| | | | |  | | By Calder McHugh | | 
Herschel Walker speaks to media at a campaign event. | Megan Varner/Getty Images | ELECTION BOMBSHELL — Stunning reports came to light in the Georgia and Pennsylvania Senate races this week — "October surprise" stories that could affect the outcome in two of the most important contests in the battle for control of the Senate. In Georgia, GOP abortion rights opponent Herschel Walker reportedly paid for a girlfriend's abortion — a damaging revelation exacerbated by his son's subsequent social media posts denouncing his father as a liar. (POLITICO has not independently confirmed this reporting from The Daily Beast and Walker has denied the allegation.) In Pennsylvania, Jezebel reported that Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz led a research team that conducted science experiments which resulted in the death of over 300 dogs. When asked for a response to the reporting by Newsweek, an Oz campaign spokesperson said, "Only the idiots at Newsweek believe what they read at Jezebel." With the GOP needing to net just one seat to win control of the Senate and a handful of races — including Georgia and Pennsylvania — on a knife's edge, according to POLITICO's Senate Forecast, these developments have rattled the election landscape with just five weeks to go before Election Day. To learn more and put these stories in context, Nightly chatted with POLITICO's senior campaign and elections editor and chief polling analyst Steve Shepard. How damaging are these stories for the Walker and Oz campaigns? The short answer is: It's too soon to say. The slightly longer answer is: It's too soon to say, but probably not that damaging. In our polarized, calcified politics, these types of September or October surprises just don't move the needle that much. And while the details in these stories are new, they reinforce what voters have already heard for months about both men: Walker has a disturbing relationship history with women and his children, and Oz's touting of phony miracle cures has tarnished his medical reputation outside the operating room. So based on that, is this more a matter of October surprises mattering less than they used to, no matter the context of the race, because of increased polarization? Or is it that these specific scandals might be more likely to reinforce voters' prior impressions? It's probably some of both, though I would lean toward the former. Just two years ago, Democrat Cal Cunningham's [North Carolina] Senate campaign was jolted by the revelation of an affair at almost this precise point in the race. Cunningham had campaigned as a family man, so the affair significantly upended his image. When the story broke, Cunningham had a 6-point lead in the RealClearPolitics [polling] average. By the end, Cunningham's lead was cut in half — though in another failure for public polling, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis won reelection by 2 points. Two reasons why I'm skeptical that the disclosure of the affair tanked Cunningham's chances: his very slight drop in the polls, and the fact that President Joe Biden lost North Carolina by a similar margin. Even if Cunningham matched Biden's vote share, he would've lost to Tillis.
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Dr. Mehmet Oz at a press conference. | Mark Makela/Getty Images | In the case of Walker, Republicans appear to be doubling down today. What do they hope to gain from this strategy of rallying behind him? Control of the Senate on Jan. 3, 2023. That's a glib answer, but the math for Republicans is very simple. In all likelihood, they need to win three of the four races I have rated as "Toss-Ups" in our Election Forecast: Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Walker loses, and Oz does, too, then Republicans' path to a Senate majority would necessitate winning at least one of the "Lean Democratic" states — Arizona, Colorado or New Hampshire — where Democrats have an advantage. It's just much more difficult without Georgia — where, up to this point, Walker was already running neck-and-neck with the incumbent, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. And they think that backing him strongly, along with his straight denial, is the best and only strategy to get him across the finish line? I think that's self-evident. Cutting him loose isn't an option. But even if it was, it would be a signal to a lot of the Republican-leaning voters Walker needs — I'm thinking the types who actually like that GOP Gov. Brian Kemp rebuffed then-President Donald Trump's efforts to steal the 2020 election — that they shouldn't stick by Walker either. Can you give us a sense, with a wider aperture than just Georgia and Pennsylvania, of just how close this race for control of the Senate is? What is the state of play after this latest news, and where we could see tipping points or surprises? Well, that's the thing: Scandals don't have to change the race much to have a huge impact. Georgia and Pennsylvania are two of our "Toss-Up" races, so they're obviously close. As is the race for Senate control. It's really anyone's ballgame at this point. So, yes, a point or two in these two races could be the difference between Chuck Schumer or Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A Senate that will confirm Biden's nominees, or one that won't. But consider me skeptical that these stories are definitively going to lead to those kinds of changes in these races. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | | | 47 percent The percentage of likely voters in GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert's Colorado district who support her reelection, according to a new poll from Keating Research , a Democratic pollster. Her opponent, Democrat Adam Frisch, has the support of 45 percent. This represents a 5-point swing toward Frisch since the same pollster conducted a survey in July, and Boebert's 2-point lead falls within the margin of error, making it a statistical tie. | | | | | — Trump asks Supreme Court to intervene in Mar-a-Lago documents case: Trump is asking the Supreme Court to intervene in the fight over records the FBI seized from his Florida home as part of an investigation into alleged retention of classified information, theft of government documents and obstruction of justice. Lawyers for Trump asked Justice Clarence Thomas today to issue an emergency order that would restore an outside reviewer's authority over about 100 documents found at Mar-a-Lago with classification markings during the Aug. 8 search. — High court seems chilly to 'race neutral' reading of Voting Rights Act: A majority of the Supreme Court declined today to embrace an argument advanced by Alabama calling for a "race neutral" reading of a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. But the justices nonetheless signaled that there could be changes coming to the enforcement of the landmark 1965 legislation. Most of the court's justices appeared skeptical of the state's broadest arguments about looking at the law through a race-neutral lens. — Storm-battered Florida may need major election fixes before November: Less than six weeks before Election Day, Florida officials are poised to engineer a major rewiring of the midterm elections as the state continues to face the devastating effects of Hurricane Ian. Widespread damage caused by the storm is leading to a litany of potential problems, ranging from a lack of functional polling sites to a potential shortage of workers on Election Day. The last day to register to vote is Oct. 11, a week away, while early voting is scheduled to begin in many southwest Florida counties on Oct. 24. — Texts, recordings show Oath Keepers' early talk of armed resistance to Biden presidency: Within hours of the 2020 election being called for Biden, Stewart Rhodes — leader of the far-right Oath Keepers — began barraging associates with a consistent message: We must pressure Trump to take extraordinary steps to remain in power. The messages underscore that well before Trump had planned any actions to disrupt the transfer of power on Jan. 6, 2021, Rhodes was rallying supporters to oppose the incoming Biden administration and referencing potential armed action to prevent the new administration from taking power.
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British Prime Minister Liz Truss on day three of the Conservative Party annual conference. | Stefan Rousseau - WPA Pool/Getty Images | MUTINY — Less than a month into Liz Truss' turbulent time as U.K. prime minister, her top colleagues are publicly questioning her approach, writes Emilio Casalicchio. Cabinet ministers have been openly urging Truss, whose party is gathering in Birmingham for its annual conference, to hike the value of welfare benefits, just a day after it was forced into a major U-turn over a controversial tax cut. Meanwhile, Trade Minister Conor Burns suggested Truss prioritized presentation over substance while also praising Secretary of State for Internal Trade Kemi Badenoch. Speaking at a fringe event during the Conservative conference, Burns said there was "not a huge amount of good news that is going to be emanating from the government in the coming months." He also took more direct aim at Truss, who became famous for her optimistic social media presence during her time as trade secretary under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. "Kemi totally gets that trade needs to move beyond Instagram posts about free trade agreements and needs to actually focus on delivering for companies the support to unleash the potential that the free trade agreements open up," he said.
| | | | | $410 million The amount of money that gambling interests (card rooms, online sports betting companies, California tribes) have spent on advocacy for two sports betting propositions set to appear on the ballot in California this November. | | | | | GREEN THUMB — Should we be composting humans? "Natural organic reduction" is a new process that is a new form, or type, of burial . It uses human remains in soil growth. And it's catching on. Read about it from Eleanor Cummins in WIRED.
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