🤫 Trump, the underdog

Plus: GOP leadership under siege | Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Instagram   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Nov 15, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,047 words ... 4 minutes.     1 big thing: Trump, the underdog Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images   Former President Trump is expected to formally launch his 2024 comeback bid tonight at the weakest moment of his political career, testing if his old Teflon suit can protect him — one more time — from the GOP's circular firing squad, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: Trump relishes being the underdog. But unlike his first run, the former president finds himself tarnished by Republican losses in three consecutive elections, plummeting internal support, the emergence of a popular GOP alternative and the threat of numerous criminal investigations. Driving the news: At least six private and public polls conducted since the midterms have placed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis comfortably ahead of Trump in a hypothetical 2024 primary, including in key early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. The latest is a poll conducted by Seven Letter Insight, a bipartisan strategic communications firm, which shows DeSantis leading Trump by eight points among Republicans. DeSantis responded to Trump's escalating criticism of his potential candidacy for the first time today, telling reporters: "[A]t the end of the day, I would just tell people to go check out the scoreboard from last Tuesday night." The big picture: At an annual meeting of the Republican Governors Association this morning, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie declared he was tired of losing and identified Trump as the one constant weighing Republicans down over three straight elections, Axios first reported. Trump famously declared on the campaign trail in 2016 that Republicans would "win so much, you're going to get tired of winning." The GOP swept into power that year, but went on to lose the House in 2018, lose the Senate and presidency in 2020, and barely retake the House in 2022 despite historical tailwinds. The intrigue: The biggest threat to Trump's chances of returning to power may not be a political one. The Justice Department and Fulton County district attorney are no longer shackled by proximity to the midterms, paving the way for an acceleration of their investigations into Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election and handling of classified documents. In New York, longtime Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg took the witness stand today in the criminal tax fraud trial against the company — hours before Trump was set to make his presidential announcement. The bottom line: Trump is already leaning into the underdog narrative, including by downsizing his campaign staff to have it resemble his scrappy 2016 team. But his 2016 Hail Mary offense — captured by his famous "What do you have to lose?" line — will be countered with one word from Democrats: "democracy." Share this story.     2. 🔥 GOP leadership under siege Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images   Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have been drawn into battles for control over their respective conferences, inflaming a GOP civil war that's getting uglier by the hour, Axios' Alayna Treene and Andrew Solender report. In the Senate, Republican campaign chief Rick Scott (R-Fla.) announced plans to challenge McConnell in an extremely tense, closed-door lunch this afternoon. Several senators — including Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) — got involved in the crossfire to defend McConnell, multiple sources familiar with the lunch tell Axios. What we're hearing: Scott had been privately considering challenging McConnell for weeks now, long before Republicans' underwhelming performance in the midterm, two people close to the senator tell Axios. The bad blood between Scott and McConnell is no secret, but the tension reached a fever pitch in the days leading up to and following last Tuesday. McConnell allies — such as Senate Leadership Fund president Steven Law and former McConnell chief of staff Josh Holmes — openly attacked Scott's leadership of the NRSC today. What's next: The full Senate GOP conference will meet at 9:30am ET tomorrow in the old Senate chamber to discuss the situation further. If a senator puts forward a motion to delay the leadership elections — which some have already called for until after the Georgia Senate runoff in early December — the full conference will have to vote on it. So far, Sens. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) have said they plan to support Scott's challenge. McConnell insists he has the votes to win. In the House, McCarthy easily prevailed over former Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) for the GOP's nomination for House speaker, winning by a lopsided 188-31 margin. But each of those 31 votes is another member McCarthy will have to coax to his side by Jan. 3, when just a handful of GOP defections could prevent him from reaching the 218-vote threshold needed to be elected speaker. McCarthy will spend the coming weeks courting the far-right flank of the conference, a process that could involve making some serious concessions in order to secure their votes in the new year. "We've got our work cut out for us," McCarthy said during a press conference after the vote. "We're going to have a small majority, we've got to listen to everyone in our conference." Share this story.     3. 🏭 First look: Biden trolls Trump Screenshot: "The Record"   The White House is choosing the same night as Trump's expected announcement to launch a new webpage highlighting manufacturing among President Biden's big legislative wins, Axios' Sophia Cai has learned. Why it matters: The timing and topics are no coincidence, but rather a preview of Biden's affirmative case for his own second term in 2024. The messaging, according to screenshots obtained by Axios, says Biden's presidency has yielded a "manufacturing boom" and the creation of 700,000 jobs since the passage of a major chips funding bill. It's an argument with some resonance in swing states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, where Democrats clinched wins in key races up and down the ballot. Share this story ... See the website.     A message from Instagram Explore 30+ Instagram tools helping teens have positive experiences     Instagram's tools can help parents keep their teens safe on social media, help teens see less sensitive content and help them spend less time on our platform. Because teens' experiences on Instagram should be positive and supportive. Explore our tools and set them up today.     4. 🇵🇱 NATO bookmark: Article 4 Biden, still in Indonesia for the G20, speaks with Duda as Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and national security adviser Jake Sullivan listen in. Photo via Twitter President Biden spoke with Polish President Andrzej Duda tonight after Poland alleged a "Russian-made missile" killed two people near Poland's border with Ukraine. Poland has requested NATO consultations under Article 4, which allows any member to raise security concerns with the alliance. Article 5 — the more famous NATO clause that would trigger collective defense — is not currently a serious consideration.     A message from Instagram Set up supervision on Instagram to help keep your teen safe online     Parents have support when it comes to keeping their teens safe on Instagram. They can see who their teen follows, who follows them and any reports their teen shares once supervision on Family Center is set up. Explore Family Center and set it up today.   📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: