| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | | It's the day after Labor Day, aka the unofficial start of the fall campaign sprint. With just nine weeks to go until Election Day, here are some landscape-defining trends to keep an eye on: Abortion: Abortion policies are shaping candidates' messaging in the final stretch before midterms. As our Natalie Allison reports, Republican candidates are appealing directly to skeptical female voters who will make or break the party's drive to retake the Senate majority. Beyond candidates clarifying — and sometimes softening — their anti-abortion stances, a number of Republican candidates have aired TV ads featuring their wives, including Blake Masters in Arizona, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, Joe O'Dea in Colorado and Rep. Don Bacon in Nebraska. Internal Republican polling has shown "abortion to be the No. 2 issue to voters behind inflation, suggesting that it's important for Republicans to quickly correct and control the message on abortion — and then move on," Natalie writes. Appealing to female voters has long been an issue for Republicans. And while the economy has remained a top issue for the electorate, as the GOP wants, polling has shown that abortion continues to rise as voters make their decisions. Democracy: Democrats have condemned their Republican opponents for their involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and unwillingness to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. But across the board, it hasn't been highlighted in campaign ads compared to inflation, abortion or gun laws because it's just not as tangible as those issues. But getting closer to the midterms, it may become more apparent. A CBS News/YouGov poll from the final week of August found that 72 percent of Americans believe that democracy is either somewhat or very threatened — around the share who felt the same in January 2021. In her bid for reelection in Ohio's 9th District, Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur has been focusing heavily on GOP opponent J.R. Majewski's actions in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021, airing TV ads on the topic since the summer. Most recently, she features a police officer sharing the same sentiment. Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) also released an ad focusing on the Jan. 6 Capitol riot . "I will not let anyone rewrite history," she says. "MAGA Republicans want to seize power in this year's election. Our democracy is in real danger." And with President Joe Biden's recent string of speeches about "extreme MAGA Republicans," the messaging on democracy certainly is coming to the forefront. Redistricting: Things have been looking up for Democrats over the summer. But that might not be enough for them to maintain control of the House. The drive for Democrats to hold the majority in the House has been hampered by an historic number of Democratic retirements, setbacks in redistricting and the fact that several Democratic incumbents are running in Trump-leaning territory, Ally Mutnick, Sarah Ferris and Elena Schneider report. Republicans only need to net five seats to win control. "While redistricting didn't tilt as heavily to Republicans as some expected, the GOP emerged from the process with a healthy cushion of new GOP districts. They added deep red seats around Nashville, Atlanta and Houston and in eastern Montana. In Florida alone, Republicans are likely walking away with four new districts. Any path for a Democratic majority would mean erasing those gains by flipping GOP-held seats," they write. "After subtracting the seats Republicans look set to gain almost automatically after redistricting, Democrats face another hurdle: defending roughly a dozen Trump-won seats that Democratic members currently hold."
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| And be sure to check out our updated Election Forecast, where the fight for the control of the Senate is now a toss-up. It previously leaned Republican. "A number of factors contributed to Democrats' resurgence, but the declining national headwinds facing the party are most responsible. Democratic voters are energized after the Supreme Court's abortion decision, and Donald Trump's constant presence in the spotlight is driving Democratic anger," our Steve Shepard writes. Happy Tuesday! I hope you all had a nice long weekend — your host just got back from a quick trip to the Music City. And speaking of music, Melissa Etheridge announced that she's hosting a fundraiser for MD-01 Democratic candidate Heather Mizeur next month. Any other fundraisers (musical or not) I should have on my radar? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Massachusetts primary: TODAY Days until the Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries: 7 Days until the general election: 63 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 76 Days until the 2024 election: 791
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| | | — Vote.org, the nonpartisan voter registration and turnout organization, is investing at least $10 million to engage young voters ahead of the midterm election. It's the largest investment the group has made for a program focused on youth registration. Read more on the get out the vote initiative from your host. — Community Change Action, a Democratic super PAC-nonprofit pair, is rolling out a more than $10 million voter mobilization program ahead of the midterms, aimed at turning out voters of color in six battleground states. It's aimed at animating low-propensity voters of color, a key constituency for Democrats facing a difficult midterm environment, when voters are already less likely to participate, POLITICO's Elena Schneider reports. — "The Federal Election Commission has dismissed a complaint that alleged GOP congressional candidate Derrick Van Orden unlawfully used campaign funds to pay for a trip to Washington, D.C., where he attended the rally that preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol — arguing the sum of money in question was too low to pursue," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Lawrence Andrea reports . "The commission split along party lines in their reasoning, as Democrats admonished Van Orden for his presence at the Capitol on Jan. 6 and Republicans claimed the expenses were warranted." — "Former President Donald Trump gave Rep. Lee Zeldin a $1.5 million boost at a fundraiser for the Republican gubernatorial nominee ahead of the Nov. 8 election against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul," the New York Post's Zach Williams reports. "Zeldin faces a big fundraising gap in his race against Hochul, who has argued to voters that Zeldin's support for Trump makes him too extreme to lead the Empire State." — "Tudor Dixon continues to badly trail Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in campaign fundraising after winning a five-candidate GOP primary Aug. 2, showing that major Republican donors have not quickly united behind her," the Detroit Free Press' Paul Egan writes. "Dixon didn't even get a check from the Michigan Republican Party, records show." Whitmer raised nearly $2.4 million from July 18 through Aug. 22 and has $14 million cash on hand. Dixon raised $686,000 in that period and has around $524,000 cash on hand. — The Colorado Senate race has caught the attention of many outside the state — but the outside spending doesn't show that. "Just under $9 million worth of TV ads have aired or been booked in the Senate contest this year, according to a Colorado Sun analysis of contracts filed with the Federal Communications Commission through Wednesday," report The Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul and Sandra Fish . "That compares with the nearly $46 million worth of TV ads that had aired or were booked before Sept. 1 in Colorado's 2020 Senate contest between Republican U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner and Democratic former Gov. John Hickenlooper. … NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund have yet to schedule TV time for the fall, which is a major indication the race isn't a priority, as is the fact that national Democratic groups haven't started spending in Colorado to shore up [Sen. Michael] Bennet."
| | | FIRST IN SCORE — EDF Action Votes is out with an ad against Republican candidate Yesli Vega in the race for VA-07. The spot features former U.S. Marshal Bobby Mathieson criticizing Vega's stance on the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot: "Watching Yesli Vega defend the criminals who attacked the Capitol makes me sick." Vega previously said that it was "a group of Americans exercising their First Amendment right" and that they've been unfairly persecuted. — Here's two ads featuring a party switch: Alek Skarlatos, the Republican candidate in OR-04, highlights a "lifelong Democrat" who said she voted for President Joe Biden but will vote for Skarlatos because "he's not going to forget about us, not going to forget about his community." And in VA-02, Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria features the former vice president of the Virginia Beach Republican Women's Association saying , "Republicans like Jen Kiggans want to take away a woman's right to choose. She thinks the government should make that personal decision for us. So I've made the decision to support Elaine Luria." — NRSC is echoing the too "extreme" sentiment regarding Sen. Mark Kelly's (D-Ariz.) abortion stance. "He even supports extreme last minute abortions right before baby's birth," the ad says. "This is Mark Kelly's radical, extreme America." Last month, Arizona GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters released a digital ad about his abortion policies — calling them "commonsense" compared to Kelly's "extreme abortion policies." Kelly earlier this year voted for the Women's Health Protection Act, which would have prevented states from banning abortions or putting in place requirements or restrictions that affect abortion access. — Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is out with an ad against opponent Beto O'Rourke "accusing the Democrat of advocating for defunding the police, a claim O'Rourke's campaign has said is not true," the Houston Chronicle's Jeremy Wallace reports. … O'Rourke's campaign on Friday announced it is reserving $10 million in TV ads, which "indicates that O'Rourke is ready to start advertising on TV more seriously," The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reports. "And while it will come after Abbott has had the airwaves to himself for over two weeks, it still represents a massive expenditure for a Democratic candidate for statewide office in Texas."
| | | PRIMARY WATCH — Massachusetts has its primary today. The Democratic nominee for governor is pretty much set — but not much else is, The Boston Globe's Matt Stout reports . "Yes, [Democrat Maura] Healey has no active opponent in her gubernatorial primary. But there's little sense of who might emerge from a three-way race to be her running mate. … Even the Republican gubernatorial primary has not been immune from September surprises. Conservative radio host Howie Carr's decision to back Chris Doughty and turn on Geoff Diehl, a longtime ally and fellow Donald Trump supporter, potentially portends a still-shifting race. Trump himself then waded into the primary Monday, joining a telephone rally in support of Diehl who — projecting confidence — released a slate of campaign events for after the primary."
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Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, left, is joined by former President Donald Trump as he speaks at a rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo | ON THE TRAIL — Former President Donald Trump campaigned with Republican Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano and PA-08 candidate Jim Bognet on Saturday in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. Trump called Oz "an incredibly successful man on television and medicine" and said Mastriano "supported me right from the beginning." Read coverage of the rally from POLITICO's Holly Otterbein and Shayna Greene. LONG READ — POLITICO's David Siders reports from the Minnesota State Fair: "[Minnesota Attorney General Keith] Ellison's reelection prospects would once have seemed secure. Since leaving Congress to run for state attorney general in Minnesota in 2018, Ellison, now 59, had compiled a record of progressive-pleasing litigation on issues ranging from climate change to abortion rights and opioids . … But for all of the places Democrats have exceeded electoral expectations in recent weeks — in the rejection of an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kansas, and in special elections in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York — they are still contending with some vulnerabilities that go beyond President Joe Biden's unpopularity or the electorate's anxiety about the economy, even in states as Democratic-leaning as Minnesota."
| | | | A WOMEN RULE CONVERSATION ON LEADING FROM THE GROUND UP: Join POLITICO's Women Rule on Sept. 15 for conversations focused on creating and leading sustainable, healthy and inclusive communities. The program will feature a Member Exchange panel followed by a keynote discussion exploring the most pressing issues facing women in their communities and women in leadership roles who are best positioned to solve these problems. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | — "If Republican Nikki Haley decides to run for president in 2024, she made a lot of friends this election cycle to call on for help," The Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd reports . "Haley's fall schedule is filling up with travel plans that will take her across the country to headline in-person campaign events designed to boost Republicans' odds in the upcoming midterm election. These trips will take Haley to key early presidential nominating states like New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, as well as battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Texas." Forty-eight out of the 53 candidates Haley endorsed over the last two years have won. The last outstanding endorsement is for Matt Mowers in the NH-01 GOP primary next Tuesday. CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Eating While Politicking Is Harder Than It's Ever Been. Here's Why." ( POLITICO Magazine ) | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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