News : Newsom's path to D.C.

Monday, August 22, 2022

Newsom's path to D.C.

Aug 22, 2022

By Jeremy B. White, Lara Korte and Sakura Cannestra

Presented by Stop AB 257

THE BUZZ: Struggling to envision Gov. Gavin Newsom's path to the White House? Let's trace a map.

Imagine an incumbent president who's lost the base as his party braces for a midterm wipeout. The partisan malaise extends to a pervasively pessimistic electorate. Maybe the president's doldrums have afflicted his vice president, undercutting the number two's presumptive successor status. Meanwhile, let's posit a big-state governor has been trying to enthrall disillusioned voters by thrusting his thumbs in the eyes of Republicans whenever he can (hard to believe, we know).

The ingredients are there in the latest Berkeley IGS poll. California voters overwhelmingly don't want President Joe Biden to seek another term, including about half of Democrats. His approval rating is stuck at a mediocre 48 percent. A resounding three-quarters of voters believes America is veering in the wrong direction. And if you ask Democrats and independents whom they'd prefer to Biden, Newsom is tied for first with Sen. Bernie Sanders, the plurality pick for California Democrats in 2020. Kamala Harris was a few points behind.

Now for some caveats. The principal one: it's so early, and so many variables have yet to play out, that this poll's predictive power is exceedingly limited. "Undecided" was Democrats' top choice for Biden replacements. Newsom's popularity in a state that's twice elected him by landslide margins does not mean national viability. This poll is far removed from an actual race and the barrage of anti-Newsom attacks that would entail.

Most importantly, Biden maintains he will run again — and if he doesn't, many people doubt Harris would pass on seeking the top job just because of soft poll numbers. It's harder to imagine Newsom jumping in if he has to contend with the VP, thus carving up their shared base and likely alienating a key party pillar of Black women. California isn't South Carolina.

Despite that squall of headwinds, this type of poll is fuel for presidential positioning. Newsom's steadfast denial of 2024 interest becomes harder to credit with each day he spends attacking Republican governors in tweets and public appearances. At a minimum, he's keeping his options open — and it seems California voters are willing to entertain it.

GOP'S GUY — While Newsom has heaped Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with the scorn he formerly reserved for Trump, California Republicans aren't so ready move on. Two-thirds want Trump to run again, and the former president outpaced DeSantis in a hypothetical field. If Trump isn't in the picture, DeSantis is the clear CAGOP pick.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Monday morning. It's decision day for Newsom on legislation that would let Oakland, San Francisco and Los Angeles launch sanctioned drug consumption sites. Advocates wonder if the governor is basing his decision on the national response.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte .

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "They violated her, taking advantage of the fact that her daddy couldn't protect her. He was at the morgue." Vanessa Bryant testifies in her lawsuit against L.A. over graphic images from the death of husband Kobe and daughter Gianna.

TWEET OF THE DAY: GOP Assembly candidate @Joshua_Hoover on a Proud Boy running for school board after falling short for Assembly: "Perrine's brand of politics has no place in our community. That didn't stop Ken Cooley from spending over $200k boosting this Proud Boy's name ID in our Assembly primary. Cooley played with fire and now it's our community that will get burned if Perrine wins a school board seat."

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

A message from Stop AB 257:

AB 257 imposes a restaurant tax that will lead to higher prices at thousands of local restaurants in California. This bill would hurt our small business owners, their employees, and the communities they serve. Between skyrocketing food and gas prices, working families can't afford to pay another tax on meals.
Take Action

TOP TALKERS

ENERGY BEAT — "California nuke extension challenged in legislative proposal," by the Associated Press' Adam Beam and Michael R. Blood: "The legislative plan drops the idea of keeping the decades-old reactors running. Instead, it would funnel the $1.4 billion Newsom proposed for PG&E into speeding up other zero-carbon power and new transmission lines to get the electricity to customers."

DOUBLE PROTECTED — "Want a free vasectomy or condoms? California could soon have you covered ," by Kaiser Health News's Rachel Bluth: " If the Contraceptive Equity Act of 2022 passes, commercial insurance plans regulated by the state won't be allowed to impose out-of-pocket costs, such as copays, coinsurance or deductibles, on those modes of birth control."

A CRAPPY MYTH — " Column: Are pooches in San Francisco getting high off meth-laced poop? Conservatives hope so," by the Los Angeles Times' Anita Chabria: "It was a Twitter post, of course, that caused the feces to hit the viral fan. I won't name names because 1) I don't punch down and 2) I don't promote crap (usually). But the account of a well-known San Francisco basher posted this warning a few days ago."

CAMPAIGN MODE

MUSICAL MONEY: The California Teachers Association put $1 million toward dedicating general fund dollars to arts and music in schools. The Proposition 28 campaign has pulled in around $10 million so far without drawing formal opposition.

— " Sheriff Villanueva in tight race as challenger Robert Luna has edge in new poll," by the Los Angeles Times' Alene Tchekmedyian: "Retired Long Beach Police Chief Robert Luna has an early edge over incumbent Alex Villanueva in the runoff for Los Angeles County sheriff, with support for the candidates falling largely along political lines, according to a new poll by UC Berkeley co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times."

— "EXCLUSIVE: Recall Gascon Committee Knowingly Turned in Invalid Petition Signatures, Misled Donors and Volunteers," by Red State's Jennifer Van Laar: "And after San Franciscans got a recall against Chesa Boudin on the ballot then booted him in a historic election, there was no doubt in the mind of Angelenos that the Gascón's days were numbered."

FALLING OUT OF FLAVOR — "More Communities Are Giving Flavored Tobacco the Boot. Will California Follow? " by Kaiser Health News' Zinnia Finn: At issue is a 2020 state law that would have banned the sale of those products — but never went into effect. Within days of its passage, Big Tobacco launched a referendum drive to overturn the law."

— " Betting big: With $357 million raised, California gambling propositions already break spending records," by the Mercury News' Harriet Blair Rowan: "Since June 30, the groups facing off to control the potential bonanza of a California sports gambling empire raised an average $16.5 million per week, more than has been collected so far for three of the state's seven ballot measures the entire campaign."

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— "California sets new low unemployment record in July," by the Associated Press' Adam Beam: "California now has a slightly lower unemployment rate than Texas, but is higher than Florida and Alabama — all Republican-led states whose leaders California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has feuded with in recent months."

— "A rural California prison was set to close this summer. It's still open, and inmates want a say ," by the Los Angeles Times' Hailey Branson-Potts: "When it rains, water pours through the ceilings of the California Correctional Center in Susanville, sometimes flooding the cells of incarcerated men who have resorted to using soap to seal leaks."

REVIEWING AND REPORTING — " Top lawmakers outline changes to misconduct investigations following Chronicle reporting," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Sophia Bollag: "In a letter to staff, Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Lakewood (Los Angeles County) and Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, D-San Diego, said they are working to speed up investigations by the Legislature's Workplace Conduct Unit, known as the WCU, and improve communication with people who report or are accused of misconduct."

— "'We've turned a corner': California approves bullet train link from Central Valley to San Francisco," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Dustin Gardiner: "The line could open for service by as soon as 2033, the authority projects. Stations are slated for San Francisco International Airport/Millbrae and the Caltrain Mission Bay station at Fourth and King streets, which would eventually be replaced by a station in the basement of Salesforce Transit Center."

WORSENING WATER WOES — "Crisis looms without big cuts to over-tapped Colorado River ," by the Associated Press' Sam Metz and Kathleen Ronayne: "Any unilateral action from federal officials would likely move conversations from negotiating tables to courtrooms and delay action even longer."

— "Perspective: Culture Warrior and Housing Rebel: SF's State Senator, Scott Wiener, Carves a Fresh Path ," opines Dan Morain for the San Francisco Standard: "If he can keep making it work, it could represent a fresh approach for California Democrats who have largely vanquished the GOP only to find themselves caught in an intractable conflict between progressives and moderates."

— " LAUSD Superintendent Praises New City Ban On Homeless Encampments Near Schools," by LAist's Kyle Stokes: "Officials for both the city and school district have told LAist that enforcement is left up to the City of Los Angeles, and may vary by district. (Though intertwined, the city and Los Angeles Unified are different systems.)"

IT'S NOT PRIME TIME — " Amazon closing or delaying 9 California warehouses," by Orange County Register's Jeff Collins: "Amazon plans to scale back operations in West Covina, Oceanside, Hayward, San Leandro, Santa Rosa, Sonoma, Salinas and Bakersfield, MWPVL figures show."

A message from Stop AB 257:

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

— "The Biden administration remade ICE after Trump: But will it last?" by the Los Angeles Times' Hamed Aleaziz and Alejandra Reyes-Velarde: "Dramas playing out at the border are often the most attention-grabbing signs of immigration enforcement. How immigrants are treated in the interior of the country is less visible but equally telling."

SILICON VALLEYLAND

MISFIRE — "A Dad Took Photos of His Naked Toddler for the Doctor. Google Flagged Him as a Criminal." by the New York Times' Kashmir Hill: "Because technology companies routinely capture so much data, they have been pressured to act as sentinels, examining what passes through their servers to detect and prevent criminal behavior."

— "Crypto firm FTX gets warning from FDIC to stop 'misleading' consumers about deposit protection ," by CNBC's Ashley Capoot: "The FDIC said the companies must "take immediate corrective action to address these false or misleading statements." The agency said knowingly misrepresenting or implying that an uninsured product is FDIC-insured is prohibited by the Federal Deposit Insurance Act."

— " Whose Side Is The CPUC On? Not Low-Income Californians." by Forbes' Roslyn Layton: "In practical terms, low-income Californians could enjoy unlimited mobile data plans with the [Affordable Connectivity Program], but the [California Public Utilities Commission] wants to limit them to just 6 gigabits (GB) per month."

WHERE YOU GO — " TikTok Browser Can Track Users' Keystrokes, According to New Research," by the New York Times' Paul Mozur, Ryan Mac and Chang Che: "The research from Felix Krause, a privacy researcher and former Google engineer, did not show how TikTok used the capability, which is embedded within the in-app browser that pops up when someone clicks an outside link."

INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

HOLLYWOODLAND

— "After Astroworld catastrophe and Drakeo's stabbing, Live Nation faces mounting questions over concert safety," by the Los Angeles Times' August Brown: " The alleged breaches include disregarding crowd safety plans and hiring too few or poorly trained security and other personnel, creating potentially hazardous conditions for millions of fans who flock to concerts annually."

CANNABIS COUNTRY

— "The casualties of California legalizing pot: Growers who went legal," by the Washington Post's Scott Wilson: " The once-mystical heart of the nation's marijuana industry is dying, fast, strangled not by law enforcement but by the high taxes and baffling regulation that have crushed small farmers since state voters approved legalization almost six years ago."

MIXTAPE

— "Racial slurs, meth and cockroaches: A day in the life running a Tenderloin SRO," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Danny Nguyen.

— "Inside an Herbalife Heir's Fight for the Billion-Dollar Mountain of Beverly Hills," by Vanity Fair's Jennifer Gould.

— " Inside the 'nightmare that never ends' at San Francisco's 33 Tehama St.," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Rachel Swan.

CLASS IN SESSION — "California spent $400M improving enrollment at its universities. Could Sonoma State be next? " by the Sacramento Bee's Dante Motley.

— "Prominent retired justice returns gifts from disgraced lawyer Tom Girardi, her ex-boyfriend," by the Los Angeles Times' Harriet Ryan and Matt Hamilton.

— "State Sen. Scott Wiener's "best day ever" in San Francisco," by Axios' Nick Bastone.

BIRTHDAYS

SUNDAY: Steve Case of Revolution and the Case Foundation … Teresa Carlson … Sergey Brin … Jack Weiss … Peter Hamby of Snapchat and Puck … Rafael Reif … Greg Bell

SATURDAY: Ari Goldberg of the Center for Democracy & Technology … Google's Lauren Epshteyn … Ben LaBolt … Adam Ginzberg

Meta's Jen Nedeau Helm and Sabrina Siddiqui … Adrian Slater … Selena Strandberg … Charlotte Day-Reiss

A message from Stop AB 257:

AB 257 would establish new regulations for counter-service restaurants, creating a tax on working families' dining choices by forcing menu price increases. This bill will affect tens of thousands of counter service restaurants where customers pay first then eat. It creates a food council of unelected appointees to take the place of legislators and set wages and duplicative and conflicting workplace laws. This extra layer of decision-making will raise costs at these establishments, essentially creating a tax on working families' dining choices by increasing menu prices. Increased costs mean fewer local restaurant openings, slower job growth, fewer employees per shift, decreases in hours and less opportunity for career advancement. It's a lose-lose situation for everyone. Tell your legislator to STOP AB 257.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

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