🔥 McCarthy's huge gamble

Plus: Juror spills on Trump probe | Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Open in app View in browser   Presented By bp   Axios Sneak Peek By Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Feb 21, 2023 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 952 words ... 3.5 minutes. ⚡ Situational awareness: Democratic state Sen. Jennifer McClellan will become Virginia's first Black congresswoman after winning a special election tonight in the state's 4th Congressional District.     1 big thing: McCarthy plays with fire Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images   House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has made an audacious bet by reopening the debate over Jan. 6, thrilling the GOP's right-wing base but horrifying moderates who see the insurrection as a political albatross, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Driving the news: As Axios first reported, McCarthy has entrusted Fox News' Tucker Carlson with 41,000 hours of Capitol surveillance footage from the Jan. 6 insurrection. McCarthy had faced intense pressure to release the footage from far-right members whose votes he needed to become speaker. The step was hailed by right-wing media and GOP members such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who has described Jan. 6 riot defendants as "political prisoners." Democrats, including members of the House Jan. 6 committee, condemned the move as a dangerous partisan stunt with serious implications for Capitol security. What they're saying: "[T]he apparent disclosure of sensitive video material is yet another example of the grave threat to the security of the American people represented by the extreme MAGA Republican majority," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) wrote in a letter to colleagues today. Why it matters: House Republicans have been itching to exact revenge on the Jan. 6 committee dating back to last summer. But polls — and election results — consistently have shown Jan. 6 to be a losing issue for Republicans. Two years after supporters of former President Trump stormed the Capitol to try to reverse his election defeat, 59% of all voters say Trump is responsible for inspiring the attack, according to a Morning Consult/Politico poll last month. Election deniers suffered losses across the board in the 2022 midterms. They contributed to an underwhelming GOP performance, raised doubts about the potency of a Trump endorsement — and left McCarthy with a smaller House majority than he had hoped. Zoom in: That majority is propped up by moderates and Republicans who won in Biden districts, where independents and suburban swing voters are more concerned with pocketbook issues than re-litigating a dark day in U.S. history. "I get it. There are people that still want to kick that dead horse," Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) told CNN last year, when the idea of rehashing Jan. 6 first gained steam. But "I think the smartest political move for us is to concentrate our efforts on the policies that will absolutely make life better for all Americans." The big picture: McCarthy signaled support for releasing the footage last month, characterizing it as a matter of transparency. Publishing the tapes publicly would be celebrated by the media organizations that have pushed for access in court. But giving exclusive access to Carlson — who has promoted conspiracy theories suggesting Jan. 6 was a "false flag" operation — undermines any claim that this isn't a partisan exercise. Share this story.     2. 🇺🇦 Republicans blast Biden's Ukraine visit President Biden poses with children after delivering a speech at the Royal Warsaw Castle Gardens in Warsaw, Poland. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images   The MAGA view that the Biden administration is doing too much for Ukraine is continuing to migrate from the fringe to the mainstream of the Republican Party: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who took hawkish positions on Russia as a member of Congress during the Obama administration, criticized President Biden for visiting Kyiv yesterday while "not doing anything to secure our own borders here at home." Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), a moderate on some issues, called Biden "an embarrassment on the world stage" and said he should be visiting the site of the toxic derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, instead of Ukraine. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), chair of the largest bloc of House conservatives, accused Biden of making the trip to "distract from the terrible situation" at home and suggested Hunter Biden's business ties with Ukraine were a motivating factor. Yes, but: The party is still divided. House Foreign Affairs Chair Mike McCaul and four other House Republicans met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv today to discuss Ukraine's military needs.     3. 🏛️ Dems score fast with new statehouse control Data: The States Project; Table: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals After being shellacked by Republicans in state legislative races over the last decade, two states where Democrats gained full control in 2022 are passing legislation at a breakneck pace, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports. Why it matters: With federal legislation jammed up by a divided Congress, down-ballot races have become more important than ever to issues at the heart of the national debate, including abortion, voting laws and LGBTQ rights. Driving the news: The Minnesota Senate and Michigan House passed more bills in the month of January 2023 than during Januaries in the last six sessions combined, per new data from The States Project, an outside Democratic Group. The States Project made historic investments in these state legislative races last cycle, helping the party flip four chambers: the Michigan House and Senate, Minnesota Senate and Pennsylvania House. Democrats just won all three critical state special elections in Pennsylvania, cementing their November win and marking the first time in 12 years that the party has had a majority in the state House. Keep reading.     A message from bp bp is a top energy investor in the U.S.     bp is one of America's leading energy investors — with over $130 billion invested here since 2005. We're working to deliver the energy America needs today, while developing lower carbon alternatives. See how we are advocating for good policy to help us go further, faster.     4. 👀 Juror spills on Trump probe Trump points to his supporters at his Presidents Day event in West Palm Beach, Fla. Photo: Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images   Shot: The special grand jury investigating Trump and his allies' efforts to overturn the election in Georgia recommended indictments against more than a dozen people, according to the jury forewoman. Asked by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about Trump's claim that the sealed jury report totally exonerated him, the forewoman burst out laughing and asked: "Did he really say that? Oh, that's fantastic. That's phenomenal. I love it." Chaser: FEC filings show Trump spent roughly $10 million from his Save America PAC on personal legal fees last year.     A message from bp bp is one of America's leading energy investors     Our U.S. wind business exists to provide low carbon energy. This includes our joint venture with Equinor in the Northeast that has the potential to power more than 2 million homes. See how we are advocating for good policy to help us go further, faster.   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Your personal policy analyst is here Stay ahead of the trends, players and outside forces shaping policy in your industry with Axios Pro. Contact us for special corporate and government pricing.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: