Thursday, July 21, 2022

🎈 How CHIPS+ ballooned

Plus: Messaging bills split GOP | Thursday, July 21, 2022
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Jul 21, 2022

Welcome back to Sneak, coming to you ahead of a prime-time Jan. 6 hearing focused on former President Trump's alleged inaction during the 187 minutes of the Capitol attack.

  • Smart Brevity™ count: 1,074 words ... 4 minutes.

Situational awareness: President Biden's COVID-19 sample has been sent for sequencing to determine which virus variant he contracted. The White House will provide daily updates on his condition.

 
 
1 big thing: How CHIPS+ ballooned
Illustration of a US flag made of semiconductor chips.

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

Once Senate leaders opened the door to moving on a China competitiveness bill over the weekend, a bipartisan group of senators knew exactly what it had to do: use the slimmed-down package as a shell to stuff in as many priorities as possible.

Why it matters: The emerging legislation goes far beyond the narrow $52 billion bill to shore up domestic semiconductor manufacturing that even the Biden administration was willing to settle for this month, Axios' Alayna Treene reports.

  • After a week of maneuvering from Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.), the new legislation more closely resembles the $250 billion bill the Senate passed last summer.
  • "There were very, very few changes from what they had previously voted on," Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), who also was involved, told Axios. "This really is what we passed out of the Senate."

Driving the news: The U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness Act (USICA) was on life support this month after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) threatened to tank the bill if Democrats pursued a robust reconciliation package reviving President Biden's Build Back Better agenda.

  • But once Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) killed a big reconciliation bill, GOP leaders quietly walked back McConnell's threat.
  • Sinema and Young swung into action and corralled a group of Senate Republicans and Democrats to load billions onto CHIPS-plus — while also managing to keep McConnell on board.

Between the lines: In the Senate, the nascent deal allows all sides to claim victory.

  • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has a big, beefy China bill heading for approval, along with a reconciliation package to lower prescription drug prices and shore up Obamacare health exchanges. That's two potential August wins before a November election.
  • McConnell can claim he forced Democrats to abandon their spending ambitions on climate while giving the China bill — which the business community desperately wants and which he voted for — a second chance.

The big picture: Several senators told Axios they were spooked after a classified briefing with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and defense and intelligence officials on July 13 that detailed the national security risks of not acting.

  • "Everybody got a glimpse of what was at stake," Cantwell said.

Behind the scenes: At 6pm Monday night, Sinema and Young gathered members who care deeply about USICA — in addition to the majority of the 20 senators involved in passing the bipartisan infrastructure and gun safety bills — for a meeting in the Capitol's LBJ room.

  • The provisions getting cut were crucial to national security, they stressed.
  • Young, after meeting alone with Senate Republicans, realized that some GOP senators' votes depended on making the bill bigger, a source with direct knowledge of the meeting told Axios.
  • "I'm not sure they would have had 60 votes for CHIPS only," they said. "There were a number of members who weren't really comfortable just moving forward with that on its own."

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2. 🌊 Wave watch: GOP's battleground edge
Kevin McCarthy and other House Republicans

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) with other House Republicans after the swearing-in ceremony for Rep. Mayra Flores last month. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

 

A new poll of the 56 most competitive battleground House districts found that Republicans hold a four-point advantage — 46% to 42% — on the generic congressional ballot, Axios' Josh Kraushaar writes.

Why it matters: Despite several recent polls showing incremental gains by Democrats, the reality is that the political environment remains favorable for Republicans.

Driving the news: The survey, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone for the AARP, indicates former President Trump is on average significantly more popular than President Biden in these swing districts.

  • Biden's job approval sits at just 37%, with 61% disapproving of his performance.
  • 50% of voters approve of Trump — higher than in other recent polls — while 49% disapprove.

Between the lines: This is the latest in a string of surveys showing Democrats losing ground with nonwhite voters, particularly Hispanics and Asian Americans.

Methodology: This poll interviewed 1,200 likely voters ages 18+ from July 5-12 in the 56 U.S. House districts that Cook Political Report rated as "lean" or "toss up" as of June 29, with a margin of error of ±2.83%.

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3. 🐘 Messaging bills split GOP

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) — pictured above wearing a taped message on her back that reads "My state is banning exceptions" and "protect contraception" — was one of eight House Republicans to vote with all Democrats on a bill protecting access to birth control in the wake of the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade decision.

  • "You can't ban abortion and then not protect women's access to contraceptives," Mace tweeted.

The other Republicans who voted for the bill were Reps. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), John Katko (R-N.Y.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), Maria Salazar (R-Fla.), Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio).

Latest: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) signaled today he would vote for a Democratic bill codifying same-sex marriage, raising the number of Senate Republicans who will likely support the measure to at least five.

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A message from Toyota

In your own backyard
 
 

Last year, thanks to hundreds of thousands of people, Toyota sold more vehicles in the U.S. than any other automaker.

What you're missing: 77% of those vehicles rolled off assembly lines right here in North America.

Learn more about Toyota's work in the U.S.

 
 
4. 💪 Dem governors run ahead of Biden
Data: Morning Consult and Cook Political Report. Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

The eight Democratic governors running in competitive races (anything rated less than "solid Democrat" by Cook Political Report) are all more popular than President Biden, according to surveys by Morning Consult Political Intelligence.

  • Even the weakest Democratic incumbent facing a tough re-election — Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers — is five points more popular than Biden in his state.

Go deeper: FiveThirtyEight's forecast for each governor's race

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5. 🥚 Newest DOJ asset
Screenshot: CNN's "New Day"

The Justice Department is now in possession of a possible Fabergé egg, which was discovered aboard a 348-foot yacht seized in Fiji over its alleged ties to a Russian oligarch.

  • "There are only 50 of them. And we know where 43 of them are," Fabergé egg expert Toby Faber told CNN. "If it's one of these seven that haven't turned up yet, then it's going to have to have a very good story for where it's been for the last 100 years."

🇺🇦 What to watch: Deputy attorney general Lisa Monaco said at the Aspen Security Forum that DOJ is seeking congressional approval to sell Russian assets seized via the Kleptocapture task force and send the proceeds to Ukraine.

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A message from Toyota

Visit a Toyota plant (virtually)
 
 

Toyota has plants across 11 states, from Indiana to Texas to Tennessee.

Want to take a tour? See how we work here in the U.S. Take a virtual tour and learn what auto manufacturing in America looks like today, including how electrified transaxles are assembled.

Take a tour and learn more.

 

📬 Thanks for reading! We'll be back Sunday with Josh Kraushaar's inaugural Sneak column.

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