TRAGEDY AT MICHIGAN STATE — “MSU shooting suspect dead of self-inflicted gunshot wound,” by the Detroit News’ Craig Mauger, Jakkar Aimery and Beth LeBlanc: “A suspected gunman who killed three people and wounded several others on the campus of Michigan State University was found dead late Monday night from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, police said. … Just after 11:30 p.m., MSU police confirmed three individuals had been killed in addition to five victims who were transferred to a Lansing hospital.” JUST POSTED — “Pence to fight special counsel subpoena on Trump's 2020 election denial,” by Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: Former VP MIKE PENCE’s “is set to argue that his former role as president of the Senate — therefore a member of the legislative branch — shields him from certain Justice Department demands. “Pence allies say he is covered by the constitutional provision that protects congressional officials from legal proceedings related to their work — language known as the ‘speech or debate’ clause. The clause, Pence allies say, legally binds federal prosecutors from compelling Pence to testify about the central components of [Special Counsel JACK SMITH’s] investigation.” BUZZY EXIT INTERVIEW — The New Yorker’s Evan Osnos interviews recently departed White House chief of staff RON KLAIN about “handling division within the Democratic Party and the sometimes underrated value of expertise” in D.C.: “Ron Klain Looks Back on Biden’s First Two Years as President” Klain also joined The Colbert Show last night. Watch here. MODS’ DEBT LIMIT DILEMMA — The biggest subplot of the slowest-moving story In Washington — the partisan standoff over the federal debt ceiling — has so far centered on whether, absent a deal between President JOE BIDEN and Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY, moderate House Republicans might somehow band together with House Democrats to avoid a catastrophic default. The speculation has gone far enough to prompt several explainers about how it all might work — whether through a discharge petition or other obscure House procedures that could allow a bipartisan coalition to skirt conservatives’ spending-cut demands. It’s gone so far, we’re told, that McCarthy has in recent days sent a message from on high to centrists who have openly toyed with the idea: You’re killing my leverage with Biden. “Don't talk about a discharge petition because we absolutely weaken our hand and won’t get concessions if you do,” said one person familiar with the internal conversations, summarizing the leadership message. At the same time, centrists are getting assurances that McCarthy & Co. have no intention of sparking a default, “but why don't we get some concessions out of it?” The message has been heard loud and clear. Some of those who had previously suggested they might be open to a discharge petition or other workaround, such as Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.), have publicly backed away. One especially prime target for Democrats, Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), said the notion of sidelining McCarthy was “DOA.” But while these conversations might have gone underground, we can report that they are very much still alive. Multiple people involved told us last night that a core group of bipartisan lawmakers have been texting, emailing and meeting about a potential backup plan should the McCarthy-Biden debt talks falter. It’s far too early to say what that could look like, but the lines of communication are very much open. So how exactly should we think about what’s happening here? This morning, we’re going to flesh out the arguments we’ve heard — both for why a bipartisan off-ramp might be possible, and why it’s probably a nonstarter. First, the case AGAINST … 1. POLITICAL PRESSURE: There’s a reason why only two discharge petitions have succeeded in the 21st century: It’s tough for lawmakers to buck their party leadership — and risk angering primary voters, alienating donors and courting a primary challenge. Key conservative groups insist they are not worried. FreedomWorks President ADAM BRANDON told us McCarthy’s office personally assured him that GOP members will stay in line. Club for Growth president DAVID McINTOSH, meanwhile, likened the situation to the votes on DONALD TRUMP’s impeachments. “It’s going to be the big clash here in Washington and the big test of: Will Republicans stand up?” he told Playbook. “There'll be enormous pressure to stay united and help the party win.” 2. GOING ALONG TO GET ALONG: Centrists talk a big game about adopting the Freedom Caucus’ hard-nosed tactics. But moderate Republicans tend to be closer to party leaders than the hard right and, as such, averse to crossing them. “They get a lot of support from the leadership in their campaigns, so it is scary for a lot of members” to sign a discharge petition or vote down a rule, former Rep. CARLOS CURBELO (R-Fla.) told us yesterday. Curbelo would know. He was one of the lead organizers of a 2018 discharge push aimed at passing a bipartisan immigration reform proposal over the objections of conservatives decrying “amnesty.” The effort — chronicled by Rachael at the time — fell two votes short. 3. BIDEN’S STUBBORN STANCE: The president’s insistence on a “clean” debt-ceiling increase without negotiations doesn’t hold much appeal for centrist Republicans, who share a desire for fiscal reforms with their conservative colleagues, if not their taste for confrontation. That has helped McCarthy, who has convinced many would-be defectors that if Republicans stand united, they’ll have something to show for it in the end. To that end, his deputies are now meeting with leaders of the House GOP’s various factions in hopes of crafting an alternative proposal — one pairing a debt-limit increase with spending cuts that can pass with only GOP votes and strengthen McCarthy’s hand. Now, the case FOR an off-ramp … 1. BIDEN-DISTRICT REPUBLICANS: Despite all those reasons for pessimism, several lawmakers told us not to rule out a bipartisan end-run completely — including Curbelo, who couldn’t quite get there on immigration. Why? For one, the margins are tighter this time, with only five Republicans needed to join the 213 Democrats that will likely be seated after a Virginia special election next week. No fewer than 18 House Republicans hail from districts Biden carried in 2020. If the McCarthy-Biden talks fall through, the thinking goes, these members will be looking for an escape hatch — and may be especially worried about being blamed for economic calamity. 2. GOP IN DISARRAY: There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that McCarthy’s “unity bill” will ever come to fruition: In 2018, House leaders also tried to unite the Republicans around an immigration proposal to derail Curbelo’s discharge petition. After weeks of painful talks and ugly intraparty clashes, talks fell apart — and moderate Republicans got rolled. Republicans face similar challenges this year. Conservatives will push for steep spending cuts that could gut key federal programs. Will Biden-district Republicans risk a vote on an unpopular messaging bill that can’t clear the Senate? Democrats are strongly betting they won’t: “He can't pass a plan with cuts,” Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER declared on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. “His hard right will demand the kind of deepest cuts that his more mainstream Republicans won't vote for. … We're going to win this fight, and it's going to be a clean debt ceiling.” Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. IT’S OFFICIAL — Biden will name Fed Vice Chair LAEL BRAINARD as director of the National Economic Council, making her the first woman to hold the position since 1996, Bloomberg’s Kate Davidson, Jennifer Jacobs and Josh Wingrove report. JARED BERNSTEIN, meanwhile, is set to become chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. WHO’S AFRAID OF NANCY PELOSI? — Not the 91-year-old Taiwanese billionaire tech entrepreneur MORRIS CHANG, it turns out. Alex Burns’ Tomorrow column today leads with an account of the unexpected standoff between Pelosi and the founder of the chipmaking goliath TSMC, who confronted the House speaker during her visit to Taiwan about the U.S.’s bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act — and specifically whether the $52 billion in subsidies for manufacturing of semiconductors was a political trophy or a serious investment commitment. The zoom out: “That very question now hangs over the Biden administration as it prepares to implement the semiconductor spending in the CHIPS and Science Act… As Chang told Pelosi, there is a long distance between the cutting of government checks and the creation of a self-sustaining chips industry in the United States. His candid concerns represent a rough guide to the challenges Biden’s semiconductor policy will have to address if it is to succeed.”
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