| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  There is a growing confidence both in and outside the White House that the Republicans who are readying a smorgasbord of investigations will overreach — and that their attempts will backfire politically. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THIS WEEK — Monday: Supreme Court opens its 2022-23 term. President JOE BIDEN heads to Puerto Rico to survey hurricane damage … Tuesday: MAGGIE HABERMAN's "Confidence Man" is released. Yom Kippur starts at sundown. … Wednesday: Kansas gubernatorial debate between Gov. LAURA KELLY and AG DEREK SCHMIDT. … Thursday: Arizona Senate debate between BLAKE MASTERS and Sen. MARK KELLY . … Friday: September jobs figures released. North Carolina Senate debate between Rep. TED BUDD and CHERI BEASLEY. BREAKING OVERNIGHT — "The British government has dropped plans to cut income tax for top earners, part of a package of unfunded cuts that sparked turmoil on financial markets and sent the pound to record lows. … 'We get it, and we have listened,' [Chancellor KWASI KWARTENG] said in a statement." More from AP BOLSONARO SURVIVES — Brazil's closely watched presidential election heads to an Oct. 30 runoff after leftist former president LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA could muster no better than 48.1% against right-wing incumbent JAIR BOLSONARO, who earned 43.5%. "The tightness of the result came as a surprise, since pre-election polls had given da Silva a commanding lead," the AP reports , quoting a Sao Paulo political science professor: "It is too soon to go too deep, but this election shows Bolsonaro's victory in 2018 was not a hiccup." SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK — Republicans are openly musing about their plans to aggressively investigate Biden's administration, his family and everything else in between should they manage to win a congressional majority next month. Yet aides and allies of the president aren't sweating it completely, Eugene, Jonathan Lemire and Jordain Carney write this morning. To be clear, no one in the Biden orbit is itching for subpoenas. Congressional probes eat up White House staff time and resources, and they can push presidential priorities out of lots of news cycles. But there is a growing confidence both in and outside the White House that the Republicans who are readying a smorgasbord of investigations will end up overreaching and that the probes will ultimately boomerang to Democrats' political benefit. One White House ally put it like this: "It might make the base feel good, and it's going to give MATT GAETZ [(R-Fla.)] and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE [(R-Ga.)] something awesome to say on their livestream[s], but it's not going to be what convinces suburban women in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania." Key GOP chairs-in-waiting have been prepping for months already. They are coordinating with party leaders, including House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY, about how it will all work. High on the Republican punch list: 1. A microscopic look into the business dealings of HUNTER BIDEN; 2. Multi-prong investigations into Biden's border policy, which could morph into an impeachment of DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS; 3. A probe of the coronavirus' origins, with a focus on ANTHONY FAUCI's role in approving controversial research programs; 4. A multi-committee dive into the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan; and 5. A sweeping dig into the Justice Department and FBI, led by potential House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio). "We've got a lot of opportunities. We've got a lot of work to do," said Rep. JAMES COMER (R-Ky.), who is in line to lead the House Oversight Committee. The White House has been readying for a potential GOP inquisition since 2020. But the efforts have accelerated since veteran D.C. lawyer DICK SAUBER joined the administration in May as special counsel focusing on oversight, with IAN SAMS managing comms. Sauber's team is likely to grow once a clearer picture of the political landscape emerges after the midterms. The frontline for any Democratic effort to discredit the GOP investigations, however, will be on Capitol Hill, and several prominent House Democrats are expected to take on starring roles, including Reps. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.), GERRY CONNOLLY (D-Va.), ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) and HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.). Democrats are ready to deploy one potent defense against the Hunter Biden attacks: DONALD TRUMP's decisions to place his closest family members in prominent administration positions. "[Republicans] spent four years defending Donald Trump making his daughter and son-in-law senior White House officials as they did hundreds of millions of dollars in international business," one senior Democrat said.
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Maggie Haberman in the press room at New York City Hall. | THE PLAYBOOK BOOK CLUB Q&A — The long-awaited 600-plus-page opus from Maggie Haberman, "Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America" ($32 ), comes out on Tuesday. No reporter has lived rent-free in Trump's head longer than Haberman. The New York Times reporter (and former POLITICO) told Eugene the main question she wanted to answer was, "Who is this person?" She added: "I wanted to write a book explaining why it was impossible to understand who he is without knowing where he comes from and how much that informed him. … This is the first book that grapples with the pre-presidency and the presidency and into the post-presidency and tries to show the continuity throughout." The book, she said, attempts to avoid palace intrigue: "I tried to keep the lens on him throughout, because what often happened covering him, in my experience, was that he would sort of disappear behind his aides. Their fights with each other would end up dominating, and I really tried to avoid getting into that." Haberman bets Trump runs in 2024: "The second he says he's not, he's irrelevant. Everyone I speak to around him says that they believe he's going to run. And, not all of them, but many of them say his heart isn't quite in it. Now, those two things are not mutually exclusive. You can run and have your heart not be in it. However, we have seen with other people who run when their heart isn't in it, voters actually can tell you it has an impact on how you run." But she has no idea how it all ends: "This is an unprecedented situation," she said, noting the slew of federal and state investigations he faces, his continued refusal to acknowledge his 2020 loss, and his continued grip on the GOP. "I just don't know what any of this looks like. It is enormously destabilizing, what we're talking about." The one question she didn't ask Trump: "I wish I had asked him if he had ever considered a White House taping system. I don't know how he would have answered it. I don't even know that it would have been a real answer. But whatever he said would have been interesting." Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: The 340B program may be driving up costs for some patients. A new analysis finds average costs per prescription for a patient is more than 150% greater at 340B hospitals than at non-340B hospitals. It's time to fix the 340B program. Learn more. | | | STORM CHASER — Twice this week, Biden will survey hurricane-ravaged areas. Today, he's headed to Puerto Rico, where more than 100,000 people are still without power after Hurricane Fiona swept through the island territory last month. A White House official says Biden says "will announce more than $60 million in funding through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to shore up levees, strengthen flood walls, and create a new flood warning system to help Puerto Rico become better prepared for future storms." On Wednesday, he'll head to Florida after Hurricane Ian, where he's likely to meet with Florida Gov. (and possible 2024 rival) RON DeSANTIS.
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| Rural voters were the locomotive that powered the Trump train, and their ongoing abandonment of the Democratic Party has been a major factor in America's recent political realignment. But there are signs that the GOP's new electoral bedrock might be eroding, at least slightly. Our colleagues Holly Otterbein and Jessica Piper report that turnout numbers from this summer's special elections suggest that rural voters may be growing less enthused vis-a-vis those residing in urban and suburban counties. The June Supreme Court decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion appears to be a pivot point. By the numbers: "In four congressional special elections that have been held since June to fill vacant House seats — in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York — the portion of registered voters who cast ballots averaged 27 percent in suburban and urban counties, compared to 22 percent in rural counties, according to the analysis. Ahead of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision that overturned Roe, those three groups had turnout numbers similar to each other." Jessica tells Playbook that strategists have a grab bag of theories for the shift. Among Democrats, "Some said it was the anti-abortion movement going to sleep after Roe v. Wade was struck down, while others said it was pro-abortion rights voters who typically support Republicans being turned off and not coming to the polls." Holly adds that some Republicans are blaming the party's messaging for any slippage in the special elections. "Trump's frequent focus on immigration was something that motivated his base," she said. "They believe the party can pivot to reverse its fortunes for the midterms." BIG PICTURE TAPPING INTO TRUMP COUNTRY — AP's Lisa Mascaro reports from Monongahela, Pa., an historic town where the House GOP recently rolled out its midterm agenda, Trump-Pence signs still hang around and DOUG MASTRIANO is considered a "folk hero." "The enthusiasm for Donald Trump's unique brand of nationalist populism has cut into traditional Democratic strongholds like Monongahela, about 25 miles south of Pittsburgh, where brick storefronts and a Slovak fellowship hall dot Main Street and church bells mark the hours of the day," she writes. "Republicans are counting on political nostalgia for the Trump era as they battle Democrats this fall in Pennsylvania in races for governor, the U.S. Senate and control of Congress." GOING TO THE DARK SIDE — As Election Day creeps ever closer, "many Democrats have largely settled on a campaign message, and it's not one that simply emphasizes their accomplishments," WaPo's Yasmeen Abutaleb reports. "Instead, it amounts to a stark warning: If Republicans take power, they will establish a dystopia that cripples democracy and eviscerates abortion rights and other freedoms." WHAT REPUBLICANS DON'T WANT TO DISCUSS — After years of deploying the Affordable Care Act as a weapon against Democrats, Republicans seem to be moving on from the issue, NBC's Sahil Kapur writes. "None of the Republican Senate nominees running in eight key battleground states have called for unwinding the ACA on their campaign websites, according to an NBC News review. The candidates scarcely mention the 2010 law or health insurance policy in general. And in interviews on Capitol Hill, key GOP lawmakers said the desire for repeal has faded." PREPARING FOR THE WORST — "Election officials brace for confrontational poll watchers," by AP's Hannah Schoenbaum and Nicholas Riccardi BATTLE FOR THE SENATE DEMS' DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDE — Nevada Democrats are starting to worry that their nightmare scenario may come true: "At the doors, on the phones and on the streets, Latinos are threatening to stay home. And that is despite the presence of the first-ever Latina elected to the U.S. Senate, CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, at the top of the ballot," NBC's Natasha Korecki reports from Las Vegas . "In one of the most competitive battleground states in the country, one where Joe Biden won by a little more than 33,000 votes — no group could hold more sway over how the state swings than Latinos, who make up one in five midterm voters in Nevada, according to estimates from both parties." BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE PUSHING THEIR CHIPS IN — House Democrats across the country are going all in on abortion, staking their majority on the hunch that their messaging will land in nearly every race in every state. "Democratic candidates, their party's campaign arm and allied super PACs have spent nearly $18 million to air more than 100 abortion-centered broadcast TV ads in some four dozen battleground seats as of the end of September, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from AdImpact," Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris report . "That sum is already three times more than what Democrats spent on abortion ads during the entire 2018 general election." TAKE ME HOME, HAMPTON ROADS — "Virginia's 2nd district: Candidates spar over abortion, rising costs in one of the nation's most competitive House races," by CNN's Dana Bash and Abbie Sharpe BATTLE FOR THE STATES UP FOR DEBATE — Nevada Democratic Gov. STEVE SISOLAK and Republican challenger JOE LOMBARDO squared off in the first general election debate in the state — and likely the only one, the Nevada Independent's Jacob Solis and Tabitha Mueller write. "The pair sparred on a range of issues, debating the governor's performance on COVID response, the economy and education, while Sisolak pressed Lombardo over his record as sheriff, a recent increase in crime and his position on abortion." HOT POLLS — California: Republican RICK CARUSO is gaining on Democratic Rep. KAREN BASS in the Los Angeles mayoral race, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll: Among registered voters, Bass leads Caruso, 34% to 31% — though Bass' lead jumps to 46% to 31% among likely voters. More from the L.A. Times
| | | | A message from PhRMA: It's time to fix the 340B program. Learn more. | | | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY:
10:10 a.m.: The president and first lady JILL BIDEN will depart the White House en route to Puerto Rico, where they are scheduled to arrive at 2 p.m.
2:30 p.m.: Biden will receive a briefing, and at 2:45 p.m. will deliver remarks.
3:30 p.m.: The president and first lady will visit Centro Sor Isolina Ferré Aguayo School.
4:50 p.m.: The Bidens will depart Puerto Rico to return to the White House, where they are scheduled to arrive at 8:55 p.m.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Puerto Rico.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY: The vice president has nothing on her public schedule.
THE HOUSE and SENATE are out. | | | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A follower of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who is again running for president, celebrates as she listens to the partial results after general election polls closed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday. | Silvia Izquierdo/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | JUDICIARY SQUARE THEY'RE BACK — The Supreme Court returns to the bench today, a return that is marked mostly by tension and is perhaps unlike any other in the history of the institution. "The normally relaxed season for heading to vacation homes and teaching abroad was marked by the most intense security footing ever for the justices, along with uncommonly public internecine strife among the court's members," Josh Gerstein writes. "The stresses of the past year remain evident and won't be erased simply by the justices throwing themselves back into their work or by welcoming their newest colleague, Justice KETANJI BROWN JACKSON, as they did last week." WAR IN UKRAINE THE VIEW FROM KYIV — "Zelensky hails advances as open recriminations intensify in Russian media," by WaPo's Missy Ryan, Robyn Dixon and Serhiy Morgunov TURNING TIDE — "As Russian Troops Flee Lyman, Ukrainians Rejoice—and Help Themselves to Russian Supplies," by WSJ's Yaroslav Trofimov ON THE GROUND — "Ukrainian Troops Hunt Demoralized Russian Stragglers in Seized City," by NYT's Andrew Kramer, Michael Schwirtz and Norimitsu Onishi TRUMP CARDS YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH SOCIAL — Trump's effort to take his social media startup public is sputtering as it faces a key deadline today. "The hedge funds, trading firms and other major backers are questioning whether the financial riches that first attracted them to the transaction are still strong enough to hold their interest in a deal fraught with troubles, according to four investors who asked not to be named," Declan Harty reports. "Negotiations have been ongoing as some investors seek bigger potential profits in exchange for following through on commitments to put hundreds of millions of dollars into the venture, which planned a public stock exchange listing through a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC." TOP-ED — The WSJ Editorial Board writes: "Trump's 'Death Wish' Rhetoric": "The 'death wish' rhetoric is ugly even by Mr. Trump's standards and deserves to be condemned. Mr. Trump's apologists claim he merely meant Mr. McConnell has a political death wish, but that isn't what he wrote. It's all too easy to imagine some fanatic taking Mr. Trump seriously and literally, and attempting to kill Mr. McConnell." POLICY CORNER ENGINE TROUBLE — Biden's push to update the use of electric-powered vehicles among the federal fleet is slow on the start, AP's Hope Yen, Matthew Daly and David Sharp report . "The White House frequently describes the 2027 timeline as on track. But the General Services Administration, the agency that purchases two-thirds of the 656,000-vehicle federal fleet, says there are no guarantees. Then there is the U.S. Postal Service, which owns the remaining one-third of the federal fleet. After initially balking and facing lawsuits, the agency now says that half of its initial purchase of 50,000 next-generation vehicles will be powered by electricity."
| | | | A message from PhRMA:   It's time to fix the 340B program. Learn more. | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD HEADS UP — "OPEC Plus Considering Major Production Cut to Prop Up Oil Prices," by NYT's Stanley Reed — "Allies aim for risky Russian oil price cap as winter nears," by AP's Fatima Hussein THE ECONOMY THE VIEW FROM WALL STREET — "After Punishing Year for Stocks, Investors Aren't Betting on Post-Midterm Rally," by WSJ's Hannah Miao JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH JUST POSTED — "They Legitimized the Myth of a Stolen Election — and Reaped the Rewards," by NYT's Steve Eder, David D. Kirkpatrick and Mike McIntire BEYOND THE BELTWAY HURRICANE IAN LATEST — "Historic search-and-rescue operation underway as Ian's death toll reaches 87," by NBC's Mithil Aggarwal and Julianne McShane — "Ian is long gone but water keeps rising in central Florida," by AP's Mike Schneider — "'I Did All I Could': As Floodwaters Rose, She Fought to Save Her Disabled Brothers," by NYT's Corina Knoll THE MIGRANT FLIGHTS — NYT's Edgar Sandoval, Miriam Jordan, Patricia Mazzei and J. David Goodman track down the details on "Perla," the woman who helped corral Venezuelan migrants onto the planes headed for Martha's Vineyard. PERLA HUERTA, "a former combat medic and counterintelligence agent, was discharged last month after two decades in the U.S. Army that included several deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, according to military records," they report. "'We were tricked in Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Mexico — and then in the United States,' said CARLOS GUANAGUANAY, 25, who was approached by the woman called Perla while strolling the aisles of a supermarket near a shelter where he had been staying in San Antonio." Plus, this scene: Upon arrival in Martha's Vineyard, "several migrants said in interviews, they were taken in vans that had been waiting for them and deposited near a community center, where they were told to knock on the door. The woman who answered had no idea who they were and did not speak Spanish. "'When they opened up their phones and put on Google Maps to see where they were and found out that they were surrounded entirely by water — that was terrifying,' said State Representative DYLAN FERNANDES of Massachusetts, a Democrat, who met some of the migrants. Some tried, in vain, to find a bridge." THE CLASSROOM CRISIS — "An American education," by WaPo's Eli Saslow: "Amid a historic U.S. teacher shortage, a 'Most Outstanding Teacher' from the Philippines tries to help save a struggling school in rural Arizona."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Madison Cawthorn's campaign merch made its way to a North Carolina Goodwill. Ron Klain is now the longest-serving first chief of staff for a Democratic president. Harry Styles gave a shoutout to Beto O'Rourke at his show in Austin, where O'Rourke was in attendance. IN MEMORIAM — "Judge Laurence Silberman Shaped Second Amendment Jurisprudence," by WSJ's Jess Bravin, James Hagerty and Jan Wolfe: "Laurence Silberman, an influential conservative during a long career as an appeals court judge and federal government official, died Sunday at his home in Washington, D.C., 10 days before his 87th birthday. Judge Silberman died of natural causes, his son, Robert Silberman, said. … One of the country's most influential jurists, Judge Silberman shaped Second Amendment jurisprudence and advocated for a philosophy of 'judicial restraint,' an approach that emphasizes the limited role of the judiciary in the U.S. constitutional system." FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Chasten Buttigieg is joining KNP Communications as a senior consultant. MEDIA MOVE — Lauren Peller is now a digital journalist covering Congress for ABC. She previously was a broadcast associate for CBS' "Face the Nation." WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Alex DeMots is now deputy to White House staff secretary and senior adviser Neera Tanden. He was most recently general counsel at the Center for American Progress. TRANSITIONS — Angelena Bradfield is now head of policy and government relations at the Financial Technology Association. She most recently was SVP for AML/BSA, sanctions and privacy at the Bank Policy Institute. … Mariel Jorgensen is now senior LA for Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). She previously was legislative director for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). … Craig Wheeler is now comms director for Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio). He previously was comms director for Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.). … Kevin McColaugh is now director of government affairs at 6K Inc. He previously was deputy chief of staff for Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker. OUT AND ABOUT — The Black Women's Congressional Alliance honored Black women communicators, chaired by Keenan Austin Reed, at the Eaton Hotel on Sunday night, where Eva McKend, Erica Loewe, Earnestine Dawson, Bernadine Stallings, Kirsten Allen and Rykia Dorsey Craig were honored. SPOTTED: Amanda Finney, Hope Goins, Joyce Kazadi, Raven Reeder, Patrice Stanley, Erica Johnson-Creamer, Philip Wallace, Faith Leach, Vince Evans, Wendy Hamilton, Erin Wilson, Nick Johnson and Chasseny Lewis. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jessica Henrichs, deputy comms director for the House Ways and Means Committee, and William Henrichs, a vendor relationship manager at Stand Together, recently welcomed Scott David Henrichs. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) … Rev. Al Sharpton … Tusk Strategies' Cristóbal Alex … Rolling Stone's Asawin Suebsaeng … AP's Darlene Superville and Verena Dobnik … CNN's Maegan Vazquez … The Daily Beast's Ursula Perano … Targeted Victory's Logan Dobson ... Backstory Strategies' J. Toscano … Jonathan Lamy of Live Nation … Pam Gilbert … Dewey Square Group's Katie Whelan … Sally Painter of Blue Star Strategies … Joshua Chaffee … Insider's Kimberly Leonard … Tim Gowa … former Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) … former Reps. Allyson Schwartz (D-Pa.), Dave Obey (D-Wis.), Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) and Charlie Melançon (D-La.) … Eric Reller ... Mark Hamrick ... Eric Wolff … Michael Medved … former Alabama Gov. Bob Riley … Sarah Feinberg … Bradley Tusk … Ruben Gonzales of the White House Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: The 340B program grew, yet again, hitting a whopping $43.9 billion in sales at the discounted 340B price in 2021. But there has not been evidence of corresponding growth in care provided to vulnerable patients at 340B covered entities. And making matters worse, fresh data show that 340B may actually be driving up costs for some patients and our health care system as whole. The program of today is having the opposite effect of what Congress intended when they created 340B. That's a problem. It's time to fix the 340B program. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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