| | | | | | | Presented By Circle | | | | Axios Markets | | By Matt Phillips and Emily Peck · Jan 19, 2023 | | Happy Thursday, everybody. Readers weigh in today on the still-simmering gas stove controversy. (Couldn't resist the pun.) Today's newsletter is 987 words, 4 minutes. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Bankers gone mild |  | | | Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios | | | | Facing an uncertain economic outlook, bankers are clustering around the same, somewhat mealy-mouthed word to describe their expectations for 2023: "mild." The big picture: The economy is in a very strange place right now, Matt writes. Driving the news: In post-earnings conference calls over the last week, high-powered financial execs repeatedly used the "m-word" construction to describe what they see coming. - JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum: "The firm's macroeconomic outlook ... now reflects a mild recession in the central case."
- Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan: "Our baseline scenario contemplates a mild recession."
- Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser: "We continue to see the U.S. entering into a mild recession in the second half of the year."
- PNC Financial CFO Robert Reilly: "We're now expecting a mild recession in 2023, resulting in a 1% decline in real GDP."
Our thought bubble: Just because bankers are all singing from the same hymnal doesn't mean the tune is correct. The bottom line: The recent chorus calling for a mild recession could be right. But Fed chair Jerome Powell may have said it best back in November, "I think no one knows whether there's going to be a recession or not and, if so, how bad that recession would be." |     | | | | | | 2. How inequality impacts Social Security |  Data: Source: Social Security Administration via Economic Policy Institute; Chart: Axios Visuals Because of rising income inequality, the share of Americans' incomes that are subject to the Social Security tax is at a nearly 50-year low, per a new report from the progressive Economic Policy Institute, Emily writes. Why it matters: The decline translates to billions of dollars lost that could go to shore up Social Security, which is on an unsustainable long-term footing, as Axios Macro's Neil Irwin has written. How it works: This is all about the 6.2% payroll tax (aka FICA) on workers' gross income. These taxes are not collected on earnings after a certain maximum. - In 2022, that maximum was $142,800. The cap gets reset each year based on wage growth: This year it's $160,200. Only about 6% of wage earners — around 11 million workers — make more than that cap.
- Theoretically, increasing the cap each year should mean that the share of earnings subject to the tax remains level. But because incomes at the top have risen rapidly over the past few decades, there's more money coming in over that cap — and it's not getting taxed, as Congressional Research data noted in 2021.
By the numbers: Each percentage point drop in the share of earnings subject to the Social Security tax reduces tax revenue by $12.6 billion, EPI estimates. Zoom out: It seems contradictory to note this since Social Security is a crucial poverty-fighting program, but Social Security taxes are actually more burdensome for lower-wage earners. Plus, those who exceed the cap wind up paying a lower tax rate. - Someone making $160,000 a year pays 6.2% in Social Security taxes, while someone earning $320,000 pays 3.1%.
What's next: A few bills seek to eliminate the cap or rejigger it in other ways. - Opponents of raising the cap argue that it would discourage work and "weaken the link" between what individuals pay into the system and what they get out of it, the conservative Peter G. Peterson Foundation notes.
Go deeper | | | | | | | | 3. Catch up quick | | 💸 U.S. expected to hit borrowing limit today. (Axios) 👀 Inside Yellen's rare meeting with China's vice premier. (Axios) 👨🏻⚖️ U.S. fraud trial begins over Elon Musk's 2018 Tesla tweets. (AFP) 🛑 Amazon ends "Smile" charity program to cut costs. (Bloomberg) | | | | | | | | A message from Circle | | Responsible regulation, responsible competition | | |  | | | | In Davos, Circle's policy and regulatory leaders discuss cryptocurrency's global state of play. The goal: As the issuer of a leading digital dollar, Circle understands the importance of helping shape effective digital asset regulation with safety and transparency in mind. Learn more. | | | | | | 4. Office space, not wanted |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | The commercial real estate market isn't doing so hot, particularly when it comes to office space, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report out yesterday. Why it matters: Commercial real estate demand was crushed by the pandemic and hasn't really recovered, Emily writes. What they're saying: The Beige Book compiles anecdotal reports from businesses around the country on economic conditions in the 12 Fed districts. Most noted the deteriorating office market... - "Sentiment toward office space is turning increasingly dour," per the Philadelphia Fed.
- There was decreased demand for office and retail space particularly in central business districts," per Richmond.
Yes, but: The downward trend has "eased some" in the Atlanta office sector, as more companies tell workers to come back to the office. The bottom line: The commercial real estate market moves slowly, but you can likely expect to see the office sector worsen in the months ahead. - Some loans in the sector are set to mature over the next few years, which means many will get refinanced into higher interest rates. And that could spell trouble.
| | | | |  | | | | If you like this newsletter, your friends may, too! Refer your friends and get free Axios swag when they sign up. | | | | | | | | 5. 🔥 Gas stoves are a hot topic |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | Looking to ignite a conversation? Set the topic to gas stoves, and sparks will fly, Emily writes. What's happening: Axios Markets readers offered a diverse array of takes after we asked them to weigh in on gas stoves, which have been linked to respiratory problems and climate impacts. Then there was a range of more mixed comments, with several folks singing the praises of induction cooktops as a good (if pricier) alternative to gas. - "I have mixed feelings towards the ban," said Taylor Martinez, of Tampa. "I lean towards letting people do what they want with their homes, but rentals should be required to switch because it seems unseemly that a landlord can take your money and cause you health problems."
- "Pure electric stoves for me. I never set fire to my sleeves lighting my electric stove," said Peggy Quijas, Warsaw, Missouri.
- "You know how annoying people are when they tell you how wonderful induction cooking is, super precise control, heats up in a flash, easy to wipe up spills, doesn't heat up the kitchen, blah, blah? Turns out they're right," John Levine, Trumansburg, New York.
- "I have a propane stove. It works when the power is off. Also can cook on my woodstove," said longtime reader, Ralph Tieleman, of British Columbia, Canada. "Nobody has ever died in my house."
| | | | | | | | A message from Circle | | Responsible regulation, responsible competition | | | | | | | | In Davos, Circle's policy and regulatory leaders discuss cryptocurrency's global state of play. The goal: As the issuer of a leading digital dollar, Circle understands the importance of helping shape effective digital asset regulation with safety and transparency in mind. Learn more. | | | | One last thing from Matt. I felt it was only fitting to tell you that on Tuesday night I dreamed about the looming debt ceiling crisis. In it, I was lecturing former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew about why I think it might not set off an immediate financial crisis, as is sometimes suggested. (This actually is becoming my view, something I'll write about later on.) Anyway, if there are any Freudians among you, analyze away. Today's newsletter was edited by Javier E. David and copy edited by Mickey Meece. |  | | Why stop here? Let's go Pro. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters.
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