Thursday, January 12, 2023

⚡ DOJ makes history

Plus: Timeline of Biden probe | Thursday, January 12, 2023
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Jan 12, 2023

Welcome to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 914 words ... 3.5 minutes.

 
 
1 big thing: The era of special counsels
Illustration of US map with the flag on top and a large crack in the center. A hand is holding a magnifying glass up to the crack.

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

 

Look no further than the last half-decade at the Justice Department for a snapshot of America's polarized politics:

  • 2017: Robert Mueller is appointed by deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein to investigate the 2016 Trump campaign's ties to Russia.
  • 2020: John Durham is appointed by Attorney General Bill Barr to "investigate the investigators" for possible abuses during the Russia probe.
  • 2022: Jack Smith is appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate Trump's handling of classified documents and efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
  • 2023: Robert Hur is appointed by Garland to investigate President Biden's handling of classified documents.

Why it matters: The whiplash of the last five years has brought us to an unprecedented moment in U.S. history: Two special counsels are now investigating two presidents who ran against each other in the last election — with a high likelihood they will do so again in 2024.

Driving the news: Garland said today that he "strongly" believes normal DOJ processes could have handled the Biden investigation "with integrity" — but that "extraordinary circumstances" led him to conclude a special counsel was necessary.

  • Garland didn't elaborate, but those circumstances undoubtedly include his decision less than two months earlier to appoint a special counsel to investigate Biden's chief political rival over his own classified documents scandal.
  • The distinctions between the Trump and Biden cases are significant, but just the presence of the files at Biden's private office and Delaware home has provided a massive political gift to Republicans.

Between the lines: Trump's war on institutions — and Democrats' response to a figure they view as uniquely dangerous — has fostered a system in which virtually any investigation of a politician is seen through a partisan lens.

  • Garland, a former federal judge, has been painstaking in his efforts to avoid the slightest possible appearance of politicization.
  • He specifically chose Trump-appointed U.S. attorneys to conduct both the initial review of Biden's classified documents and the subsequent special counsel inquiry.
  • Some former federal prosecutors have expressed skepticism that the appointment of a special counsel — which DOJ regulations say is warranted if there is a basis for a "criminal" investigation — was necessary based on the known facts.

The bottom line: None of these careful steps are likely to placate Republicans who see Garland as a partisan attack dog — and have made investigating the "weaponization of the federal government" a top priority of the new Congress.

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2. 🔎 What we know so far
Data: Axios research; Chart: Axios Visuals

There is a universe of fewer than two dozen aides who worked in then-Vice President Biden's official office during the Obama administration, providing a narrow pool of witnesses for special counsel Hur to target, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

  • A few, including assistant Kathy Chung, have already been interviewed by federal authorities, NBC reported.

The big picture: The Justice Department has a high standard for prosecuting people who mishandle highly sensitive government documents, and a sitting president cannot be indicted.

As the FBI has laid out, previous prosecutions involved some combination of the following four factors:

  1. Clearly intentional and willful mishandling of classified information.
  2. Vast quantities of materials exposed in such a way as to support an inference of intentional misconduct.
  3. Disloyalty to the United States.
  4. Efforts to obstruct the investigation.

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3.❓What we don't know
Attorney General Merrick Garland

Attorney General Merrick Garland. Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

 

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre deflected or declined to answer a number of questions about the Biden documents during today's press briefing, citing an "ongoing process."

Five unanswered questions:

  1. How and why did the documents get to each location?
  2. Why did it take over two months to disclose the matter to the public after the first document discovery?
  3. Why didn't the White House confirm a second set of documents was found after revealing the first?
  4. Why did Biden's lawyers search his home instead of the FBI/DOJ?
  5. Is Biden willing to be interviewed by the special counsel?
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4. ☀️ Focus groups: Florida swing voters picky on GOP probes
Microphone and magnifying glasses

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

 

Florida swing voters are skeptical of the broad array of GOP investigations now that they've retaken the House majority, Alexi McCammond reports from the latest Axios Engagious/Schlesinger focus groups.

  • They do see legitimacy in holding the administration accountable for the crisis at the southern border and applying extra scrutiny to law enforcement agencies given how much power they hold.
  • But they don't have much appetite to go after Hunter Biden, Anthony Fauci, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan or whether Twitter leaned left before Elon Musk's acquisition.

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5. ✍️ Bookmark: McCarthy's entitlements pledge
Kevin McCarthy

Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told reporters that Republicans "will always protect Medicare and Social Security" and said he wants to sit down with President Biden to discuss a deal to avoid a debt-ceiling crisis.

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📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

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