| The Axios politics team spent today checking in with top sources and campaign gurus to get a sense of the under-the-radar signals and hot hunches each side is monitoring as results roll in tonight. - Both Democrats and Republicans agree toss-up House races in Virginia will be a top early bellwether, with the fates of Democratic Reps. Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria likely signaling the size of a potential GOP wave.
What we're watching: Steven Law, CEO of the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund and American Crossroads, told Axios' Alayna Treene that the Senate race in Washington state is one of his groups' less obvious — but important — barometers. - A PAC supported by SLF spent $1.5 million on ads attacking Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) in the final week of the campaign, seeing signs that her race against Republican Tiffany Smiley was narrowing in deep-blue Washington.
Doug Sosnik, political director for former President Clinton, told Axios' Alexi McCammond that a defeat for Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire will likely mean Republicans pick up three Senate seats — a catastrophe for Democrats. Liz Shuler, president of the AFL-CIO, told Alexi her hot hunch is that Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) will fare better against Republican Adam Laxalt than the polls suggest, citing a massive labor turnout machine that has been "very focused on kitchen-table issues that matter to workers." Kevin McGlaughlin, former executive director of the NRCC, told Axios' Hans Nichols: "If Herschel Walker is even close to winning [in Georgia's Senate race] without a runoff after Sen. Warnock spent $175 million over the last two cycles, Republicans should be in for a good night." Data for Progress, a left-wing think tank, told Axios' Andrew Solender that they're keeping a tight eye on the candidates that might "overperform fundamentals" — like Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Rep. Jared Golden in Maine, or Tim Ryan in Ohio's Senate race — who can offer Democrats a model for "the type of disciplined, targeted campaigns we need for a tough 2024 map." Patrick Gaspard, head of the Center for American Progress, told Alexi that Native voters are positioned to have "unprecedented influence" and could prove "decisive" for Democrats in hotly contested gubernatorial elections in Oklahoma and New Mexico, statewide offices in Arizona, and Alaska's at-large U.S. House race. Tom Davis, former NRCC chair, told Hans: "The political scientist V.O. Key used to say, 'Voters aren't stupid, they just aren't informed. And they know when the shoe is pinching.' And I think that's where voters are." | 
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