Monday, August 8, 2022

☕ All-nighter

Biden gets his signature economic legislation...
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Morning Brew

The Ascent

Good morning. Just realizing that it's basically the middle of August and we still don't have a definitive "Song of the Summer" for everyone to rally around. Last year had "Good 4 U," 2017 had "Despacito," and 2012 brought us "Call Me Maybe."

But this year is slim pickings. Lizzo's "About Damn Time"? Maybe "Running Up That Hill"? Can a song that was released in 1985 still count as a Song of the Summer 37 years later? Your thoughts are welcome.

Neal Freyman

MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

12,657.56

S&P

4,145.19

Dow

32,803.47

10-Year

2.834%

Bitcoin

$23,241.61

Netflix

$226.78

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 7:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The S&P has clawed back 14% from its mid-June low, but it was in such a deep hole that it's still down 13% for the year. Some beaten-down stocks have also staged an impressive summer rally—Netflix, for instance, is up 30% this quarter as investors have warmed up to its turnaround plan.

GOVERNMENT

Bleary-eyed Senate passes historic bill

Chuck Schumer celebrates the passage of the IRA Drew Angerer/Getty Images

You know that feeling when you finally cross off a big hairy task on your to-do list that's been sitting there forever? Democrats are luxuriating in it this morning.

After 18 months of fierce negotiations—and an all-nighter on Saturday night for good measure—the Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a milestone victory for President Biden's economic agenda. The IRA brings major changes to taxes and healthcare, and ramps up the fight against climate change with the country's largest ever federal investment in clean energy.

The process: Because the IRA was formed as part of the budget reconciliation process, it needed all 50 Democrat votes, plus a tiebreaker from VP Kamala Harris, to pass. No Republicans supported the bill. The House is expected to pass it on Friday, and then it'll head to Biden's desk for his signature.

What's in the bill?

Here's our best effort in condensing a 755-page whopper into three bullet points:

  • Climate change: The bill will provide $260 billion in tax credits for renewable energy in order to bring down the cost of solar, wind, and other clean power sources. According to an independent analysis from the REPEAT Project, the IRA could help the US lower emissions to 40% below 2005 levels before this decade is out.
  • Taxes: The IRA will raise more than $700 billion in government revenue over a decade, and changes to the tax system are the main reason why. The bill slaps a 15% minimum tax on megacorporations with meaty profits, and introduces a 1% excise tax on share buybacks. It's also plugging the IRS with the agency's biggest budget increase in history to beef up feeble tax collection efforts.
  • Healthcare: The bill includes a suite of changes that are intended to lower drug prices, including—for the first time—allowing Medicare to negotiate some prescription drug prices with pharma companies. But some Democratic priorities, such as introducing an insulin price cap for private insurance, were struck down at the last minute by Republicans.

One other thing the Inflation Reduction Act does not appear to do: reduce inflation. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the bill would have a "negligible" effect on inflation this year and into 2023.

Bottom line: Lawmakers in Washington are quietly having a very productive summer. Before the IRA, they a) passed a bill to bolster the American semiconductor industry and b) agreed to the most significant gun reform in decades. Both of those bills had Dem. and GOP support.—NF

        

TOGETHER WITH THE ASCENT

There's a lot you can do in 21 months

The Ascent

A lot can happen in 21 months. When we turned 21 months old, we went from sleeping 30 hours a day to saying more than 50 words (not to brag or anything).

But since you're an adult, you can spend 21 months paying zero interest on balance transfers with this credit card. And trust us, building credit with this card is way more exciting than playing with building blocks.

This card also offers a 0% intro APR period on purchases and no annual fee. Let's see a 1.75-year-old say that three times fast.

Apply today.

        

WORLD

Tour de headlines

This picture taken from the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon shows Palestinian rockets fired from the Gaza Strip on August 7, 2022 Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

Cease-fire in Gaza. Israel and Palestinian militants agreed to a truce that went into effect Sunday evening local time, bringing some potential quiet after an outbreak of violence. Israeli aistrikes killed at least 44 people, including two top commanders of the Iranian-backed militant group Islamic Jihad. In response to the airstrikes, militants in Gaza fired more than 1,000 rockets into Israel, some of which were aimed at Jerusalem.

A fourth Muslim man was killed in Albuquerque. A Muslim man from South Asia was the latest victim in a spurt of killings in Albuquerque that may be targeting the Muslim community, police said. Last November, an Afghan immigrant was fatally shot outside of his store, and two more people from Pakistan were killed in recent weeks. Investigators believe the crimes are all related.

The government wants to help out air passengers. The Department of Transportation proposed some new rules for airlines last week after getting pummeled with complaints over delayed and canceled flights. In sum: Airline passengers could soon be entitled to full refunds if their flight is delayed by three hours or more, their arrival or departure airport is changed, connections are added to their itinerary, or the 787 Dreamliner they're supposed to be flying on is swapped out for the clunker they keep in the back—in other words, if plane quality gets downgraded significantly.

ECONOMY

Companies say abortion law will hurt Indiana's economy

Abortion rights protesters march outside the Indiana State Capitol building on July 25, 2022 in Indianapolis Jon Cherry/Getty Images

One of the big questions that arose following the overturning of Roe v. Wade was whether states that restricted abortion access would lose out on talent and business investment.

Indiana is shaping up to be an important test case. Last Friday, the state became the first to ban abortions by legislature since the SCOTUS ruling in June.

Abortion rights groups criticized the law—but so did some of the state's largest employers, who argued that Indiana was committing an own-goal for its economic interests.

  • Eli Lilly, the pharma giant with more than 10,000 employees in Indianapolis, said it was concerned that the law will "hinder Lilly's—and Indiana's—ability to attract diverse scientific, engineering, and business talent from around the world."
  • A spokesperson for engine manufacturer Cummins, which employs nearly 10,000 Indianans, said it will "impede our ability to attract and retain top talent and influence our decisions as we continue to grow our footprint…"

The Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce also warned that the abortion ban could make it harder to draw conventions and tourists. After Indiana passed a religious freedom law in 2015, it lost out on 12 conventions and $60 million in business, per the Washington Post.

Big picture: It's too early to definitively say that a state's abortion ban will lead to a brain drain. Texas, for instance, passed the country's most restrictive abortion law more than a year ago, and its powerhouse economy (it has the most Fortune 500 company HQs of any state) is showing no signs of wear.—NF

        

CALENDAR

The week ahead

Jurassic Park GIF made into a meme about inflation MovementMemes via Giphy

Has inflation peaked? The marquee event on the economic calendar this week is Wednesday's consumer price index report, which measures inflation. Not trying to jinx it, but with gas prices plummeting for more than 50 straight days, economists expect inflation to have cooled off a bit in July.

Earnings: We've come to the final act of earnings season, with 87% of S&P 500 companies already having dropped their financials. The grand finale this week stars Coinbase, Disney, and Bumble.

Everything else:

  • Kenya will hold its presidential election on Tuesday.
  • Lego turns 90 on Wednesday.
  • Don't look up…if you don't want to see a show. The Perseids meteor shower hits its peak on Saturday.

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Still life of Tresiba insulin pens on yellow. Joan Slatkin/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Stat: Let's return to the issue of the insulin price cap, which failed to make it into the Inflation Reduction Act due to GOP opposition. Insulin is required by more than 7 million Americans with diabetes each day, but it's just crazy expensive in the US, costing eight times more here than in 32 other high-income nations. According to a recent Yale study, 14% of people who use insulin in the US spend at least 40% of their income after food and housing on the medicine.

Quote: "If it's just a paycheck, then it's like what have you reduced your life to?"

The author Malcolm Gladwell won himself a few more enemies this weekend when he bashed remote work as detrimental to society. Appearing on the Diary of a CEO podcast, Gladwell argued that remote work hinders an employee's ability to feel fulfilled by their job. "I know it's a hassle to come into the office, but if you're just sitting in your pajamas in your bedroom, is that the work life you want to live?" .

Read: The secret history of the US government's family-separation policy. (The Atlantic)

TOGETHER WITH WORKDAY

Workday

Happy employees are future-proof. When you cultivate a workplace where employees feel heard and engaged, you foster a solid competitive advantage. Wanna unlock the power of effective engagement? Workday's e-book outlines the measures you need to consider to gain the employee-engagement edge. Read it for free.

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Gustavo Petro was sworn in as Colombia's first leftist president.
  • Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought the dip last quarter, purchasing $3.8 billion in stocks while the S&P fell 16%.
  • More human remains—the fourth such discovery—were found at Lake Mead, where dropping water levels are revealing all sorts of mysteries.
  • A museum in London is returning 72 artifacts to the Nigerian government that were looted by British forces in Benin in 1897.

BREW'S BETS

Dive back into the week:

Prison diaries: These interviews with inmates show what people really make (and spend) behind bars.

How to create a personalized audience experience in a post third-party cookies era: Deva Bronson of Dentsu Media and Brian Morris of PwC join Marketing Brew to discuss solutions on Aug. 10 at noon ET. Register here.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Turntable: If you're not already a Turntable player, make today the day you get hooked. Play it here.

Crazy eights

Today is 8/8, so here are questions all related to the number eight.

  1. Spiders have eight legs. But how many eyes do they typically have?
  2. Athletes in which league compete in The Octagon?
  3. Who was the eighth president of the US?
  4. A phone number ending in five 8s sold for $325,000 in this country, which considers eight a lucky number.
  5. Who directed the 2015 film The Hateful Eight?

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ANSWER

  1. Also eight
  2. UFC
  3. Martin Van Buren
  4. China
  5. Quentin Tarantino
         

Written by Neal Freyman

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