🇺🇸 New swing vote

Plus: Gay marriage evolution | Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Toyota   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Jul 20, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 891 words ... 3.5 minutes.     1 big thing: New swing vote New U.S. citizens wave American flags during a naturalization ceremony. Photo: John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images   The number of immigrants who became U.S. citizens in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Florida between fiscal years 2016 and 2020 is greater than the 2020 presidential margin of victory in each of those states, according to a new report. Why it matters: The growing demographic of naturalized citizens has the potential to become an election-deciding voting bloc — especially in swing states that could determine which party controls Congress this fall, Axios' Stef Kight and Sophia Cai write. What to watch: The report, released today by the National Partnership for New Americans, notes that newly naturalized citizens are typically less likely to register and turn out to vote than U.S.-born citizens. A change in that trend would be significant. Both parties are already wooing these new and prospective eligible voters. The Republican National Committee has launched a program to help immigrants prepare for the civics portion of the naturalization test. The Democratic Party has also backed grassroots groups that organize citizenship drives, many of which ramped up their efforts when former President Trump was elected. Zoom in: The electoral impact could be greatest in Georgia, a state that turned blue in the 2020 presidential and Senate elections for the first time in decades. Just over 96,000 Georgia citizens naturalized between FY 2016 and 2020, eight times the margin of President Biden's 12,000-vote victory. This year, a total of 116,000 citizens newly naturalized in Georgia since FY 2016 will have the opportunity to help decide control of the U.S. Senate — which swung to Democrats in 2020 after Sen. Jon Ossoff won his runoff by a margin of about 55,000. In Arizona, where Biden defeated Trump by just over 10,000 votes, an estimated 64,000 people naturalized between FY 2016 and 2020. That includes nearly 29,000 people from Mexico alone. An additional 33,000 citizens have naturalized between FY 2020 and 2022, potentially making them eligible to vote in this year's toss-up Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevada, Pennsylvania and Florida have competitive Senate races and gubernatorial elections this year as well. In all three states, there were more citizens who naturalized over the five years leading up to the 2020 elections than ballots separating Biden and Trump. By the numbers: Nationwide, 5.1 million citizens are estimated to have naturalized between FY 2016 and the 2022 midterms, including 1.4 million since FY 2020, according to the report. Share this story.     2. 🏛️ Dems' DOMA evolution Data: U.S. House of Representatives Office of the Clerk; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Seventeen current House members — including Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) — voted just 26 years ago to define marriage as between one man and one woman and allow states to refuse to recognize same-sex marriages, Stef writes. Thirteen of those members have since changed their positions — voting Tuesday to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act and enshrine marriage equality into federal law. Why it matters: Solid Democratic support for marriage equality — much less bipartisan support — is a remarkably recent phenomenon. By the numbers: In 1996, 118 out of 198 House Democrats voted in favor of DOMA, along with 224 out of 234 Republicans. Just one Republican — openly gay former Rep. Steve Gunderson (R-Wis.) — voted against the bill, while nine others did not vote. Eleven of those Democrats are still in Congress and voted to repeal the 1996 bill on Tuesday. Two Republicans still serving changed their 1996 positions and voted to codify same-sex marriage rights: Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and Ken Calvert (R-Calif.). Share this story.     3. 👬 Tweet du jour Via Twitter Flashback: In 2012, then-Vice President Biden sent the Obama re-election campaign scrambling when he expressed his personal support for same-sex marriage on "Meet the Press." President Obama and his aides had reportedly been choreographing a rollout of his own evolved view, but Biden's unfiltered comments forced their hand. Two days later, Obama publicly affirmed his support of same-sex marriage in an interview with ABC's Robin Roberts.     A message from Toyota 5 million electrified vehicles strong     Toyota has put more than 5 million electrified vehicles on U.S. roads since 2000. That's more than any other automaker. Take note: One in every four vehicles Toyota sold last year in the U.S. was electrified. Globally, it aims for seven out of ten by 2030. Get more details.     4. 🐘 GOP's quiet primary offensive Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   A well-funded Republican political apparatus has quietly sought to tip the scales in key GOP primaries this year, funding local-sounding super PACs to try — with limited success so far — to knock off hard-right Republican candidates, Axios' Lachlan Markay reports. Why it matters: Newly released campaign finance records show how Republican operatives aligned with GOP leadership in Washington are trying to surreptitiously kneecap more extreme elements that could cost the party some key House and Senate seats. Details: The operation's nerve center is a super PAC called the Eighteen Fifty Four Fund, formed this year by Kevin McLaughlin, the former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Eighteen Fifty Four, named for the year the Republican Party was founded, was formed to "supplement" the work of super PACs aligned with the party's House and Senate leaders, a spokesperson told Axios in April. The intrigue: Those leadership-aligned groups have generally stayed out of intra-party primary fights. But according to new financial filings, Eighteen Fifty Four has bankrolled groups explicitly devoted to opposing more hard-right candidates in those contests. Keep reading.     5. 🌎 Parting shot Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images   From left: Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry trail behind President Biden on a visit to a former coal plant in Somerset, Massachusetts. "This is an emergency and I will look at it that way," Biden said as he announced new executive actions on climate — while stopping short of declaring a formal climate emergency.     A message from Toyota From grandkids to grandparents, Jennifer makes vehicles safer for all     Jennifer Pelky, a senior engineering manager, oversees hundreds of safety evaluations for every Toyota model. What she's saying: "Safety is a top priority at Toyota. From our tiny newborn passengers to elderly drivers, I'm proud to work for a company that supports mobility for all." Learn more.   📬 Thanks for reading! 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