| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Paul McLeary and Matt Berg | | 
Jake Sullivan’s talk follows a similar conversation Secretary of State Antony Blinken held with experts last week in which he said Ukraine’s seizure of Crimea is Putin’s “red line.” | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | With help from Lee Hudson, Daniel Lippman and Lawrence Ukenye Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Russia would probably use tactical nukes on Ukraine in the unlikely event it went nuclear at all, and the Biden administration needs to think through security guarantees to Kyiv so the Kremlin never dreams of invasion again. That’s what national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told experts on a Thursday afternoon Zoom call, according to four people familiar with the conversation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a “Chatham House Rules” talk. On the first point, Sullivan said that there’s truly no concern that VLADIMIR PUTIN would use strategic nuclear weapons on Ukraine or on Western allies. There are still internal fears he might order the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian battlefield, though there’s currently no acute sign that that’s going to happen soon. And on the second, Sullivan briefed that President JOE BIDEN spoke in Kyiv with his counterpart, VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, about what sort of “commitments” the United States could provide Ukraine after peace talks had concluded. Those commitments would have to be strong enough to deter Russia from invading Ukraine again, the national security adviser said per the people, while noting that the end of fighting or real negotiations aren’t in sight. Sullivan did not discuss the specific intelligence that led him to the tactical nukes assessment nor the specifics of what Biden and Zelenskyy discussed, though he was asked questions about both issues. The NSC declined a request to comment. In October, Biden said it would be a “serious, serious mistake” if Russia dropped tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. Russian military leaders have held conversations about when and/or if to use them, U.S. officials have said. Zelenskyy’s administration has for months pushed the U.S. to provide it with security guarantees, including “scalable weapons transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the European Union and NATO flags.” Ukraine has also made no secret it wants to join NATO, though there’s no indication membership is a near-term reality. However, Germany, France and the United Kingdom are weighing a defense pact with Ukraine as a way to incentivize Kyiv to engage in peace talks. Talk of some sort of post-war commitment to Ukraine’s security has been bubbling up in recent days, as allies take stock at the war’s one-year mark. “We definitely need to look at security commitments for the next steps,” Canadian Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference last weekend. “Even after the war, Russia will still be a very dangerous neighbor, particularly if Putin is in charge, and so we need to make sure that Ukraine is able not only to defend itself, but also to show deterrence. In that sense, thinking about the long-term security support to Ukraine is important. And so this is a conversation that we are starting.” Administration officials routinely meet with outside experts and opinion makers. Sullivan’s talk follows a similar conversation Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN held with experts last week in which he said Ukraine’s seizure of Crimea is Putin’s “red line.” Last year, two top NSC officials — AMANDA SLOAT and ERIC GREEN — hopped on a weekly call with experts to discuss their pre-war thinking about the crisis Russia started.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 3/1 TO DISCUSS AMERICAN PRIVACY LAWS: Americans have fewer privacy rights than Europeans, and companies continue to face a minefield of competing state and foreign legislation. There is strong bipartisan support for a federal privacy bill, but it has yet to materialize. Join POLITICO on 3/1 to discuss what it will take to get a federal privacy law on the books, potential designs for how this type of legislation could protect consumers and innovators, and more. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | AN UNHAPPY ANNIVERSARY: Dinner steaks put back into freezers. Big green maps. Late-night chicken fingers and french fries. Austin freakin’ Powers. That’s just some of the surprising (chicken) nuggets in POLITICO’s massive oral history of how the Biden administration prepared for, and then responded to, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Dozens of hours of interviews with top U.S. officials — like national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES — led to an intimate, raw picture of the behind-the-scenes thinking and planning for the war to come. You’ll be shocked to read that what follows is Alex’s favorite moment (as if the lede didn’t give it away) of the one-year retrospective. Here’s Sullivan, speaking to how the idea to declassify intelligence on Russian planning came to be: “In November, JON FINER and I were having a conversation about a scene in the movie Austin Powers. There’s a steamroller on the far side of the room, and a guy standing there, holding up his hand, and shouting, ‘No!’ Then they zoom out, and the steamroller is moving incredibly slowly and is really far away. The guy’s just standing there, frozen, shouting as it inches across the room. I said I was determined that we were not going to be that guy — just waiting for the steamroller to roll over Ukraine. We were going to act.” Don’t miss how European leaders dealt with the news of the invasion and how Canada’s government insists, “it’s not time to talk about peace.” SWEEPING SANCTIONS: A new year of war, a new slate of sanctions against Russia. The newest round of sanctions, announced Friday, will target actors tied to Russia’s defense and technology industry, the country’s future energy capabilities and its metals and mining sector, our own KELLY HOOPER reports. The White House will also restrict exports to the country and raise tariffs on Russian products. On Thursday night (Friday in Beijing), China called for an end to sanctions and other economic “weapons” used against Russia, demonstrating a new diplomatic push to defend their position on Ukraine, The Washington Post’s CHRISTIAN SHEPHERD reports. It also comes as U.S. officials say China is considering sending drones and ammunition to Russia, though they note no final decision has been made. The new 12-point “peace plan,” unveiled by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, lays out how to end the conflict, mostly rehashing long-standing positions. In the proposal, Chinese officials call on all countries to work “in the same direction” and resume “direct dialogue as quickly as possible, so as to gradually de-escalate the situation and ultimately reach a comprehensive cease-fire.” China abstained in a largely symbolic U.N. on Thursday to call for Russia to halt its attack on Ukraine and remove its soldiers from the region, our own MIA McCARTHY reported. Seven members — Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, Russia and Syria — voted against the resolution. Thirty-one other members abstained, including India, Iran and South Africa. RUSSIAN JETS TO IRAN?: U.S. officials say Russia might provide Iran with fighter jets, in the latest sign of the growing defense cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, Matt reports. Iran has been supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine for months, Kirby emphasized to reporters. In November, Iran shipped artillery and tank rounds to Russia for use in Ukraine. Now, Russia is planning to help out Iran to obtain more military equipment in return. When asked for details on the type of fighter jets or when they may be delivered, Kirby refused to elaborate. “That’s really as far as I’m going to be allowed to go here,” Kirby said. “We’re going to be watching this very closely to see what, if anything, actually transpires.” Meanwhile, SEAN PENN wants the U.S. to provide Ukraine with F-16s, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. Yes, the actor. On Thursday night, Sullivan said the fighter planes aren’t what Ukraine needs right now. “From our perspective, F-16s are not the key capability for that offensive. It is the stuff that we are moving rapidly to the front lines now,” he said on CNN. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: Have your drink of choice in honor of Ukraine tonight. We know we will. IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | BIDEN LIKELY IN: “Pretty much” all that’s left to do is pick the time and place for the president’s reelection announcement, First Lady JILL BIDEN told the Associated Press in a Friday interview. “He says he’s not done,” she said in Nairobi. “He’s not finished what he’s started.” That’s the clearest indication yet that Joe Biden will bid for a second term, though some Democrats are quietly preparing in case he doesn’t. An announcement is expected in April. Biden already has a primary opponent in MARIANNE WILLIAMSON, the self-help author. BOLTON SAYS TRUMP ‘UNFIT’: Interested GOP presidential candidate JOHN BOLTON, who served as DONALD TRUMP’s third national security adviser, said his former boss was “not fit to be president.” “That’s a point I would not be afraid to make if I got in the race,” Bolton said during a Washington Post Live event on Friday, adding that he believes Trump’s chances at winning the presidency are “diminishing day by day.” While emphasizing that he hasn’t thrown his hat in the race, Bolton touched on a number of campaign-like stances he has espoused before, such as providing support to Ukraine and insistence at raising the military budget.
| | | WAR OF HACKING: Experts believe Russia's invasion of Ukraine is upending the cybercriminal landscape and leading to a resurgence in hacktivism, our friends over at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. Within the eastern European cyber criminal community, groups like Conti have fractured, with members voicing support and opposition for Moscow's invasion, according to a report from Recorded Future. Russia has also suffered from a “cyber brain drain” as some of Russia's most frequent dark web users have been called to mobilize, resulting in a decrease in activity within the Russian-language dark web. Recorded Future also assesses that crowdsourced activism is likely to play a role in the conflict going forward, some of which could have economic consequences.
| | | RUSSIANS WITH JAVELINS: Russians were seen hoisting U.S.-made Javelin anti-tank missiles during the IDEX trade show in the UAE, according to Breaking Defense’s ASHLEY ROQUE and LEE FERRAN, quite the sight as the weapons has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. According to one U.S. soldier manning the Javelin tent, “a large number of Russians had come over from their booth to check out the U.S. stand — and the mood was, perhaps surprisingly, jovial. So much so, he said, that he traded patches with one Russian.” Russia’s massive blue exhibit building was right next to the much-smaller American manned-tent, meaning both parties were displaying opposing weapons used in Ukraine next to one another. Col. ARMANDO HERNANDEZ, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson, told Breaking Defense that the Army didn’t choose the location of its display. DRONE DRAMA: The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has selected the MQ-9B Sea Guardian aircraft for an operational trial beginning in April, and the timing of the agreement may put pressure on Australia to reconsider its drone buy. The announcement will come this weekend right before the Avalon Air Show in Australia, according to an industry official familiar with the issue who asked not to be named to speak ahead of the news. The move could make things awkward for Australia, who is a member of the Quad — an alliance between Australia, Japan, India and the U.S. Last year, Australia announced the country canceled a $980 million agreement with General Atomics to buy the MQ-9B, a deal that was seven years in the making. The country planned to buy 12 aircraft based in South Australia. Australia said the reason for the cancellation is that the country is committing $7.4 billion for the next 10 years to the Australian Signals Directorate, part of that nation’s intelligence community. Lee has more (for Pros!).
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | SO MANY STATEMENTS: Basically every member of Congress released statements today commemorating the one-year anniversary of the war. Instead of listing them all, we’ll give you the two we think respectively represent the mainstream Democratic and Republican positions. Sen. PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.): “The United States must continue to stand united with our allies against Russia’s brutal war at every step of the way. I am determined to continue to do all I can to ensure we provide the support Ukraine needs to defend itself and win back peace and security for its people. My heart is with Ukraine, and I am equally determined to ensure we are welcoming the refugees forced to flee their homes with open arms while looking ahead to what must be done to rebuild Ukraine stronger than before.” Sen. MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.): “It is not enough to do the right things; we need to do the right things at the right speed. The Biden administration and our allies must act more decisively to ensure that both our collective assistance to Ukraine and the investments we each make in our own militaries take place at the speed of relevance. Every experience tells us it is weakness and hesitation that provoke Putin. The road to peace lies in speedily surging Ukraine the tools they need to achieve victory as they define it.”
| | | YELLIN’ YELLEN: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN took matters into her own hands at a meeting of G20 finance ministers, directly telling Russian officials that the Kremlin has a “moral imperative” to end the war in Ukraine. It’s a rare direct confrontation that came on the anniversary of the invasion occurring during a private session with officials. They were made during a session about “international financial architecture.” “I urge the Russian officials here at the G20 to understand that their continued work for the Kremlin makes them complicit in Putin’s atrocities,” Yellen said, according to remarks that a Treasury official relayed to NatSec Daily. “They bear responsibility for the lives and livelihoods being taken in Ukraine and the harm caused globally.” The New York Times’ ALAN RAPPEPORT was first to report on Yellen’s comments. WATCH OUT, POLAND: Former Russian president DMITRY MEDVEDEV floated the idea of Moscow’s troops pushing back on adversaries, even if that means challenging Poland’s borders, Reuters’ ANDREW OSBORN and CALEB DAVIS report. On Telegram, Medvedev, who serves as deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, said potential negotiations with Ukraine and the West to end the war would lack "fundamental agreements on real borders.” "That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," Medvedev said. Zelenskyy warned in a Friday news conference that a victorious Russia would push further westward. "If Ukraine loses, Russia will enter Baltic States, and then the U.S. will have to send their sons and daughters — in the same way we are sending our sons and daughters to war," he said.
| | | |   | | | | | | — Lockheed Martin’s Senior VP of Government Affairs, CHRISTIAN MARRONE, has resigned. GREG WALTERS, VP of legislative affairs, has been named the acting SVP. — EVAN SCHATZ and JOHN RIGHTER will assume the roles of staff director and deputy staff director, respectively, for new Senate Appropriations Chair Patty Murray. Longtime Appropriations Democratic staff director CHUCK KIEFFER is retiring. — We reported Wednesday that JEN HARRIS is leaving her NSC role as senior director for international economics. Jake Sullivan wanted to wish her farewell: “We are grateful to Jen Harris for her creativity and brilliance in advancing President Biden’s agenda to dismantle the silos between economic and national security and strengthen our competitiveness at home and abroad,” he told NatSec Daily.
| | | — White House: G7 Leaders’ Statement — SERGEY RADCHENKO, The New York Times: How Will the War in Ukraine End? Maybe Like 1953 Korea. — AGATHE DEMARAIS, Foreign Policy: Russia Sanctions: 10 Lessons and Questions for What Comes Next
| | | — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Where Are the Ships? Fighting a Pacific War without American Sealift — The Brookings Institution, 10:30 a.m.: Russia suspends its participation in New START: Arms control and risk reduction in the current moment — The Atlantic Council, 11:30 a.m.: How to sustain and rebuild Ukraine’s economy — The American Enterprise Institute, 2 p.m.: Not Just an Air and Maritime Theater: The Army’s Role in the Indo-Pacific — The Wilson Center, 4 p.m.: Fire and Rain: Nixon, Kissinger, and the Wars in Southeast Asia — The Atlantic Council, 4 p.m.: As long as it takes: The European Union’s support for Ukraine Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who will never give us security guarantees about our job. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who always defends us.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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