Monday, August 22, 2022

Who killed Dugina?

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Aug 22, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

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Happening Today

Russia's war against Ukraine is six-months-old this week. 

South Korea and the United States began their largest joint military drills in years .

The 8th Arms Trade Treaty conference starts today in Geneva. The treaty came into force in 2014, but guns still flow to governments guilty of human rights abuses, which the treaty is designed to prevent. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute calculates the annual arms trade is now worth $2.1 trillion.

 

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GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

WHO KILLED DUGINA?

Darya Dugina, the sanctioned daughter of Russian fascist propagandist Alexander Dugin was killed by a car bomb — while driving her father's car — Saturday evening. Dugina was herself a prominent extreme right-winger, appearing frequently on Russian media.

The only question that matters: Who wanted Dugin and/or Dugina dead, and what does it tell us about the state of the war, which is effectively in a stalemate?

Many questions, few answers: Was it an inside job? A professional hit? A message from Vladimir Putin — to those even more extreme than he — to shut up? Was Dugina the target, or rather her father ?

Russian authorities said in a statement Sunday that they believe the " crime was pre-planned and was of an ordered nature," and the FSB on Monday blamed Ukraine's security services for the attack. Meanwhile, a former Russian MP claims anti-Putin Russian partisans "The National Republican Army" is responsible for the car bomb.

Clarifying Dugin's relationship with Putin: According to recent reports, his personal relationship with Putin is not as close as it once was, and Kremlinologists wouldn't use the nickname "Putin's brain" anymore. While Dugin's thinking has permeated Russia's governing class over time, Ivan Ilyin is a better mark if you're looking for Putin's totalitarian inspiration.

The Dugina assassination tells us Putin's regime may be weaker than it looks, writes Mark Galeotti.

A satellite image shows the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Russian occupied Ukraine.

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Russian occupied Ukraine on Aug. 19, 2022. | Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies via AP

'WE DON'T WANT ANOTHER CHERNOBYL': Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, says he plans to discuss the issue of Ukraine's Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant with Putin. Erdoğan called the situation "a threat to the world."

The U.S., U.K., France and Germany discussed nuclear threats in Ukraine and from Iran in a phone call Sunday.

SANCTIONS BYPASS: Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Turkish Deputy Finance Minister Yunus Elitas that Russian entities and individuals were attempting to use Turkey to bypass Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's war in Ukraine, the department said.

UKRAINE WINNING THE CYBER WAR: Jeremy Fleming, head of GCHQ, the U.K. intelligence agency, writes in The Economist that "President Putin has comprehensively lost the information war in Ukraine and in the West," but worries about disinformation in Africa and elsewhere.

"Ukraine has proved itself to be an extremely effective cyber defender … we have arguably seen the most effective defensive cyber activity in history," Fleming wrote, also noting the irony that "Russian strikes took down the very networks they were trying to infect. They forced the Ukrainians to diversify and use alternative forms of communication that were more secure. That actually enhanced Ukrainian resilience."

ESTONIA — FENDS OFF CYBERATTACK: Estonia was subject to the most extensive cyberattack it has faced since 2007. "The attacks were ineffective. E-Estonia is up and running. Services were not disrupted. With some brief and minor exceptions, websites remained fully available throughout the day. The attack has gone largely unnoticed in Estonia," per Luukas Ilves, Estonia's chief information officer.

GERMANY — BETTING ON CANADIAN HYDROGEN AS RUSSIA TURNS OFF GAS, AGAIN: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz landed in Canada on Sunday for a three-day whistle-stop tour of the country, as Germany looks to deepen its trade ties with Ottawa and secure clean hydrogen. Officials from the two countries will discuss building new liquified natural gas terminals on Canada's Atlantic coast.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz shakes hands with Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is greeted by Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland as he arrives for a three-day visit to Canada in Montreal. | Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press via AP

Read an essential primer on the visit by our colleague Zi-Ann Lum here. Scholz and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dined at a Syrian restaurant in Montreal last night.

Trouble is brewing back home for Scholz with Russia's Gazprom announcing on Friday that it would shut the Nord Stream pipeline — again — for "preventive maintenance" between Aug. 31 and Sept. 2.

PAKISTAN — IMRAN KHAN HIT WITH TERRORISM CHARGES: In a dramatic escalation of a power struggle that has gripped the country for months, Pakistan's former prime minister, Imran Khan, has been charged under the country's anti-terrorism act, guaranteeing more turmoil. Khan fell out with the Pakistan's army earlier this year and later lost his majority in parliament after a series of defections.

SINGAPORE — SEX BETWEEN MEN TO BE DECRIMINALIZED: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the country will repeal a colonial-era law. "I believe this is the right thing to do," Lee said, while adding that Singapore's constitution will be amended to define marriage as being between a man and a woman.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA — FRAGILE AND A U.S. PRIORITY: Australia's northern neighbor and former protectorate is one of five priority countries under the U.S. Global Fragility Strategy. CSIS, in a new report, looks at why the country deserves attention in the context of competition with China. Those reasons range from PNG being one of the most biodiverse countries on Earth, to its wealth of gold, copper, silver and natural gas, and history of "extremely high levels of corruption and violence."

ECONOMY — AMERICAN COMPANIES BRINGING JOBS HOME AT RECORD PACE : "American companies are on pace to reshore, or return to the U.S., nearly 350,000 jobs this year, according to a report. … That would be the highest number on record since the group began tracking the data in 2010," writes the Wall Street Journal.

ECONOMY — ACCOUNTABILITY CORNER: The Business Roundtable recently opposed the Inflation Reduction Act, because it included a 15 percent minimum corporate tax. The tax clause fulfilled a Biden administration commitment to join a global tax deal, along with 136 other countries.

Facts of life: You can't believe in stakeholder capitalism and lobby against closing the biggest loopholes in the global tax system, because the two go hand-in-hand. You support both, or you support neither.

GLOBETROTTERS

BIDEN'S OTTAWA WHISPERER: POLITICO's Andy Blatchford sits down with Ambassador David Cohen — and takes a hard look at whether the U.S.-Canada relationship has improved, since Trump.

KLEPTOWATCH 

What a coincidence: More than a hundred Russian luxury cars are parked at Helsinki's airport. Are those cars owned by people taking advantage of the EU still allowing Russians tourist visas?

Seized Russian superyacht to be sold at first auction of Ukraine war. J.P. Morgan, not Ukrainians, will be the biggest winner of the sale of the Axioma, which was seized in Gibraltar earlier this year, after its billionaire owner Dmitry Pumpyansky was sanctioned.

ETHIOPIAN AIRLINES PILOTS FELL ASLEEP, MISSED LANDING: The pair were woken only by an alarm that went off after they missed their window to land at Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa. The Boeing 737-800 was flying on autopilot at 37,000 feet, according to a report by The Aviation Herald.

FLIGHT MISERY MAP: FlightAware tracks flight cancellations at America's biggest airports.

THE 27-YEAR-OLD IBM CONSULTANT SPENDING $1,000 A WEEK ON FOOD IN D.C.: A 27-year-old IBM consultant earning $225,000 a year has mightily annoyed some members of Washington's University Club with an eating diary she published in Bon Appétit, though the club itself has been happy to point its social media audience to the diary.

The punchline: The consultant manages to spend $1,000 a week at D.C. restaurants and bars, despite having access to free wine from the Club, on whose restaurant committee she serves. Her favorite dish: the warm shrimp salad at Le Diplomate. "Every Bastille Day, I try to have dinner at Le Diplomate." Cue: eye roll.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

MOVES

NSC ARRIVAL LOUNGE: Paula Garcia Tufro will be senior director for development, global health and humanitarian response at the National Security Council. She currently is chief of staff at the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

Blake Peterson is joining Meta to work in content policy regulation. She most recently was acting digital freedom coordinator at the State Department's Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy.

BRAIN FOOD

SHORT READ: Lockdown Xi and his Globetrotting Diplomat

FESTIVAL: The Big Anxiety, the largest mental health and arts festival in the world, runs from Sept. 21 to Oct. 15. Virtual access here.

Thanks to editor Ben Pauker, Daniel Lippman and producer Mallory Culhane. 

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