| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Liz Cheney's best hope appears to be a surge of non-Republicans voting across party lines. For months, Cheney allies have been courting Democrats and independents to help push her over the finish line. | J. Scott Applewhite, File/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Programming note: President JOE BIDEN is scheduled to return to the White House today to sign the Inflation Reduction Act at 3:30 this afternoon. TO THE BITTER END — When it comes to dealing with DONALD TRUMP, plenty of Republicans have chosen sycophancy — backing him no matter what. Others pick their spots, delivering an occasional critique alongside heapings of praise. Others just keep their heads down and hope for the best. And then there's LIZ CHENEY. A three-term congresswoman from the least populous state in the union, Cheney walked into Congress the same month that Trump walked into the Oval Office. During his presidency, she voted with Trump more than 90% of the time. Now she's the Republican face of the anti-Trump movement, a position she has cemented as the vice chair of the Jan. 6 select committee, and it will likely cost Cheney her political career — at least for now. Trump made it his mission to oust her from Congress and Republican politics after she voted to impeach him and, more importantly, refused to stop talking about the danger she believes he poses to the GOP and American democracy. Today, Wyoming Republicans will choose whether to nominate Cheney or another Republican — most likely Trump-endorsed HARRIET HAGEMAN , who previously endorsed Cheney and called the former president "racist and xenophobic" but has more recently hugged Trump and Trumpism tight. Related read: "The Trump Convert Who Looks Like She's About To Unseat Liz Cheney," by Vanity Fair's Eric Lutz Almost no one expects Cheney to win. As our Zach Montellaro reports in his curtain-raiser this morning, "while Cheney has significantly outraised Hageman, the challenger has held wide leads in every poll that has been publicly released." The latest poll from the Casper Star-Tribune has Hageman leading Cheney by more than 20 points. Cheney's best hope appears to be a surge of non-Republicans voting across party lines. For months, Cheney allies have been courting Democrats and independents to help push her over the finish line. But in a state where just over 117,000 voted in the 2018 GOP primary, she's likely to need tens of thousands of crossover votes to have any chance at victory. In a look at what her future beyond the end of this Congress, WaPo's Paul Kane outlines what's on the table for Cheney, from "launching a political organization that focuses on Trump, or some think-tank work matched with media appearances," to running as a "political kamikaze" in the 2024 Republican primary. He writes: "Cheney is clear-eyed when it comes to her chances of actually winning the presidential nomination in a party that is still so loyal to former president Donald Trump, according to friends and advisers. She sees her future role similar to how she views the work of the Jan. 6 committee: Blocking any path for Trump back to the Oval Office." More from Wyoming: "In Wyoming, Likely End of Cheney Dynasty Will Close a Political Era," by NYT's Jonathan Martin
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Learn more about our work ahead. | | | MEANWHILE ON THE LAST FRONTIER — Another Republican Trump critic, Alaska Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI, is expected to fare much better under a new balloting system that begins Tuesday with an all-comers blanket primary. The top four finishers will advance to the general election, which will be conducted using a ranked-choice system. As Zach writes: "Murkowski and her Trump-endorsed challenger KELLY TSHIBAKA are expected to be among the four candidates who advance — and the new system is expected to benefit Murkowski in the fall, when she has previously won support from across the state's political spectrum in other general elections." The bigger drama in Alaska today concerns the race to finish out the late GOP Rep. DON YOUNG's House term, with SARAH PALIN working to make a comeback after more than a decade away from electoral politics. Voters will also send four candidates out of 22 to the ranked-choice November general-election ballot for the right to hold the seat in the next Congress. The race is dividing Alaskans, who remember that Palin pioneered the brand of conserative populism that Trump later perfected — but also that she has a mixed record of public service to the state. NYT's Jazmine Ulloa examines the split: "Several voters said Ms. Palin had abandoned Alaska, after she resigned from the governor's office in 2009 amid ethics complaints and legal bills. But Ms. Palin's support remains strong among other Republicans, including conservative women who have followed her political rise and have seen themselves in her struggles as a working mother. … Some Alaskans see her status as a far-right celebrity as an asset, as did a few callers into 'The Mike Porcaro Show,' a conservative talk radio program. They argued that Ms. Palin would be able to bring attention to Alaska in a way that a lesser-known newcomer to Congress would not." Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. TOP TALKER — The NRSC is pulling back more than $10 million in ad reservations in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, "a likely sign of financial troubles," NYT's Shane Goldmacher reports . "The states where ad reservations have been canceled are home to three of the nation's most competitive Senate contests." But, but, but: The NRSC's CHRIS HARTLINE pushed back hard on the story : "Nothing has changed about our commitment to winning in all of our target states," he said, claiming that the money was being shifted from group's independent expenditure unit, which faces fewer spending restrictions, to campaign-coordinated and "hybrid" ads that enjoy more favorable rates from broadcasters. Goldmacher's story notes that "some of the money saved by canceling reservations now would eventually be used to rebook advertising time in coordination with the Senate campaigns." Some more deets from Natalie Allison: — The timing and lack of a clear rationale for the move has some GOP strategists scratching their heads, with one telling her, "People are asking, 'What the hell is going on? … Why are we cutting in August? I've never seen it like this before." — The cuts total $13.5 million since the start of August including "the battleground states of Pennsylvania ($7.5 million), Arizona ($3.5 million), Wisconsin ($2.5 million) and Nevada ($1.5 million), according to the ad tracking service AdImpact." — Important caveat from Natalie: "While the scale of these cuts is unprecedented, the NRSC is also ahead of its typical schedule on its ad spending, having already spent $36.5 million on television spots this cycle, as opposed to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's $1.9 million to date." And the Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP super PAC, which plans to outspend the NRSC by tens of millions, is well ahead of its Democratic counterpart.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | | | BIDEN'S TUESDAY:
— 11:40 a.m.: The Bidens will head out from South Carolina, returning to the White House at 1:50 p.m.
— 3:30 p.m.: Biden will sign the Inflation Reduction Act into law and deliver remarks.
— 7 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House, arriving in New Castle, Del., at 8:15 p.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' TUESDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.
THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out. | | | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Speaker Nancy Pelosi helps cut a birthday cake during an event to mark the 87th anniversary of Social Security on Monday, August 15, in San Francisco. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT NOT BREAKING THE SEAL — A new DOJ filing Monday argued against making public the affidavit that laid the groundwork for the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, with officials saying disclosure could "harm ongoing efforts to interview witnesses, given the threats to federal agents," and damage the criminal investigation underway, reports Kyle Cheney. But the filing said the department does want a court to unseal other related documents, "including a cover sheet, DOJ's motion to seal the warrant on Aug. 5 and the judge's sealing order issued the same day." The filing HOW IT HAPPENED — A.G. MERRICK GARLAND debated whether to sign off on the search for weeks, WSJ's Sadie Gurman and Aruna Viswanatha report . The lengthy deliberations among top DOJ and FBI officials reflect Garland's caution around politically sensitive investigations, though the WSJ says his style is starting to change: "People close to him say he has started to delegate and make decisions faster, after his first few months in which he would review in detail even routine matters including requests for assistance from foreign law-enforcement agencies that were formally sent in his name." REALITY CHECK — Trump's claim that he'd declared the documents at Mar-a-Lago declassified was pooh-poohed in some corners. But Josh Gerstein and Kyle dug into the relevant legal standards and concluded : "It's not as unprecedented or outlandish an argument as widely believed — if he can prove it happened." Going back to the SCOOTER LIBBY case, Josh and Kyle find that there can be some wiggle room for presidents declassifying information outside the typical channels. "The ambiguity … has prompted some observers to suspect that any charges that emerge from the FBI raid may end up being more akin to theft than a breach of national security." WHAT WAS TAKEN — Trump claimed on Truth Social on Monday that the FBI had taken three of his passports, one of them expired, during the search. More from Insider — That could scramble the former president's plans to vacation in Scotland, where he'd been planning to visit his golf resorts potentially as soon as this weekend, Meridith McGraw reports. — But DOJ has already offered Trump his passports back. THE GOP RESPONSE — House Judiciary Republicans sent letters Monday asking Garland, White House chief of staff RON KLAIN and FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY to turn up and preserve documents related to the search. The members, led by Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) indicated, without evidence, that they thought the search was politically motivated. More from The Hill … The letters POLITICAL VIOLENCE WATCH — Federal authorities charged a Pennsylvania man with threatening to murder FBI agents in the wake of the search last week. "My only goal is to kill more of them before I drop," ADAM BIES allegedly wrote on Gab. "I will not spend one second of my life in their custody." He is now in custody. More from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette "FBI search of Mar-a-Lago raises critical national security questions: Sources," ABC "'Defund the FBI' complicates GOP's midterm messaging," Axios "The number of people with Top Secret clearance will shock you," CNN CONGRESS CAPITOL CHAOS — "What we know about the Delaware man who crashed near U.S. Capitol, fired gunshots," by the Delaware News Journal's Isabel Hughes and Shannon Marvel McNaught: "U.S Capitol Police identified RICHARD YORK III Sunday afternoon, saying that he is from Delaware." York's mother, TAMARA CUNNINGHAM "called her son 'a good person,' adding that while he had 'a very troubled past,' he was 'loved very, very much.' She also said he suffered from chronic traumatic encephalopathy, commonly known as a CTE or traumatic brain injury, from high school football. 'He was off because he was suffering,' Cunningham said." INSIDE THE IRA — Democrats' reconciliation bill will pump $20 billion into efforts to get farmers and ranchers to adopt more environmentally friendly practices, WSJ's Kristina Peterson reports. Republicans criticized Dems for pushing the policies here instead of through the farm bill, but supporters of the bill argued that it will help meet excess demand for the programs and reduce dangerous emissions. — Brian Faler cuts through the political noise about the bill's massive infusion of money for the IRS to examine what the agency will actually do with the funding. Many details are yet unknown, "but experts say it should be a money maker for the government because examiners bring in a lot more tax revenue than it costs to employ them." "Lawmakers to Investigate Sexual Abuse in Junior R.O.T.C. Programs," NYT ALL POLITICS DEMOCRATS' BIG QUESTION — For the second midterm cycle in a row, Democrats are grappling with how much to make Trump a focal point of their campaigns — a question taking on new dimensions in the wake of the FBI Mar-a-Lago search, WaPo's Marianna Sotomayor reports. Last week, the balance DCCC aides settled on amounted to: "Don't make this election about Trump, but use his latest legal turmoil to draw a sharp contrast with Trumpism." They want to tout Dems' recent legislative successes and paint Trumpist opponents as extremist without turning the elections into a Trump referendum — though it will vary by district. AD WARS — Citizens for Sanity, a conservative "dark money" nonprofit, is launching a six-figure TV ad campaign targeting transgender athletes in women's sports, Alex Isenstadt reports this morning, as part of a multimillion-dollar midterms effort bashing "woke" liberals. JOHN BRABENDER made the new ad; IAN PRIOR is also working with the group. It's also gone up with billboard ads like "Protect Pregnant Men from Climate Discrimination." The emphasis so far has been "on Hispanic-heavy congressional districts in Texas, New Mexico, Colorado and Arizona." Watch the ad ENDORSEMENT WATCH — First the NYT editorial board, now Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER: Rep. JERRY NADLER (D-N.Y.) is racking up some big endorsements in his tough primary against Rep. CAROLYN MALONEY and SURAJ PATEL. Schumer backed Nadler on Monday, "the first member of the state's congressional delegation to take a side," per the NYT , which notes that the two men. "served together in the New York State Assembly as young men in their 20s, then represented New York City districts in the House together before Mr. Schumer, a Brooklynite, ran for Senate in 1998 — a crowded race in which he notably won Mr. Nadler's support." CASH DASH — Trump is hosting a Bedminster fundraiser Sept. 1 for Texas A.G. KEN PAXTON, the Washington Examiner's Tori Richards scooped. Tickets range from $1,000 to $50,000; the night "will feature a dinner reception with Trump, an after-party at a private home, and a golf opportunity with Trump for higher-level donors." POLL OF THE DAY — One of the last big question marks on the Senate battleground primary map is which Republican will take on Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN in New Hampshire. A new poll finds retired Gen. DON BOLDUC out in front with 32%, trailed by state Senate President CHUCK MORSE at 16% and others in the low single digits, per WMUR. DISINFORMATION DIGEST — At a major hacking conference this weekend, tech whizzes tried to detect voting machine vulnerabilities like they have for years. But this time there was a 2022 twist: "[I]n the wake of a 2020 U.S. presidential election where false claims of election fraud abounded … the Voting Village got a lot more political — and the organizers worked to control the information coming out of it," reports Maggie Miller . Trying to help secure elections without providing grist for election deniers was a difficult tightrope to walk — and now fighting conspiracy theories took center stage alongside fighting software loopholes. "Greg Abbott using New York Mayor Eric Adams as foil to rally Texas conservatives," The Dallas Morning News ABORTION FALLOUT "All three Louisiana abortion clinics are leaving the state, staff say," WWNO "Clergy, social workers fear fallout from Okla. abortion laws," AP "Abortion bans limit training options for some future U.S. physicians," Reuters "Abortion bans restrict medications women need for chronic conditions," CBS
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | WAR IN UKRAINE HORROR SHOW — "Six Weeks of 'Hell': Inside Russia's Brutal Ukraine Detentions," by NYT's Carlotta Gall in Kharkiv: "Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have suffered beatings and sometimes electrical shocks, while the U.N. says hundreds have disappeared into Russian jails." JUST POSTED — "Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion," WaPo TRUMP CARDS THE INVESTIGATIONS — ALLEN WEISSELBERG, a longtime Trump Organization executive, is getting close to a plea deal with prosecutors on tax fraud charges — but it's not expected to include any cooperation with an investigation into Trump, report NYT's Ben Protess, William Rashbaum and Jonah Bromwich . But the company itself is not expected to plead guilty alongside him. There's a hearing scheduled for Thursday. Though the 75-year-old Weisselberg could have faced up to 15 years behind bars on the charges, the deal will likely land him in jail for about 100 days. "Prosecutors have long hoped that they could persuade Mr. Weisselberg to testify against Mr. Trump … But Mr. Weisselberg has refused to meet with them." REMEMBERING IVANA TRUMP — In N.Y. Mag this morning, Nina Burleigh tells the story of the isolated end of Trump's life, including the younger Italian paramour whom her friends dislike and whose death undid her. "The day before she died, Ivana was the happiest she'd been since before [ROSSANO] RUBICONDI'S death. She was primping for her first trip to Europe in three years," Burleigh writes. But it appears that Trump died as many of her loved ones long feared she would: They "hated those stairs. … She ignored her friends' and family's pleas to sell the townhouse and move into a hotel suite. They feared she would slip and fall down those stairs and hurt herself. At some point in the past few years, her kids bought her one of those emergency 'I've fallen and I can't get up' devices, but she refused to wear it." AMERICA AND THE WORLD DEAL OR NO DEAL — There was some sense that Monday would be the deadline for reviving the Iran nuclear deal, but negotiations now look like they could stretch longer after Iran delivered a response that raised questions about sanctions and the economy, Stephanie Liechtenstein and Nahal Toosi report with a Vienna dateline. "The response as delivered suggests that Iran wants to continue negotiating some aspects of the draft text and falls short of providing a final reply … Yet, the Iranian reply does not sound 'too inflammatory,' according to the Western official." PROMISES MADE … A year after the U.S. vowed to evacuate 144 family members of 10 civilians whom an American drone strike accidentally killed in Afghanistan, nearly three dozen are still stuck in the country, NYT's Eric Schmitt reports. The rest are trapped in Kafkaesque "diplomatic limbo," not having reached the U.S. yet. And after the recent killing of al-Qaida's AYMAN AL-ZAWAHRI, the path for the 32 still in Afghanistan has grown even more treacherous. "Lawyers for the family members praised the efforts of the Pentagon and the State Department … But they said much more needed to be done and were now breaking their silence." But, but, but: WaPo's Abigail Hauslohner has a similar story, billed as an exclusive, that frames the situation differently: "The Biden administration in recent weeks has moved out of Afghanistan nearly four dozen relatives of the 10 civilians." She details the incredibly complex process by which American officials negotiated to get them overland to Pakistan and then on a flight to Albania. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Chinese President XI JINPING is heading to Saudi Arabia as soon as this week. "The visit not only affirms China's growing global influence, but it lets [Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN] signal to the Biden administration that the U.S. has a serious rival as Riyadh's superpower patron of choice," Phelim Kine writes. "CIA sued over alleged spying on lawyers, journalists who met Assange," Reuters THE ECONOMY HEADED IN THE WRONG DIRECTION — Homebuyer confidence dropped again this month in the U.S., marking the eighth consecutive month of decline — a streak last reached in 2007, per new data from the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo. More from Bloomberg — And renters are facing increasing precarity, according to a new Freddie Mac study that finds 62% of survey respondents "were concerned about not being able to pay for their housing in the next year," per CNN. "Falling Oil Prices Defy Predictions. But What About the Next Chapter?" NYT
| | | | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Chuck Grassley is excited about the Iowa State Fair : "time 2see butter cow biggest boar super bull biggest ram etc." Lloyd Austin has Covid-19 for the second time. Julián and Joaquin Castro faced off on the tennis court. Debbie Wasserman Schultz engaged Kasie Hunt in some very light trash talk ahead of the Congressional Women's Softball Game. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Charlie Spies' 50th birthday party at the Wildhorse Saloon on Saturday and Hyatt Centric Hotel on Sunday in Nashville: Lisa Spies, Austin Chambers, Tevi Troy, Kerri Kupec, Keith Urbahn, Keith Sonderling, Samantha Dravis, Morgan Ortagus and Jonathan Weinberger, Pete Bisbee, Bob and Suzy Pence, Boca Raton, Fla., Mayor Scott Singer, Alexandra Kendrick, Jason and Patty Roe, Blake Harris and Stu Sandler. STAFFING UP — Jean Roehrenbeck is now deputy assistant Transportation secretary for legislative affairs. She previously was chief of staff to Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.). More from the New Jersey Globe … Nate Evans is now comms director and spokesperson at the U.S. Mission to the U.N. He most recently was deputy chief of staff for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and is a Biden campaign alum. TRANSITIONS — Brendan Conley is now a director at Hamilton Place Strategies. He most recently was Iowa comms director for Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), and is a Bruce Poliquin alum. … Brendan Seifert is joining The Data Trust as political data acquisition coordinator. He most recently was on the Natural Products Association's government affairs team. … Harry Khanna has started a legal tech company called Magistrate. He previously was a senior software engineer at the DNC, and is a Wilson Sonsini and Sullivan & Cromwell alum. ENGAGED — Mike Martin, deputy chief of staff for Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), and Kelly Riley, an elementary school special education teacher, got engaged Saturday on the Baltimore Waterfront Promenade, where they used to take walks together while living in Baltimore. They originally met through two of their best friends. Pic … Another pic — Matt Mackowiak, president of Potomac Strategy Group, and Amy Sowa, a speech therapist who works with children, got engaged Saturday in Austin. He proposed at the site of their first conversation, Native Hostel, followed by a romantic dinner at Jeffrey's and then a surprise party hosted by Laura Pendergrass featuring 30 of their closest friends at III Forks, the site of their first date. The couple attended UT-Austin at the same time, and they reconnected in the middle of 2021. Pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Natasha Dabrowski, press secretary at AmeriCorps, and Josh Fendrick, manager of U.S. policy at Coinbase, got married Saturday at The Masonic in Detroit. Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.), Natasha's former boss at the New Democrat Coalition, officiated. The couple met in 2016, when Natasha asked Josh out to coffee to get his advice on how to land a job on Capitol Hill. She ended up with a Hill job and husband. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Colleen Peters, Caitlyn Stephenson, Angeli Chawla, Marguerite Biagi, Ben and Melissa Turner, Ethan Holmes, Ian Mariani, Baillee Brown, Elizabeth Connolly, Nick Larsen, Jen Fox, Conor McCabe, Katie Conley, Cara Pavlock, Meredith Hoing, Amanda Baity, Martha Spieker, Aaron White and Pat Donovan. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.) … Business Roundtable's Josh Bolten … Jen Cytryn … Steve Abbott of Sen. Susan Collins' (R-Maine) office … Ramesh Ponnuru … Jack Quinn of Manatt … Michael Grunwald … Voter Participation Center's Tom Lopach … Lisa Graves … Erin Casey French … Axios' Danielle Jones … Crypto.com's Chris Golden ... Dave DenHerder ... Neil McKiernan of Rep. Joe Courtney's (D-Conn.) office ... Tom Anfinson … POLITICO's Dominick Pierre … Rick Chessen … Adam Hersh … Karly Moen of Sen. Patty Murray's (D-Wash.) office … Michael K. Lavers … Seth Colton … Jerry Hagstrom of the Hagstrom Report/National Journal … Stacey Daniels of Sen. Cynthia Lummis' (R-Wyo.) office … Tyler Grimm … Options Clearing Corporation's Jim Hall ... Edelman's Tyson Greaves … Grant Rumley … Ellen Weissfeld … Marshall Cohen … former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (D-Ill.) … former Reps. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), Dick Zimmer (R-N.J.), Rick Berg (R-N.D.) and Gary Myers (R-Pa.) … Dean Thompson … Abe Adams of Targeted Victory … Steve Demby … CC Jaeger of the Herald Group Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Corrections: Sunday's Playbook misstated the first name of the candidate that the NYT editorial board endorsed in NY-10. It is Daniel Goldman. Monday's Playbook misstated which states have primary elections Aug. 16.
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