Monday, October 3, 2022

💣Here’s How Pension Funds Could Blow Up the Market

Good morning. Last week's announcement by the Bank of England that they would intervene in the...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Last week's announcement by the Bank of England that they would intervene in the bond market to lower yields was seen as a sign of trouble. Now, details are emerging that without the intervention, rates would have soared even higher. And that could have caused a number of financial institutions to become insolvent.

A similar event could happen in the US. Rising bond yields mean lower prices, and funds, particularly pension funds, routinely sell bonds to meet cash needs. With declining asset values overall, some selling may be forced, to meet collateral calls or reduce investment exposure.

For now, the US doesn't appear to be at a breaking point. But further market volatility could cause something to break in the weeks or months to come. That's why it's still prudent to stay cautious, and look for trading opportunities to take advantage of the current volatility.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 28,725.51 -1.71%
S&P 3,585.62 -1.51%
NASDAQ 10,575.62 -1.51%
*As of market close
Markets traded lower on Friday, ending the third quarter of 2022 on new lows.
Oil dropped 1.9 percent, closing at $79.69- per barrel.
Gold traded flat, last going for about $1,669 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies generally declined, with Bitcoin at $19,499 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Buy Companies on the Way to Getting Bought Out
There are few surefire ways to profitably invest in the short-term. But investors who target companies whose shares are being rapidly bought by institutional investors can likely see a big win in a short amount of time.

That's because some companies become known as acquisition candidates well before an official announcement. And those who buy early can own shares ahead of a buyout. The return from such a trade may not be huge, but it will likely be more consistent than buying a non-target company.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX)
Magnolia Capital Fund, a major owner of RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX), recently added 35,390 shares. The buy increased the fund's stake by 1.7 percent, and came to a total price of just over $650,000.

The fund has been a repeated buyer of shares since June, buying up anywhere from 32,000 to 47,000 shares at a time, even at prices as much as 25 percent higher as where the stock trades today. Going further back, company insiders have generally been sellers of shares in the last two years.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Shares of Carnival Corporation (CCL) have lost 60 percent of their value in the past year. One trader sees the potential for a further decline in the coming weeks.

That's based on the November $9 put. With 46 days until expiration, 5,155 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 127, for a 41-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.11 to make the downside bet on the company.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
PCE Index Rises 0.3 Percent for August

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of inflation used by the Federal Reserve to benchmark how prices are changing, rose 6.2 percent for August compared to the prior year. On a month-to-month basis, the PCE rose by 0.3 percent, indicating that inflation remains persistent.
Eurozone Inflation Hits 10 Percent

Consumer prices for the Eurozone as a whole have hit 10 percent for September. The rise to double-digit inflation has occurred as energy prices have soared amid the uncertainty of supplies in this upcoming winter. The move will likely result in further rate hikes from the ECB when it meets later this month.
Bond Losses Top 30 Percent This Year

While many investors have focused on the declining stock market this year, parts of the bond market have been hit even harder. For many long-dated bonds, rising interest rates have led to price drops of 30 percent or more. That includes long-term US Treasuries, municipal bonds, and international government bonds.
Brainard Warns on Finishing the Fight Against Inflation

Lael Brainard, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, spoke on Friday about the need for the central bank to tackle inflation, until such rates are back at the Fed's target. She stressed the importance of pulling back prematurely by cutting rates while inflation is still high, as that may lead to higher rates of inflation as a result.
Meta Announces Hiring Freeze

Meta Platforms (META) is the latest company planning to cut costs by reducing headcount. The company is freezing new hiring and is looking to restructure some groups. Other companies in the tech space have announced similar plans in recent months, a sign that the job market may start to slow soon.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
CRL  4.279%
WY  3.279%
TWTR 3.194%
NOV 3.05%
EFX 2.762%
BOTTOM
CCL 21.833%
NCLH 17.244%
RCL 12.706%
NKE 12.2%
LULU 6.061%

Quote of the Day
Inflation is still at a 40 year high. So right now the conversation has to be we have to do, what we must do to get back to price stability, because we can't have a healthy economy, we can't have good labor markets over time, unless we get back to price stability…We're still not even in restrictive territory on the funds rate, so you're right, we've moved the funds rate up 300 basis points this year, but look how high inflation is.
- Loretta Mester, Cleveland Federal Reserve President, on why interest rates aren't yet restricting the economy, despite their sharp rise off of 0 percent earlier in the year.

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