⚓Optimism Slump Hints at the Reason Behind the Market’s Next Drop

Good morning. Small business optimism has continued its decline, according to the latest survey...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Small business optimism has continued its decline, according to the latest survey. While inflation is coming down, slower spending and economic activity is weighing on firms. In the investment world, this optimism comes with a grain of salt. That's because the most widely-traded stocks are big businesses, which can handle a downturn better than smaller companies. But the real issue is one that will impact all companies, whether publicly-traded or private. That's simply the fact that profit margins are likely to decline. That will weigh on earnings, and for most stocks, likely lead to more downside pressure. Traders should keep an eye on opportunities on the short side, as the factors weighing on stocks remain. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content The Insider's Option Trading Code Retail traders are about as far on the outside as it gets. But not… me! An options expert with years of experience with this unique options trading strategy, which has been rolling out winners like clockwork the past few months. I was on the inside as a Wall Street broker and hedge fund trader. What I discovered was how to find "primed-for-profit" options trades before the market moves. Like these… 145% gains on VIX 163% gains on UNG 236% gains on OXY Click here for full details… (By clicking you agree to receive email updates and special offers from Benzinga. Privacy Policy) MARKETS DOW 33,973.01 +0.80% S&P 3,969.61 +1.28% NASDAQ 10,931.67 +1.76% *As of market close • Stocks rose again on Wednesday, ahead of the latest inflation data. • Oil jumped 3.3 percent, last going for $77.61 per barrel. • Gold traded flat, ending at $1,881 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies generally rose, with bitcoin trading at $17,558 at the market close. Today's TOP TIPS Buy Companies Investing for Tomorrow in Today's Uncertain Markets It's clear the market won't hit new highs anytime soon. But before investors throw in the towel, it may be prudent to instead look at how great companies are acting today. Many are starting to invest with the future in mind. Some of these investments may be relatively small, but over time, they could prove transformative to the companies making them today. They could even ensure big growth for companies that already lead in their respective industries. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: Nexpoint Real Estate Finance (NREF) Matt McGraner, Chief Investment Officer at Nexpoint Real Estate Finance (NREF), recently added 5,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 5 percent, and came to a total cost of just over $84,000. Insiders have been regular and steady buyers of shares over the past two years, with no insider sales over the same time. The buyers also include the company General Council, and the company President as well as directors. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Shares of natural gas producer Chesapeake Energy (CHK) are up 27 percent in the past year amid a strong energy market. One trader sees a further rally in shares in 2023. That's based on the January 2024 $100 calls. With 372 days until expiration, 6,499 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 229, for a 28-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $9.70 to make the bullish bet. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • FAA System Outage Grounds Flights The Federal Aviation Administration suffered a computer outage on Wednesday, which resulted in all domestic flights being grounded in the day. Flights resumed late in the morning. Flight delays have been a recurring issue in past weeks, with most outages the result of weather delays. • Mortgage Refinancing Demand Rises Home mortgage refinancing applications rose by 5 percent in the past week. That move came as 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped to 6.42 percent from 6.58 percent. Rates are still nearly double that of a year ago, when 30-year mortgages were 3.52 percent. • Japan Culls 10 Million Birds Amid Avian Flu Outbreak Japan has culled 10 million birds across the island nation, amid an outbreak of avian flu. The total animals culled exceeds the previous record of 9.87 million set in 2020. The cull largely involves chickens, and is expected to push up egg prices in Japan even further than the rising prices seen in the rest of the world. • California Bucks Natural Gas Price Drop Natural gas prices are coming down as winter weather has moderated. However, in California, natural gas prices have been rising, and are now about 5 times the benchmark US price. That's led to a spike in utility bills, a trend likely to continue in the months ahead. • DeepL Raises $100 Million at $1 Billion+ Valuation AI-based language translator platform DeepL has raised $100 million in funding. That's valued the German-based company at over $1 billion. The company's focus on translation services for businesses rather than individuals can allow it to scale, and DeepL reports that it is breaking even financially at present. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP GEHC  9.35% BIO  6.554% M 5.992% ETSY 5.862% SEDG 5.706% BOTTOM TFX 7.758% DXCM 4.388% ISRG 4.08% RXO 2.794% TCOM 2.722% Quote of the Day I think it is going to be a challenge to try to time when the Fed will ultimately start to cut rates. There is some evidence that when rates start to decline from the Federal Reserve, better markets are ahead. But whether that ends up being in 2024 or late 2023, at least at this point in time, sitting the middle of January, it's just too difficult a situation. - Matthew Palazzolo, senior investment strategist at Bernstein Private Wealth Management, on why investors may not want to try to time the Federal Reserve's change in policy from rising interest rates. Sponsored Content The Insider's Option Trading Code Retail traders are about as far on the outside as it gets. But not… me! An options expert with years of experience with this unique options trading strategy, which has been rolling out winners like clockwork the past few months. I was on the inside as a Wall Street broker and hedge fund trader. What I discovered was how to find "primed-for-profit" options trades before the market moves. Like these… 145% gains on VIX 163% gains on UNG 236% gains on OXY Click here for full details… (By clicking you agree to receive email updates and special offers from Benzinga. 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