| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Tuesday. Something different — A new public poll just released by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida contends that the Aug. 23 Democratic primary between Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and Rep. Charlie Crist has shifted and Fried now holds a slight lead with a week left to go. Breaking the trend — Yes, this poll does not reflect the same findings as other polls that have been taken in this race. And the Crist campaign – which got wind of the UNF findings a few hours before they were publicly released – released its own internal poll that said showed Crist with a comfortable 10 point lead. Findings — But the UNF poll – which was taken of likely primary voters and conducted online – found that 47 percent said they would vote for Fried while 43 percent said they were backing Crist. That places Fried outside the poll's margin of error of plus/minus 3.4 percent. Assessment — "Fried seems to have reversed the eight-point lead that Crist had when we asked registered Democrats about vote choice in February," said Michael Binder, director of the opinion lab and a UNF professor of political science. "It's possible that the overturning of Roe v. Wade changed the make-up of this race, and has particularly energized women that are almost 20 points more likely to vote for her." Rebuttal — The Crist campaign late Monday night released its own internal poll from Change Research that had the race with 47 percent for Crist and 37 percent for Fried – a starkly different finding. That poll – which had a margin of error rate of plus/minus 4.2 percent – maintained Crist was dominating with voters who had already cast ballots as well as older voters, Black voters and those in key areas such as Orlando and Tampa. Response — "The UNF poll is clearly an outlier. Between public polls and our own internal polls, Nikki Fried at this stage of the race has no path to victory barring a black swan event," asserted Samantha Ramirez, a spokeswoman for the Crist campaign. — WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is holding a press conference in New Port Richey with Education Commissioner Manny Diaz. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | |
DESANTIS STILL LEADS — While the Fried-Crist numbers are the biggest takeaway from the UNF poll, there were a few other numbers worth noting, including that incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis was ahead in head-to-head matchups with either Democratic challenger.
By the numbers — Pollsters found that DeSantis had a 50 percent to 43 percent lead over Fried and a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over Crist. This is notable especially since the entire poll was nearly evenly broken by party affiliation, with 36 percent Republicans answering as opposed to 35 percent who were Democrats. Translation: If you expect a red wave Republican year, then DeSantis' lead is likely even larger. Other findings of note …. DeSantis' approval rating dropped from a previous rating of 58 percent to 50 percent…. President Joe Biden's approval rating remains seriously underwater in Florida. Only 38 percent approve of the job he is doing. Both Sen. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott also have low job approval ratings of just 37 percent. … Rep. Val Demings is leading Rubio 48 percent to 44 percent…. … Republican voters in Florida are nearly evenly split between DeSantis and former President Donald Trump in a 2024 matchup. Pollsters found that 47 percent said they would vote for DeSantis while 45 percent would back Trump. That's within the poll's margin of error. … Pollsters also asked about the impact of the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Seventy-one percent of those asked would be opposed or strongly opposed to a law that would make abortion illegal in all cases in Florida. The survey also found that 51 percent said they were more likely to vote in November because of the Supreme Court ruling while 46 percent said it would not affect their decision to vote. WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET? — DeSantis gets $150K one-day haul from State Farm agents, by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: Gov. Ron DeSantis got a huge wave of campaign cash last week from insurance agencies and entities aligned with State Farm, hundreds of contributions that come as insurance remains one of Florida's seemingly unsolvable policy quagmires. On Aug. 1 alone, DeSantis' political committee, Friends of Ron DeSantis, brought in nearly 2,000 separate checks from insurance agents or their firms, a huge single day amount from any one industry. The total haul was nearly $155,000, a sizable chunk of the nearly $700,000 DeSantis has received from the industry throughout the 2022 midterms. FINGER POINTING — "'You want to go to Congress and do what, steal?' Accusations fly in Cherfilus-McCormick, Holness rematch," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Anthony Man: "[Sheila] Cherfilus-McCormick and [Dale] Holness have been trading accusations in joint appearances, in advertising — and in a court case. 'My opponent is putting lies out,' Cherfilus-McCormick said during a joint candidate interview last month with the South Florida Sun Sentinel Editorial Board. 'What is clear is that, Sheila, she lies,' Holness said during an Aug. 7 debate on the WPLG-Ch. 10 'This Week in South Florida' program. 'You want to go to Congress and do what, steal?' she said. 'In terms of my office being raided [by the FBI] and I'm a criminal, where are you getting that stuff from? You're making it up,' Holness said." WHAT RICK SCOTT IS READING — GOP slashes ads in key Senate battlegrounds, by POLITICO's Natalie Allison: As midterm election campaigns heat up in the Senate's top battlegrounds, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is canceling millions of dollars of ad spending, sending GOP campaigns and operatives into a panic and upending the committee's initial spending plan. The cuts — totaling roughly $13.5 million since Aug. 1 — come as the Republicans' Senate campaign committee is being forced to "stretch every dollar we can," said a person familiar with the NRSC's deliberations. Republican nominees in critical states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — places the GOP must defend this fall — have failed to raise enough money to get on air themselves, requiring the NRSC to make cuts elsewhere to accommodate. | 
Sen. Rick Scott speaks to reporters after a Republican strategy meeting at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 15, 2022. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo |
HELPING OUT — DeSantis school board candidates get cash boost ahead of primary, by POLITICO's Andrew Atterbury: Gov. Ron DeSantis used his massive fundraising advantage to rain donations on the full slate of local school board candidates he endorsed ahead of next week's primary elections. In total, the Republican governor's central political committee, Friends of Ron DeSantis, donated $29,000 to school board candidates in late July — cutting $1,000 checks to each of the 29 candidates he's backing, campaign finance records show.
TUSSLE — " Michael Flynn tried to overturn an election. Now he's trying to oust Sarasota's GOP leader," by Sarasota Herald-Tribune: " Gen. Michael Flynn led efforts to overturn President Joe Biden's victory. Now he's targeting a much lower profile elected official as he tries to overthrow the GOP leader in his home county, adding to the conservative push during the Trump years to move the party to the right…Flynn recently applied to join the executive committee of the Republican Party in Sarasota County, where he lives, and is trying to oust its current leader Jack Brill, saying the GOP needs to be reformed." CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried will kick off her 'Something New' bus tour in Panama City on Tuesday and on Tuesday evening will give what she's calling her "closing argument" speech in Tallahassee… … On Monday Fried released what her campaign called her "final TV ad" even though it won't actual air until the day before the Aug. 23 primary. The one-minute ad is a version of a previous digital ad that aired in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade that features Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down."… …. The Florida Police Chiefs Association endorsed Attorney General Ashley Moody for reelection … … Twenty Black state legislators on Monday endorsed Aramis Ayala, the former central Florida prosecutor who is one of the Democrats running in the Aug. 23 primary for attorney general. The list includes incoming House Democratic leader Rep. Fentrice Driskell … … The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday launched a new digital ad targeting Sen. Marco Rubio and other senators who voted to keep a price cap on insulin out of the recently passed climate and tax package. … … The Democratic National Committee on Monday launched a digital ad campaign targeting Florida seniors on YouTube that contends the "Republican agenda" includes cutting Social Security and Medicare. The digital ad displays a picture of Sen. Rick Scott in it. Back in May the DNC launched ads criticizing Scott's suggestion to reauthorize federal legislation every five years … — "Florida's Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls stake out positions on education and culture wars," by Action News Jax's Jake Stofan — "Florida GOP congressman and former Green Beret kicks off six-figure ad buy highlighting Afghanistan fall," by Fox News' Houston Keene — " Marjorie Taylor Greene to campaign for Anthony Sabatini, Anna Paulina Luna," by Florida Politics' Jacob Ogles
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NEXT ROUND — DOJ says release of Mar-a-Lago affidavit would harm ongoing criminal probe, by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: The Justice Department intends to unseal additional documents connected to the FBI search at President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate but is urging a federal court to maintain the secrecy of the sworn affidavit describing the basis for the search. The DOJ is particularly concerned that the release of details from the affidavit might harm ongoing efforts to interview witnesses, given the threats to federal agents in wake of the Mar-a-Lago search.
'Roadmap' — "If disclosed, the affidavit would serve as a roadmap to the government's ongoing investigation, providing specific details about its direction and likely course, in a manner that is highly likely to compromise future investigative steps," U.S. Attorney Juan Gonzalez and Justice Department counterintelligence chief Jay Bratt said in a filing urging the continued secrecy of the affidavit. — " Ron DeSantis walks a tightrope over the Mar-A-Lago search," by New York Times' Blake Hounshell | 
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - JULY 24: Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the Rally To Protect Our Elections conference on July 24, 2021 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Phoenix-based political organization Turning Point Action hosted former President Donald Trump alongside GOP Arizona candidates who have begun candidacy for government elected roles. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images) | Brandon Bell/Getty Images | QUESTION — Could Trump declassify at whim and does it get him off the hook? by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney: Former President Donald Trump claims to have verbally declassified the sensitive records the FBI seized from his Mar-a-Lago compound. It's not as unprecedented or outlandish an argument as widely believed — if he can prove it happened. — Trump world's shifting narrative on the Mar-a-Lago docs , by POLITICO's Myah Ward — "Naples Jan. 6 suspect accused of violating the conditions of his release," by WINK's Gail Levy and Matthew Seaver | | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | |
TRANSITIONS — Ballard Partners announced Tuesday it has formed a strategic partnership with veteran school lobbyist Thomas Cerra . Cerra, a well-known presence in the halls of the state Capitol, is a former deputy superintendent for Miami-Dade schools who spent many years as Miami-Dade's chief lobbyist. "Creating this strategic partnership with a nationally respected educator and consultant like Tom gives our clients direct access to his decades of experience in K-12 education," said Brian Ballard , president and founder of Ballard Partners in a statement. "Partnering with Ballard Partners is a great opportunity to mutually enhance our respective relationships and deliver exceptional services to our respective clients," said Cerra in a statement.
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | |
IF YOU HAD WINGS — "Why is airline travel so miserable? Blame Florida," by Wall Street Journal's Micah Maidenberg and Alison Sider: "Over the Gulf of Mexico, military exercises restricted airspace for flights trying to go east and west. A thunderstorm encroached, threatening an important route over the Gulf. Short staffing at an air-traffic-control center near Jacksonville limited north-south traffic. And a space rocket prepared to launch over the Atlantic, temporarily cutting off routes to the east. Such is the Florida obstacle course, jamming up airspace over some of the most popular vacation spots in the U.S.—and cascading travel problems across the rest of the country."
AFTERMATH — "'Don't Say Gay' law confuses some Florida schools," by Associated Press' Anthony Izaguirre and Adriana Gomez Licon: "Some Florida schools have moved library books and debated changing textbooks in response to a law critics call "Don't Say Gay" — and some teachers have worried that family pictures on their desks could get them in trouble. As students return from summer break, educators are cautiously adjusting and waiting to see how the new law governing lessons on gender and sexual orientation will be interpreted and enforced." — " Equality Florida slams Duval Schools for removing 'Safe Space' rainbow stickers amid 'rebrand,' by Florida Times-Union's Emily Bloch UPHELD — " Judge backs firing of Broward teacher who refused to wear mask amid COVID-19 surge," by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders: "An administrative law judge Monday backed a decision by the Broward County School Board to fire a science teacher who refused last year to comply with a mask requirement aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19. Judge Cathy Sellers issued a 44-page ruling that concluded Piper High School teacher John Alvarez 'engaged in gross insubordination by continued, intentional failure to obey numerous direct orders, reasonable in nature and given by and with proper authority.' The dispute was rooted in an emergency policy that the school board approved at the beginning of the 2020-2021 school year to require students, employees and other people to wear masks on school campuses." — "Chief communications officer for Hillsborough County state attorney terminated from her job," by WFLA's Justin Schecker — " Appeals court blocks abortion under Florida consent law," by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders — "Florida utility's new drone can speed hurricane recovery ," by Associated Press's Cody Jackson — "ACLU of Florida sues Leon County Clerk for violating Eighth Amendment," by Florida Politics' Aimee Sachs — "Peak of hurricane season: How 2022 stacks up to the last 20 years so far," by Orlando Sentinel's Joe Mario Pedersen — " Florida high speed train gets grant to improve safety," by Associated Press' Freida Frisaro | | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | |
— "Florida gator hunting starts with expanded time, weapons," by Associated Press: "Florida's alligator hunting season started Monday with new rules expanding the time and weapons that can be used. The new rules expanded alligator hunting to 24 hours a day, instead of the previous 17 hours a day, primarily at night and early morning, that had been allowed. Additionally, hunters now will be allowed to use pneumatic air-bows attached to a restraining line to hunt the alligators. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission says the pneumatic air-bows are easier to use for people with mobility challenges and young people."
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