Friday, June 17, 2022

POLITICO Illinois Playbook: Pritzker’s reverse psychology play

Shia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln
Jun 17, 2022 View in browser
 
Illinois Playbook

By Shia Kapos

TGIF, Illinois. We're off on Monday for Juneteenth, but back in your inbox Tuesday. In the meantime, consider marking the holiday by visiting a Black-owned business.

TOP TALKER

JB Pritzker's campaign and the Democratic Governors Association have spent a combined $34 million on a Republican primary so that in the general election, the governor could face a candidate he could easily beat.

That's the goal, at least. With 11 days until the Illinois primary, it appears to be working as Pritzker's team hoped. Republican Richard Irvin, the early frontrunner in the race with a tough-on-crime message, has lost ground to conservative Darren Bailey in the polls. The shift follows a barrage of ads that propped up Bailey — paid for by the DGA.

The extent of spending on an opposing party's primary isn't new. The DGA spent about half a million dollars on ads for Jeanne Ives in the GOP primary for governor four years ago. She came close to beating Bruce Rauner, who lost to Pritzker in the general election in 2018.

Far-right Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano recently won the GOP gubernatorial nomination with help from Democrats. And former Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill famously manipulated the 2012 Republican primary so that she faced Todd Akin in the general election, ultimately defeating him.

"We came up with the idea for a 'dog whistle' ad, a message that was pitched in such a way that it would be heard only by a certain group of people. I told my team we needed to put Akin's uber-conservative bona fides in an ad — and then, using reverse psychology, tell voters not to vote for him. And we needed to run the hell out of that ad," McCaskill wrote a few years later about the tactic.

Sound familiar? Pritzker and the DGA are using the same playbook to help Bailey — but to the Nth degree.

Where McCaskill spent $2 million on that reverse psychology campaign, Pritzker and the DGA have spent $34 million.

It's more than any candidate has ever spent on an opposing party in Illinois. It hasn't been seen "at this level," and it's never been "as obvious as they have been about it," former Republican Gov. Jim Edgar told Playbook.

It's also a dangerous tactic that could backfire on Democrats by the time November rolls around. It wasn't so long ago, after all, that Trump was seen as a bump in the road to Hillary Clinton's path to the presidency. And the economy isn't doing Democrats any favors.

One question: Why didn't the Irvin campaign see it coming? It's not that they weren't prepared, said a person familiar with the campaign's strategy. Irvin's team is run by the same political operatives who helped get Rauner elected. They knew the DGA could get involved.

The real surprise is how early those DGA ads started running — back in March — and more ads have followed from Pritzker and conservative billionaire Dick Uihlein, who has spent more than $4 million helping Bailey.

Add to it the media buys by other GOP candidates vying for governor, and "it feels like a five-on-one" pile-on, the person said. That's saying a lot from a campaign that's been funded to the tune of $50 million by billionaire Ken Griffin.

RELATED

Debates, dinners and door-knocking: Four other Republicans seek to make it clear they're in the race for governor, too: "Venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan, former state Sen. Paul Schimpf, Hazel Crest attorney Max Solomon and businessman Gary Rabine are working to get their final messages to undecided voters. All four proudly say they voted for former president Donald Trump, are anti-abortion and pro-Second Amendment rights," by Sun-Times' Tina Sfondeles.

THE BUZZ

Former President Donald Trump and former VP Mike Pence are each making stops in Illinois just days before the June 28 Primary Election.

Their appearances highlight the differences and divisions within the Republican Party, especially after yesterday's high-profile hearing in Washington, D.C., examining the events of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol that saw rioters come frighteningly close to Pence.

During Thursday's hearings, Pence's top aides detailed the pressure that Trump put on the former vice president to stop the process that would confirm Joe Biden's victory. Pence held firm, Biden became president, and Trump and Pence haven't spoken since.

Now both men could be in line to run for president in 2024, dividing the Republican Party between those who still falsely believe Trump won that election and those who know better.

First, there's a 2022 election

On Monday, the former VP will visit Chicago where he'll make a speech on the economy at the University Club.

His address is billed as a "major speech" that will highlight "the failures of progressive economic policies that have led to record inflation, record gas prices, and record pessimism about America's economy." It's the kind of speech a presidential candidate might give. (But we're getting ahead of ourselves.)

Pence then heads to Peoria to headline the high-profile Peoria and Tazewell County Republican Central Committees joint Lincoln Day dinner.

On June 25, Trump will visit the Quincy area to stump for Rep. Mary Miller during his "Save America" rally. Here's how to attend.

Miller, who's in a fierce primary battle with fellow Republican Rep. Rodney Davis for IL-15, said she's "honored" that Trump is endorsing her "over RINO Rodney Davis, who stabbed President Trump in the back by voting for the sham January 6th Commission."

Davis issued a statement in kind: "I'm proud of my conservative record of working with Trump when he was in office, and I won't shy away from it. I would hope President Trump and Republican voters are aware of the baggage Mary Miller has, including a convicted pedophile serving as her personal driver."

Like we said, it's fierce.

Still in question: Will Trump endorse Darren Bailey for governor?

RELATED

Mary Miller and Rodney Davis square off in the heated GOP primary to return to Congress: "Donald Trump's endorsement could end up being a big factor in the bitter primary fight for reelection between Miller and Davis," by WBEZ's Alex Degman.

Have a news tip, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? I'd like to hear from you: skapos@politico.com

WHERE'S JB

No official public events.

WHERE'S LORI

At St. Sabina at 7 p.m. for a peace rally and march.  

Where's Toni

Machining Systems Corporation in Crestwood at 9:30 a.m. for the launch of the Metals Hub, an initiative to establish a collaborative network of metals, machinery and equipment (MM&E) manufacturers in the Southland.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Former Congressman Luis Gutierez and Sen. Dick Durbin will announce a new initiative to assist with naturalization and citizenship. The announcement will be held at the Union League Club at 11 a.m.

CAMPAIGN MODE

Leading candidates in IL-03 gearing up for a close race : "This is a race that pits a sitting Chicago alderman against a sitting state representative from the city, each trying to balance their progressive credentials with the need to appeal to typically more conservative DuPage County voters out in the western part of the new district," reports ABC 7's Craig Wall.

Sen. Dick Durbin has endorsed Nancy Shepherdson for 5th District State Central Committeewoman seat. Shepherdson is an incumbent (redistricted into the 5th) who's in the race with state Rep. Margaret Croke — who's endorsed by Gov. JB Pritzker — and MWD's Mariyana Spyropoulos

— Bernie's back: Sen. Bernie Sanders hosts a "Get Out the Vote" rally Saturday at 9:30 a.m. in Humboldt Park. Sanders, who endorsed Delia Ramirez for the IL-03 race, is in Chicago for the annual "Labor Notes" conference that brings together workplace organizers and union representatives from across the country. … Sun-Times has more here. … The "Get Out the Vote" rally is free but RSVPs encouraged here.

— Richard Uihlein and Elizabeth Uihlein have each donated $2,900 to Catalina Lauf's bid for Congress in the IL-11 Republican primary.

— AIR TIME: David Moore will spend today in flight, stopping in cities across the state to promote his campaign for secretary of state. He'll stop in Rockford, Peoria, Springfield, Cahokia and Marion. … Moore also is out with a new ad talking about "being an underdog."

— Congressman Adam Kinzinger is endorsing Matt Hausman for Congress in the newly drawn IL-13 District.

— Rep. Mary Miller has been endorsed by Gun Owners of America.

Josef Michael Carr challenging state Rep. Tarver over effectiveness and ideology, by Hyde Park Herald's Aaron Gettinger

— Monica Gordon is out with a new video on Facebook promoting her run for commissioner for the 5th District of the Cook County Board.

— Precious Brady-Davis, candidate for commissioner at the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, is out with a new video. If she wins she'd be the first trans woman of color to be elected in Illinois. The ad's tag line, "nothing is more precious than water."

BUSINESS OF POLITICS

Accusations 'unfounded': Illinois Legislative Inspector General Michael McCuskey has ruled that a complaint accusing Sen. Melinda Bush of mishandling her political accounts and private business is "factually unsupported and therefore unfounded," according to a letter he wrote to Bush.

And he added, "Such conduct appears to have been an attempt to politically weaponize the filing of the complaint as a political action in advance of a proper investigation by this office."

THE STATEWIDES

Will strike by workers who produce gravel derail road construction season? "About 300 members of the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 hit the picket lines June 7 at 35 Chicago-area facilities owned by Lehigh Hanson, Vulcan Materials Co. and Holcim, union officials said," by Daily Herald's Marni Pyke.

Illinois paid out nearly $2B in federal funds for fraudulent pandemic unemployment claims, audit finds : "It's the first estimate for Illinois' share of the mammoth fraud that swept the country during the pandemic as states were hit with a deluge of unemployment claims," by Tribune's Joe Mahr and Dan Petrella.

As other states pass 'Don't Say Gay' measures, Illinois is 1 of 5 states to mandate 'inclusive learning, ' by WGN 9's Mike Lowe

Illinois school districts review safety plans after Texas shooting, by Tribune's Karen Ann Cullotta

Pritzker signs measure to protect victims in alcohol and drug-related rape cases, by Tribune's Jeremy Gorner

CHICAGO

New Inspector General's first report offers sharp critique of police watchdog agencies: "Newly appointed IG Deborah Witzburg issues her first report, finding that CPD's Bureau of Internal Affairs and the Civilian Office of Police Accountability need new standards," by Sun-Time's Andy Grimm and Fran Spielman.

TV, film production in Chicago hits a new record: "Producers spent $631 million in Illinois last year. With expanded state tax credits now approved, officials hope to pass the $1 billion mark soon," by Crain's Greg Hinz.

Lightfoot spared almost certain defeat on vote to raise speed camera ticket threshold: "The City Council's Finance Committee was poised to force the mayor to stop issuing $35 tickets to motorists caught going 6 to 9 mph over the speed limit when Chairman Scott Waguespack abruptly recessed the meeting," by Sun-Times' Fran Spielman.

City Council committee OKs extending benefits to families of first responders committing suicide : "The Finance Committee OK'd an ordinance that would grant to surviving spouses of police officers and firefighters who have died by suicide since Jan. 1, 2018 the same benefits afforded to families of first-responders killed in the line of duty," by Sun-Times' Fran Spielman.

Lifeguard shortage will delay Chicago pool openings until July 5, by Tribune's Adriana Pérez

Planned gospel museum gets a boost with $2.1M in state funds, by Sun-Times' Stefano Esposito

Boy, 11, killed by hit-and-run driver in Lawndale — third child killed by drivers in Chicago this month, by Sun-Times' David Struett

MAYOR'S RACE 2023

As World Sport Chicago's programs and funding diminished, Kam Buckner's salary grew: "Buckner is running for Chicago mayor and has touted his time on the nonprofit. But an analysis shows the WSC dissolved under his watch," by WBEZ's Mariah Woelfe.

COOK COUNTY AND COLLARS

Suburban representatives claim mutual funds —  but no individual stocks —  in new disclosures : "Financial disclosure reports from U.S. Reps. Mike Quigley of the 5th District, Jan Schakowsky of the 9th District, Bill Foster of the 11th and Lauren Underwood of the 14th were among those published online by the clerk of the U.S. House on Wednesday," by Daily Herald's Russell Lissau

Spring Hill Mall owners missed June 1 deadline to pay $102,000 Kane County property tax bill , by The Courier-News' Mike Danahey

— Column: Happy Father's Day to the old man picking up litter In South Holland, by Patch's Mark Konkol

DAY IN COURT

Woman who was grabbed, detained by cop while walking dog at North Avenue Beach files federal lawsuit: "The suit alleges excessive force at the hands of an officer who's since resigned and been criminally charged," by Sun-Times' Mitch Dudek.

Prosecutors investigating Parlor Pizza Bar's tax payments: "The subpoena marks the latest development in a string of problems for Parlor, which has also been investigated by the city for alleged sexual harassment, discrimination and labor law violations," by Tribune's Talia Soglin and Gregory Pratt.

Elise Malary, trans activist found in Lake Michigan, drowned but manner of death remains undetermined, autopsy finds , by Sun-Times' David Struett

POT-POURRI

Sounds familiar… Black entrepreneurs are failing in Detroit's weed market. Is the city to blame : "The city's effort to create a cannabis industry that mirrors — and benefits — its majority Black population has led to lawsuits and a collapsing marketplace. Meanwhile, the rest of the state thrives," by POLITICO's Paul Demko.

Reader Digest

We asked what you do to find the cheapest place for gas: Timothy Thomas: "During weekly bowling league in Hammond, Ind., I take a detour on the way home to find gas that is often 25 to 50 cents less expensive per gallon than just across the block in Chicago." ... Former DuPage County Board member and current candidate Janice Anderson : "I leave my car in the garage and get to the train by scooter — it gets 106 miles to the gallon."

Are you influenced more by direct mail or TV/digital ads and why? Email skapos@politico.com

WHERE'S RAHM

Rahm Emanuel's 'train geek' diplomacy is a hit in Japan: "The former Chicago mayor has been taking public transit on official trips, winning over local rail fans with his enthusiasm for trains," via Bloomberg.

SPOTLIGHT

Read: J. Michael Luttig's opening statement at Jan. 6 select committee hearing, via POLITICO

The Jan. 6 select committee makes a criminal referral — its own way, by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu

Tensions escalate as DOJ renews request for Jan. 6 panel transcripts, by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein

Key Trump lawyer sought presidential pardon after effort to overturn election failed, by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu

THE NATIONAL TAKE

Fifty years after Watergate, a generation of frightened editors, by POLITICO's John F. Harris

Schumer and Manchin are meeting to cobble together another bill on climate and tax reform, by POLITICO's Burgess Everett

— AP Interview: Biden says a recession is 'not inevitable'

DeSantis says Florida is 'affirmatively against' Covid-19 vaccines for young kids, by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian

TRIVIA

THURSDAY's ANSWER: Congrats to Jeff Lande for correctly answering that Arthur B. "Mickey" McBride was the taxicab tycoon, mobbed-up horse racing wire-service operator, and NFL team founder who dropped out of the fourth grade to focus on his business selling newspapers on an Englewood street corner.

TODAY's QUESTION: How did James M. Ragen, the co-founder and namesake of the infamous Canaryville Athletics Club, meet his end? Email skapos@politico.com

HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Today: State Rep. Jeff Keicher, MWRD president and Cook County assessor candidate Kari Steele, Cook County Forest Preserve's Eileen Figel, EMR principal consultant David Dolkart, Illinois Policy Institute VP of policy Adam Schuster, former congressional aide Craig Roberts, and PR pro Kiran Advani.

Saturday: State Rep. Aaron Ortiz, TV news producer Lisa Barron, Beyond the Beltway radio host Bruce DuMont, former Ald. Solomon Gutstein, Axion Analytical Laboratories' Antigone Polite, and journalist and former Better Government Association President Andy Shaw.

Sunday: Entrepreneur Andrew Perlman, Touch Communications owner Nina Mariano, and former political candidate William Olson,

Monday: Joint Legislative Black Caucus Chair and Rep. Sonya Harper, state Rep. Maurice West, Cook County Circuit Court Judge James Shapiro, Benjamin Marshall Society's Jane Lepauw, and Dan McManus, director of Strategic Initiatives for Sen. Duckworth.

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