| | | | |  | | By Calder McHugh | | | | 
Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke speaks at a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas. | Jordan Vonderhaar/Getty Images | COVER STORY — Just a few short years ago, Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams were among the Democratic Party's shiniest stars, two youthful candidates who electrified their parties even in defeat. While they came up just short in their longshot 2018 bids to win statewide office in Texas and Georgia, respectively, their promise was such that each sparked talk of their prospects on the national stage. They're back on the ballot again this year — Abrams in a rematch with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, and O'Rourke in a bid to unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — but this time the vibe is different. Both have consistently trailed their opponents in the polls. O'Rourke hasn't led in a single survey since he announced his candidacy last November, and Abrams is barely doing better. So what changed? What happened to these one-time Democratic supernovas? It's easy to blame the political environment — 2022 isn't as nearly favorable for Democrats as 2018 was. But that's not the whole story. Their anointment as the future of the Democratic Party — young, dynamic and erudite — led to glossy magazine profiles and soft press coverage that may have burnished their national profiles, but did little to advance their prospects among voters who weren't already inclined to support them. O'Rourke announced his candidacy for president in 2019 with an Annie Leibowitz-shot Vanity Fair cover. Abrams was the subject of a Vogue profile that asked whether she can ' Save American Democracy.' A Washington Post piece styled her like a superhero, with a cape, and asked whether she'd be vice president despite never holding elected office above the Georgia House of Representatives. "In order for Democrats to overperform in purple to red states, they need to be able to differentiate themselves from the national brand," said Marcela Mulholland, the political director at Data for Progress, a progressive think tank and polling firm. "Partaking in this high profile national media just makes it more difficult for [O'Rourke and Abrams] to go back to their home states and be able to have a persuasive message." The two also took stances that weren't necessarily helpful in red-tinted states. Before leaving the presidential primary race, O'Rourke won raucous applause on a debate stage for asserting, "Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15, your AK-47." Back home in gun-friendly Texas, that position didn't resonate nearly as well.
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Stacey Abrams campaigns for Biden in 2020. | Ethan Miller/Getty Images | For her part, Abrams was haunted by the conclusion of the 2018 governor's race, where she initially refused to concede, alleging voter suppression and that the result didn't accurately reflect the will of the people. She's been explaining herself ever since, aiming to draw a distinction between her position and the accusations of election fraud made by former President Donald Trump. O'Rourke and Abrams are now trying to stuff the genie back into the bottle. O'Rourke's campaign website leads with a video titled "Beto O'Rourke is a fourth-generation Texan." Abrams talks about fighting for Medicaid expansion, relieving medical debt and helping small businesses stay afloat. They are running on issues with an eye toward winning over independents, not just the Democratic base. That more modest approach is one that Rep. Tim Ryan has employed in Ohio's open Senate race, where the Democratic congressman is running even with Republican J.D. Vance. Like O'Rourke, Ryan made a short-lived, if less flashy, bid for president in 2020. Yet in a state that's become increasingly unfriendly to Democratic candidates, Ryan is showing some success winning over Republicans and independents — at present, he leads Vance by a single percentage point, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. "Incentives are so strong on social media and different media opportunities that come with a heightened political brand," Mulholland said. "But can you imagine the Vanity Fair Tim Ryan cover?" Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh.
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Members of a brigade of the company LUMA work restoring energy on Sept. 20, 2022, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. | Jose Jimenez/Getty Images | LONG ROAD AHEAD — Puerto Ricans still trying to recover from Hurricane Fiona have a plea for the Biden administration: Don't forget about us. Even before Florida suffered its own devastating hurricane landfall Wednesday, community and nonprofit leaders in Puerto Rico were criticizing the Biden administration for what they call missteps in the government's response to Fiona, writes Gloria Gonzalez. Those include not initially covering all of Puerto Rico in President Joe Biden's declaration of a major disaster, as well as a slow flow of federal aid to communities that experienced catastrophic flooding after receiving 20 to 32 inches of rain. Now, some in the U.S. island territory fear that the undeniable recovery needs in Florida, after the state's pummeling by Category 4 Hurricane Ian, will shift attention and resources away from Puerto Rico when it remains vulnerable. That won't happen, Biden said after a FEMA briefing today, adding that it is his intention to go to Puerto Rico. But some Puerto Ricans and advocates remain concerned. "We're going to be put on the backburner as always," said Gina DeJesus, an organizer with New York Communities for Change who is in Puerto Rico.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | Welcome to poll watcher, a new section from POLITICO Nightly that — with midterms fast approaching — will keep you locked in on polls that cut through the noise.
| | 27 percent The percentage of Pennsylvanians who view Republican candidate for governor Doug Mastriano favorably, according to a new poll from Franklin & Marshall . Mastriano's unfavorability is at 52 percent. His opponent, Josh Shapiro, is viewed favorably by 45 percent of Pennsylvanians and unfavorably by 33 percent. | | | | | | 
| — Biden speaks on Hurricane Ian aftermath: Biden today said there are early reports that Tropical Storm Ian caused substantial loss of life in Florida, as state and federal officials continued to help thousands of people affected by the catastrophic storm. Officials in Florida have yet to release official fatality totals, but the deadliest hurricane in Florida history was the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, which killed more than 2,500 in the state. Biden also said he plans to visit Florida once conditions allow. — Durham target heading to trial as probe winds down: Special Counsel John Durham's probe into the origins of the FBI investigation of the 2016 Trump campaign's ties to Russia is inching closer toward what's expected to be its final step. A federal judge today rejected Trump-Russia dossier source Igor Danchenko's motion to dismiss the charges that Durham indicted him on in November 2021 , which include five counts of lying to the FBI. The prosecution, with the trial set for October, is expected to be Durham's third and final before wrapping up his three-year probe and delivering a report on his findings to the Justice Department. — Biden administration scales back student debt relief for millions amid legal concerns: The Biden administration is curtailing its sweeping student debt relief program for several million Americans whose federal student loans are owned by private companies over concerns the industry would challenge it in court. The Education Department will no longer allow borrowers with privately held federal student loans to receive loan forgiveness under the administration's plan. — Senate passes funding bill to likely thwart weekend shutdown: The Senate approved a stopgap spending bill this afternoon that funds the government through mid-December, sending it to the House and likely averting a government shutdown that would hit on Saturday. The stopgap would fund the government through Dec. 16, granting congressional appropriators more time for talks on a broader funding package before the end of the year.
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Ukrainian infantrymen take part in a training exercise on near Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. | John Moore/Getty Images | 'LAND GRAB' — Western allies are rushing to come up with plans to respond to the Kremlin's forced annexation of parts of eastern Ukraine expected to be unveiled Friday, as Vladimir Putin pushes to consolidate dwindling gains in his faltering war, write Alexander Ward, Paul McLeary, Lara Seligman and Andrew Desiderio. Putin is slated to deliver a speech Friday announcing the annexation of four Russian-occupied regions, just days after his government held widely condemned referendums orchestrated to produce the results the Kremlin sought. In Washington, Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) unveiled legislation today that would cut off military and economic aid to any country that recognizes the "annexed" territories as part of Russia. The legislation would also pressure the Biden administration to punish Russia swiftly, and could be attached to the annual defense policy bill in the coming weeks. Graham said he sees no possibility of an off-ramp for Russia, particularly as Putin grows more provocative. "The world is not going to accept this annexation," Graham said. "The idea of an off-ramp other than him withdrawing completely from Ukraine is becoming less and less." Added Blumenthal: "It is a land grab. It's a steal. And it is another craven, brazen tactic by Vladimir Putin to test the West's support for Ukraine and we are having none of it."
| | | | | | | | | BLOCKED AND REPORTED — Morgan Meaker spent months looking for the team tasked with weeding out bots on Twitter . What constitutes a bot — and how this team spots them — is of huge consequence in the legal fight over owning Twitter. Read it on WIRED.
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A worker repairs energy lines during a power outage after Hurricane Ian passed through the area in Bartow, Florida. | Gerardo Mora/Getty Images | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
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