| | | | | |  Beth Walrond | | IN THIS ISSUE | How to make yourself recession-proof | What the metaverse actually means | Why oat milk is so expensive | | | | Good morning. With the stock market and crypto prices crumbling like a Nature Valley bar, the question we're all asking ourselves is, "Should we have seen this coming?" In hindsight, probably. There have been many indications of a "market top"—when investor behavior became so irrational, so carefree, that it couldn't possibly defy gravity forever. What were those warning signs? Here were a few floating around the internet this week: - When Matt Damon said, "Fortune favors the brave" in a Crypto.com commercial in October 2021. (It actually was kinda the top, because bitcoin peaked at $69,000 a few weeks later.)
- When one investor went on CNBC last year to promote his investment in a lending platform called Upstart, he was asked what Upstart does. He hesitated, told the anchor his audio had cut out, and never responded.
- When dogecoin surged more than 10,000% to become the fourth most valuable cryptocurrency ahead of Elon Musk hosting SNL.
- When electric vehicle startup Rivian was worth more than $110 billion and didn't bring in any revenue.
- When NFT platform OpenSea raised money at a $13.3 billion valuation—more than the value of American Airlines.
If those events represent the top, we'll know the bottom is here when you finally agree with your dad's financial advice. —Neal Freyman | | | | | | | | | Louis Rosenberg testing the first functional augmented reality system in 1992. Photo: Louis Rosenberg Every time a billionaire CEO vaguely mentions the metaverse, our memory of Facebook fades a little bit more. But the concept of virtual worlds predates Zuckerberg's rebrand and represents a lot more than legless avatars. Louis Rosenberg, the CEO and chief scientist at Unanimous AI, founded two early augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) companies and developed the first functional AR system for the Air Force in the 90s. We chatted with Rosenberg about the early days of VR and AR tech and what the heck the metaverse will actually look like. How would you describe the metaverse? People often describe it in terms of the technology or hardware that's involved, where you're wearing virtual reality headsets or augmented reality glasses. But I think if you take a step back, you start to realize it really is this transition from a world where people look at digital content from the outside looking in, to a world where we are experiencing content from the inside [of it]. You've been studying AR and VR technology since the '90s. How has public perception of these technologies evolved? In the early '90s, there was so much excitement about virtual reality. It was the type of technology that everybody thought was the next big thing. And instead, we went into a virtual reality winter because in the late '90s all of the oxygen was sucked up by internet startups and the dot-com bubble. And people thought oh, yeah, we tried and it failed. When it didn't really fail. It just wasn't given enough time. Then, in the early 2010s, it started to come back to life, but instead of it being small startup companies that were pushing this space, it's been major corporations. Should the metaverse make us nervous? The technologies of the metaverse, by their very nature, have the potential to give the platform providers incredible levels of power. I think it's actually really scary. The metaverse is going to take us from a world where Big Tech platforms, which are currently tracking where you click, track everything about your life. They currently track people and use the information to profile people and sell targeted advertising. In the metaverse, there will be these new forms of advertising. And they'll be far more persuasive than just pop-up ads. How so? Instead of advertisers putting a pop-up advertisement for a soft drink on your screen, in the metaverse I could just be walking down the street and I might see somebody drinking a particular brand of soft drink and I might walk a little further and see somebody drinking the same brand of soft drink and I might think, "Well, that drink is pretty popular around here." And I might not realize that those are virtual product placements injected into my world on behalf of a paying advertiser. This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity. | | | | | | You've got your IRA, your 401(k), and even some investments, but you're still not 100% sure you're making the right financial moves for you. Facet Wealth believes financial planning should be highly personal—not some recycled strategy monologue. That's why you can meet virtually with your own Certified Financial Planner™ to receive unbiased advice suited to your life. On top of investment strategies and retirement planning, Facet advises on the more personal aspects of your funds too, like understanding your company's stock options, saving up to start your dream biz, and much more. No wonder they scored a 95% customer satisfaction rating. The future of financial planning has arrived, and it's right on the money. Team up with Facet Wealth here. | | | | Each week, our workplace whisperer Shane Loughnane answers a reader-submitted question about problems at work. Anything nagging at you? Ask Shane here. I'm a recent grad about six months into a new role as an account executive for a software company. Things have been going well overall and I like the job and my team, but it's hard to ignore all of the recession talk, especially since I have a friend who was laid off from her job just last week. Should I be worried? Is there anything I can do to "recession-proof" myself?—Jeremy in PA Growing up I would often play Scrabble with my late grandmother (who incidentally lived through a dozen recessions). An unapologetic opponent of the Official Scrabble Dictionary, she would insist our matches adhere strictly to "the Queen's English." In her honor I've dusted off ol' Oxford, which defines worry as "a state of unhappiness…caused by thinking about unpleasant things that might happen." I don't know about you, but that seems like a course of action we can easily dismiss. So, what should you be if not worried? In a word: proactive—a quality you're already demonstrating by posing this question. It's easy to get complacent when we have a job, especially one that's going reasonably well. But as JFK once put it (on the topic of recession, no less), "The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining." So if you're not actively networking, if you're not purposefully upskilling by looking at the tools and characteristics required for other roles in your field or similar jobs you might want to grow into—then these are the things I'd recommend doing now. Our friends over at Money Scoop heard you were coming and published this piece last week with some tips for how to prepare for an economic downturn from a personal finance POV. As the article points out, a recession will always be on the horizon, so even if it turns out we're not currently on the doorstep, it's always smart to be prepared for harder times ahead. Whereas anxiety is at least a formidable seven-letter bingo, worry tends to be relatively futile both on the Scrabble board and in the workplace. Your best bet is to focus your energy on staying positive and executing on the things that are within your control. Share your workplace conundrum with Make It Work here. | | | PETA Last week, 82-year-old actor James Cromwell (Uncle Ewan on Succession) glued his hand to a Starbucks counter in NYC. That it's something Ewan's grandson Greg would do by accident on the show is only coincidental: It was the environmentalist Cromwell's way of protesting the coffee chain's upcharge for plant-based milks. While most people probably aren't concerned about what the human star of Babe: Pig in the City sticks himself to, Cromwell's glue-in highlights a reality for vegans and those with dairy allergies: Things tend to cost a lot more. The lactose intolerance tax In January, Starbucks stores in the UK made all dairy alternatives free. But in the US, Starbucks locations typically charge an additional 70 cents for nondairy options. Thinking broadly about the cost of (essentially) blending oats and water versus the cost of raising a cow to maturity, the pricing may seem odd. And it's not just Starbucks charging a premium, either. Across the industry, the retail price of nondairy, plant-based milk is around twice the price of dairy milk, according to Mintec, which analyzes food commodity costs. So what's keeping those oat milk prices high? A few things: - Plant-based milks have a costlier blending and bottling process, along with higher costs for packaging and marketing.
- There's a higher demand for dairy milk—61% of US households primarily drink it, compared to the 23% that opt for plant-based—so production costs are more spread out and retail prices are cheaper.
But while those factors may help explain why plant-based milks are expensive, they don't fully spell out why dairy milk is so cheap. That has a lot to do with massive government subsidies that the US dairy industry receives each year. In 2015, Big Milk received $22.2 billion in direct and indirect subsidies. A 2018 Canadian study found that 73% of US dairy producers' revenue came from government support. - That support is a lifeline for a beverage with a declining US fan base: Milk consumption rates have been falling around 2.6% a year for the past decade.
- And lower demand for dairy is leading to overproduction: The country currently has a record high 1.4 billion pounds (~900,000 cubic yards) of surplus cheese in storage.
Zoom out: While around 36% of Americans are lactose intolerant (a condition that predominantly affects people of color), the US is still living in its Got Milk? era. Given that the carbon footprint of cow milk is about 3x that of alternatives like oat milk, environmental advocates like Cromwell are hoping that removing cost burdens will lead to more people giving nondairy options a chance.—MK | | | | | | Find a therapist you click with. There are over 20,000 on BetterHelp. You'll get matched with a licensed therapist in under 48 hours, so you can start chatting ASAP. Even book weekly live sessions via phone or video. It's professional, timely, and conveniently designed to help you prioritize your mental health. Get 20% off your first month here. | | | | Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section that can no longer afford a plane ticket to Hawaii. We'll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price.  ZillowToday's listing is the largest custom estate on the Hualalai Resort in Kailua-Kona, a town on the west coast of Hawaii's Big Island. This 11,176 square-foot home overlooks two golf courses, and once you're done reeanacting Caddyshack, you can retreat to your patio to watch every sunset completely unobstructed. Amenities include: - 7 beds, 10 baths
- Your own personal locker room
- Home theater (why go to an AMC with a house like this)
- Virtual golf room for the Metaverse Masters
How much to truly forget Sarah Marshall? | | | - What happened when a Wall Street investment giant moved to Nashville. (Bloomberg)
- Crypto-backed mortgages let HODLers become homeowners. (Morning Brew)
- Robots are writing poetry, and many people can't tell the difference. (The Walrus)
- Who made these circles in the Sahara? (Vox)
- What if Delaware disappeared? 1 million Covid deaths explained in 4 charts. (Politico)
- Google and Meta's new subsea cables mark a tectonic shift in how the internet works, and who controls it. (Rest of World)
- The surprising, overlooked artistry of fruit stickers. (Atlas Obscura)
- Innovative fish farms aim to feed the planet, save jobs, and clean up an industry's dirty reputation. (Scientific American)
- Some notes on "asshat." (Merriam-Webster)
- A Ukrainian soldier explains how he destroyed a Russian bridge. (@kms_d4k)
High tech meets high touch: "Eden Health is far and away the most utilized opt-in benefit that we offer." Employees love personalized care. Employers like Harry's love reduced care costs. See Eden Health in action.* *This is sponsored advertising content. | | | Welcome back to Morning Brew's Meme Competition, where we crown a single memelord every Sunday. Today's winner: Eric in Fredericksburg, VA  This week's challenge: You can find the new template here for next Sunday. Once you're done making your meme, submit it at this link for consideration. | | | | | | | ✢ A Note From Facet Wealth Facet Wealth is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. This is not an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to purchase securities. This is not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. |  | Written by Max Knoblauch, Jamie Wilde, Matty Merritt, Neal Freyman, and Shane Loughnane Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here WANT MORE BREW? Industry news, with a sense of humor → - Emerging Tech Brew: AI, crypto, space, autonomous vehicles, and more
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