Thursday, August 11, 2022

💥Inflation Cracks – But the End Isn’t in Sight Yet

Good morning. It finally happened. After months of rising higher and higher on an annualized...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. It finally happened. After months of rising higher and higher on an annualized basis, inflation has finally cracked. While the market liked the read of "only" an 8.5 percent year-over-year increase, it's still incredibly high by any standard.

And inflation is cumulative. So the longer it's higher than average, the more destructive it will be for investors over time. While it's a sign of good news, getting inflation down faster still means the economy will need to see a bigger slowdown from where it's at now.

So while markets jumped on the news, it's possible that as the reality of higher inflation than expected for longer could easily lead to another market pullback. That's just another reason for traders to stay cautious and look for downside opportunities.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,309.51 +1.63%
S&P 4,210.24 +2.13%
NASDAQ 12,854.80 +2.89%
*As of market close
Stocks soared on Wednesday, as inflation finally trended down off of multi-decade highs.
Oil rose 1.1 percent, closing at $91.52 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.3 percent, last going for $1,806 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies rose, with Bitcoin at $23,638 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Stack Shares of Companies that Build During Bear Markets
During bear markets, retail investors get fearful. But the wealthy and institutional investors know it's time to buy – even if it may be months or years for a buy to pay off.

With the market down and the economy moving into reverse as inflation takes a bite, valuations in many sectors are compelling enough to entice new investments and merger activities now. Those who follow those trends could fare well in the future.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Manitowoc Co (MTW)
Aaron Ravenscroft, President and CEO of Manitowoc Co (MTW), recently picked up 3,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 1.4 percent, and came to a total price of just under $34,000.

The buy comes several days after two directors at the company also picked up shares. Each bought about $25,000 worth of the stock at the start of August. That follows up on other buys throughout the year. Over the past three years, company insiders have only bought and never sold shares.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp (WSC)
Shares of portable storage company WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp (WSC) are up nearly 47 percent in the past year. One trader sees a pullback ahead in the coming weeks.

That's based on the September $35 puts. With 36 days until expiration, 3,082 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 104, for a 30-fold increase in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.35 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Inflation Finally Slows

The latest consumer price index data shows a year-over-year increase of 8.5 percent. That's a drop from last month's 9.1 percent increase, and is the first sign in months that inflation is starting to cool. The move was also slightly under expectations for an 8.7 percent increase for July.
Social Security Payouts Set for Largest Increase in 40 Years

Social Security payments are on track for their largest increase in nearly 4 decades. The cost-of-living adjustment occurs annually, and is based off of data from the third quarter of the year. The specific COLA amounts will be announced in October.
Musk Sells 7.9 Million Shares of Tesla

Elon Musk has sold 7.9 million shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA) in the past few days. The sale has raised nearly $6.9 billion, and mark the first sale from the company CEO since April, when he sold 9.6 million shares for nearly $8.5 billion.
Boeing Delivers First 787 Dreamliner Since 2021

After a nearly two-year pause, Boeing (BA) has delivered a 787 Dreamliner. The airline was on hold at a cost of nearly $5.5 billion, as the plane saw a number of manufacturing flaws. The plane is largely designed for long-haul international routes. The plane was delivered to American Airlines (AAL).
Coinbase Reports Steep Drop in Earnings Amid Crypto Winter

Cryptocurrency brokerage firm Coinbase (COIN) missed on both earnings and revenue expectations. The company was massively profitable in 2021 when crypto prices were soaring, but is seeing a significant drop amid the current crypto winter. The company is looking to limit costs until crypto market conditions improve.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
NCLH  12.066%
RCL  9.771%
CCL 9.187%
SIVB 7.735%
ETSY 7.376%
BOTTOM
CME 2.242%
DLTR 1.764%
RL 1.292%
WYNN 1.03%
VRTX 1.024%

Quote of the Day
If we get a good CPI report, which is what a lot of people are hoping for, I think you can switch the yield curve around and you can shift the odds of the Fed to be less aggressive from more aggressive. On the other hand, if it's a bad number, and it's still 9%, or it's still high month-over-month, the markets going to try to lock in 75 (basis points) for September.
- Andy Brenner, analyst at National Alliance, on why the upcoming CPI data may give markets a reason to continue rallying from here, or to cause a pullback once again in the markets if inflation remains hot despite the strong string of interest rate hikes so far this year.

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