Monday, October 3, 2022

Dems dial in midterm message

A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Oct 03, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Katherine Tully-McManus

MIDTERM MESSAGING CRUNCHTIME What's the winning message for Democrats, with Election Day just weeks away? Plenty are banking on abortion rights, while others in tighter swing districts or constituencies with more tepid support for abortion rights, are stressing Democrats' need to not put all their eggs in the abortion basket.

Ads tell the story: The ads that candidates (plus allied super PACs or the party's campaign arm) are running tell us a lot. Democrats have poured close to $18 million into airing more than 100 abortion-centered broadcast TV ads in some four dozen battleground seats as of the end of September, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from AdImpact, a media tracking firm. Compared to 2018, that is a threefold increase on ads featuring abortion.

It's the economy, stupid: But October ad buys could look different for some frontline Democrats. Incumbents in multiple swing districts told Sarah and Ally that they already have October ads that focus on the economy that they'll put in the field alongside ads on abortion.

"I've cautioned my team about not going all in on it, like we don't talk about anything else," said one Democratic incumbent, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The lawmaker said the abortion issue is likely to sway the election by "a few points," but feared that it could swamp the party's message on the economy to the point where voters think Democrats are saying, "'Oh who cares that prices are high?'"

But some Democrats in tough races see abortion rights as an essential issue to focus on, to draw contrast with their GOP challengers.

"My position and my opponent's couldn't be more stark. People should know this is a guy who thinks he has the right to tell a woman what to do after she's raped," said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

But in a South Texas district dominated by Catholics and cultural conservatism, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who himself is the last anti-abortion Democrat in the House Democratic Caucus, isn't leaning into abortion.

In retiring Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield's district in rural eastern North Carolina, State Sen. Don Davis, the Democratic nominee for the seat, is not running any broadcast TV ads on abortion rights.

"We need to talk about more than abortion," said Butterfield in a recent interview. "We need to talk about the economy… I just don't want the Democratic Party to be unfairly blamed for our economic woes."

More from Sarah and Ally on the Democrats' midterm messaging: Democrats stake their House majority on abortion

RELATED: The region where Democrats aren't going all in on the fall of Roe, from Marissa Martinez; Apocalypse now: Democrats embrace a dark midterm message, from Yasmeen Abutaleb at The Washington Post

 

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GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, October 3.

WHITE HOUSE PREPS FOR HOUSE GOP INVESTIGATION-PALOOZA Publicly, the White House is promoting optimism that Democrats will hang onto control of the House in the midterms. But behind the scenes, there has been a months-long effort to prepare for the deluge of investigations that House Republicans plan to unleash in the predicted scenario that they take the House.

Key targets: "We've got a lot of opportunities. We've got a lot of work to do. Obviously, we're going to have some high-profile committee hearings on the investigations dealing with Hunter Biden, dealing with [Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro] Mayorkas, dealing with the origination of Covid," said Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), who is expected to lead the Oversight Committee and beef up its staff if Republicans win back the majority.

De-fence, De-fence: The White House has hired a small team to begin laying out messaging and legal strategies that could be implemented in the face of GOP investigations. Key Democrats in the House are lining up to lead the party's public facing defense, on the committee dais and in the public eye. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) wants the top slot on House Oversight next year to continue what he started as a Trump impeachment manager and member of the Jan. 6 select committee.

"If we were forced to be in the minority, then we would be the spokespeople for the truth and for the rule of law against those who would trample both," said Raskin.

But Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) is also angling for that Oversight spot and he has a reputation as a tenacious bulldog who hasn't shied away from tangling with Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio.), who is expected to lead a massive probe of the Justice Department and FBI if his party grabs the majority.

Banking on it: Investigations into Biden's family, cabinet and administration are a cornerstone of the House Republicans agenda if they take the House. As Eugene Daniels, Jonathan Lemire and Jordain Carney write, the bar is lower for the investigations than for actually legislating: the GOP won't need buy-in from Democrats or Biden's signature.

SCHIFF'S MULLING SPICES Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) met Friday with his confidantes within the Democratic caucus as the Intelligence Committee Chair mulls a bid for leadership in the new Congress. He hasn't formally announced exactly which position he plans on running for, but if Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) were to bow out after the election, multiple sources say he'll throw his hat in the ring for the top job. Sarah has more on Schiff eyeing a shift.

JAYAPAL ALSO JOCKEYING — Earlier this year, POLITICO reported that Rep. Primila Jayapal (D-Wash.) was seeking a role in House Democratic leadership and now she's getting more specific.

"I think given the leadership role that I played so far, we'd have to see, but it would be one of the top roles probably," Jayapal told Bloomberg before the House closed up on Friday.

"I'm certainly aware that there might be an opportunity for me to display the same kind of leadership that I have with the Progressive Caucus for the broader caucus," the Washington Democrat said.

FIRST IN POLITICO: PENNSYLVANIA POLLING No, not for the Senate race. In the 17th district, where Democrat Chris Deluzio and Republican Jeremy Shaffer are duking it out to win outgoing Rep. Connor Lamb's (D-Pa.) seat, Deluzio is leading Shaffer 49-43, per a poll conducted by brilliant corners on behalf of the DCCC. Back in May, DCCC polling gave Deluzio a 44-41 lead and polling from Lake Research Partners in July that gave him a 43-42 lead.

POLITICO forecasts the race as a toss-up. Read the polling memo here. The poll included 400 likely voters between Sept. 18 and 20. The margin of error is +/-4.9 points.

WHAT MIKE FANONE REALLY THINKS — An expletive-laden profile of Former Metropolitan Police officer Michael Fanone by Alex Morris in Rolling Stone includes his takes on Kevin McCarthy, Mike Pence, Madison Cawthorn, Josh Hawley and others, along with his thoughts about his occasional check-in calls from Pelosi and if he thinks Raskin is the right person to take on today's GOP. ("I'm sorry, dude. I love Jamie Raskin — he's a really nice guy — but he is not designed for what lies ahead, and nor are the other super-intellectual types," said Fanone.)

"Fanone is done being an American hero…. He's tired of liberals who back the blue only on Jan. 6 and conservatives who back the blue only when it comes to policing people of color, tired of being given 47 seconds of airtime to explain how to reform an entire police system, tired of explaining why overthrowing a CVS and overthrowing the American government are not quite the same thing. He has given up on any delusions that what he says or does will change people's minds."

And brace yourself if your heart swells walking into these hallowed Capitol halls for work each day… "So little of my life has been spent in that building, and — fuck that place," Fanone told Morris. "And fuck the people inside it too."

JUMPING ON THE UNION TRAIN — The offices of Reps. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Sean Casten (D-Ill.) filed petitions last week with the Office of Congressional Workplace Rights to form unions. The move marks the second tranche of Hill staff exercising their newly affirmed right to organize for collective bargaining rights. The first group of eight offices petitioned back in July. Last week the staffs of Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) voted to unionize, 9-1 in Khanna's office and unanimously in Omar's office. Nancy has more on the state of unionization on Capitol Hill.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
HUDDLE HOTDISH

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) runs down the House steps after the last House vote before the midterm elections.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) arrives for a House vote at the U.S. Capitol Sept. 30, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO)

Gone, baby, gone… It's hard to describe the scene as 435 House members all race to, ehem, GTFO, after the last vote before the midterm elections. But The Washington Post's Paul Kane ditched his ever-present pen and pad in favor of an Instagram reel that really did capture the vibe . First down the steps, at a full jog: DCCC Chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) rides his Vespa-style scooter to the final House votes ahead of the election.

Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) arrives for a vote at the U.S. Capitol Sept. 30, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO)

Hype woman… Actress Jenifer Lewis took time to hype Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) as she posed with a group for pictures at the awards dinner at the Congressional Black Caucus' Annual Legislative Conference. "Do your little thing, like that!" Lewis said and The Washington Post's Brianna Tucker captured. Here's a shot of the Congressional Black Caucus in full glam.

QUICK LINKS 

Nevada Democrats see signs of nightmare scenario: Latino voters staying home, from Natasha Korecki at NBC News

A shaken Supreme Court returns to chambers, from Josh Gerstein

Trump: 'King' to some in Pennsylvania, but will it help GOP?, from Lisa Mascaro at The Associated Press

TRANSITIONS 

Molly Bauhan is now scheduler for Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.). She previously was a staff assistant for Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Kan.).

Mariel Jorgensen is now senior LA for Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). She previously was legislative director for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.).

Craig Wheeler is now comms director for Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio). He previously was comms director for Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.)

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are out.

AROUND THE HILL

A quiet Monday to start a quiet six weeks at the Capitol.

TRIVIA

FRIDAY'S WINNER: Harper White correctly answered that Bob Dole said: "If we had known we were going to win control of the Senate, we'd have run better candidates," about the 1980 election.

TODAY'S QUESTION from Harper: Which two members of Congress were elected speaker of the House during their freshman term?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus

 

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