Sunday, December 11, 2022

Smart Money Update + Year in Review

Smart Money Update + Year in Review

Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy !

 

Small traders added another net 4,605 contracts of E-mini S&P 500 futures.

 

The Smart Money strategy is still on a "sell" since October.

 

When there's a sell signal, the strategy gets into bonds because they usually move in opposition.

 

That was a good bet as bonds rapidly rose 16%. The Smart Money is now beating the S&P 500.

 

Its only had two losing years: 2016 and likely this year (unless there's a sudden rush for bonds...you never know). Not bad considering it's a long-term strategy.

The Smart Money strategy showcases the fact that you can generate trading signals using non-price data.

 

2022 has seen a whirlwind of testing of new techniques using The Boss and its highly improved machine learning:

 

  • AAII Sentiment: Doesn't work
  • Index put/call data: Doesn't work
  • True Asset Pricing: Highly predictive of ETFs and inverse ETFs
  • BlackRock country ETF TAP data: Highly predictive of just about everything
  • Long/short strategies on individual large cap stocks using the BlackRock TAP data
  • Massive multi-strategy testing: We're getting near 100% winning months
  • The introduction of 19 Instant Start templates to build strategies faster than a cheetah on roller skates

After building around 100 solid strategies this year, I can tell you one thing that rarely gets selected:

 

Volume.

 

I've only seen it selected once on a Bit-coin strategy (trading GBTC).

 

The key is to only make a trade if volume is rising from a few months ago.

 

That basically meant there were very few trades in 2022.

 

GBTC gave me another lesson: Watch out for funds that stop redemptions.

 

Becoming a closed-end fund changed the character of GBTC.

 

The lesson I can convey to you is to diversify between several strategies.

 

That's really the Holy Grail of consistent trading.

 

You'll also notice that I'm providing more evidence that these techniques work by showing member's brokerage statements.

 

That's something we'll be doing more of as we get into 2023.

 

Some of our members are also going into money management and are being audited by a 3rd party tracking service.

 

Here's an example:

2023 is shaping up to be another year of new discoveries.

 

But I'll tell you one thing I'm not getting into...

 

Behind the scenes, I had done some inquiries into directly trading cryp-to.

 

But when I looked into it, I noticed some terrible problems with the so-called stablecoins.

 

I'm referring to Tether, the largest stable coin that has been skipping out on audits for years.

 

I wrote a blog post about them awhile back: "They invest in hookers and blow for all I know."

 

I was close: Apparently that's what they were doing over at the now defunct FTX.

 

Bottom line: I believe Tether is a possible Black Swan. There are major red flags.

 

I don't EVER expect an audit because intelligence agencies are involved. Allegedly.

 

When the tide goes out (like it is now), you get to see who's been money laundering and running a Ponzi scheme. Allegedly.

 

OK, that's it from me for now. Miracle of miracles, the flu came back after a two-year absence. It must have been those masks! Although the 'rona and flu are about the same size particles. Hmmm. 🤔

Trade smart,

 

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio Boss, Inc.

260 Newport Center Dr, Suite 100 Newport Beach, CA 92660

 

About us: Created by our founder, Dan Murphy, Portfolio Boss 1.0 was released in 2014 as an alternative to mainstream back testing software. Although it was slow and clunky at first, it quickly grew because it offered scientific testing on large baskets of stocks and ETFs, including a ranking engine, and used a simple drag and drop strategy builder. No programming required. Also helping matters was the release of the popular report, The Relaxed Investor, with over 500,000 downloads and counting. Inside its pages laid the foundation for rotational investing, proven since 1926. Portfolio Boss quickly morphed into a multi-strategy trading machine with completely new concepts such as strategy stacking, spigoting, and meta-strategic trading. After years of development, Portfolio Boss morphed once again into the first automated A.I strategy builder with massive parallel cloud computing available to the public. With over 3,500 computer cores, "The Boss" was born. Not only can it invent trading strategies using human-made indicators, it also programs itself using C code. Currently, The Boss has been running for over 1900 years of compute time. Starting in 2022, The Boss was updated to include uncommon data such as fund flows and True Asset Pricing to improve strategies by a factor of 18x to 36x over indexing. What's next? Intraday trading and automation for starters. Our goal is to provide hedge fund level A.I tools for everyday kitchen counter traders.

 

Don't want to stay in the loop with Dan? We'll be sad to see you go, but you can unsub to no longer receive emails.

 

Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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