UP … AND DOWN — The House Oversight GOP yesterday reupped its demand for more documents tied to the sale of HUNTER BIDEN’s paintings, The Daily Caller’s Michael Ginsberg and Henry Rodgers scooped. Art dealer GEORGES BERGÈS has argued that the records are shielded by confidentiality rules, but Chair JAMES COMER’s (R-Ky.) new letter claims “that the Oversight Committee has a legitimate interest in investigating apparent corruption.”

But Comer does not have an interest in investigating questions around possible Trump impropriety: He’s “declining to enforce a court-supervised settlement agreement that demanded that Mazars USA, [Trump’s] former accounting firm, produce his financial records to Congress,” NYT’s Luke Broadwater and Jonathan Swan report.

HACK ATTACK — “Hacker posts more D.C. Health Link data online, exposing lawmakers’ personal information,” by CyberScoop’s AJ Vicens, Benjamin Freed and Tonya Riley: “Congressional officials believe 21 members of Congress have seen their personal information leaked online.”

THE PERILS OF 51 — “Feinstein, Fetterman absences leave Democrats with fragile majority,” by The Hill’s Al Weaver

 

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TRUMP CARDS

THE INVESTIGATIONS — MICHAEL COHEN testified before a grand jury yesterday in the Manhattan DA’s investigation of the STORMY DANIELS hush money payment, a possible prelude to criminal charges for Trump, per Reuters’ Karen Freifeld. Cohen will be back for more Wednesday.

Meanwhile, in Washington, U.S. District Court Chief Judge BERYL HOWELL will pass the baton to JAMES BOASBERG this week, putting a new top judge in charge of the ongoing federal Trump/Jan. 6 investigation, NYT’s Charlie Savage reports. But “[t]here is no obvious reason to believe that the turnover will bring a major new approach: Both are experienced jurists and Obama appointees.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

TERROR TRIAL — “Manhattan bike path terrorist Sayfullo Saipov spared the death penalty,” by the N.Y. Daily News’ Molly Crane-Newman: “The outcome means [SAYFULLO] SAIPOV is destined to spend the rest of his days at ADX Florence in Colorado, America’s highest security prison.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Indicted aide to former Maryland governor misses court date,” by AP’s Brian Witte in Annapolis: “A federal judge issued an arrest warrant on Monday for ROY McGRATH, the one-time aide to former Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN, after McGrath failed to appear in court as his trial on federal fraud charges was set to begin.”

POLICY CORNER

A COMPROMISE NOBODY LIKES — “Biden angers allies, fails to soothe critics with compromise on Alaska oil,” by Ben Lefebvre and Zack Colman

EAST PALESTINE FALLOUT — “Buttigieg Backs Stricter Train Safety Rules After Toxic Ohio Derailment,” by Bloomberg’s Alan Levin

But, but, but: “Influential conservative group comes out against bipartisan rail safety bill,” by the Washington Examiner’s Juliegrace Brufke: “FreedomWorks is pushing back against a bipartisan rail safety bill … alleging that the legislation would inflict new hurdles for businesses while doing ‘little to improve safety.’”

AN IMMIGRATION REPRIEVE — “U.S. to extend legal stay of Ukrainian refugees processed along Mexican border,” by CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

IN THE LAND OF SUBMARINES — “Biden unveils submarine pact with U.K., Australia during historic San Diego visit,” by The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Gary Robbins and Deborah Sullivan Brennan: “The U.S. hasn’t made this kind of deal since it helped the U.K. with nuclear submarine development in 1958 during the Cold War.”

IRAN/SAUDI ARABIA FALLOUT — “U.S. Skeptical of Middle East Deal Brokered by Beijing,” by WSJ’s Vivian Salama and Laurence Norman: “U.S. officials expressed skepticism that Tehran would honor a Chinese-brokered entente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and denied the deal illustrated Washington’s diminishing influence in the region. … Officials in Washington hope the deal will immediately calm the situation in Yemen.”

MEDIAWATCH

NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN — “Inside the Coming Wall Street Journal Shake-Up,” by The Daily Beast’s Lachlan Cartwright: New editor-in-chief EMMA TUCKER “is extremely keen on shifting the paper away from commodity news and towards a hardcore focus on exclusives and investigations. … Tucker indicated she’s been unimpressed by the Journal’s current audience data and has begun a thorough content review to get a sense of which stories are being read and how … Tucker intends to slash the paper’s laborious and time-consuming internal bureaucracy required to publish stories on page one.”

THAT’S GOTTA HURT — “BuzzFeed Posts $106.2M Quarterly Loss Over Impairment Charge,” by The Hollywood Reporter’s Etan Vlessing

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Mitch McConnell was discharged from the hospital with a rib fracture and is expected to be at a rehab facility for physical therapy for one to two weeks.

Doug Emhoff and Kamala Harris, as Libras, have trouble deciding what to watch on Netflix.

IN MEMORIAM — “Former Rep. Pat Schroeder, pioneer for women’s rights, dies,” by AP’s Douglass Daniel: “She was 82. … Schroeder took on the powerful elite with her rapier wit and antics for 24 years, shaking up stodgy government institutions by forcing them to acknowledge that women had a role in government. … Unafraid of embarrassing her congressional colleagues in public, she became an icon for the feminist movement. Schroeder was elected to Congress in Colorado in 1972 and became one of its most influential Democrats.”

TRANSITIONS — Ana Marina Ingham is now political director of Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves’ reelect. She previously was an executive research assistant at On Message Inc. … Aaron White is now comms director for Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.). He most recently was COO and director of comms at the Progressive Policy Institute, and is a Sean Patrick Maloney and Ron Kind alum. … Amy Brink is joining the American Beverage Association as SVP for external affairs. She most recently was VP of state government affairs at Alliance for Automotive Innovation. …

… Britton Burdick is now Democratic comms director for the House Agriculture Committee. He most recently was comms director for Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), and is a One Country Project and Forbes Tate Partners alum. … Saul Levin will be legislative and policy director at the Green New Deal Network. He most recently has been policy adviser for Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.). … Sarah Durdaller is joining the Edison Electric Institute as director of media relations. She previously was deputy comms director for Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).

ENGAGED — Kelsey Tamborrino, an energy reporter for POLITICO, and Sam Janesch, a politics and state government reporter for The Baltimore Sun, got engaged Saturday in the backyard of their first D.C. apartment. The couple first met when they were both editors for their student newspaper at Penn State. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) … Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon … White House’s Rory Brosius … State’s Jimmy Loomis … POLITICO’s Campbell Rawlins Bill McGinley of the Vogel Group … Faith McPherson of National Public Affairs … WaPo’s Christine EmbaAndrea Bozek of Big Dog Strategies … AEI’s Kevin KosarDeb JospinT.A. Hawks of Monument Advocacy … Lily AdamsEric Reath of Rep. Lloyd Smucker’s (R-Pa.) office … Kelsey Cooper of Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) office … Moderna’s John Lepore … Georgetown’s Lauren Mullins … Virginia Dem Chair Susan Swecker … former Rep. Bill Jefferson (D-La.) … Amy Travieso Loveng Rick GrafmeyerKathy WrightKei Helm John Connolly of Council for a Strong America … Margita ThompsonAshley Simmons

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