| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Tuesday. New poll out — There's been a flurry of newly-released polls, including one about the U.S. Senate race in Florida where Sen. Marco Rubio holds his lead over Rep. Val Demings. Rubio still out front — The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy numbers this morning show that Rubio has a six-point advantange over Demings — 47 percent to 4,1 percent. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent, shows the race has not really changed dramatically since February when Mason-Dixon showed Rubio with a seven-point margin. The poll of 800 voters was done Sept. 26 through Sept. 28, which is the same day Hurricane Ian made landfall in southwest Florida. Biden underwater in Florida — The Senate race has been the most expensive in the state this cycle, with tens of millions of dollars being spent on ads, including from Demings. But Brad Coker, the CEO and managing director for Mason-Dixon, pointed to several key factors helping Rubio. He said the "continued unpopularity" of Biden is "creating headwinds" for Demings. His poll found that 54 percent of those surveyed in the state disapproved of the job Biden's been doing. Breaking it down further — Rubio is also doing better with unaffiliated voters and is drawing even with Demings — 45 percent to 45 percent — among Hispanic voters. Demings is doing slightly better than Rubio among female voters, 44 percent to 41 percent, but Rubio has a substantial lead among older voters. Rubio leads Demings 53 percent to 38 percent with voters 50 and older, which is a part of the Florida electorate that usually yields the best turnout rate. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis, but it's anticipated that he will again be in southwest Florida responding to Hurricane Ian. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | |  | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | SITUATIONAL AWARENESS — Six days after Hurricane Ian ravaged Florida slightly more than 428,000 home and businesses remain without power, according to new figures posted this morning by the Florida Public Service Commission. The death toll continues to grow. Official numbers from the state released on Monday evening said there had been 68 fatalities associated with the storm, including 45 deaths in Lee County. Also of note, insurers have reported $1.61 billion in estimated insured losses and more than 222,000 claims. That number is also expected to grow.
|  A sign in southwest Florida where clean-up efforts remain underway after Hurricane Ian slammed into the state | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | WORK IN PROGRESS — "Hit by Hurricane Ian, Southwest Florida neighbors (who can) are helping other neighbors," by Fort Myers News-Press' Frank Gluck: "Barely a week after Ian made landfall in Southwest Florida, the region has seen an outpouring of support, particularly from residents who themselves are weathering the storm's aftermath. Often it's neighbors helping neighbors. Sometimes it's family members who have come in from far-flung parts of the region. Others have joined up with charity groups providing much-needed aid and comfort." IT'S ALL GREEN — DeSantis asked the feds for hurricane relief. But he's long used their cash, by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: "Gov. Ron DeSantis has been a persistent critic of President Joe Biden on nearly every policy front as he moves toward a likely potential 2024 presidential bid. But the Florida Republican likes one thing about the president: his wallet. Over the past two years, DeSantis' administration received billions of dollars in emergency federal aid during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, money that the governor used to fund his top priorities and pet projects. Florida is now poised to benefit from billions of dollars in additional federal assistance to grapple with the devastating damage left by Hurricane Ian, which could bring a staggering $40 billion of insured losses." STILL REELING — Death toll rises in Florida as search and rescue operations continue, by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian and Matt Dixon: Officials across Florida on Monday were assessing the full extent of the destruction from Hurricane Ian, with fatalities climbing and massive search and rescue efforts continuing days after the historic storm caused catastrophic damage. The official death tally increased to 68 over the weekend, with the toll likely to rise significantly in the days ahead. The vast majority of those deaths — 45 — were in hard-hit Lee County in southwest Florida. The hurricane made landfall near Fort Myers in Lee County on Wednesday as a Category 4 storm. — "Civilians furious as relief operations paused while Governor Ron DeSantis toured hard-hit Arcadia," by WFTS' Michael Paluska NEXT TIME AROUND — Time to reinvent Florida once again, by Cynthia Barnett for POLITICO magazine: In Florida — a real place with human roots that rebut the clueless takes that we can all just up and move — the way forward begins with an understanding that the sunny, paradisiacal vision of the state is both carefully constructed and fairly new. Only a century ago, the Sanibel Island now famed for pristine beaches and seashells was best known for its fruit and vegetable crops. Sanibel grapefruits won state fair prizes. Its castor beans were sold as a cure for yellow fever. Tomatoes grew so plump in the calcified soils they fetched $1.50 a piece in New York City hotels. Then, in October 1921 and again in September 1926, deadly hurricanes churned into Sanibel, one of a string of islands ringing Charlotte Harbor where Ian, and Charley 18 years before, also charged the coast. The Gulf of Mexico overtook the land, drowning the fruit and vegetable farms. — "Visit Florida pauses advertising as it crafts a post-Hurricane Ian campaign," by News Service of Florida — "Hurricane Ian recovery: Thousands register for FEMA help in Orange County," by Orlando Sentinel's Stephen Hudak — " The property insurance market was melting down. Then Hurricane Ian flooded Southwest Florida," by Palm Beach Post's Hannah Morse and Antonio Fins: HMM — " NYC migrants pile into vans they say are headed to Florida for Hurricane Ian cleanup," by New York Post's Valentina Jaramillo, Bernadette Hogan, Georgia Worrell, Haley Brown and David Meyer: "Scores of Venezuelan migrants in New York City are hopping on vans to head down to Florida for Hurricane Ian clean-up, they told The Post. The migrants had scant information about whom they would be working for, but they still piled into vans in Queens that they said were headed to the Sunshine State over the weekend. 'They want us for hurricane cleanup, we'd get paid $15 an hour, overtime and $15 for food daily, I think,' said Javier Moreno, 37, noting that a woman named Camila 'from an organization' approached him with a flier."
| | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | REMEMBERING ANTONACCI — A crowd of roughly 200 high-ranking politicians, lawyers, judges and lobbyists gathered on Monday afternoon on the campus of Florida State University for a memorial service for Pete Antonacci , who abruptly died late last month at the age of 74. Antonacci, who was appointed head of the newly-created Office of Election Crimes and Security, was lauded as a mentor, a loyal friend, a creative and loyal public servant, and as "force of nature." Antonacci was repeatedly tapped by several governors for spots in state and local government, including Broward County elections supervisor and the executive director of the South Florida Water Management District. Spotted — Those who attended the service included DeSantis, Sen. Rick Scott, Florida Supreme Court Chief Justice Carlos Muñiz, Justice Charles Canady, Tallahassee Mayor John Dailey, state Sen. Loranne Ausley, Jackie Schutz Zeckman, executive director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd, 1st District Court of Appeal Chief Judge Lori Rowe, 1st DCA Judge Bobby Long, State Attorney Jack Campbell, Taryn Fenske , communications director for DeSantis, Stephanie Kopelousos, legislative affairs director for DeSantis, former State Attorney Willie Meggs, and former Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon. KICKED OUT — " Federal judge rejects challenge to Florida 'don't say gay' law for school instruction," by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders: "A federal judge has rejected — at least for now — a lawsuit challenging a controversial new law that restricts instruction on gender identity and sexual orientation in public schools. U.S. District Judge Allen Winsor on Thursday issued a 25-page order dismissing the case, finding that plaintiffs did not show they had legal standing. Winsor, however, said the plaintiffs can file a revised lawsuit as they seek to block the restrictions. The law, approved this year by the Republican-controlled Legislature and Gov. Ron DeSantis, prevents instruction on gender identity and sexual orientation in kindergarten through third grade and requires that such instruction be 'age-appropriate … in accordance with state academic standards' in older grades."
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | CAMPAIGN MODE | | YEAH, SORT OF — "'Politics are going to get injected': Days after Ian, campaigns roar back to life ," by McClatchy D.C.'s Alex Roarty and Bianca Padró Ocasio: "Even one of the state's worst natural disasters couldn't keep politics at bay for long in Florida. Less than a week after Hurricane Ian devastated parts of the state's southwest coast and flooded its central region, many Florida campaigns are roaring back to life this week, eager to resume politicking just days after many candidates were more focused on helping affected residents survive and recover from the storm. And increasingly, they're comfortable using the hurricane — and public officials' response to it — as part of their effort, with little more than a month to go before Election Day and mail-ballot voting already underway." — "Black GOP candidate depicted in ad on shooting target in contentious Florida Senate race," by City and State's Jim Rosica — " With new GOP infusion, ad spending in CD 27 nearly quadruple the next-costliest U.S. House race in South Florida," by Florida Politics' Jesse Scheckner — " Abortion, 2020 among differences spotlighted in first Loranne Ausley, Corey Simon debate," by Florida Politics' Renzo Downey
| | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | TO COURT — "Trump sues CNN for defamation, seeks $475 million in damages," by Washington Post's Kelly Kasulis Cho: "Former president Donald Trump sued CNN for defamation on Monday and is seeking $475 million in punitive damages, a move that escalates his conflict with U.S. news organizations that have critically reported on his career. The 29-page lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, alleges that CNN took part in a 'campaign of dissuasion in the form of libel and slander' that 'escalated in recent months' because the network feared Trump would again run for president. The lawsuit took issue with CNN's use of the words 'racist' and 'insurrectionist,' as well as associations made between the former president and Adolf Hitler. AS THE PAGES TURN — "Trump's lawyer refused his request in February to say all documents returned," by Washington Post's Josh Dawsey and Jacqueline Alemany: "Former president Donald Trump asked one of his lawyers to tell the National Archives and Records Administration in early 2022 that Trump had returned all materials requested by the agency, but the lawyer declined because he was not sure the statement was true, according to people familiar with the matter. As it turned out, thousands more government documents — including some highly classified secrets — remained at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence and private club. The later discovery of those documents, through a May grand jury subpoena and the Aug. 8 FBI search of the Florida property, are at the heart of a criminal investigation into the potential mishandling of classified material and the possible hiding, tampering or destruction of government records." — "Prosecution says Oath Keepers 'concocted a plan for armed rebellion,'" by The New York Times' Alan Feuer
| | DATELINE D.C. | | BEHIND THE CURTAIN — Inside the GOP's heated, leaky race to lead a powerful House panel, by POLITICO's Olivia Beavers: Vern Buchanan's GOP colleagues have an anonymous warning for his campaign to lead a powerful House panel: It's not locked up yet. While early reports indicated the Floridian had the votes for the top GOP spot on the Ways and Means Committee shored up, there are signs Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has gained ground. He's aggressively working members of the House Steering Committee — who will decide who gets the plum position — and touting higher fundraising numbers. REBUFFED — " US Supreme Court rejects Florida's 'fragile' kids case," by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders: " The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected Florida's request to take up a dispute with the federal government stemming from concerns about 'medically fragile' children being placed in nursing homes. The Supreme Court, as is common, did not explain its refusal to hear the case. But the move effectively let stand a decision by the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in favor of the U.S. Department of Justice in a nearly decade-long legal battle." GETTING INTO ACTION — Ketanji Brown Jackson grabs the spotlight in first Supreme Court session, by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein : Simply by taking the bench, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson made history Monday, but as the Supreme Court kicked off its new term she also sent a message that she has no intent of being a shrinking violet despite her newcomer status. Jackson waited less than eight minutes before jumping into the fray as her colleagues grappled with a dispute about the scope of federal agencies' authority to regulate land use as a means of preventing water pollution.
| | THE GUNSHINE STATE | | 'HIS EXECUTIVE FUNCTION … WAS INTACT' — "Parkland gunman's admissions to psychiatrist reveal long-time intent to be mass shooter, testimony shows ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Rafael Olmeda: "He chose Valentine's Day because he had no one to love and no one loved him. He considered sparing two victims but decided against it because they gave him a 'nasty look.' He laid down his weapon after murdering his last victim because he couldn't find anyone else to kill. Confessed gunman Nikolas Cruz, whose trial resumed in a Fort Lauderdale courtroom Monday, made a series of admissions to a prosecution psychiatrist in interviews earlier this year — interviews that were recorded on video and played for the jury." — "Parkland school principal faces charges over guns being found on campus," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Lisa J. Huriash
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | 'BETTER PREPARED FOR THE FUTURE' — "In visit to Puerto Rico, Biden says he's 'determined to help' recovery after Hurricane Fiona," by Miami Herald's Syra Ortiz-Blanes and McClatchy D.C.'s Alex Roarty: "President Joe Biden declared in Puerto Rico on Monday that his administration is committed to helping the island recover from Hurricane Fiona and other disasters, announcing more than $60 million federal investment in flood management that he said was only a small piece of the overall assistance he is ready to provide the territory. 'I'm determined to help Puerto Rico build faster than in the past and stronger and better prepared for the future,' said Biden, who arrived at a port in the city of Ponce as thunder and lightning set in amid a sweltering day." | 
Joe Biden said he'd long felt an intense kinship with the people here, noting his many visits and the fact that he's from a small and diverse state. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | COMPARE AND CONTRAST — Biden's visit to Puerto Rico rekindles memories of Trump's, by POLITICO's Myah Ward and Christopher Cadelago: When President Joe Biden entered the gym, the roughly 50 or so people inside applauded. In a suit jacket, blue oxford shirt with open collar and khakis, the president posed for a group photo, shook hands and chatted briefly with storm survivors. Those in attendance could be forgiven if they were suffering, in that moment, from a bout of deja vu: Five years ago to the day, then-President Donald Trump had visited the island, too. He was there to survey the damage done by Hurricane Maria amid a heightening rift with the mayor of San Juan, Carmen Yulín Cruz, who had grown increasingly frustrated and critical with his hurricane response. 'FREEDOM!' — "As Cubans demand freedom, Diaz-Canel says he will not tolerate 'illegitimate' protests," by El Nuevo Herald's Nora Gámez Torres: "As residents in Havana and other cities continue demonstrating against the government and its response to Hurricane Ian, security forces have beaten and arrested some protesters, and Cuba's handpicked president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, warned the population that "counterrevolutionary" behavior like blocking the streets will be punished. Since the storm slammed into the westernmost past of the island, Cubans around the capital and other cities have taken to the streets marching, banging pots and pans, blocking roads and demanding the government restore basic services like electricity and water. Ian damaged the already crippled electrical grid and caused the entire country to go dark on Sept. 27. Many demonstrators have also been demanding political liberties, chanting 'Freedom!'" — "As gas tax relief kicks in, Florida could see sub-$3 per gallon prices," by Tallahassee Democrat's Ana Goñi-Lessan
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — "Is Miami Beach like Russia? Commissioner apologizes for comparing mayor to Putin," by Miami Herald's Aaron Leibowitz: "Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez apologized Sunday after comparing Mayor Dan Gelber to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a social media post about upcoming November ballot referendums. 'What do these two leaders have in common? Sham Referenda!' a Facebook story from Rosen Gonzalez read Saturday, showing Gelber's face next to Putin's and urging voters to reject two ballot questions on controversial land leases to redevelop city-owned property near Lincoln Road. Gelber shot back in an email to residents Sunday, criticizing Rosen Gonzalez for making "ad hominem personal attacks." BIRTHDAYS: Katie Miller, former communications director for former Vice President Mike Pence ... Maria Carrillo, former editor for Tampa Bay Times | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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