Monday, August 29, 2022

The almighty vs. the alternative

Presented by Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids: The unofficial guide to official Washington.
Aug 29, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

Presented by

Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Joe Biden is pictured speaking at an event.

The return of Donald Trump helps Joe Biden because the former is even more unpopular than the latter. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

THE WEEK — Today: Artemis I, the first step in NASA's new moon mission, launches in the morning. VP KAMALA HARRIS speaks at the Kennedy Space Center. … Tuesday: DOJ faces deadline to provide "a more detailed" list of items seized during the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago. Biden talks gun safety in Wilkes-Barre, Penn. … Thursday: Hearing in West Palm Beach on DONALD TRUMP's request for a special master to oversee the review of the FBI's Mar-a-Lago search. … Friday: Absent new funding, the Biden administration stops distributing free at-home Covid tests. August jobs report is released.

LAUNCH DAY — "We're going back to the moon," NASA Administrator BILL NELSON said recently. Today's the day.

The Space Launch System Rocket, which will push the Orion spacecraft on a trajectory to orbit the moon, lifts off at 8:33 a.m. EST from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. NASA TV's stream of the enormous 30-story tall rocket is already live with a countdown clock.

If all goes well, in six days, the unmanned Orion capsule — which can accommodate four astronauts in future missions — will begin orbiting the moon from a distance of some 43,000 miles from the lunar surface. On the way there, Orion will release 10 shoebox-sized research satellites called CubeSats. After 42 days, on October 10, Orion will splashdown back on Earth, entering our atmosphere at 25,000 miles per hour before parachuting into the Pacific near southern California.

Instead of humans, Orion will carry three mannequins inside: Commander Moonikin Campos, Helga and Zohar. This test flight will be followed by Artemis II in 2024, when four astronauts will circle the moon inside Orion and return to Earth. Artemis III, in 2025 or 2026, will send Orion back into lunar orbit, but this time two of the four astronauts will undock from the space capsule in a lunar lander and spend a week on the Moon's surface. Eventually, NASA says , the goal is to "establish the first long-term presence on the moon." All of this will help NASA prepare for human missions to Mars within the next two decades.

THE POLITICS — It's a big day for Harris. There have occasionally been snickers about the fact that the VP chairs the administration's National Space Council. What exactly does she do in that role anyway? Well, today the potential upside of that curious assignment will take center stage.

There is of course some risk. NASA emphasizes that this is a test mission. The project has encountered numerous delays. There's always a chance things could go awry.

Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will watch the launch from Kennedy. Afterwards, they will tour some of the hardware to be used in the upcoming Artemis missions to the moon. At noon, once Orion is safely headed toward its lunar orbit, Harris will deliver remarks about the Artemis missions, which intend to land the first woman and the first person of color on the moon.

There is a very '60s vibe to the Biden administration's embrace and celebration of space exploration. One of Biden's better news days this year was in July when he unveiled the dazzling galactic photos taken by the James Webb Space Telescope. Harris will use today's event to put a bit of a foreign policy bent on America's return to the moon. Her remarks are being billed as a speech about U.S. leadership in space exploration.

 

A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids:

FDA's delays mean nicotine-loaded flavored e-cigarettes are headed back to school.

Ignoring deadlines set by courts and Congress, the FDA has allowed highly addictive flavored e-cigarettes to remain on store shelves — leaving kids at risk.

Learn what the FDA must do right now to stop Big Tobacco from luring kids into lifelong addiction.

 

THE ALMIGHTY VS. THE ALTERNATIVE, CONT'D — The burst of reporting reconsidering the conventional wisdom that Democrats will be crushed in the 2022 midterms continues this week. Most of the pieces emphasize that the return of Trump — through the Jan. 6 committee, the fringe candidates he's backing and the multiple investigations he faces — could help Democrats bury their differences with anti-Trump Republicans and independents and unite into a majority coalition similar to the one that fueled Dem victories in the Trump-centered elections of 2018 and 2020.

Trump helps Biden because the former is even more unpopular than the latter. As Cook Political Report's Amy Walter recently noted : "While neither Biden nor Trump are popular, Trump is the more polarizing. New polling from NBC News finds Trump's net favorable ratings (-18) to be twice as bad as Biden's (-8). That same dynamic is showing up in swing states like Arizona, where a recent FOX News poll finds Trump's net favorable at -20 to Biden's -10, and Wisconsin, where the FOX poll showed Biden's net favorable ratings at (-6) compared with Trump's (-10)."

"Don't compare me to the Almighty," Biden often says. "Compare me to the alternative."

Trump's return is allowing Biden to make that distinction a lot easier.

NYT: "Headed into 2022, Republicans were confident that a red wave would sweep them into control of Congress based on the conventional political wisdom that the midterm elections would produce a backlash against President Biden, who has struggled with low approval ratings.

"But now some are signaling concern that the referendum they anticipated on Mr. Biden — and the high inflation and gas prices that have bedeviled his administration — is being complicated by all-encompassing attention on the legal exposure of a different president: his predecessor, Donald J. Trump.

"Those worries were on display on Sunday morning as few Republicans appeared on the major Washington-focused news shows to defend Mr. Trump two days after a redacted version of the affidavit used to justify the F.B.I. search of his Mar-a-Lago estate revealed that he had retained highly classified material related to the use of 'clandestine human sources' in intelligence gathering. And those who did appear indicated that they would rather be talking about almost anything else."

 

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WaPo's Dan Balz: "Trump is turning the midterms from a referendum into a choice"

POLITICO: "Republicans poised for smaller gains in House, poll suggests"

CNN: "A once-bullish GOP now sees a smaller House majority in its future, presenting a challenge to McCarthy"

WSJ: "Republicans Still Favored to Win Back House Control but Outlook Tightens"

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT — "IAEA chief says mission to big Ukraine nuclear plant on way," by AP's Paul Byrne: "The United Nations nuclear watchdog on Monday injected a ray of hope in the standoff over the beleaguered Zaporizhzhia atomic power plant, announcing that its mission of top experts 'is now on its way' to the facility, which has seen relentless shelling as a focal point in the Ukraine war."

IF IT AIN'T BROKE — Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and his top three lieutenants in the caucus are all planning to run again for their posts next term, with no real challenges expected as Senate Dems feel satisfied with their leadership, Burgess Everett reports. The DSCC chairmanship remains a bit up in the air, though: Current Chair GARY PETERS (D-Mich.) could remain at the helm for another cycle, but there's also chatter about Sen. ALEX PADILLA (D-Calif.).

THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — "White House sees glimmers of economic hope after a dreadful year," by Ben White: "[F]or now, as one top Biden aide said, 'the trend is our friend' and the trend looks a lot better than it did a few months back, with the government reporting that the Fed's preferred measure of inflation decelerated in July."

BIDEN'S MONDAY — The president will leave New Castle, Del., at 9 a.m., returning to the White House at 9:55 a.m.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:30 p.m.

HARRIS' MONDAY:

— 6:40 a.m.: The VP and Emhoff will leave Orlando, Fla., for Kennedy Space Center.

— 8:30 a.m.: Harris and Emhoff will watch the Artemis I launch, followed by a tour of Artemis II and III hardware at 10:05 a.m.

— Noon: Harris will deliver remarks about the launch.

— 1 p.m.: Harris and Emhoff will leave Kennedy Space Center to return to D.C.

THE SENATE and THE HOUSE are out.

BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD — The president will head to Wilkes-Barre, Pa., on Tuesday to talk about safety and reducing gun crime.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

NASA's Space Launch System rocket with the Orion spacecraft aboard is seen atop a mobile launcher at Launch Pad 39B.

NASA's Space Launch System rocket with the Orion spacecraft aboard is seen atop a mobile launcher as preparations for launch continue at the Kennedy Space Center on Sunday, Aug. 28. | Joel Kowsky/NASA via Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT

THE TRUMP TEAM — NYT's Maggie Haberman and Glenn Thrush take a look at the Trump team's many legal approaches, sometimes puzzling and often unsuccessful, in the records fight thus far. Much of the big picture Playbook readers will find familiar — like the moves that are seen "as more about setting a political narrative than about dealing with the possibility of a federal prosecution" — but a few tidbits stood out to us:

  • EVAN CORCORAN's moves have "raised eyebrows within the Justice Department," where "officials are uncertain whether Mr. Corcoran was intentionally evasive, or simply unaware."
  • They also have insight into the DOJ reaction to the note Trump tried to get to AG MERRICK GARLAND saying, "The country is on fire. What can I do to reduce the heat?" It's not clear if Garland received it, "but the senior leadership was befuddled by the message, and had no idea what Mr. Trump was trying to accomplish."
  • "During the Aug. 8 search, the F.B.I. found additional documents in [the room where documents were stored] and also on the floor of a closet in Mr. Trump's office."

MASTER OF HIS FATE — If District Judge AILEEN CANNON goes ahead with appointing a special master in the matter, the move might introduce "new complications and unresolved legal questions," report WaPo's David Nakamura and Amy Wang . We don't yet know who would fulfill the role's specifications, how it would work, or what happens if that person disagrees with DOJ's "filter team." Then there's this: "Legal experts said the very provisions Cannon asked of the Justice Department ahead of the hearing could render the need for a special master moot by the time the parties appear before the judge."

HOT ON THE RIGHT — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said Sunday night on Fox News that if Trump is prosecuted in this investigation, "there'll be riots in the streets," an interview that Trump soon shared on Truth Social. More from The Hill

THE WHITE HOUSE

COMING ATTRACTIONS — Biden is planning to visit Pittsburgh next week for the city's Labor Day parade, CBS' Ed O'Keefe reports.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS — The White House just announced that it will host the major Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health on Sept. 28, the first of its kind in more than half a century. The long-anticipated confab will include a new national strategy for tackling these issues, as stakeholders convene to "achieve the goal of ending hunger and reducing diet-related diseases in the U.S. by 2030." It was first announced this spring, but the administration didn't specify the date until now.

CONGRESS

RONJOHN IN THE SPOTLIGHT — Senate Dems may force Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) into a vote on codifying the rights to same-sex and interracial marriage just before the midterms, putting him in a tough spot politically, Marianne LeVine and Holly Otterbein report. Johnson isn't exactly pivoting in his tight reelection fight against Lt. Gov. MANDELA BARNES, but voting against the bill — which he's seeking to amend — could play poorly in Wisconsin.

ALL POLITICS

WHAT IF? — What exactly could happen if one of the election deniers wins a secretary of state post in November? Zach Montellaro explores the possibilities this morning, writing that it's not just the potential of refusing to certify election results: They also could make major changes to election laws or the administration of voting procedures; restrict mail ballots; chart a new course in court battles; overhaul staff; or even force everybody to re-register to vote.

THE NEXT BIG SENATE GOP PRIMARY — NYT's Trip Gabriel dives into the New Hampshire Senate campaign of DON BOLDUC, who could be the next — and final — hard-right contender to win a GOP nomination in a key swing state. The party establishment warns that he could lose in the general to Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN, but Bolduc got a long head start in campaigning and has tapped into the base. The retired general wants to repeal the 17th Amendment (direct election of senators) and called popular Republican Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU "a Chinese Communist sympathizer." But he hasn't yet landed a key puzzle piece: Trump's endorsement.

HOW THE IRA IS PLAYING — Drought and heat struggles make the Inflation Reduction Act's massive climate investments particularly important for Nevada, but the law may not help Democratic Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO much in her reelection bid, WaPo's Maxine Joselow finds in Las Vegas. Instead, working-class voters tell her they're more focused on inflation and staying afloat financially. "Few of them brought up climate change or were aware the Inflation Reduction Act provided drought relief" — even as they worry about the drought.

DOUBLING DOWN — Far-right Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial nominee DOUG MASTRIANO is not trying to pivot to the center for the general election — instead holding firm to election denialism and Christian nationalism, reports WaPo's Isaac Arnsdorf from Rochester, Pa. He's betting that banking on the base in a good year for Republicans will be enough in the swing state — even as his approach worries some in the GOP.

NOT ON THE SCHEDULE — BETO O'ROURKE said he has a bacterial infection and will be taking a break from the Texas gubernatorial campaign trail. After going to the hospital Friday, O'Rourke is now recuperating at home and said his symptoms are improving. More from The Texas Tribune

— An "unforeseen tragedy" caused Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS to pull out of a Long Island fundraiser for Rep. LEE ZELDIN scheduled for Sunday, a Zeldin spokesperson told the N.Y. Post.

 

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JUDICIARY SQUARE

KNOWING SAMUEL ALITO — The New Yorker's Margaret Talbot has a major new profile of the justice, whom she depicts as newly emboldened, ambitious and resentful in the court's conservative majority: "Alito may be angry for the same reasons that many conservatives of his demographic are angry — because they find their values increasingly contested; because they feel less culturally authoritative than they once were; because they want to exclude whom they want to exclude, and resent it when others push back." Former Alito allies like CHARLES FRIED and LAWRENCE LUSTBERG go on the record to criticize his pugnacity.

This Alito quote about the court stands out, as recounted by an old friend who visited him recently: "It's like having tenure, Alice. You're stuck for the rest of your career with people you can't stand."

ABORTION FALLOUT

POLITICAL IMPACT — In North Carolina, Democrats are hoping outrage over the end of Roe v. Wade can finally help put them over the top in a swing state they keep losing, AP's Hannah Schoenbaum reports from Raleigh. "About 30,000 North Carolina residents have registered to vote since the Supreme Court abortion ruling, with women slightly outnumbering men, according to state Board of Elections data." Republicans aren't worried — or backing down from their calls for more stringent abortion restrictions.

MEDIAWATCH

HOLLYWOODLAND — Vanity Fair's Joe Pompeo has the download, two months in, on WaPo's plans to go Hollywood via a deal with Imagine Entertainment and Creative Artists Agency: Four projects are already in development to turn the paper's journalism into TV, movies and more. Plenty of outlets are getting into the Hollywood IP game, but "a mash-up between one of America's top news outlets and one of its top production companies — with one of Hollywood's Big Three talent agencies in the mix as their broker — appears to be a sui generis proposition." Imagine's JUSTIN WILKES has a weekly meeting with WaPo editors to talk about stories, including investigations that are months away from publication.

Among the stories that are in development: KEVIN SIEFF's June feature on Mexican cops who hunt American fugitives is in the works as a scripted TV show.

HOW IT'S DONE — "'Do You Still Identify as Pro-Life?' CNN's Pamela Brown Grills Charlie Crist On His Past Abortion Positions"

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Donald Trump has reportedly complained recently about Ron DeSantis' speaking style, saying that the Florida governor is "stealing" from him.

Harry Enten noted that "[f]or the first time in Gallup polling, more Americans (16%) said they smoke marijuana than had smoked a tobacco cigarette (11%) in the past week."

Larry Hogan criticized Joe Biden's description of MAGA Republicans as embracing "semi-faciscm" as "divisive."

STAFFING UP — Whitney Groves is now policy adviser on gender equality, gender based violence and girls' priorities in the Office of Global Women's Issues at the State Department. She previously was policy adviser for gender equality and education at World Vision.

TRANSITIONS — Ashley All is joining Families United for Freedom, a new pro-abortion rights 501(c)(4), to support abortion-related ballot initiatives nationwide. New York doctor Rachael Bedard heads the group. All is spokesperson and comms director for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, which helped win the recent abortion vote in the state.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Kerry Rom, director at Targeted Victory, and Richard Sant, comms manager at Lockheed Martin, got married Saturday in Harbor Springs, Mich. They met while working at the RNC in 2016. Pic SPOTTED: Bettina Inclán-Agen and Jarrod Agen, Matt Gorman, Jack and Holli Pandol, Maddie Anderson and Morgan Wilson, Erin and Ben Voelkel, Deanna Clayton and Chris Martin, Riley and Jeff Bechdel, Tatum Wallace and RJ Gibson, Elliott Schwartz, Rebecca and Quentin Cantu, Brittany and Jim Oleff, Hunter Mullins, Christian Hulen, Katie Wall, Macaulay Porter and Brendan Shanahan, and Tyler Ross.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Josh Brown, CEO of Brown Strategy, and Alexa Brown, an advisory manager in the cyber and strategic risk practice at Deloitte, welcomed Leo Isaac Brown on Sunday morning. Pic Another pic

— Hilary Pinegar, legislative director to Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), and Phillip Pinegar, deputy chief of staff to Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.), welcomed Phillip James ("P.J.") on Saturday. Pic

— Carly Rubel, booking producer for MSNBC/Peacock's "The Mehdi Hasan Show," and Michael Feller, a physical therapist, on Friday welcomed Ethan Julian Feller, who came in at 7 lbs, 8 oz and 20 inches. Pic Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Neil Gorsuch … WSJ's Paul BeckettClayton Cox of McGuireWoods Consulting … Garrett Arwa of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee … Alison Schwartz of Grow Strategic Solutions … Nancy Scola … Texas Tribune's Sewell Chan … Finsbury Glover Hering's Kyle DalyAmy NathanCharlie SpiesStacey Hughes of the American Hospital Association … IBM's Ryan HagemannEd Wyatt of Precision Strategies … PhRMA's Tom WilburJerr Rosenbaum of HLP&R Advocacy … FTI Consulting's Brian KennedyDuncan NeashamMaurice Simpson Jr. … Nestle's Molly FogartyPaul CoussanSusan MarkhamPaige Ennis … former Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Jack Lew … POLITICO's Mandeep Kaur, Morgan Connolly, Noura Arzaz and Maddie Bedrick Rich Cooper … former Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.) … National Nurses United's Amirah SequeiraSacha Zimmerman Fannie Mae's Anna English … former Sen. David Pryor (D-Ark.) … Adam Shapiro … former Guam Gov. Eddie Baza CalvoWesley Dietrich Uliana PavlovaConnie Milstein David LeviSacha Zimmerman … USA Today's Cristina Silva

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A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids:

FDA delays leave flavored e-cigarettes on the market — putting kids at risk.

Big Tobacco continues to lure kids with flavored e-cigarettes, hooking them with massive doses of nicotine. These addictive products can impact kids' brain development, learning, and ability to focus in school.

The courts and Congress have ordered the FDA to act, but repeated delays mean flavored e-cigarettes are still widely available. To protect kids, the FDA must eliminate all flavored e-cigarettes now.

Learn more about what the FDA must do to prevent youth addiction.

 
 

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