Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Herschel Walker rushes to defuse abortion bombshell

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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Herschel Walker speaks into a microphone with his hand out in front of a Hershel for Senate sign.

Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker promised Monday night that he would file a lawsuit this morning against The Daily Beast, after the website's Roger Sollenberger reported that Walker paid for an ex-girlfriend's abortion in 2009. | Megan Varner/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY
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MIDTERM FORECAST UPDATE — Our campaign guru Steve Shepard shifted POLITICO Election Forecast ratings for 23 House and governor races in a column sent to Campaign Pro subscribers Monday night. That so many races are in flux isn't necessarily surprising with Election Day just five weeks away. What is surprising is how those 23 races are shifting: Twelve went toward Republican candidates, while 11 went toward Democrats.

Typically by this time in the election cycle, the national environment begins to crystallize and contests begin to move in tandem toward one party. Not so this time. For instance, Steve is moving a toss-up race toward GOP candidate JEN KIGGANS in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District based on her strong campaign against Democratic Rep. ELAINE LURIA, but he's moving Rep. SHARICE DAVIDS' reelection bid in Kansas' 3rd District to lean Democratic, based on the potency of the abortion issue in the Kansas City suburbs.

Other new ratings: Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP's reelection campaign moves from toss-up to lean Republican. … Two Oregon House races move from likely Democratic to lean Democratic. … Reps. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) and ANNIE KUSTER (D-N.H.) gain security, moving from toss-up to lean Democratic, while Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) shifts from lean Republican to toss-up.

Steve tells Playbook: "It's undoubtedly unusual to have nearly equal numbers of races moving in each direction, but it underscores some of the big themes of this unique midterm: GOP candidates who stretch the realms of electability (Ohio-09), crime as an ascendant issue (Oregon), the role of abortion access (Kansas-03)."

The bottom line for the House: POLITICO forecasts that 211 seats now at least lean toward Republicans, while 198 lean toward Democrats. Another 26 districts are toss-ups.

See more in our daily 2022 section below.

WALKER CAMPAIGN IN CRISIS — Georgia Republican Senate candidate HERSCHEL WALKER promised Monday night that he would file a lawsuit this morning against The Daily Beast, after the website's Roger Sollenberger reported that Walker paid for an ex-girlfriend's abortion in 2009.

The woman, who was not identified, provided Sollenberger with a receipt for the procedure, a get-well card signed by Walker and an image of a personal check signed by Walker for $700. The Beast reported also that it corroborated the woman's claims with a close friend who took care of her after the procedure.

The explosive report could shake up Walker's closely contested race against Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.), one that has tightened to the low single digits in recent polls. While other Republicans have avoided talking about abortion restrictions recently, Walker has leaned into the issue. He endorsed Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM's (R-S.C.) proposed 15-week national ban, which other Republicans have run away from, and he has repeatedly said he favors a total national ban on abortion, including in cases of rape, incest and when the life of the mother is threatened.

From the story: "Asked if Walker ever expressed regret for the decision, the woman said Walker never had. Asked why she came forward, the woman pointed to Walker's hardline anti-abortion position. 'I just can't with the hypocrisy anymore,' she said. 'We all deserve better.'"

Walker denied the Beast's report in the "strongest possible terms," calling the story "flat-out lie" in a statement.

Things got uglier when Walker's 23-year-old son, conservative TikTok influencer CHRISTIAN WALKER, interrupted the stream of RON DeSANTIS praise on his Twitter account with a flurry of attacks on his dad:

— "I know my mom and I would really appreciate if my father Herschel Walker stopped lying and making a mockery of us," he tweeted. "You're not a 'family man' when you left us to bang a bunch of women, threatened to kill us, and had us move over 6 times in 6 months running from your violence."

— "I don't care about someone who has a bad past and takes accountability," he added. "But how DARE YOU LIE and act as though you're some 'moral, Christian, upright man.' You've lived a life of DESTROYING other peoples lives. How dare you."

"I LOVE my son no matter what," the candidate tweeted in response.

Later, on Fox News's "Hannity," Walker said, "I never asked anyone to get an abortion. I never paid for an abortion, and it's a lie." Asked about the check, Walker said, "I send money to a lot of people."

While the NRSC released a statement standing by their candidate, others on the right are expressing doubts that Walker will be able to bluster his way through this: "I'll see what sort of response he mounts, but given text messages tonight, Georgia GOP'ers are praying for Dr. Oz to win," Georgia-based conservative pundit ERICK ERICKSON tweeted Monday night. "Walker hasn't mounted a good response to any attack, and this is brutal, probably a KO."

The promised lawsuit could provide further clues about what trajectory this story will take. Will it provide new claims undermining the Daily Beast's reporting? Or will it amount to a docketed press release? Or will it be filed at all?

Warnock had this to say in a gaggle last night after an event in Atlanta: "I'll let the pundits decide how they think it will impact the race. But I have been consistent in my view that a patient's room is too narrow and cramped for space for a woman and the government. My view on that has not changed."

The two are set to meet for their only debate Oct. 14 in Savannah.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your hottest Herschel Walker takes: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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a logo that reads 2022 ELECTIONS

It's that time of the year: Triage season. The two parties are surveying the midterm battlefield and making final spending decisions. Should they place bets on stretch races? Or should they focus on core priorities and protect current officeholders?

Any miscalculation could look like a big embarrassing waste of money after Nov. 8. (Remember when the Hillary Clinton campaign spent money on ads in Texas in October 2016?) But sometimes modest, late investments can have a big payoff.

For Democrats, this cycle's hand-wringing is centered on North Carolina's open Senate seat, Marianne LeVine reports this morning. State Dems think CHERI BEASLEY has a shot to win over Rep. TED BUDD, with polls showing a near-tied race. But the national party — which protects incumbents first — has so far been reluctant to spend precious resources there. GOP ad buys in the state have nearly doubled Democratic buys.

Rep. DAVID PRICE (D-N.C.) tells Marianne , "I've certainly weighed in with the people who control such things, and I think our whole delegation has. There's a real case to be made, and we're trying to make it."

The big caveat: "North Carolina has eluded Democrats for the past four Senate races. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat there was Sen. KAY HAGAN (D-N.C.) in 2008, and both POLITICO and the Cook Political Report rate the current North Carolina race as 'lean GOP.'"

BIG PICTURE

THREAT ASSESSMENT, PART I — Even as our voting systems have gotten more secure in recent decades, the wave of voter fraud conspiracy theories and political threats to election officials portend a dark future, The Atlantic's Tim Alberta reports . "The great threat is no longer machines malfunctioning or ballots being spoiled. It is the actual theft of an election," he writes. "This makes for a terrifying scenario in 2024—but first, a crucial test in 2022," perhaps the last opportunity to stop 2020 election deniers from controlling future elections.

THREAT ASSESSMENT, PART II — The prospect of an insider threat from poll workers themselves tampering with election infrastructure is growing as a November worry, especially in Michigan, Zach Montellaro reports. "Current and former officials expressed concerns about there being an organized effort by partisan groups to recruit and push people into those positions, because their responsibility should be to report to professional election staff."

THREAT ASSESSMENT, PART III — A DHS briefing Monday warned that challenges to the election in November could range from foreign disinformation changes to violence against poll workers, per WSJ's Aruna Viswanatha and Dustin Volz. Despite a panoply of risks, disinformation and higher-than-ever harassment of election officials, the administration "hasn't seen foreign actors specifically target U.S. election systems with cyber operations this year as they have done during past cycles."

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE

HOW DEMOCRATS COULD LOSE — Nevada is worrying Democrats, who think they could lose the Senate race, the gubernatorial race and three House seats if things break for the GOP, NYT's Jennifer Medina and Jonathan Weisman report in a tough story for Dems from Las Vegas.

LAB REPORT — Pennsylvania GOP nominee MEHMET OZ's research team at Columbia over the course of decades killed 329 dogs, 661 rabbits and rodents, and 31 pigs, Jezebel's Kylie Cheung reveals. A whistleblower "detailed extensive suffering inflicted on his team's canine test subjects, including multiple violations of the Animal Welfare Act" in the early 2000s.

CASH DASH — Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.) raised a staggering $26.3 million in the third quarter and finished with $13.7 million on hand, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.) raised more than $15 million and has about $5 million on hand, per The Nevada Independent.

NERVES OF THIEL — Billionaire PETER THIEL is reportedly feeling good about his protege J.D. VANCE's chances in Ohio and refocusing his efforts on getting his other protege BLAKE MASTERS across the finish line in Arizona, CNBC's Brian Schwartz reports.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

DONOR DIGEST — DAVID NIERENBERG, a prominent centrist donor who was a big backer of Rep. JAIME HERRERA BEUTLER (R-Wash.), is switching teams to back Democrat MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ after far-right JOE KENT elbowed Herrera Beutler out in the primary, Natalie Fertig reports.

BATTLE FOR THE STATES

DOWN BALLOT — The Atlantic's Russell Berman digs into the States Project's efforts to flip state legislatures to Democrats.

ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — STEVE and CONNIE BALLMER are spending $500,000 to support a California ballot proposition protecting abortion rights, per Puck's Teddy Schleifer.

— Who's not ponying up: LA mayoral contender RICK CARUSO said he'd donate $1 million to support the effort, but he hasn't spent it yet, the L.A. Times' Julia Wick reports.

OFF THE DEEP END — Minnesota GOP gubernatorial nominee SCOTT JENSEN repeated a baseless internet conspiracy theory/hoax last week, per CNN's Andrew Kaczynski : "Why do we have litter boxes in some of the school districts so kids can pee in them, because they identify as a furry?"

HOT POLLS

— Florida: Spectrum News/Siena College have good results for Republicans: Gov. RON DeSANTIS and Sen. MARCO RUBIO are at 49% and 48%, respectively, compared to 41% each for their Democratic challengers, Reps. CHARLIE CRIST and VAL DEMINGS. 

— New Jersey: Democratic Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI's internal poll has him even with TOM KEAN JR. at 48% each.

HOT ADS

With help from Steve Shepard

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Last week, we covered some of the back-and-forth drama over the (it turns out mistaken) use of a different name in an old clip of New Mexico Democratic congressional nominee GABE VASQUEZ talking about police. But a new TV ad out today from Congressional Leadership Fund highlights the real political vulnerability from the clip: the substance of his comments. "It's not just about defunding the police, it's about defunding a system," they quote him saying — and then repeat it for good measure.

— Pennsylvania: GOP gubernatorial candidate DOUG MASTRIANO is out this morning with his first ads of the general election, which tout his Army service. According to AdImpact, the ads are only running so far in Harrisburg and Pittsburgh (not Philadelphia).

— Michigan: Though GOP gubernatorial nominee TUDOR DIXON hasn't aired television ads this fall, the Detroit News' Craig Mauger shares a jaw-dropping ad on her behalf from the Gratiot County GOP.

— Louisiana: One way to get attention: Longshot Democratic House contender KATIE DARLING has a new ad that shows her giving birth.

 

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PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN'S TUESDAY:

10:15 a.m.: The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief.

Noon: Biden and Harris will have lunch.

3:30 p.m.: Biden and Harris will attend and speak at the second meeting of the Task Force on Reproductive Healthcare Access in the State Dining Room, along with HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA, Education Secretary MIGUEL CARDONA, VA Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH, OMB Director SHALANDA YOUNG and Office of Science and Technology Policy Director ARATI PRABHAKAR.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1 p.m.

HARRIS' TUESDAY — The VP will also speak at the Freedman's Bank Forum at Treasury at 11:25 a.m.

THE SENATE and THE HOUSE are out.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 03:  A spray painted sign reads

A spray painted sign reads "Floridian Strong" among debris in the wake of Hurricane Ian on Oct. 3, 2022, in Fort Myers, Fla. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE NEXT TRANCHE — Four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems will be included in a $625 million package of U.S. military aid for Ukraine set to be announced today, along with ammunition and other equipment, AP's Lolita Baldor and Matthew Lee report. "The decision marks the first time the U.S. has sent more HIMARS to Ukraine since late July."

THE VIEW FROM LANGLEY — Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN can be "quite dangerous and reckless" when he "feels his back against the wall," CIA Director BILL BURNS told CBS' Norah O'Donnell. Burns also weighed in on Putin's "flawed assumptions" about Ukraine, how the war's turning tide has changed China's views and U.S. support for the protests in Iran.

THE VIEW FROM THE PENTAGON — Despite Ukraine's advances, U.S. officials are still cautious to predict major successes ahead, Lara Seligman reports. "Kyiv's most recent gains should not be overstated, and … Russian forces are holding steady in other areas such as nearby Bakhmut, in the Donetsk." Lots of difficult fighting lies ahead.

ABOUT THAT NUKE THREAT — NYT's David Sanger : "For all his threats to fire tactical nuclear arms at Ukrainian targets, [Putin] is now discovering what the United States itself concluded years ago, American officials suspect: Small nuclear weapons are hard to use, harder to control and a far better weapon of terror and intimidation than a weapon of war."

— More from Bloomberg: "In Putin's Nuclear Brinksmanship, Weapons Leave Room For Warning"

THE WHITE HOUSE

HE'S RUNNING — Biden told Rev. AL SHARPTON last month that he'll run for a second term in 2024, NBC's Jonathan Allen scooped . "Biden told Sharpton he was right that he was among the first to know about the 2020 bid. Then he told Sharpton he was going to 'do it again,' Sharpton told his aides."

POTUS ON THE ROAD — Biden went to Puerto Rico on Monday to tour damage from Hurricane Fiona, announcing $60 million in relief and preparedness funding from the bipartisan infrastructure law, Myah Ward and Chris Cadelago report from Ponce. He also met with residents and local leaders and vowed, "We are going to make sure you get every single dollar promised."

100 DAYS SINCE DOBBS The White House is marking a key milestone since the end of Roe v. Wade by rolling out two new actions meant to preserve reproductive health care access for women, while also attacking GOP attempts to restrict abortion nationally and in the states. A new memo from JENNIFER KLEIN, director of the White House Gender Policy Council, details new Title IX guidance for universities and new HHS grants "to protect and expand access to reproductive health care and improve service delivery, promote the adoption of healthy behaviors, and reduce existing health disparities."

More: "Biden wants to use Medicaid to address abortion 'crisis.' States aren't biting," by Megan Messerly … "White House set to highlight Republican-led abortion restrictions in 100 days since Roe was overturned," ABC

CONGRESS

2023 DREAMING — Rep. VERN BUCHANAN (R-Fla.) is facing a real challenge from Rep. JASON SMITH (R-Mo.) to become the GOP's top member on House Ways and Means this year, Olivia Beavers reports — and the race isn't in the bag yet for early frontrunner Buchanan. House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY could be consequential. "His attempts to project confidence in the race have backfired among some members — the question is how much," Olivia finds.

Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) tells NYT's Julian Barnes that he'll turn down the partisan heat if he becomes House Intelligence chair next year. "I believe that there is a hunger between both sides of the aisle — members who are national security-focused, intelligence community-focused — to get this committee back on track," Turner says. But his plans for less partisanship could face a tough reception from some Republicans on the panel.

MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT

CANNON FODDER — Early this year, Trump told his lawyer ALEX CANNON to inform the National Archives that they'd turned all over their White House documents — but Cannon didn't do so out of concern that it might not be true, WaPo's Josh Dawsey and Jacqueline Alemany scooped . Though Cannon had helped facilitate the transfer of 15 boxes of materials, he "told others he was not sure if other documents were still at the club and would be uncomfortable making such a claim."

LOVE LETTERS — The Archives told Trump's team in May 2021 that correspondence between him and KIM JONG UN was missing, Bloomberg's Jason Leopold reports from a GARY STERN email he obtained via FOIA.

"New book audio: Trump falsely claimed he gave Kim letters to Archives in 2021," CNN

 

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JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

ROCKY RHODES — In the opening statements of the seditious conspiracy trial against Oath Keepers leaders, prosecutors on Monday accused STEWART RHODES and others of taking part in a plot to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. Defense attorneys said they planned no attack and did nothing illegal, instead "waiting for Mr. Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act," per the NYT.

COMMITTEE LATEST — The House Jan. 6 committee said in a court filing Monday that JOHN EASTMAN has inappropriately prevented investigators from seeing some emails, Kyle Cheney reports. The panel "urged U.S. District Court Judge DAVID CARTER to review 562 still-unproduced documents that they say may contain material that should have been turned over to the Jan. 6 select committee months ago." The filing

— The panel's rescheduled hearing will likely happen Oct. 13, NBC reported.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

TOP-ED — "There Is Absolutely Nothing to Support the 'Independent State Legislature' Theory," by J. Michael Luttig in The Atlantic: "Such a doctrine would be antithetical to the Framers' intent, and to the text, fundamental design, and architecture of the Constitution."

SCOTUS WATCH — Josh Gerstein has an enjoyable dispatch from the first day of the Supreme Court's new term, where the dynamics among the justices were on public display after a tense summer. Justice KETANJI BROWN JACKSON was not shy about asking plenty of questions — perhaps even to the annoyance of Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS — while some neighboring justices shared friendly cross-ideological chatter. (Not Justice SAMUEL ALITO, though.) "The first arguments of the new term had a folksy tone at times, often feeling like Old Home Week."

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — The U.S. is planning new rules to restrict Chinese companies' access to crucial semiconductor technologies, coming as early as this week, per NYT's Paul Mozur, Ana Swanson and Edward Wong. "The broad expansion of what is known as the foreign direct product rule is just one part of Washington's planned restrictions. The administration is also expected to try to control the sale of cutting-edge U.S.-made tools to China's domestic semiconductor industry."

"Path uncertain for U.S.-Taiwan free trade deal despite Hill support," by Roll Call's Rachel Oswald in Taipei: "As Congress grapples with how best to support Taiwan in the years ahead against China's growing bellicosity, the one action many experts and lawmakers believe could most reduce the risk of war is one of the more politically and diplomatically difficult ones for the Biden administration to undertake."

WAR REPORT — A U.S. airstrike this weekend killed ABDULLAHI NADIR , a top al-Shabab leader in Somalia, the military said. He was a co-founder of the militant group and said to be "in line to replace the group's ailing leader," per Reuters.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

HURRICANE IAN LATEST — The death toll from the devastating storm in Florida and elsewhere now stands between 95 and 101, per the Tampa Bay Times, though more bodies may yet be discovered. CBS pegs it at 103 just in the U.S.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Patrick Jackson wore socks with his wife Ketanji Brown Jackson's likeness.

Nancy Pelosi told Stephen Colbert, "I believe that we will hold the House."

John Fetterman has emerged as the top Democratic target of Fox News's primetime hosts.

Larry Hogan is heading to New Hampshire on Thursday for an appearance at the Institute of Politics' classic "Politics & Eggs" series.

Donald Trump sued CNN for $475 million, arguing in court the network has caused him "embarrassment, pain, humiliation and mental anguish."

OUT AND ABOUT —  SPOTTED at a dinner at L'Avenue at Saks in NYC to toast MSNBC's Alex Wagner and celebrate the recent launch of "Alex Wagner Tonight": Rashida Jones, Alex Wagner, Cory Gnazzo, Chris Hayes, Greg Kordick, Jessica Kurdali, Jen Psaki, Jesse Rodriguez, Katy Tur, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Yvette Miley, Alicia Menendez, Lorie Acio, Edward Barsamian, Jelani Cobb, Joanna Coles, Radhika Jones, Olivia Nuzzi, Henry Reisch, Noah Shachtman, Dax Tejera, Tony Dokoupil, Michelle Wong, David Fiszel and Matthew Alexander.

— SPOTTED at the Shakespeare Theater Company's Much Ado About Shakespeare gala at Wolf Trap on Monday night: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Robyn and Jeremy Bash, Melissa Moss and Jonathan Silver, Karen Pierce, Stephen Breyer, Suzanne Youngkin, Karen Finney, Nick Schmit, Eric Fanning, Amy Dacey, Sophia Narrett, Jane Harman, Ali Rubin, Steve Clemons, Jonathan Kott, Doug Heye and Reg Brown.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Danielle Conley and Jonathan Su are now partners with Latham & Watkins' white collar defense and investigations practice. They were previously deputy counsels to the president.

STAFFING UP — Nina Hachigian has been named the first special representative for subnational diplomacy at the State Department. She most recently has been Los Angeles' deputy mayor for international affairs.

TRANSITIONS — Robert Dow Jr. will be the next counselor/chief of staff to Justice John Roberts. He currently is a judge on the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois. … Kara Zupkus is now comms director for Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas). She previously was national spokeswoman for the Young America's Foundation. … Patrick Delaney is joining Walmart as director of federal government affairs. He previously was director of external affairs for the Senate Agriculture Committee.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Robert Draper, contributing writer for the NYT Magazine and National Geographic, and Kirsten Powers, a senior political analyst at CNN, got married Saturday at Primrose in Brookland. They met at Faith Angle Forum in November 2015 and started dating the week after. Pic Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) (4-0) and Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) … Katie MillerNorm Pearlstine (8-0) … Brynne Craig … CNN's Pervaiz Shallwani … AP's Holly RamerKelsi Daniell of Sen. Joni Ernst's (R-Iowa) office … ABC's Santina Leuci Bill GraySean HackbarthDrew Willison … National Journal's Brian Dabbs Steve CapusPete DavisTim SparapaniAndrew Jay Schwartzman … EY's Ryan DonmoyerFrancis Kruszewski of the American Cleaning Institute … Duke University's Chris SimmonsMelvin Steinberg … former Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.) … former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel … retired Navy Adm. Mike MullenJosh Rothstein … BBC's Kasia MaderaDane WatersPaul Seymour … WaPo's Rachel Siegel Rob Shapiro Megha Bhattacharya of the White House … Joe Bush of Sen. Jacky Rosen's (D-Nev.) office … Melanie Meyers Shil Patel of Sen. Thom Tillis' (R-N.C.) office … Wes McClelland of Franklin Square Group … Todd Malan Bridget Reed Morawski

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