| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  Just nine weeks out from election day, the fight for control of the 50-50 Senate is a toss-up. | LM Otero, File/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | TODAY — Nine weeks until Election Day. The Senate is back in session. Primary day in Massachusetts. ( Read the AP primer ) Labor Day has long served as the unofficial kickoff of election season: More voters start to pay attention, political TV ads become inescapable, volunteers knock on doors and pollsters adjust their samples from "registered voters" to "likely voters." Now, with Labor Day behind us, here's the lay of the land just nine short weeks away from Election Day, per POLITICO's just-updated forecast : — The Senate: Toss-up (Previously: Lean Republican) — The House: Likely Republican (Previously: Likely Republican) What's behind that change in Senate ratings? Steve Shepard sees four key factors : (1) the political environment has improved for President JOE BIDEN and Democrats, (2) the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe has energized supporters of abortion rights, (3) GOP candidates have struggled in major swing states, and (4) Dems have (slightly) expanded the map. MORE ON THE GOP'S SENATE WOES — "Republicans this election cycle thought they had finally achieved a breakthrough with suburban women after years of losing support," Natalie Allison reports this morning. "Now, as the primary season has all but ended, the GOP is back where it once was: Appealing directly to skeptical female voters, the women whose support will make or break the party's drive to retake the Senate majority." Said one anonymous GOP strategist working on Senate races: "Our problem is particularly white middle-aged women. … We need to soften our guys." One way they're doing that: "One after the other, Republican … male candidates have begun putting their wives in front of the camera to speak directly to voters in new television ads." — Ohio: "J.D. VANCE's wife, USHA, sat at a kitchen table talking about Vance's hardships as a child and being raised by his grandmother." — Arizona: "CATHERINE MASTERS sat in the couple's home and discussed her husband's [BLAKE MASTERS'] motivation to run for Senate, a video interspersed with footage of their three young boys." Worth noting: Per Natalie, since winning the GOP nomination, Masters has "adjusted his stance from favoring a far-reaching national abortion ban to one that only applies to third-trimester pregnancies." — Colorado: "CELESTE O'DEA, the wife of Colorado GOP Senate nominee JOE O'DEA , was the latest spouse to be featured in the series of Republican ads. The spot launched just days after O'Dea's campaign released a digital video featuring his adult daughter discussing her father's support for 'abortion rights,' access to contraception and same-sex marriage." — Nevada: "ADAM LAXALT's wife, JAIME , sat next to him on a sofa as they talked about his difficult childhood. The ad shows photos of a young Laxalt and his single mother." FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Today, the DSCC is launching its first general-election TV ad campaign against Laxalt, hammering the nominee over his stance on abortion rights as part of a previously announced $33 million independent expenditure effort. Watch the 30-second spot THE HOUSE IS A DIFFERENT STORY — It's true that things don't look quite as bad for Dems as they did, say, three months ago. But when it comes to the House, there's still this reality: "Republicans may not need to flip any districts that Biden carried in 2020 to reclaim the majority," Ally Mutnick, Sarah Ferris and Elena Schneider write in a curtain-raiser this morning. "In all, Republicans need to net only five seats to win the gavel. And while Democrats may be poised to mitigate some losses, Republicans say there's still little chance the party's summertime surge can overcome the stacked map." Among the reasons the GOP will likely eke it out: a historic number of Democratic retirements, redistricting advantages and Democratic incumbents in Trump territory. "Despite the undeniable shift in momentum toward Democrats, some Democrats say privately that a good night for their party would be limiting the GOP to single-digit gains," the trio write, adding that "[e]ven that scenario reflects a massive shift in the political environment — and in Democrats' expectations — since just a few weeks ago." Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids: FDA misses deadlines as flavored e-cigs hook more kids.
The FDA has missed deadline after deadline to protect our kids from nicotine-loaded flavored e-cigarettes. This week marks one year since a court-ordered deadline for the FDA to take action, but addictive flavored vapes are still on the market.
Learn more about how FDA delays put kids' health at risk. | | | FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS — As the Senate returns today, Burgess Everett, Marianne LeVine and Sarah Ferris break down the issues that look set to consume Capitol Hill this fall. Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) tells them she wants votes on codifying same-sex marriage rights and reforming the Electoral Count Act before the midterms. But it's not clear if Dems will go much beyond confirming judges and funding the government if Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER isn't certain he has the votes. Also (potentially) on the docket: capping insulin prices and tackling permitting reform. And Schumer could cancel the October session to give candidates more time to campaign. BIDEN'S CLOSING ARGUMENT FOR 2022 — In speeches on his Labor Day trek through the swing states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Biden zeroed in on his closing argument for the midterm campaign. Eugene tagged along as Biden bounced from Milwaukee to just outside of Pittsburgh. It was Biden at his most giddy — out of Washington and able to spend time shaking hands and taking pictures on the rope line. At each stop, Biden hit the crowd with some of the obvious legislative high points of his administration: enactment of the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the CHIPS bill and the Inflation Reduction Act. But the tentpole was something else: the idea that former President DONALD TRUMP and his closest allies constitute a threat to American democracy. — In Wisconsin: "Not every Republican is a MAGA Republican. Not every Republican embraces that extreme ideology. I know because I've been able to work with mainstream Republicans my whole career. But the extreme MAGA Republicans in Congress have chosen to go backwards — full of anger, violence, hate and division." Worth noting: Biden especially laid into GOP Sen. RON JOHNSON on Social Security and prescription drug prices. Lt. Gov. MANDELA BARNES, Johnson's Democratic opponent, did not join Biden at the event. More from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel — In Pennsylvania: "[D]emocracy is really at stake. You can't be a democracy when you support violence when you don't like the outcome of an election. You can't call yourself a democracy when you don't, in fact, count the votes that people legitimately cast. … And so, folks, look, we have a choice. Trump and the MAGA Republicans made their choice. We can choose to build a better America, or we can continue down this sliding path of oblivion to where we don't want to go." Look for this to stay a centerpiece of Biden's stump speech. It resonates with Democrats. But beyond politics, Biden's aides and allies tell Playbook this is something the president is personally fired up about — and Biden has regained a bit of his swagger after months of rough going. A parting thought: Will this message centered on democracy, MAGA and Trump be scrapped if, say, gas prices go back up, now that OPEC+ has decided to cut production slightly in October? PLAYBOOK AT CODE — Ryan is in Los Angeles this week covering the annual Code Conference, which for 2022 has a media- and politics-heavy roster of speakers, including Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG, TIM COOK, MARK CUBAN, MATHIAS DÖPFNER, ANAND GIRIDHARADAS, ALEX HOLDER, ROBERT IGER, LAURENE POWELL JOBS, Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.), Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.), MIKE MURPHY, California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM, OLIVIA NUZZI, JEN PSAKI, EVAN SPIEGEL and KARA SWISHER, Code's longtime host and organizer. Drop Ryan a line if you'll be there, and see you at the poker table!
| | | | A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids:   | | | | | BIDEN'S TUESDAY:
9 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.
1:15 p.m.: Biden will hold a Cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room, with VP KAMALA HARRIS attending.
The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 11 a.m. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at noon.
THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up JOHN LEE's judicial nomination, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m.
THE HOUSE is out.
BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD:
Wednesday: The Bidens will host the Obamas for the unveiling of their White House portraits.
Thursday: Biden will go to a DNC event at National Harbor.
Friday: Biden will travel to Licking County, Ohio, for the groundbreaking of the new Intel semiconductor facility, speaking about manufacturing and the CHIPS and Science Act. Then he'll head to Wilmington, Del.
Saturday: Biden will return to the White House.
Sunday: In remembrance of 9/11, Biden will speak and go to a wreath-laying ceremony at the Pentagon. | | | | | | LONDON PLAYBOOK IS A MUST-READ. As the U.K. Conservative Party elects its new leader, subscribe to POLITICO's London Playbook for free and receive the latest news, learn who is backing whom, and what these results mean for the future of Britain. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
| 
President Joe Biden speaks to a gathering of union workers at Laborfest on Monday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT MASTER OF HIS FATE — U.S. District Judge AILEEN CANNON on Monday ordered the appointment of a special master and temporarily barred the Justice Department from continuing to review the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago, citing the risks of the documents becoming public and damaging Trump. The Trump appointee tapped the special master to check for potential attorney-client or executive privilege in the materials, a significant victory for the Trump legal team after weeks of setbacks. The 24-page order Next up: The two sides have until Friday to propose potential candidates. Now, per Kyle Cheney, Nick Wu and Andrew Desiderio, "it seems likely that the process could delay by weeks or months the government's investigation." How it's playing: Legal experts called Cannon's ruling exceptionally favorable to Trump and said her reasoning was "vulnerable to being overturned if the government files an appeal, as most agreed was likely," NYT's Charlie Savage reports. Her order heavily emphasized Trump's status as a former president to an extent some specialists said was unwarranted. RYAN GOODMAN , a New York University law professor: "Judge Cannon had a reasonable path she could have taken — to appoint a special master to review documents for attorney-client privilege and allow the criminal investigation to continue otherwise … Instead, she chose a radical path." ALL POLITICS THE LAST FRONTIER — After Democrat MARY PELTOLA flipped Alaska's House seat in a special-election upset, some Republicans hoped that either SARAH PALIN or NICK BEGICH III would drop out of the race to make the path to victory easier on the November ranked-choice ballot. That's not going to happen: Both candidates ignored the other's entreaties and remained in the race as of Monday's 5 p.m. deadline, report the Anchorage Daily News' Sean Maguire, Emily Goodykoontz and Nathaniel Herz. Libertarian CHRIS BYE will also be on the ballot. THE YOUTH VOTE — The nonpartisan group Vote.org is launching a $10 million drive to get Americans ages 18-30 registered, engaged and voting, Madison Fernandez scoops this morning . The "Vote Ready" campaign, which will focus especially on people of color, constitutes the group's largest-ever outlay targeted specifically to youth. Having registered 381,000 new voters since the 2020 election, Vote.org is aiming to hit 1 million by November. Partnering with TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and others, the organization will home in on Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. TURNING TO TURNOUT — Community Change Action is kicking off a $10 million effort to get low-propensity voters of color to the polls, aiming to bolster Democratic candidates, Elena Schneider scoops. The six states where the super PAC and nonprofit will principally focus are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin, along with some House races in California, New Jersey, Ohio and Oregon. The approach will encompass everything from phone banks to paying micro-influencers.
| | | | A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids:   | | | THE WHITE HOUSE VP FILES — Harris sat down with The Nation's John Nichols for a Labor Day interview about the state of labor relations and the administration's work on bolstering unions. Organized labor leaders have plenty of praise for Harris in the piece, which traces her own personal history with worker advocacy, the impact of the pandemic on the workforce, and how she sees current labor policy debates: "We need to pass the PRO Act." Harris says she never tried a grape until she was in her 20s, having grown up amid United Farm Workers-inspired grape boycotts in California: "I remember the first time I had a grape, I went, 'Wow! This is quite tasty.' It was absolutely ingrained so deeply in me: Never cross a picket line." FWIW, the N.Y. Post's Steven Nelson is already casting some doubt on the story: "Eating table grapes was shunned by labor activists from the time Harris was 19 to 36 — meaning Harris would have indeed flouted a picket line if her story is true." — Harris also spoke out on behalf of workers at a Labor Day event in Boston, where she was "connecting the fight for a fair workplace to the broader battles for human rights across the country," reports The Boston Globe's Jeremy Fox. POLICY CORNER THE MONKEYPOX CONUNDRUM — Even as the Biden administration mounts a major drive to vaccinate queer men against monkeypox, they're betting heavily on a largely unproven Jynneos jab that amounts to a significant gamble by public health officials, Krista Mahr reports this morning. Even so, "[m]any scientists support the effort, saying the benefit of getting vaccinated outweighs the risk." IMMIGRATION FILES — Farmers are urging the Senate to take up the House-passed Farm Workforce Modernization Act, which would make immigration reforms that farmers say would be a significant labor help, NBC's Safia Samee Ali reports . The Senate version, led by MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho) and MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.), faces uncertain prospects and opposition from some worker advocates who think it takes the wrong approach. But proponents say the changes it would make, including reforming the H-2A visa system and giving undocumented farmworkers a path to citizenship, would help tackle worker shortages and high prices. — Related read: "Biden Administration Has Admitted One Million Migrants to Await Hearings," by NYT's Eileen Sullivan ALL ABOUT CHIPS — The Commerce Department has released its plan for administering the $50 billion CHIPS for America Fund aiming to bolster the country's semiconductor industry, NYT's Ana Swanson reports. "'This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, a once-in-a-generation opportunity, to secure our national security and revitalize American manufacturing and revitalize American innovation and research and development,' [Commerce Secretary GINA] RAIMONDO said. 'So, although we're working with urgency, we have to get it right, and that's why we are laying out the strategy now.'" WAR IN UKRAINE FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE — Moscow added dozens more Americans to its personal sanctions list Monday. Among those now permanently barred from Russia: Raimondo, Sens. KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.), MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.), MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.), KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) and PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.), and actors SEAN PENN and BEN STILLER. More from the AP JUDICIARY SQUARE A DIFFERENT KIND OF COURT EXPANSION — The federal court system's backlogs got even worse during the pandemic, leading some attorneys and advocates from both parties to call for an expansion of lower courts, the Washington Examiner's Kaelan Deese reports. MEDIAWATCH MILESTONE — Foreign Affairs marks its 100th birthday today. "The central claim of the magazine's first-ever essay — that a good foreign policy demands deep, open, and broad debate — may no longer seem as striking as it did in September 1922," editor-in-chief Daniel Kurtz-Phelan writes in an introduction to the new September/October issue. "Yet all we do is meant to fulfill that commitment, one as vital now as it was 100 years ago." The magazine is rolling out a redesigned print look for the occasion.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Richard Burr will be out from the Senate this week as he recovers from hip replacement surgery. Leonard ("Fat Leonard") Francis has gone missing weeks before he was set to be sentenced in a massive Navy corruption case. John Sullivan's wife, the lawyer Grace Rodriguez, died of cancer Monday, just a day after he left his post as U.S. ambassador to Russia for family reasons, per Nahal Toosi. IN MEMORIAM — "Moon Landrieu, mayor who bridged Black and White New Orleans, dies at 92," by Nola.com's John Pope: "He oversaw the completion of the Superdome and the reshaping of the Central Business District as skyscrapers and major hotels took root. And before moving on to a Cabinet post in President Jimmy Carter's administration and later to a state appeals court judgeship, he handed the keys to an integrated City Hall in 1978 to New Orleans' first Black mayor, Ernest N. 'Dutch' Morial, starting a succession of African-American leaders interrupted only by Landrieu's son, Mitch, who took office in 2010." TV TONIGHT — PBS' "Frontline" kicks off its new season tonight with a two-hour special on "Lies, Politics and Democracy" from Michael Kirk. It's billed as an "epic examination of Trump's influence on the Republican Party, the choices made by key players and party leaders, and the mounting threats to American democracy," with reporting from Tim Alberta and Jelani Cobb. First look FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Karen Harned is now chief legal officer of Job Creators Network's Legal Action Fund, where her first focus will be leading the legal push against Biden's student debt policy. She previously was executive director of the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Legal Center. — Steve Taylor is joining Integer as a principal. He most recently was head of government relations and public policy for United Way Worldwide, and is a Senate Judiciary alum. TRANSITIONS — Justin Kidd is joining Rep. Lauren Underwood's (D-Ill.) office role as comms director. He previously was associate VP of strategy at Do Big Things, and is a Barack Obama and Tammy Duckworth campaign alum. … GOP agriculture policy expert Danielle Beck is joining Invariant's government relations team. She most recently was at the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. … … Arielle Kane is joining FamiliesUSA as director of Medicaid initiatives. She most recently has been director of health care at the Progressive Policy Institute. … Joe Nolan is joining Lockheed Martin as a senior manager for government and political affairs. He previously was a manager for public policy at Amazon, and is a Thom Tillis alum. WEDDINGS — Andrew Freedman, executive director of the Coalition for Cannabis Policy, Education and Regulation and SVP at Forbes Tate Partners, and Tracy Akashi, a senior manager of corporate development at Salesforce, got married Saturday in Petaluma, Calif. They were originally neighbors and got to know each other over the course of the pandemic, eventually becoming a couple. They are proud parents to pup Jax. Pic … Another pic — Licy Do Canto, managing director for the APCO D.C. office and global headquarters, and Milly Chirinos, VP for DEI comms at JPMorgan Chase, got married recently in Costa Mujeres, Mexico. They met at a Hispanic Heritage Month event in D.C. Pic — Claire Chu, senior China analyst at Janes and a national security fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Alex Sykes, VP at Grandview Property Partners, got married Sunday at DAR Constitution Hall. They met on Bumble in 2016. Instapic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Bill Keating (D-Mass.) (7-0), Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), Danny Davis (D-Ill.), Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) … former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (6-0) … Carly Fiorina … Brittany Bramell Punaro … Matt Littman … Ryan Mahoney … LizziOakese Ulmer … Peter Barnes … Jana Barresi of Lowe's … Elizabeth Vargas (6-0) … Bloomberg's Jason Schechter … POLITICO's Krystal Campos and Jack Larsen … AgencyIQ's Kari … NYT's Paul Volpe … Meredith McPhillips … NAW's Liz Shrum … CNN's Tala Alrajjal … Camilo Vilaseca of Evan McMullin's Utah Senate campaign … Fox News' Gillian Turner … Clyde Prestowitz of the Economic Strategy Institute … Brian Abrams … WaPo's Brianna Tucker … NPR's Claire Harbage … former Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter … Jessica Goldstein … former Reps. Sander Levin (D-Mich.) (92), John Kline (R-Minn.) and Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) ... Kevin Rieg ... Scott McCrary … Douglass Daniel … John Hagner … Howard Zucker … ROKK Solutions' Eva Miller … Zeke Emanuel … Kathy Grannis Allen Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids: Kids can't ignore deadlines. Neither should the FDA.
When kids miss deadlines for assignments, they face consequences. But the FDA has repeatedly missed deadlines to protect kids from flavored e-cigarettes, defying Congress and courts.
First, the FDA missed a court-ordered deadline to decide what e-cigarettes can stay on the market. Then the FDA missed a deadline set by Congress to clear the market of unauthorized – and illegal – synthetic nicotine products, including vape brands popular with kids.
The agency's dangerous inaction lets tobacco companies hook more kids with flavored e-cigarettes.
To protect our kids, the FDA must end the delays and eliminate all flavored e-cigarettes now. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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