Friday, February 24, 2023

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How the world has changed since Russia invaded Ukraine...
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Morning Brew

Apple TV+

Good morning. Today marks the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine, a seismic event with impacts that have been felt everywhere. This morning, we're going to (try to) synthesize all that's transpired over the last year, then tomorrow we'll look ahead...because this conflict is far from over.

Sam Klebanov, Jamie Wilde, Matty Merritt, Max Knoblauch, Abby Rubenstein, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

11,590.40

S&P

4,012.32

Dow

33,153.91

10-Year

3.883%

Bitcoin

$23,895.92

Nvidia

$236.64

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The S&P snapped a four-day losing streak, though it's still on pace for its worst week of the year. So, what went right yesterday? Tech giant Nvidia put the team on its back by delivering glamorous earnings on Wednesday that cemented its position as the chipmaker-to-beat in the growing AI space. With its 65% gain so far this year, Nvidia has a market cap of $582 billion (more than Meta).
 

INTERNATIONAL

The war in Ukraine, 1 year on

Collage of Zelensky, maps, text Photo Illustration: Dianna "Mick" McDougall, Source: Getty Images

Exactly one year ago today, Russian tanks rolled across Ukrainian borders, setting off the largest armed conflict since World War II.

Repercussions from the war have impacted people from Illinois to Islamabad, straining economies and reshaping political agendas. While combat continues in eastern Ukraine, let's look back on how the Russian–Ukraine war has changed the world over the past year.

The human toll

  • At least 7,199 Ukrainian civilians have died, more than 11,000 have been injured (both figures are the latest UN estimate and are likely a major undercount), and as many as 100,000 of its soldiers have died or sustained injuries.
  • Russian military casualties are believed to be approaching 200,000, per US officials.

More than 8 million Ukrainian refugees (~20% of the country's prewar population) have fled to other European countries. Hundreds of thousands of Russians also left home.

Economic losses

  • The war has cost Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars in damaged infrastructure and caused its GDP to plummet by 30% in 2022.
  • Russia's output contracted by just over 2%, surprising many economists who believed a meltdown was imminent.

But economist Sergei Guriev cautions against using GDP to measure the performance of a wartime economy since military expenditures can distort the big picture. He says Russia's economy is worse off than it seems, and points to a significant decline in Russia's consumer spending and a higher-than-expected increase in its government's budget deficit.

Shifting global trade

Russians now have to shop abroad to snag a Big Mac or a pair of Levi's jeans. Over 1,000 multinationals, including Microsoft and Nike, said they'd limit their operations within Russia's borders or leave altogether in the first months of the war, according to a group of Yale researchers led by management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld.

Sonnenfeld says that the corporate exodus from Russia is six times bigger than the one during the apartheid era in South Africa, which at the time—1988—was the largest in history.

But most damaging to the Russian economy has been the action of governments abroad. Due to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world, with restrictions on its energy exports, strategic imports, and access to the global financial system.

And the EU, which at times relied on Russia for almost half of its natural gas imports, has cut those levels to less than 10%, according to Axios.

Zoom out: The biggest international conflict since World War II has spurred many countries to reconsider their approach to national defense. Notably, Germany and Japan appear to have abandoned their customary pacifism by promising to ramp up their military spending, and the US is increasing its arms stockpiles.—SK

Tune in tomorrow, when we'll dive into what the next year might hold for the war in Ukraine.

        

TOGETHER WITH APPLE TV+

Your "what to watch" list just got Sharper

Apple TV+

Start popping that corn, folks. Movie night's lookin' juicy, courtesy of Apple TV+'s unmissable new neo-noir thriller Sharper.

We'll set the scene: From A24 and Apple Original Films, Sharper takes place among NYC's bedrooms, barrooms, and boardrooms, where characters (portrayed by a knockout cast, btw) compete for riches and power in a high-stakes game of ambition, greed, lust, and jealousy. 

Sooo consider us highly intrigued .

Starring Julianne Moore, Sebastian Stan, Justice Smith, and John Lithgow, Sharper is now streaming on any device with the Apple TV app, with a subscription required for Apple TV+.

Sign up and stream tonight. (And no spoilers!)

WORLD

Tour de headlines

A front end loader removes snow from a residential street in Draper, Utah, on February 23, 2023. George Frey/AFP via Getty Images

Winter storm causes havoc. More than 1,100 flights were canceled and nearly 1 million people were left without power yesterday evening after a major winter storm dropped snow and ice from sea to shining sea. Portland, OR, came to a halt after receiving nearly 11 inches of snow—the city's second-snowiest day on record. The storms aren't over: Down in SoCal, Mount Baldy east of LA is forecast to get 4.5 feet of snow by Saturday. But things couldn't have been more different in Washington, DC, which baked in 81-degree temps yesterday.

Ohio train derailment killed nearly 45,000 animals. That's according to new figures released by environmental officials—a huge increase from the original estimate of 3,500. All of the animals killed by the toxic train derailment were aquatic species, but none appear to have been endangered or threatened. Officials also said that live fish have reappeared in one of the waterways impacted by the derailment.

Disgraced lawyer testifies in closely watched murder trial. Taking the stand in his own defense, once-prominent South Carolina attorney Alex Murdaugh denied killing his wife and son but admitted that he had lied to police. Murdaugh blamed his lies on his addiction to opioids, saying his thinking was clouded. Prosecutors, meanwhile, have asserted that Murdaugh slayed his family to win sympathy because his financial crimes were about to be revealed (he's also facing ~100 charges for those alleged crimes).

FOOD & BEV

Oats can be milk, too, FDA says

A carton of oat milk Francis Scialabba

Products labeled as "milk" do not have to come from an udder, according to new guidance issued by the FDA yesterday. The rules are still in draft form, but if they get finalized, it would be a blow to Big Milk—which has been crying over spilled alt-milk for years.

The dairy industry has long argued that plant-based milks dilute the meaning of the term "milk" and has instead called them "beverages." But the FDA said yesterday that consumers aren't confused by the term and that makers of soy, almond, oat, cashew, hemp, and whatever other milks cafes charge extra for should be able to keep labeling their products as milk...as long as they keep the plant source upfront.

The new draft rules also suggest that alt-milk-makers add an extra label indicating when they're less nutritious than cow's milk, which didn't go over well with plant-based food advocacy groups.

Dairy hasn't been dethroned yet: Despite the rising popularity of nondairy milks in the US (almond is No. 1, but oat is gaining on it), the cow-based kind still outsells it five times over. Sales of cow's milk totaled $12.3 billion for roughly the past year, compared with $2.5 billion for nondairy alternatives, per NielsenIQ.—JW

        

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ENTERTAINMENT

Don't think too deeply about it: It's a bear on cocaine

Don't think too deeply about it: It's a bear on cocaine Cocaine Bear/Universal Pictures

Slasher fans who always leave movies thinking "not enough coke-fueled disembowelment" are finally getting what they want. Cocaine Bear, the Elizabeth Banks-directed movie that's partially based on true-ish events, opens today.

The real story: The movie is loosely based on a 1985 incident in which a drug dealer dropped 75 pounds of cocaine from an airplane along the Georgia–Tennessee border. He tried to jump out after it, but his parachute failed and he plummeted to his death. A few months later, authorities found a ripped duffel bag and a dead bear that tested positive for cocaine.

The botched drug smuggling story became a local legend. And 38 years after the powder fell from the sky, we get to see the film that answers the vital question: "OK, what if the bear didn't die?"

No bears were harmed. In fact, there were no bears near the set. Instead, stuntman and motion capture artist Alan Henry played the bear during filming, wearing a bear head and walking on all fours with special attachments on his arms. Peter Jackson's visual effects company, Weta FX, added the full CGI bear (which ate up most of the movie's $35 million budget) after filming.—MM

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

The skyline of Istanbul, Turkey Ayhan Altun/Getty Images

Stat: Any guesses for the world's best-performing stock market? It's…Turkey's, which has soared about 70% in the last year, Asia Times reports. The country has been through a lot: a currency crisis two years ago, rampant inflation, and, most recently, earthquakes that killed tens of thousands. But its economy has benefited from close trade relationships with China, Russia, and the Middle East following US sanctions on the Kremlin.

Quote: "This is not something that Floridians want."

No, that quote isn't about alligators in backyards or clothing emporiums that sell t-shirts with bootleg drawings of Goofy on them. It's a response to public backlash over a proposed Florida bill that would ban dogs from hanging their heads out of car windows, among other animal protection measures—like making declawing cats illegal and establishing a registry for people convicted of animal abuse. A spokesperson for the Florida senator who sponsored the bill said that the anti-dog-vibing provision will be removed from the legislation or significantly changed.

Read: What's wrong with bananas. (Plantings)

QUIZ

Quizzing me softly

Weekly news quiz

The feeling of getting a 5/5 on the Brew's Weekly News Quiz has been compared to when someone pulls out of a spot right in front of you in a busy parking lot.

It's that satisfying. Ace the quiz.

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced co-founder of FTX, was hit with four more criminal charges, including ones related to his political contributions.
  • Carlos Watson, the CEO and founder of Ozy Media, was arrested and charged with fraud.
  • The US nominated former Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga to head up the World Bank. The position will open in July, when David Malpass, the current president, steps down.
  • Succession's upcoming fourth season will be its last.
  • LIV Golf League begins its second season today. The controversial PGA Tour rival has refreshed its branding and put more emphasis on team competition.

RECS

Friday to-do list

A fibbing Wordle: This game is like Wordle, but with one lie per line.

Chart of the week: Which generation controls the Senate?

Plants on the cheap: How to fill your house with houseplants for less than $50.

The Brew, in podcast form: This week, we launched a daily podcast as a companion to this newsletter, and it's already near the top of Apple's business podcast charts. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or watch on YouTube.

Tech knowledge: Join over 400k business leaders reading Tech Brew to keep informed of the innovative technologies transforming the business world. Subscribe for free.

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GAMES

The puzzle section

Picdoku: The mushrooms in today's Picdoku don't turn people into zombies—promise. Play the fungi-themed puzzle here.

Friday puzzle

Love this puzzle from The Guardian:

"This sentence contains _______ letters."

Write a number in words in the blank space in the above sentence that will make the statement true.

AROUND THE BREW

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ANSWER

There are two possible solutions: "Thirty six" or "thirty eight."

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, Abigail Rubenstein, Sam Klebanov, Jamie Wilde, and Matty Merritt

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