⚡ Historic House peril

Plus: 3 signs of stalling "red wave" | Wednesday, August 10, 2022

Open in app View in browser     Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Aug 10, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 936 words ... 3.5 minutes.     1 big thing: Historic House peril Data: Axios research; Table: Simran Parwani/Axios The 2022 midterms are on track to see the most losses by House members in their primaries in three decades, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. Why it matters: The number of incumbents who have been ousted — or are likely to be toppled in upcoming primary contests — highlights a political realignment that has been underway in both parties for years. This year's primary bloodbath follows 2020's, which saw the most primary losses in a non-redistricting year since 1974. State of play: 11 House members have lost their primaries so far this cycle — seven Republicans and four Democrats. Several common trends have emerged: Incumbent vs. incumbent: 10 House members were forced to compete with a colleague for a district after their state lost a seat in reapportionment. Progressive vs. moderate: Progressive Reps. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) and Marie Newman (D-Ill.) lost to more moderate colleagues, while centrist Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) lost to a liberal primary challenger. Trump's revenge: In five cases, former President Trump's endorsement helped topple incumbents who broke with him on impeachment or, in other cases, major legislation. Ethics issues: Reps. Steven Palazzo (R-Miss.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) lost to insurgents amid ethics controversies, with Cawthorn in particular engulfed in a cloud of scandal. What we're watching: Another incumbent will fall in New York's 12th District, where Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler, as well as attorney Suraj Patel, are facing off in a hotly contested Democratic primary. Two more members are at serious risk of losing in the coming weeks: Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is seen as the underdog in her Aug. 16 primary versus Trump-endorsed challenger Harriet Hageman. Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) is also facing an uphill battle against a crowded Democratic field in a district he's never represented. By the numbers: That would put the number of incumbents who lost their primaries at 14, the second most since 1948. In 1992, 19 incumbents lost renomination, according to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Share this story.     2. 🌊 3 signs of stalling "red wave" Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios   Three August elections that pitted Republicans against Democrats on the same ballot are providing fresh indications that Democrats have gained political momentum over the summer, Axios' Josh Kraushaar writes: In Minnesota's 1st District special election yesterday, Republican Brad Finstad only defeated Democrat Jeff Ettinger by four points in a district that former President Trump carried by 10 points in 2020. Finstad's winning margin was only slightly wider than the late GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn's three-point victory in 2020. In Washington's 8th District, a swing seat in which candidates from all parties were on the same primary ballot, Democrats won 49.6% of the vote (led by Washington Rep. Kim Schrier), while Republicans won 49.2%. Schrier held the bellwether seat — which Republicans should be winning decisively in a strong midterm cycle — by four points in 2020. In Washington's Senate race, Democratic Sen. Patty Murray — who has become a Republican target — won 52.5% of the vote, while Republicans (led by top recruit Tiffany Smiley) tallied 41.2%. The results show Republicans are making inroads but not nearly enough to unseat the veteran senator in a solid blue state. Share this story.     3. 📈 Midterms tracker: China interest surges Data: Google Trends. Map: Jacque Schrag and Will Chase/Axios "China" became the third most-searched topic across the nation last week out of a list of issues likely to sway midterm voters, Axios' Stef Kight writes from our Google Trends midterm tracker. Why it matters: The attention and controversy over Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan extended outside the D.C. bubble, capturing national attention. China's ranking was the highest it's been since Axios began tracking the data in late May. Between the lines: The dashboard also revealed a surge in attention related to Kansas voters' rejection of an anti-abortion constitutional amendment last week. In Kansas' 4th District, which includes the city of Wichita, abortion became the most-searched topic — outpacing jobs, which is highly unusual. All four Kansas districts recorded more Google search interest in abortion than any other district in the country, with Missouri's neighboring 5th District following closely behind. Share this story ... Explore the data.     A message from Axios NEW: Subscribe to Axios Communicators     Get the latest topics and trends impacting the way leaders, organizations and employers communicate. Why it matters: Axios Communicators will help inform your strategy and offer insight into the rapidly evolving world of sharing and receiving information. Subscribe for free     4. 🏙️ Scoop: Miami mayor eyes White House Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images   Miami Mayor Francis Suarez's political operation is making subtle but significant moves toward a potential White House run, Axios' Lachlan Markay has learned. Why it matters: A presidential bid by Suarez, a Republican, would test his party's acceptance of internal dissent: he's publicly criticized both former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, considered the two clear favorites for the 2024 nomination. Suarez is nonetheless considered a rising political star who's overseen the ascendance of one of America's fastest-growing and most dynamic cities. He currently serves as president of the United States Conference of Mayors, which represents over 1,400 cities with populations of 30,000 or more. Driving the news: Suarez and his political team are now looking to take that brand national — and, specifically, to states crucial for any presidential aspirant. In May, a group formed by his political consultants began running digital ads targeting Facebook and Instagram users in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to Meta advertising data. Keep reading.     5. 🇺🇸 Parting shot Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images   Above: President Biden embraces his grandson Robert Biden II, the son of the late Beau Biden, after signing a law expanding health care benefits for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. "When they came home, many of the fittest and best warriors that we sent to war were not the same — headaches, numbness, dizziness, cancer," Biden said in remarks from the White House East Room. "My son Beau was one of them."     A message from Axios NEW: Subscribe to Axios Communicators     Get the latest topics and trends impacting the way leaders, organizations and employers communicate. Why it matters: Axios Communicators will help inform your strategy and offer insight into the rapidly evolving world of sharing and receiving information. Subscribe for free   .📬 Thanks for reading tonight. Send us tips or feedback by hitting reply to this newsletter or emailing sneak@axios.com. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: