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August 7th, 2022 | Issue 142 |
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Another week is in the books. As I alluded to last week, following the market close, I took my son on a fishing trip over the weekend. We went up to Michigan and spent some time on the lake, waking up early and casting our rods, setting up campfires at night. We had a great time and even got to go out on a boat for some deep-lake fishing. Our captain took us far into Lake Michigan, using an electronic fish finder, to the perfect spot. The sun was out, not a cloud in sight, and supposedly there were fish right below us. Unfortunately, the only thing that was not perfect was that we did not catch a single fish that day. (Couldn't even catch a cold.) We scanned the fishfinder and saw plenty of activity below us, but not a single nibble. We waited for hours, chatting with the captain and checking our lines occasionally. At the end of the day, we returned to shore just as we had left- fishless. Our captain, however, could not let us leave empty-handed. Before departing, he showed us his haul from the previous day. In that same spot, he was able to reel in fish after fish. So before we departed, the captain gave us a salmon and a walleye. We were elated. Although the fish were not caught by our rods, we felt fulfilled by our morning fishing trip. We spent the day on the lake, got to learn about a new type of fishing, cast actual deep-sea rods, and exchanged stories with a real sea captain. And then came home with two beautiful fish! That night, we made a campfire and successfully cooked fish soup over the open flames. Not once did my son seem bothered by the fact we did not catch a fish that day. Perhaps it was the perfect fishing spot even if we didn't catch anything. On the lake, our captain stressed the importance of patience. Some days he'd come out to the lake and spend hours before his rods would even register a bite. Likewise, he expressed the importance of getting up early, the early bird gets the worm, and in this case, the fish! The more time he'd give himself on the lake, the better his chances were of finding some properly hungry fish. And finally, the unpredictable nature of luck will play in all of this. While you can't account for the last one, the first two you certainly can. And that is something I also adhere to when trading. While some things you cannot predict or control, the things you can are the ones you should focus on. We did our best on the lake and together made great long-term memories. When I returned to my computer and portfolio on Monday, I looked for the things I could control and focused on doing them the best I could. This included responding to the latest earnings and economic reports which continue to dictate market movement at the moment. This is exactly what we did during my most recent Strategy Roundtable, which takes place weekly on YellowTunnel. It might be difficult to keep track of everything in the market, especially if you're going through it all alone. That is why I encourage you to join a trading community where you may interact and analyze with others. I recommend checking out our latest Roundtable webinar in its entirety below: |
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How To Trade a Bear Market Strategy Roundtable This week, the market was supported by good or optimistic earnings and opposed by mounting indications of price inflation and recession. After a much stronger-than-expected employment reading in July bolstered expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue aggressively raising interest rates in order to curb inflation, U.S. equities somewhat surprisingly fell late Friday. The United States created over 528,000 new employment in July, and the jobless rate fell to pre-pandemic levels. Estimates for the month neared 300,000 but were easily surpassed. The jobless rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%, while hourly earnings increased 15 cents, or 0.5%, to $32.27. While strong employment is traditionally an indicator of a strong economy, the robust report could stoke inflation fears and push borrowing costs even higher, some analysts fear. Elsewhere, earnings continued to impress with companies like Moderna, PayPal, and Starbucks seeing shares soar behind strong reports. For the most part, major name quarterly reports are behind us. Coinbase, Disney, and Spirit Airlines are some of the remaining major names still due to report next week. Also, next week, watch out for the latest core CPI data release. With the unpredictable nature of the market and the uncertainty ahead of us, I can't emphasize enough how vital it is for our readers and members of the Yellow Tunnel community to keep referring to our Live Trading Room so as to maintain a close tie of how our I and my AI platform is navigating us in and out of select trades. It's FREE and I highly encourage everyone to sign up to the Live Trading Room and keep checking in throughout the trading day. Every Monday and Wednesday, I highlight our best strategies and potential trading setups via the DISCORD server. It's the future of bringing together a trading community's total services, educational products, live chat venues, support, news, how-to tutorials, webinars, live-trading demonstrations, and tons of market analysis. It is incredibly interactive and full of crucial and timely information. Just go to: |
https://discord.gg/YjBfkaqGGu I also want to emphasize to traders how vital a stop-loss discipline is to winning and being successful in an unforgiving market. We employ specific stop-loss instructions with every trade. The buy and sell programs controlled by high-frequency related algorithms can create great profits or cause sudden losses, so it is imperative to maintain an element of controlling risk with each trade. |
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| | Vlad Karpel
YellowTunnel and Tradespoon Founder |
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P.S. Please see below for access to the Power Trading Live Strategy Roundtable presentation I recorded on Thursday, August 3rd. Click Here P.P.S. Join our Discord Community to participate in our Free Live Market Volatility Trading Room Session every Monday and Wednesday at 8:15 am CST. Click Here To Join |
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This week's choice is iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.) Traders should be able to find some stability in this key symbol in the treasury sector. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF provides exposure to long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and with the likely volatility to unfold in the next few weeks, this is a perfect haven. The fund's expense ratio is reasonable and its liquidity allows it to trade easily. Because of this, it has become a popular choice for investors seeking income from equities. Because of the current interest rates, which can drive up the price of bonds, it should be an excellent investment opportunity in the near future. |
With the current overbought nature of the market, this ETF has the potential to outperform the market and our A.I. arsenal is predicting it as well. Looking at our long-term forecast tool, our Seasonal Chart, seen above, shows a "higher" probability reading for the next 20-day period. The annual seasonal line has created a decent gap above the current price line and is signaling towards a prime opportunity. If the dollar is an indicator for upcoming market direction, TLT will likely see a nice boost... |
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Does it feel like wherever your money is invested, especially when the market is dipping, but even when the market is going up, there's no place to hide? |
Right now it's a stockpicker's market and the trade selection is slim but the profits are stunning. I will show you what I do (in real-time). |
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Every trade recommendation that I make using this system – comes straight from the list of trade recommendations I use myself. Not only that, but every trade I make is logged in detail for you to review at any time. As a Lifetime Subscriber, you can see my trading updates LIVE so that you can Do-As-I-Do and even copy my trading strategy. From January 1, 2020, to today, my total return on risk has been an astounding 510%. I've made 1545 trades since then, with 1311 of them have made money. ** There are even ways I alert you immediately when I'm making a trade, so you can watch me do it live. Let me explain Membership's huge inflation discount more to you by CLICKING HERE. |
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CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE |
As of Friday, the 5-day chart shows the $SPY was trading 0.65% higher, just over $411. The S&P 500 sold off slightly on Friday following the impressive July employment report. Oil sold off while gold traded higher to end the week. European markets closed in the red while Asian markets moved higher on Friday. The $DXY marginally rose on Friday, near the $106 level, whereas the $TLT sold off throughout the week and continued to do so on Friday, finishing near the $116 mark. I am under the impression the market is overbought, as several indicators allude to, and I believe the market is building a top that can make marginal highs but risks a large downside. I expect the top building to occur for one to four weeks but the sell-off will resume sooner rather than later.
As I've previously stated, I believe this is a short-term rally in a bear market. I am expecting the rally to come to an end as soon as this month and the bear market to resume downward momentum into the September-October time frame.
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I follow the market closely and one sector, in my opinion, is primed for a good run. I am also seeing several trends that support my view and will likely make a move as soon as the coming week. As the market continues to build a top, I see no indication that the bear market is behind us. This rally, supported by the Fed decision, strong earnings reports, presents an interesting scenario for traders going into the month of August. As I've previously stated, I always believed the bear market would resume following the latest rally. And as the dollar begins to recover, we now look toward this particular sector as a wise investment in what appears to be a turbulent upcoming market landscape. We are moving further from earnings season and the market is primed for volatility. With an uptick of uncertainty and a slowdown in economic reporting following the last few news-heavy weeks, I am seeing a sector that can withstand any potential market disruptors and extreme volatility. I am looking at treasuries and specifically one symbol in particular. |
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Market Volatility LIVE Trading Room Sessions Join Our Discord Community Every Monday and Wednesday at 8:15 am CST. Click Here To Join |
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NOTE: We encourage all subscribers to view the instructional videos on how to best use your membership and invite our members to participate in live weekly strategy roundtable workshops that are also archived for your convenience so that they can to be viewed at a later time. |
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To effectively trade in today's rapidly moving equity markets, active day traders and swing traders must stay ahead of market changes due to inflation, global uncertainty, politics, as well as innovations and technological changes used by hedge fund traders and proprietary trading firms. With traders like you in mind, we designed this intensive roundtable where you will deepen your understanding of all aspects of stock and options trading in today's changing market. |
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DISCLAIMER: Vlad and his team may have a financial interest in the picks as they trade many of the same equities and options they pick. Vlad Karpel and YellowTunnel (Company) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. All investing strategies are made available to the general public on a regular basis. We do not provide personalized financial advice or investment recommendations. As an investor, you know that any kind of investment opportunity has its risks. There is no such thing as low-risk stocks and we recommend you invest wisely and that only risk capital should be used to trade. Investing in Stocks and Options is highly speculative. No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed here and on our website. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE SUCCESS: It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators developed at YellowTunnel will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Nor should it be assumed that future picks will be profitable or will equal past performance. All of the content on our website and in our email alerts is for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. Remember, you should always consult with a licensed securities professional before purchasing or selling securities of companies profiled or discussed on YellowTunnel.com. Performance results that are discussed above are from the Live Trading Room, multiple YellowTunnel tools were used to achieve these results. Trade % Gain/Loss is calculated by dividing the $ Gain/Loss by the Max Risk which is the posted Stop Loss for the trade. Yellow Tunnel's performance data represents the average return on all trading recommendations from January 1, 2020, to today. *Win rate percentage reflects the average that Yellow Tunnel's software helped me identify a profitable investment strategy.** Triple-digit returns are not typical and are not intended to reflect the likelihood of similar returns in the future. |
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