| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | | | 
Donald Trump's endorsement put Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance over the top in a crowded Ohio primary, while billionaire Peter Thiel's support enabled Vance to outsource many traditional campaign operations. | Aaron Doster/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | TWO TOP POLITICS READS:
- "A Biden-Trump rematch is increasingly likely. But neither side wants to move first," by Jonathan Lemire and Meridith McGraw: "President JOE BIDEN and former President DONALD TRUMP have both told aides and confidants that they're more likely to run for the White House next cycle — and confident in their chances of winning — if the other runs, too." But neither wants to jump first: "It's a game of political chicken that — as described by more than a half dozen advisers to the two men — has largely frozen the field among Democrats and Republicans alike."
- "Trump reasserts dominance over GOP," by Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers. This quote from Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) jumped out to us: "It's hard to imagine anything that would derail his support. So if he wants to become the nominee in '24, I think he's very likely to achieve that."
THE OPPO BOOK ON VANCE — J.D. VANCE owes his GOP Senate primary victory in Ohio to two people: Trump and PETER THIEL. Trump's endorsement put him over the top in a crowded primary, while Thiel's support — funneled through a super PAC called Protect Ohio Values (aka POV) — enabled Vance to outsource many traditional campaign operations, including polling, advertising, GOTV and, it turns out, opposition research. One big problem with letting a super PAC do everything: Campaign finance law prohibits communication between a candidate's own committee and a super PAC supporting them. But there are ways around that obstacle. As Alex Isenstadt detailed Tuesday in a fascinating tick-tock of the Ohio race, POV set up an unadvertised-but-public Medium account , where it posted a trove of sensitive documents, polling reports, audio and video for Vance to use. Some of the files are boring, such as b-roll footage the Vance camp could include in ads. But the group also posted extensive opposition research reports — on both his primary opponents and Vance himself. Among the documents, as Alex noted, was a lengthy study of Vance's vulnerabilities. It is essentially a "how to" guide for attacking Vance, which anyone — including the campaign of general-election opponent Rep. TIM RYAN (D-Ohio) — could access as of early Thursday morning. They didn't make it easy to find. Some 1,200 words into a 1,700-word Feb. 6 post on POV's Medium account, there's a link suggesting it will take you to some polling. Click it, and it actually takes you to a Dropbox folder with dozens of campaign strategy documents, including PDFs of twoversions of a "JD Vance vulnerability analysis." What's in Vance's oppo book? — On Big Tech: "Vance has positioned himself as a critic of Big Tech and supporter of increased regulation of the industry," the researchers write. But Vance's career, it adds, has been funded by the likes of JEFF BEZOS and ERIC SCHMIDT, among other industry bigwigs. — On his law firm's work for Purdue Pharma and Chinese corporations: Vance has run as an anti-opioid crusader and China hawk — a posture that researchers suggest opens him up to attacks over his tenure with the law firm Sidley Austin. At the same time Vance was employed at the white-shoe firm, its lobbying arm was doing work for Purdue Pharma, which faces billions in penalties over its production of OxyContin. The dossier notes the firm also represented a Chinese real estate company and Alibaba, the Amazon of China. — On his Cincinnati mansion: Vance "might try to claim the mantle of the working class, but he has admitted his lifestyle makes him a 'member of the elite,'" the researchers write. Vance "currently lives in an opulent $1.4 million mansion that sits on six parcels of land and includes a carriage house, pool, and pool house — all of which sits on an 'arboretum-like 3 acres.'" — Questioning where he really lives: In addition to the Cincy mansion, Vance still owns a home in Washington, D.C., that's "valued at nearly $900,000." What's notable about this is that up through 2018, "Vance was still claiming a homestead exemption on his D.C. home, a tax break only available for principal residences. Questions about Vance's residency were raised when he considered running for Senate in 2018, with one unnamed Republican operative saying, 'I don't know what address he claims in Ohio, but he's not living there.'" — Raising doubts about his anti-opioid nonprofit: To the researchers, one of the most worrying bits of oppo they uncovered concerned his nonprofit, Our Ohio Renewal, which he started to combat the opioid crisis. In a section headlined "Mission vs. Reality," the researchers conclude: "Despite its stated goals, Our Ohio Renewal spent more than 95 percent of its 2017 fundraising on staff salaries and overhead, and $0 on charitable activities or grants." They add that the group "appears to have been largely defunct since 2017." There's lots more, and the amount of research is impressive, encompassing court and police records, potentially problematic articles the Yale Law Journal published when Vance was an editor, old Facebook posts about "getting wasted," and even his time as a contributing writer to prominent anti-Trump conservative DAVID FRUM's FrumForum (which was new to us, probably because Vance wrote under the name J.D. Hamel). And as a final note, they flagged one issue that, while helpful in a GOP primary, could be harmful in the general against Ryan: "Vance expressed support for Trump's questioning of the 2020 elections and said people questioning the election would never resort to violence." The Vance campaign did not respond to a request for comment last night, but if they get back to us we'll include it in Playbook PM later today. Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. If you have the Tim Ryan oppo book, please drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Amazon: Only 23% of working Americans have access to paid parental leave. They face an unfair choice: focus on new parenthood or continue to earn a paycheck. Amazon's paid leave policy allows parents to do both. | | | SCOOP: NRSC ARMS CANDIDATES WITH ABORTION POLLING — In the wake of Monday's report that the Supreme Court is preparing to overturn Roe v. Wade, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is arming its candidates with talking points and polling that suggests they can go on the attack. While polls show that overturning Roe is extremely unpopular, the GOP is hoping to pivot the conversation to terrain where they see an advantage over Democrats, including abortion later in pregnancy, the prospect of "taxpayer-funded" abortion and "abortion on demand." (They're also betting that Democrats will overplay their hand.) Here's a sampling of some of the framing they recommend, based on polling of likely voters in battleground states conducted by OnMessage Inc.:
- "Unelected federal judges should not make laws. States should be able to establish their own laws regarding abortion, as they do on everything else." Polling: Fifty-four percent strongly or somewhat agree, while 32% strongly or somewhat disagree.
- "Whether you are pro-life or pro-choice, we can all agree that taxpayer money should not be used to pay for abortions." Polling: Sixty-five percent strongly or somewhat agree, including 66% of independent voters.
- "It's acceptable for states to limit late-term abortions if the state makes it affordable to put babies up for adoption and financially assists the birth mother." Polling: Fifty-nine percent strongly or somewhat agreed, while 26% disagreed.
- "If you knew the following were true, would it make you more or less likely to support current abortion laws: Current abortion policy in the United States allows for abortions to be performed for any reason, up until the very moment of birth." Polling: Fourteen percent said "much more" or "somewhat more" likely, while 57% said "much less" or "somewhat less" likely.
- "Thinking about the 2022 election for Congress, please tell me which of the following candidates you would be more likely to vote for. A Republican candidate who supports banning abortions after 15 weeks with exceptions for the life and physical health of the mother or severe fatal abnormality of the baby. A Democrat candidate who supports unlimited abortion up until the moment of birth." Polling: Fifty-three percent said the GOP candidate — including 54% of Independents — while only 28% said the Democrat.
The step-back: While the GOP hopes to keep the focus on inflation and make the election a referendum on Biden, the prospect of the court overturning Roe throws a wild card into the mix by making abortion rights an inescapable issue on the campaign trail. And the GOP is betting that by shifting the conversation from abortion rights overall into some of the particulars of abortion policy, they can neutralize its potency for Democrts. More below on how the SCOTUS breach is scrambling American politics.
| | | | A message from Amazon: Amazon provides up to 20 weeks of fully paid leave, allowing hourly employees time to bond with their families without missing a paycheck. | | | BIDEN'S THURSDAY: — 10:15 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 4:15 p.m.: The Bidens will host a Cinco de Mayo reception in the Rose Garden with Mexican first lady BEATRIZ GUTIÉRREZ MUELLER DE LÓPEZ OBRADOR. VP KAMALA HARRIS' THURSDAY: — 1:30 p.m.: The vice president and Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH will host a meeting on unions with grassroots worker organizers. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2 p.m. The SENATE is in. Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM will testify before the Energy and Natural Resources Committee at 10 a.m. The HOUSE is out.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  President Joe Biden takes pictures with members of Team USA on the South Lawn at the White House on Wednesday Washington, DC. | Patrick Smith/Getty Images for USOPC | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ABORTION DECISION FALLOUT SCOTUS WATCH — The draft Supreme Court opinion POLITICO published this week highlights how far apart Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS and Justice SAMUEL ALITO, formerly tight allies, have drifted, NYT's Adam Liptak reports. In part, it's a difference of temperament. In part, it's about their sense of urgency. "But the most important difference between Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito is in their titles and what they imply." — Alito, in many ways the man of the moment, pulled out of a judicial conference beginning today where he was scheduled to appear, per Reuters' Nate Raymond. Roberts and Justice CLARENCE THOMAS, meanwhile, are scheduled to appear at a different judicial conference today and Friday, respectively; Raymond writes that it's not clear whether those will go forward. THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — The White House is trying to figure out what it can do to help women access abortion if Roe is struck down, WaPo's Yasmeen Abutaleb and Tyler Pager report. We'll summarize it for you: Not much! The West Wing was panicked at the realization, they report. LATEST ON THE HILL — Democrats are still pressing forward with their doomed plan to try to codify abortion rights into law in the Senate next week, Marianne LeVine and Alice Miranda Ollstein report. Though Dems are trying to soften their legislation to win more votes by removing references to white supremacy and the people other than women who can become pregnant, they aren't changing its substance, and nobody expects them to succeed. A narrower bill backed by pro-abortion-rights GOP Sens. SUSAN COLLINS (Maine) and LISA MURKOWSKI (Alaska) also looks to be going nowhere fast. THE MESSAGING BATTLE — Republicans have remained largely quiet on the draft ruling, both cautious about counting their chickens and disinclined to move the country's political battles to an arena where they're more on the defensive, WaPo's Mike DeBonis reports. "Already there are signs that Republicans, despite their years of activism, are not fully prepared for the thorny political ramifications of a post-Roe political atmosphere." — Among Democrats, the news is already changing midterm plans: "By now, every single woman running for Congress has definitely started on a choice ad," one source tells Axios' Alexi McCammond, Sophia Cai and Alayna Treene. They add that it provides VP KAMALA HARRIS an opening to turn around some stumbles and take the lead on a key issue. … Further reading: "Dems grasp for a foothold on voter anger over abortion," by Sarah Ferris More: "After Supreme Court Opinion Draft Leak Overturning Roe v. Wade, Lawmakers Weigh Next Steps," WSJ … "Donations Are Pouring In for Abortion Rights Organizations," Bloomberg … "Abortion clinics are bracing for protests, harassment and violence if Roe falls," NBC … "Draft abortion opinion puts new spotlight on confirmation hearings," WaPo … "Abortion pills by mail pose challenge for officials in red states," WaPo THE WHITE HOUSE INCOMING? — The White House is considering former Transportation Secretary ANTHONY FOXX to replace departing aide CEDRIC RICHMOND as head of the Office of Public Engagement, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. CONGRESS MORE CAWTHORN DRAMA — "Madison Cawthorn says 'blackmail won't win' after nude video surfaces," by The Washington Examiner's Ryan King: "Cawthorn (R-NC) said he was just 'acting foolish, and joking' with 'a friend' in response to a video he characterized as the latest hit piece meant to destroy his political career. The 26-year-old congressman, who has been ensnared in a string of controversies in recent weeks, released a statement Wednesday appearing to confirm the authenticity of a short clip showing him naked in bed atop another man, getting physical and making noises."
| | | | A message from Amazon:   Amazon's parental leave policy allows parents to be there for the little things. | | | ALL POLITICS ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT — J.R. MAJEWSKI, a PAUL GOSAR-endorsed candidate who went to D.C. on Jan. 6, shocked the political world with an upset House primary victory in an Ohio swing seat. Ally Mutnick writes that it's just one example of the divide rippling through many Republican primaries these days, pitting MAGA "fighters" against the GOP's "governing wing." SCOOP — Sam Stein writes in: BARACK OBAMA will continue his efforts to sound the bullhorn on democratic backsliding with an appearance next month at the fifth Copenhagen Democracy Summit. The 44th president will be the closing speaker at the conference, delivering his remarks on June 10 in addition to hosting a session with Obama Foundation leaders. Obama recently gave a speech at Stanford University on the dangers of disinformation, and sat down with The Atlantic's JEFFREY GOLDBERG to discuss the same topic weeks earlier. According to an aide, the Copenhagen discussion will address "how to strengthen democracy, elevate the role of young leaders in democratic change, and advance values-based approaches to solutions to shared challenges." JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH MORE MCCARTHY AUDIO — Yes, there have been a lot of audio snippets of House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY (Calif.) from Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns' reporting for their new book. But "This Will Not Pass" fatigue doesn't make the recordings any less stunning — and the latest is McCarthy saying on Jan. 8, 2021, that the 25th Amendment process to remove the president from office "takes too long," CNN's Clare Foran and Mel Zanona report . It shows "there was a serious conversation at the highest levels of GOP leadership about the idea — not just idle chatter — even if it was ultimately deemed not a viable option." COMMITTEE LATEST — The Jan. 6 committee met Tuesday with DONALD TRUMP JR., who testified for a few hours of his own volition. More from USA Today POLICY CORNER FED UP — The Fed made it official Wednesday, blasting interest rates a half percentage point higher to tamp down inflation in the central bank's biggest increase since 2000. More from CNBC DISINFORMATION DIGEST — Betsy Woodruff Swan and Daniel Lippman have the inside story this morning on DHS' new Disinformation Governance Board, which has become the target of conservative outrage. The facts are not exactly salacious: The body emerged from a departmental working group that concluded DHS lacked a cohesive mechanism to coordinate its fight against "malicious internet activity" in nearly every arena. "It's Washington, so the working group concluded that there needed to be another new group working on these issues." Thus the disinformation board was born — and the rollout has been anything but smooth. WAR IN UKRAINE ICYMI — AP's Lori Hinnant, Mstyslav Chernov and Vasilisa Stepanenko had new reporting for the history books Wednesday, tallying the number of Ukrainians killed in Russia's bombing of a Mariupol theater at around 600. It's a major piece of investigative journalism that essentially documents what could be one of the worst war crimes of the 21st century. WHAT WILL MAKE PUTIN SEE RED — Among the intelligence the U.S. has shared with Ukraine is information that has assisted their forces in killing several Russian generals, NYT's Julian Barnes, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt report. Specifically, the U.S. "has focused on providing the location and other details about the Russian military's mobile headquarters, which relocate frequently."
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | IN MEMORIAM — "Rob Stein, Who Changed How Politics Is Funded, Dies at 78," by NYT's Ken Vogel: "After President Bush was re-elected and Republicans increased their majorities in Congress in 2004, Mr. Stein launched a coalition of major liberal donors, the Democracy Alliance … The alliance's donors have combined to give more than $2 billion to recommended groups, the organization said. Their donations have helped seed some of the most important institutions on the left." Cher has thoughts about J.D. Vance and Donald Trump. Among the lines newly minted congressional nominee J.R. Majewski rapped in the "Let's Go Brandon" song: "Joe is focused on ice cream while he's crapping his pants // We want our dreams and our freedom, this is our last chance." Slate's "Slow Burn" podcast will return with its new season next month, this time hosted by Susan Matthews and focused on Roe v. Wade. Newsmax's Pennsylvania GOP Senate debate Wednesday night included a question about buying Greenland. SPOTTED: Chris Evans and Ana de Armas shooting their upcoming movie "Ghosted" at Ford's Theater on Wednesday. Plus a Georgetown sighting via the Daily Mail OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a Wednesday night dinner to celebrate the opening of the Vital Voices Global Headquarters for Women's Leadership on 16th Street: Hillary Clinton, Diane Von Furstenburg, Huma Abedin, Donna and Mack McLarty, Melanne Verveer, Norah O'Donnell, Donna Langley, Bozoma Saint John, Elizabeth Wrege, Martine Rothblatt, Chandra Jesse, Alyse Nelson and Linda Roth. Pic TRANSITIONS — Paul Ray is the new director of the Heritage Foundation's Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies. He most recently has been at Patomak Global Partners, and previously was federal "regulations czar" in OMB's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Trump administration. … Terence Huie is now federal government affairs manager at Exelon. Huie most recently was PAC and grassroots manager at the National Grocers Association. … … Grubhub has added Dominic Sanchez as manager of federal affairs and Liza Dee as policy comms manager. Sanchez most recently was legislative assistant for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). Dee previously was a VP at SKDK. … Anthony DeAngelo has been named head of public affairs and strategic comms for the Institute for Strategic Dialogue in the U.S. He previously was senior program manager for democratic governance at the National Democratic Institute, and is an Andy Kim alum. … Belisario Contreras is now senior director of global security and technology strategy at Venable. He is the former manager of the cybersecurity program at the Organization of American States. WEEKEND WEDDING — Elizabeth Bolger, digital director for Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), and Phinehas Bowen, a sailing Instructor at The Sailing Academy, got married Friday at The Gardens at Bethlehem Farm in Rising Sun, Md. The two met at a Bible study in 2019; then Phinehas' mom met Elizabeth and encouraged him to ask her on a date. They began dating in 2021. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sabrina Siddiqui, a White House reporter at the WSJ and a political analyst for CNN, and Ali Jafri, a contractor at the State Department, welcomed Sofia Iman Jafri on Saturday. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: WaPo's Dan Balz … POLITICO's Ryan Heath and Alex Guillén … Mark McKinnon of Showtime's "The Circus" … White House's Dan Hornung … Whitney Robertson of America Rising … Mike Dorning of Bloomberg News … Dustin Walker of Anduril Industries … ABC's Rachel Scott … Sacha Haworth of The Tech Oversight Project … Jenna Valle-Riestra of the Senate Judiciary Dems … Swing Left's Neisha Blandin … MSNBC's Brian Williams … former Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (D-Texas) … Danielle Varallo Stewart … Francesca Barber … Rachel Wein … AP's David Sharp … Amanda Zamora … Star Cypress Partners' Zach Huebschman … Ann Saybolt … Sonum Nerurkar of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights … Christine Pelosi … Morgan Pehme … Lulu Cheng Meservey Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com . Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from Amazon: In America, many parents are faced with an unfair choice: focus on new parenthood or continue to earn a paycheck. More than 75% of working Americans lack access to paid parental leave and face this challenge on a daily basis.
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