Sunday, October 30, 2022

Can Obama spark a surge for Dems?

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POLITICO Playbook

By Garrett Ross

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DRIVING THE DAY

HAPPENING TODAY — "Brazil's polarizing Bolsonaro-Lula contest goes to voters," by AP's Diane Jeantet and Carla Bridi in Rio de Janeiro

ALMOST THERE — 9 days left until Election Day. … 21,033,344 early votes cast as of 9:44 a.m., per the United States Elections Project .

DISINFO WATCH — If the early days of ELON MUSK's stewardship of Twitter are any indication, the platform's disinformation problem isn't going away — indeed, it's moved inside corporate HQ.

This morning, two days after PAUL PELOSI was attacked at home by a hammer-wielding intruder, Musk replied to a HILLARY CLINTON tweet about political violence by posting a link to a story published by the Santa Monica Observer — an online outlet, which, per the L.A. Times , has a history of making conspiratorial, false and hoax-filled claims, including that Clinton died during the 2016 campaign and was replaced by a lookalike — that made baseless and salacious allegations about the Pelosi attack.

The Verge editor-in-chief Nilay Patel on Friday : "The problems with Twitter are not engineering problems. They are political problems. Twitter, the company, makes very little interesting technology; the tech stack is not the valuable asset. The asset is the user base: hopelessly addicted politicians, reporters, celebrities, and other people who should know better but keep posting anyway. … You can write as many polite letters to advertisers as you want, but you cannot reasonably expect to collect any meaningful advertising revenue if you do not promise those advertisers 'brand safety.'"

Could Musk's tweet be a wake-up call for advertisers and users wary of the site's direction? "What is the best platform if you're interested in a new one instead of twitter?" NEERA TANDEN tweeted this morning after Musk's post.

Musk in a letter to Twitter advertisers on Thursday : "Twitter obviously cannot become a free-for-all hellscape, where anything can be said with no consequences!"

Former President Barack Obama speaks at a campaign stop for Wisconsin Democrats Gov. Tony Evers and U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes, Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, in Milwaukee.

Former President Barack Obama campaigns in Wisconsin, on Saturday, Oct. 29. | Morry Gash/AP Photo

OBAMA LETS IT RIP — Former President BARACK OBAMA returned to the campaign trail on Saturday in two of Democrats' most vulnerable states — Michigan and Wisconsin — appearing at rallies with candidates in the states in an attempt to breathe life into the tightening races for Dems.

At both stops, Obama sought to paint his fellow Democrats as the only ones with concrete plans for the issues of the election: "Who will fight for you? Who is on your side?" he said in both states.

The duo of campaign stops were a jolt of energy for Democrats in the states and presented an alternate vision of how the party can litigate the issue of inflation on the trail in the closing days.

WaPo's Annie Linskey writes that , according to Democratic strategists, "Obama is the sole party leader able to draw major base-motivating crowds without simultaneously angering the other side."

In Wisconsin, Obama was perhaps at his most animated, ripping into GOP Sen. RON JOHNSON over Social Security, his response to the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and his embrace of Trump.

Johnson, Obama said, "has done more than just about anybody in Congress, to spread conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. I mean he has a gold medal in that event. … If that doesn't elicit uniform outrage, what will? What does it take?"

He continued: "These days just about every Republican politician seems obsessed with just two things: Own the libs — 'Hey, let's own the libs' — and getting DONALD TRUMP's approval. That is their agenda," he said, before deploying his patented "Don't boo, vote" line.

As he touted Dem Senate candidate MANDELA BARNES , Obama also advised him to "get ready to dig up that birth certificate" — a reference to the racist birtherism conspiracy that many, including Trump, tried to use against Obama. "That's the good old days," Obama said. "Remember when that was the craziest thing that people said? Now, it doesn't even make the top-10 list of crazy."

"I have to admit that sometimes going out on the campaign trail feels a little harder than it used to, not just because I'm older and grayer," he said, as someone behind him in the audience shouted "you're still fine," prompting Obama to turn around and laugh, asking her to repeat herself. Watch the clip

Former President Barack Obama campaigns for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer during a rally.

Obama campaigns in Michigan with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Saturday, Oct. 29. | Carlos Osorio/AP Photo

"I understand why you might be worried about the course of the country. Sometimes it's tempting just to tune out, watch football, watch 'Dancing With The Stars,'" Obama said in Michigan while stumping for Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER. "I'm here to tell you tuning out is not an option."

And as Obama blitzed swing states this weekend, Biden was at his home in Delaware. And he's not done: Obama will be in Nevada on Tuesday and appear with Biden in Pennsylvania on Saturday — a sign that the former president may be Democrats' preferred closer in the most contentious contests with less than two weeks to go.

Aaron Rupar rounds up the must-see clips from Obama's stump speeches: MichiganWisconsin

The local coverage: "Obama stumps for Whitmer in Detroit: 'Tuning out is not an option'" by the Detroit News' Kara Berg … "Barack Obama tells Detroit: Inflation hurts, but only one party will fix it," by the Detroit Free Press' Paul Egan … "'Don't boo. Vote': Obama seeks to energize Wisconsin Democrats in fiery Milwaukee speech," by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's

Good Sunday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. How are you counting down the days until Election Day? Drop me a line at gross@politico.com , or reach out to the rest of the team: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .

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BIG PICTURE

WHERE THINGS STAND — "Republicans head into final week with lead in seats, voters feel things are 'out of control,'" CBS News Battleground Tracker

"Midterm Momentum Grows for Republican House Gains, While Senate Remains Tight," by WSJ's Lindsay Wise

AS SEEN ON TV — "TV Prepares for a Chaotic Midterm Night," by NYT's Michael Grynbaum: "Amid rampant distrust in the news media and a rash of candidates who have telegraphed that they may claim election fraud if they lose, news anchors and executives are seeking new ways to tackle the attacks on the democratic process that have infected politics since the last election night broadcast in 2020."

TAKEN FOR GRANITE — Our colleague Lisa Kashinsky reports from Derry, N.H. , where political watchers on the ground are noticing that the roster of potential 2024 candidates on both sides of the aisle are skipping the Granite State stops ahead of the midterms. Why? A slate of far-right candidates challenging Dems in a state where Trump struggled to gain traction and the uncertainty of the 2024 presidential nominating calendar. Said GOP strategist PATRICK GRIFFIN: "People are viewing New Hampshire as a limited pasture right now."

LATE NIGHT TALKING — "'S.N.L.' Takes on Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz and Kari Lake," by NYT's Dave Itzkoff: In a segment where HEIDI GARDNER played PBS NewsHour's JUDY WOODRUFF, KENAN THOMPSON played HERSCHEL WALKER, MIKEY DAY played MEHMET OZ and CECILY STRONG played KARI LAKE. Watch the 5:55 clip

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE

GEORGIA ON MY MIND — Sensing a need for backup, Democratic Sen. JON OSSOFF is jumping into the Georgia Senate race for his colleague, Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK . The two came up together in the January 2021 runoffs that flipped the Senate for Democrats, and are now returning to the playbook that sent them to the Capitol as Warnock tries to hold off a challenge from Walker. "Ossoff believes that a strong field operation can change the electorate, and he's spending six-figures from his own leadership PAC account to try," Elena Schneider reports from Savannah .

FACT CHECK — "J.D. Vance says he's a job creator in the state of Ohio. Here's what the numbers show," by Adam Wren: While J.D. VANCE touts the creation of about 1,000 jobs, "a POLITICO analysis of information provided by his venture capital firm and Vance's financial disclosure forms suggest that 1,000 may be a bit of a stretch. Since it was founded in 2019, Narya, Vance's venture capital firm, was part of a group of at least 46 investors who together invested in three companies that created a total of about 750 jobs in the state of Ohio between 2019 and 2022."

THE 'GENERIC REPUBLICAN' ARGUMENT — Vance and Ohio Republican Gov. MIKE DeWINE campaigned together on Saturday — "the first time the Vance campaign touted the duo in advance to the news media," per Cleveland.com's Andrew Tobias . In remarks, DeWine "plugged the three Republican Ohio Supreme Court candidates before touting Vance … emphasizing the importance of Republicans taking control of the U.S. Senate.

"He is someone who is very thoughtful. He's someone who's conservative. And he's going to be a very strong conservative voice for the state of Ohio," said DeWine. "He's one of us."

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

THE NEW SWINGING SUBURBS — "New boundaries, new dynamics have Democrats hopeful in Michigan swing district," by WaPo's Marianna Sotomayor in Grand Rapids: "Even as Republican confidence about winning back control of the House grows in the final stage of the midterm campaign, races such as the one in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District could complicate the GOP's task. The ascent of JOHN GIBBS, the Republican nominee in the district, was in large measure the result of Trump's continued dominance in the party and the desire to oust members such as [Rep. PETER] MEIJER , who voted to impeach him. But by nominating Gibbs over the more moderate Meijer, Republicans have set up a more competitive race."

BATTLE FOR THE STATES

TRYING A DIFFERENT TACK — As Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER makes her closing pitch to voters in her race against Republican TUDOR DIXON, she's attempting to tie the two major issues of this year's election — abortion and the economy — into one neat bow. "With recent polls showing economic stress outranking abortion concerns, the embattled Democratic governor is making a pitch to voters and business owners: If they reelect her and pass a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights, she can lure employers and workers from neighboring states where anti-abortion laws have taken effect since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June," Alice Miranda Ollstein writes from Lansing .

NOT AIMING FOR THE TRUCK — "Why Gavin Newsom isn't even bothering to campaign for reelection," by Lara Korte: "Newsom's chances of winning reelection against a massively underfunded Republican are so assured, he's barely bothered to mention it. Instead, he's been focused on abortion rights, boosting fellow Democratic candidates, and combating what he sees as the rising tide of Republican extremism on the national stage.

"Sliding into a second term might be good for Newsom , but it could be bad for the party. The lack of a competitive race at the top of the ticket could mean low turnout — an unwelcome prospect for Democrats running in critical, closely-contested congressional races in Orange County and the Central Valley."

MILESTONE MARKER — "Wes Moore, Black Democrats aiming to make Maryland history," by AP's Brian Witte: "WES MOORE could soon make history if elected Maryland's first Black governor, and he's not alone: Rep. ANTHONY BROWN would be the state's first Black attorney general. ARUNA MILLER, Moore's running mate who immigrated from India, would be the first Asian-American elected statewide in Maryland."

ON THE DOCKET — "High stakes in N. Carolina court races with majority on line," by AP's Gary Robertson: "Registered Democrats hold a 4-3 advantage on the court, but Republicans would retake the majority for the first time since 2016 should they win at least one race. The seats carry eight-year terms, so barring unplanned retirements, Republicans would be assured of keeping the upper hand for at least 4 1/2 years if successful."

IN PENNSYLVANIA — The Forward's @jacobkornbluh : "DOUG MASTRIANO asked by an Israeli reporter (@nathanguttman of @kann_news) to respond to antisemitic attack on JOSH SHAPIRO and association with Gab. His wife REBBIE steps in and says: 'I'm gonna say we probably love Israel more than a lot of Jews do.'"

"Battle for Catholic vote inflames Pa. governor's race," by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette

HOT ADS

Via Steve Shepard

Georgia: "Guess who's coming to Thanksgiving," Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK's latest ad cheekily warns . Warnock jokingly tells a family that he "could be interrupting your Thanksgiving, because if nobody gets 50% of the vote, there'll be a runoff. And nobody wants that to happen."

Pennsylvania: The MITCH McCONNELL-linked American Crossroads' latest ad is a compilation of clips from TV news coverage of last week's Senate debate, highlighting Democrat JOHN FETTERMAN's difficulty in speaking and answering questions.

— Oregon: The narrator in Republican gubernatorial candidate CHRISTINE DRAZAN's latest ad says , "A vote for [Democratic candidate] TINA KOTEK is four more years of [Gov.] KATE BROWN, and we can't afford four more years of the same."

— New Hampshire: "Here's the deal," GOP Senate candidate DON BOLDUC begins his latest ad . "I won't change New Hampshire's abortion law or cut Social Security and Medicare for older Americans. [Democratic Sen.] MAGGIE HASSAN is lying, like all Washington politicians do."

— Arizona: GOP gubernatorial candidate KARI LAKE's latest ad is narrated by LORI ZEE GRAY, a Phoenix realtor who hits Democrat KATIE HOBBS for a racial discrimination lawsuit involving a state Senate staffer when Hobbs was minority leader in the chamber.

— Ohio: Again parachuting into a race national Republicans have abandoned, Sentinel Action Fund, a political arm of the Heritage Foundation, is up with a new ad attacking Democratic Rep. MARCY KAPTUR as a "typical career politician" too close to Biden. That's after both the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund pulled money from Republican J.R. MAJEWSKI, who participated in the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol and was credibly accused of lying about serving in combat overseas.

Nevada: Former Washoe County Sheriff MIKE HALEY endorsed Democratic Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO in Cortez Masto's latest ad . GOP Senate candidate ADAM LAXALT "was more focused on getting headlines for himself, rather than keeping Nevadans safe," Haley says.

Utah: Independent Senate candidate EVAN McMULLIN'S new ad features video of GOP Sen. MIKE LEE during his first campaign in 2010 (when Lee unseated then-Sen. BOB BENNETT) saying, "It will be my objective to phase out Social Security."

 

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SUNDAY BEST …

— Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) on whether she trusts Musk to run Twitter, on NBC's "Meet the Press": "No, I do not. … You guys look at commercials and you decide if they are false or not. That is not a requirement of these companies and we have to change the requirements on these companies. They are making money off of us. They are making money off of this violence."

— New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU on whether Republicans should cut attack ads against NANCY PELOSI after the attack on her husband, PAUL, on "Meet the Press": "I don't think there's any need for the attack ads. … Put all the politics aside, ignore the elections, she's going to get reelected fine. I mean, let's just make sure that she and her family are safe."

— Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) on the rhetoric that led to the attack of Paul Pelosi, on "Fox News Sunday": "I think all of us in the wake of this attack on Paul Pelosi need to say that we are going to stop demonizing folks, because I think those kinds of-- the sort of rhetoric that we've heard in too many ways in too many places, can lead to violence by a small number of Americans who think that when we describe our political opponents as our enemies, we're calling for them to be attacked."

— Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) on whether he's OK with Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS not attending Trump's rally with Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), on CNN's "State of the Union": "Well, that's a choice everybody makes."

— RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL on what happens if Republicans retake Congress, on "Fox News Sunday": "Joe Biden's always talked about how he wants to be unified and work across the aisle, well this is his chance, because this is going to be repudiation of the Democratic Party. They've had the reins for two years. And if Republicans have big wins, they better recognize they've got to come to the center and work with us on behalf of the American people."

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week's must-read opinion pieces.

Politics …

Policy …

Media … 

Culture/life …

BIDEN'S SUNDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.

 

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

President Joe Biden speaks with members of the media after voting with his granddaughter Natalie Biden during early voting for the 2022 U.S. midterm elections at a polling station on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, in Wilmington, Del.

President Joe Biden and his granddaughter Natalie Biden exit a polling station after voting early in Wilmington, Del., on Saturday, Oct. 29. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

7 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. TRAGEDY IN SEOUL: "S. Korea in shock, grief as 153 die in Halloween crowd surge," by AP's Kim Tong-hyung and Hyung-jin Kim: "Concerned relatives raced to hospitals in search of their loved ones Sunday as South Korea mourned the deaths of more than 150 people, mostly in their 20s and 30s, who got trapped and crushed after a huge Halloween party crowd surged into a narrow alley in a nightlife district in Seoul."

— WaPo visualization: "How and where the Seoul crush happened"

2. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: "Biden faces 'unpredictable' era with China's empowered Xi," by AP's Aamer Madhani: "Biden takes pride in having built rapport with [Chinese President] XI [JINPING] since first meeting him more than a decade ago, when they served as their countries' vice presidents. But Biden now faces, in Xi, a counterpart buoyed by a greater measure of power and determined to cement China's superpower status even while navigating strong economic and diplomatic headwinds."

"Trade takes a back seat to national security in Beijing and Washington," by WaPo's David Lynch and Ellen Nakashima: "After four decades of knitting a profitable partnership, both countries are now emphasizing greater self-sufficiency."

3. SCOTUS WATCH: "In Clash Over Affirmative Action, Both Sides Invoke Brown v. Board of Education," by NYT's Adam Liptak: "The challengers say the decision requires admissions policies to be colorblind, dooming race-conscious programs at Harvard and the University of North Carolina. The universities respond that Brown meant to do away with a racial caste system that subjugated Black students, and that the decision surely allowed efforts to assemble varied student bodies to ensure educational diversity."

Related read: "From Bakke to Fisher, evolution of affirmative action cases," by AP's Jessica Gresko

 

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4. IMMIGRATION FILES: "With a possible surge of Haitian migrants ahead, the Biden admin is weighing holding them in a third country or Guantanamo," by NBC's Julia Ainsley: "Currently the White House National Security Council is asking the Department of Homeland Security what number of Haitian migrants would require the U.S. to designate a third country, known as a 'lily pad,' to hold and process Haitian migrants who are interdicted at sea, and what numbers would overwhelm a lily pad country and require Haitians to be taken to the U.S. Navy base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba."

5. ON YOUR FYP: "Biden's Popping Up on TikTok Even Though It's Banned in the White House," by Bloomberg's Justin Sink: "For now, there's no official White House account on the social media network, and Biden's digital strategy team has no relationship with the content team at TikTok in the way it does with other leading social media sites. To monitor emerging trends on the platform, [White House director of digital strategy ROB] FLAHERTY occasionally uses an old, personal iPod Touch device that can access the service without putting White House data at risk."

6. MUSK READ: "Elon Musk Is Said to Have Ordered Job Cuts Across Twitter," by NYT's Kate Conger, Ryan Mac, Sheera Frenkel and Mike Isaac

7. AILING AMERICA: "U.S. storm survivors: We need money faster, less red tape," by AP's Wayne Parry

 

DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Luke Bryan brought Ron DeSantis up on stage at his concert.

Gretchen Whitmer is the subject of the hottest new rap : "Gretch Did."

WHAT PLAYBOOKERS ARE READING: A roundup of the most-clicked links from the past week in Playbook.

1) "The Trump Tapes: 20  interviews that show why he is an unparalleled danger," by Bob Woodward

2) The 2022 General Election Early Voting Statistics

3) Brian Cuban's run-in with George W. Bush

4) "Tucker Carlson lashes out at GOP campaign chief in irate private call," by Axios' Jonathan Swan

5) "J.D. Vance Has a Burnt Monkey Testicle Problem," by Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson

TRANSITION — David Osborne is now senior fellow for labor policy at the Commonwealth Foundation. He most recently was CEO of Americans for Fair Treatment and continues as of counsel to Goldstein Law Partners LLC.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Ben Barasky, a senior manager in Vanguard's global public policy group, and Madeleine Cereghino, director of government relations at Americans for Peace Now, welcomed Theodore Braillard Barasky on Friday. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Maggie Haberman … Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) … Ivanka Trump (4-0) … NBC's Andrea MitchellMitch Glazier of the Recording Industry Association of America … Mitch Stewart of 270 Strategies … Targeted Victory's Rebecca SchieberDavid Krone … POLITICO's Ally Mutnick, Bill Mahoney, Julia Littleton, Willie Allen and Annabelle Dickson … WaPo's Lizette AlvarezScott Fay Lauren Zelt of Zelt Communications … Lindsay Jancek Treasury's Paul RosenIan MillhiserEdwin Foulke (7-0) … former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) … former Reps. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa), Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.), Tim Roemer (D-Ind.) and Joe Heck (R-Nev.) … Nu Wexler of Seven Letter … Advoc8's Laura Mullen … Dentons' James RichardsonMichael Petricone ... Jeremy Holden ... Robert CaroLaurence LeamerLondyn Marshall of Carbon180 … Cat Duffy of NHeLP

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