GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, October 4, where receipts still reign. WEIGHING WAYS AND MEANS — A three-way race to lead the House's powerful taxation panel, if Republicans take the House, is not as clear cut as one candidate would like everyone to believe. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) could have the votes to take the top GOP spot on the Ways and Means Committee, but a pair of Smiths — Reps. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) don't appreciate the insinuation that the race is locked up. Olivia spoke to more than two dozen of the current members of the roughly 30-member House Steering Committee about who they support, granting anonymity so lawmakers could speak frankly. That whip count shows the three-way race has no guaranteed winner; one Steering member said the dynamics have "shifted significantly." Adrian Smith, who is known as more of a policy wonk, looks to be further behind the other two. "We knew early on, whenever we got in the race, that no one had it locked up," Jason Smith said in an interview. "And the reporting early on said that it was a lock for Vern and we knew that it wasn't, and I feel comfortable where we're at." Among the members who were willing to answer, the results suggest Buchanan and Jason Smith will be going head-to-head, with three main groups in the mix: Buchanan supporters, anti-Buchanan voters and those who are still undecided or declining to answer. Olivia has much more on the dynamics of the race, why some folks are waiting for McCarthy to weigh in and what it all means. PUTTING MONEY WHERE THE MODERATION IS — David Nierenberg, one-time finance chief for then-GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney is dropping big dough on… a Democrat. When moderate Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) lost her primary in August, Nierenberg wasn't willing to back Trump-backed far-right Republican Joe Kent, who toppled her. "I immediately went to work," Nierenberg told Natalie Fertig. "And I think I've now transformed myself from Jaime's largest bundler to Marie's." That's Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. The race gives a critical look at the fight to capture moderate Republican voters and what is happening to once-loyal Republicans as the party continues its transformation in Trump's image. Natalie has more: Key GOP donor backs Dem after House Republican ousted over Trump impeachment CASH DEFENSE — In the two states where the most intense Senate midterm battles are playing out, Democrats are counting on cash to help them keep their seats. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), reported raising $26.3 million and has about $13.7 million cash on hand in the third quarter of this year. That's up from Q2, when he raised $17.2 million, and Q1, when he raised $13.6 million. In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto raised $15 million and has about $5 million cash on hand. The fundraising is a new Nevada record, according to the campaign. Cortez Masto raised $20 million for the entire 2016 election. JAYPAL'S BID — If Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Primila Jayapal (D-Wash.) runs for a leadership slot, and wins, she says she'd give up her role leading House progressives. "I would have to choose one or the other" if we got to that point, she told reporters on a press call Monday. The Progressive Caucus holds its leadership elections after the Democratic Caucus settles theirs, so she'd be able to see how things play out. FAT BEAR WEEK EVE — That's right. Fat Bear Week starts tomorrow and runs through Oct. 11. The delightful annual competition tracks the brown bears of Katmai National Park and Preserve in Alaska who are gorging on salmon to pack on the pounds before winter. You can watch them on the bear cams. You can vote for them. There's a bracket of 12 brown bears for a single-elimination tournament determined by fans' votes for who's doing the best to beef up for winter hibernation. Some Huddle readers (and their bosses) are in the fight of their political lives, so why not take some joy in bears just doing their best? The team at the Congressional Management Foundation are already in deep, with a bracket pool in the works and a prize already set for whoever picks the ultimate Fat Bear Week champ. If your colleagues have the bear cams up instead of CSPAN or are doing brackets, let Huddle know. Why Fat Bear Week? Because it's great. Your Huddle Host has been a fan for years and likes to spread some good, wholesome competition and fun. WaPo has a whole explainer on the phenomenon. QUICK LINKS Biden administration falls 80% short of 2022 refugee admissions target, from Camilo Montoya-Galvez at CBS News ICYMI: Lawmakers Confront a Rise in Threats and Intimidation, and Fear Worse, from Stephanie Lai, Luke Broadwater and Carl Hulse at The New York Times TRANSITIONS Kara Zupkus is now Communications Director for Representative Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas). Zupkus previously was national spokeswoman for the Young America's Foundation.
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