| | | | | | | Presented By Meta | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Jul 25, 2022 | | Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 979 words ... 3.5 minutes. ⚡ Situational awareness: Two top advisers to former Vice President Mike Pence testified in a federal grand jury investigation into attempts to overturn the 2020 election backed by former President Trump, the Wall Street Journal reports. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Biden's recession juggling act |  | | | Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios | | | | President Biden has a new headache: He can't avoid the debate over whether the U.S. is in a recession, but if he dwells on it, he may hasten the very slowdown he's desperate to avoid. Why it matters: In economics, psychology matters, Axios' Hans Nichols writes. - If the country and consumers believe we're in a recession — even if we technically aren't — the economy will eventually slow down, turning Biden's inflation problem into a potential stagflation nightmare.
- Presidents can't talk their way out of an economic downturn, but they do have a unique ability to set the general tone of the country. Biden, like his predecessors, likes to accentuate positive economic data.
- But with a 9.1% inflation rate and potentially two quarters of negative GDP growth, Biden can't push the glass-half-full argument too far. His initial sanguine call on inflation — insisting it would be short-term — has already eroded some of his credibility.
Driving the news: On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release the initial GDP numbers for the second quarter of 2022, with economists expecting a 0.5% increase. Still, there are plenty of worrying signs: the Atlanta Fed's "nowcast" model suggests GDP growth will come in at -1.6%. - Biden officials have been pre-butting the numbers and challenging the yeoman's definition that a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
- "Certainly in terms of the technical definition, it is not a recession," Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, said on CNN this morning.
What they're saying: Today, Biden again downplayed the recession risk. - "My hope is we go from this rapid growth to steady growth and so we'll see some coming down," he said.
- "But I don't think, God willing, we're going to see a recession," he said. "I'll be surprised."
Between the lines: Biden's task will be all the more complicated if two big economic indicators — GDP and jobs growth — give different readings. - While growth may be slowing, the economy has added an average of 375,000 jobs a month over the past three months.
- But Americans' views on the economy are no longer as closely tied to the unemployment rate after the pandemic, according to a new paper.
Share this story. |     | | | | | | 2. 👀 New Dem meddling | | National Democrats are spending nearly half a million dollars to boost a far-right, Trump-endorsed conspiracy theorist in one of the most closely watched House races in the country, Axios' Lachlan Markay writes. Driving the news: A new TV ad from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee portrays Michigan Republican John Gibbs as the true pro-Trump conservative in his effort to unseat incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) — aligning with Gibbs' own campaign messaging. Why it matters: This latest example of Democrats meddling on behalf of a far-right candidate in hopes of securing a more favorable matchup in November could endanger one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. - Trump endorsed Gibbs' challenge after Meijer voted to impeach the former president over his role in fomenting the Jan. 6 Capitol siege.
- Meijer, a freshman, had been in Congress just days when he took that potentially career-ending vote.
- Like other far-right candidates that Democrats have boosted, Gibbs has also cast doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election — a position the party has portrayed as existentially threatening to American democracy.
A DCCC spokesperson told Axios it plans to spend $425,000 to air the ad in the Grand Rapids market beginning tomorrow. They did not respond when asked whether the ad was designed to boost Gibbs' primary bid. Share this story. | | | | | | | | 3. 🇭🇺 CPAC darling under fire |  | | | Photo: Gabriel Bouys/AFP via Getty Images | | | | Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is facing a fresh wave of criticism over a speech he delivered criticizing migration from outside of Europe and insisting Hungarians "do not want to become peoples of mixed-race." Why it matters: The far-right leader has become a darling of the U.S. conservative movement and will be a featured speaker at next month's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas, along with Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and other Republican politicians, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. - Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), a Republican critical of his party's loyalty to Trump, tweeted: "August 4, Dallas, CPAC is having this man as a speaker. Will potential candidates boycott CPAC? Or do they support pure race ideology?"
- CPAC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | A message from Meta | | The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real | | |  | | | | In the metaverse, surgical residents will be able to practice risky, complex cases over and over. The results: Improved training practices and better care for patients under even the most trying circumstances. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | | | | 4. ⛽ Biden vs. Big Oil | | The Biden-allied green group Climate Power plans to seize on this week's earnings reports from major oil and gas companies to blame them for high gas prices ahead of the midterms, Hans reports. - "This is why you're paying $5 at the pump," says the narrator of a video ad titled "Guess What," part of a broader $3 million campaign. "Oil company CEOs see an opportunity to charge more."
The big picture: The Biden administration and the oil companies have been engaged in chippy back-and-forth on who is to blame for high gas prices, which climbed above $5 per gallon in June but have since dropped to around $4.36, according to AAA. - "We're going to make sure everybody knows Exxon's profits," Biden said in June. "Exxon made more money than God this year."
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | 5. 🐕 Parting shot | | President Biden's COVID-19 symptoms have "almost completely resolved" four days since first testing positive for the virus, according to White House physician Kevin O'Connor. - Biden told reporters at a virtual event today he expects to be back to working in person by the end of the week and will likely speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming days.
| | | | | | | | A message from Meta | | The metaverse will make learning more interactive | | |  | | | | Imagine students roaming with dinosaurs in the Jurassic period, visiting a museum in Paris without a plane ticket or watching Mark Antony debate in ancient Rome. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | | 📬 Thanks for reading! Send us feedback by hitting reply to this newsletter or emailing sneak@axios.com |  | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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