Tuesday, May 24, 2022

☕️ Ring ring

Cracks appear in buy now, pay later...
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Morning Brew

Salesforce Connections

Good morning. New York City said goodbye to an icon yesterday, uprooting the last public pay phone in the city from its home on Seventh Ave. and West 50th St. It's headed to the Museum of the City of New York to be part of an exhibit showing what the city was like before computers, where it'll be sandwiched between a Jets AFC East title and a cigarette.

Matty Merritt, Max Knoblauch, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

11,535.27

S&P

3,973.75

Dow

31,880.24

10-Year

2.854%

Bitcoin

$29,387.40

JPMorgan

$124.60

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 10:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Apparently bruised stocks took some "me time" over the weekend, because they started the week with a burst of enthusiasm. A big reason why was a rosier outlook from the country's top bank, JPMorgan. The company raised its target for a profitability metric and CEO Jamie Dimon said that the "storm clouds" over the economy "may dissipate."

RETAIL

Cracks appear in buy now, pay later

A digital shopping cart falls off a computer screen Grant Thomas

The mental gymnastics it takes to justify buying a $400 pair of designer sneakers becomes a mere somersault when it only costs you $100 every paycheck. And no one understood that better than the buy now, pay later (BNPL) startups that skyrocketed in popularity during the pandemic's e-commerce boom.

Now, along with the rest of the tech sector, those companies are watching their rapid gains crumble. BNPL giant Klarna, Europe's largest private tech firm, said yesterday it was laying off 10% of the company's roughly 7,000 employees.

CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski cited the war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, and a likely recession as reasons for the cuts. "While crucial to stay calm in stormy weather, it's also crucial not to turn a blind eye to reality," he said.

Quick refresher: BNPL companies Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay, and a number of other startups offer point-of-sale installment loans for online shoppers. Last year, US consumers spent over $20 billion through these services—just over 2% of the $870 billion they spent shopping online in total. And Klarna, the leader in helping you pay for your ASOS haul, grew its valuation from $11 billion in September 2020 to $46 billion last June.

It did not stay there

Last week, the WSJ reported that Klarna was currently looking to raise money at a valuation closer to $30 billion, a 30% cut from its valuation peak. And Klarna's not the only one getting a shave: Shares of Affirm, the US BNPL giant, have dropped almost 75% this year.

Why the slowdown? For all the reasons Siemiatkowski mentioned, but also because companies made investments assuming that pandemic growth = forever growth. It wasn't. The number of e-commerce transactions has actually declined 1.8% from a year ago, per a Mastercard SpendingPulse report released earlier this month.

Big picture: On top of all that, BNPL companies are dealing with another threat: regulation. Numerous US and UK agencies have launched investigations into the companies' potentially predatory lending practices, accusing them of irresponsibly allowing young consumers to rack up debt.—MM

        

TOGETHER WITH SALESFORCE CONNECTIONS

The innovators are gathering. You coming?

Salesforce Connections

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Grab your last-minute registration for the IRL experience—featuring hands-on training, 125+ sessions, and priceless networking opportunities—or tune into the festivities virtually on Salesforce+.

Get 20% off the in-person experience with promo code C22MOBCOMP, right over here.

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Snap CEO Evan Spiegel Snap CEO Evan Spiegel. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Snap sends a warning. Shares tanked 30% in extended trading after the social media company told Wall Street that it would not meet revenue and profit targets this quarter because of the potential r*******n. "The macro environment has deteriorated further and faster than we anticipated," Snap said. Other social media stocks fell on the news.

Starbucks joins the Russian exodus. The coffee chain will fully exit the Russian market several days after McDonald's sold its Russian business. Russia is not a significant market for Starbucks, which derives less than 1% of its revenue from its 130 locations in the country. The first Russian Starbucks opened in a Moscow-area shopping mall in 2007.

Unionization comes to video games. In a 19–3 vote, quality assurance testers for the Activision Blizzard subsidiary Raven Software won their bid for a union on Monday—a first for a major North American video game publisher. The National Labor Relations Board accused Call of Duty-maker Activision (currently finalizing a $69 billion deal to be acquired by Microsoft) of illegally threatening employees with its strict social media policy.

GEOPOLITICS

Biden goes full 'Whose Line Is It Anyway?' on Taiwan

President Biden speaks in Tokyo David Mareuil/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Everyone needs a little more geopolitical uncertainty in their lives. During his first trip to Asia while in office, President Biden was asked if the US would defend Taiwan if, say, it were attacked by China. "Yes," Biden answered, later adding, "That's the commitment we made."

Those comments were like Russell Westbrook ditching the set play to chuck up a three. For decades, the US had pursued a policy of "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan, which means it's been intentionally vague on what it would do if China were to attack.

After Biden ripped up the playbook, the White House went scrambling to tape it back together, reiterating that the US' policy on Taiwan hadn't changed, despite what Biden said. But it's important to note that this is the second time in months that Biden has committed to military intervention in Taiwan—so maybe it's not a gaffe.

Why Taiwan is such a sensitive topic: Geopolitical experts say a confrontation between the US and China over Taiwan currently presents one of the top risks of war around the world. China considers Taiwan—a self-governing island off its coast—a breakaway province that should be brought under Chinese control, and China has recently ramped up military activity in the region. In light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the focus has been on what the US and other allies would do if China took its Taiwanese aggression to the next level.—NF

        

PODCASTS

Conan O'Brien's about to be flooded with friends

Conan O'Brien speaks in an interview Cindy Ord/Getty Images for SiriusXM

Comedy tall-guy Conan O'Brien has sold his digital media company, Team Coco, to SiriusXM in a heavyweight deal valued around $150 million. The acquisition is further proof that companies see big money in long conversations.

Under the deal, Conan O'Brien Needs a Friend, Team Coco's flagship podcast, will make the leap to SiriusXM's pod network along with Team Coco's network of 10 podcasts including Rob Lowe's Parks and Recollection and Nicole Byer's Why Won't You Date Me? O'Brien himself signed a five-year talent agreement and will produce a comedy channel for the satellite radio company. Team Coco's staff of about 50 employees will join Sirius.

  • Conan O'Brien Needs a Friend ranked 26th among all podcasts by weekly listeners in Q1.

"When I started in television my ultimate goal was to work my way up to radio," O'Brien said in a statement.

Zoom out: The nine-figure acquisition—Sirius's largest in the podcaster space—comes two years after Spotify's reported $200 million deal with Joe Rogan, although Conan's show features fewer convos about ice baths and DMT. The podcast ad market topped $1.4 billion in revenue in 2021 and is projected to exceed $4 billion by 2024.—MK

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Amber Heard Steve Helber/Getty Images

Stat: In the Johnny Depp–Amber Heard libel trial, the public has clearly picked a side. The hashtag #IStandWithAmberHeard has earned about 8.2 million views, compared to 15 billion views for #JusticeForJohnnyDepp. Closing arguments are expected to start on Friday.

Quote: "Who cares if Miami is six meters underwater in 100 years?"

Not Stuart Kirk. HSBC's head of responsible investing gave a presentation called, "Why investors need not worry about climate risk" at a conference last week, where he accused lawmakers and central bankers of hyping up climate change as an existential crisis that (Kirk believes) it is not. HSBC's execs said that Kirk's statements did not align with HSBC's strategy.

Read: A profile of the $8 billion startup that's trying to revolutionize the freight industry. (The Generalist)

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Airbnb will reportedly shut down all of its mainland China listings by the summer.
  • Pfizer and BioNTech said that three doses of their Covid vaccine offer strong protection for kids younger than five, and they'll submit the data to health regulators this week. No vaccines are authorized yet for this age group.
  • A 21-year-old Russian soldier was sentenced to life in prison for shooting and killing an unarmed Ukrainian civilian. It was the first war crimes trial since Russia's invasion.
  • Washington, DC, sued Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg over his role in the Cambridge Analytica data breach.
  • Chipmaking giant Broadcom is in talks to acquire VMware in what would be among the biggest tech deals ever (nearly $60 billion, potentially). It could be announced as soon as Thursday, per CNBC.

TOGETHER WITH WORKIVA

Workiva

What do stakeholders care about? We're glad you asked, because Workiva has just the thing to help you find the answer. Their new *interactive* guide helps you assess which environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues matter most to your stakeholders. Get your free copy here.

BREW'S BETS

Occlusion Grotesque: Nope, not a heavy metal band—it's an experimental font that's carved into the bark of a tree to show what it's really like to design on nature's terms.

Vintage Steve Martin: Let us know if you experience any of these side effects.

Two words: Chocolate giraffe.

Saving with subscriptions: While subscription models offer convenience and discounts to consumers, they can pose unique challenges to brands that offer them. Retail pros at Nuuly and Nutrafol shared the keys to subscription success with us. Check it out.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew mini: Time flies when you're trying to figure out a five-letter word for "deadly snake." Huge shoutout to the superstar Mary Tobler on her one-year anniversary creating puzzles for the Brew. Here's the timely puzzle she came up with for today.

Bro trivia

Today is National Brother's Day, so after you give your bro a noogie and blame him for everything when your parents get mad, try this trivia game. We'll give you the name of two actors who play brothers in a movie, and you have to name the movie.

  1. Eric Bana and Orlando Bloom
  2. Robert De Niro and Joe Pesci
  3. Tom Cruise and Dustin Hoffman
  4. Mel Gibson and Joaquin Phoenix
  5. Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale

FROM THE CREW

A sketch show about the American workplace

Promo for Dan Toomey sketch show

Being back in the office can be difficult—especially if you haven't spent much time around other people in the past few years. And for CEOs who already struggle to connect with their employees, adjusting can be particularly hard. This is Good Work with Dan Toomey, a sketch show where Morning Brew documents the modern American workplace.

Watch it here

Then...check out some podcast episodes from the Brew studio:

1-up your career with Nintendo's retired president & COO Reggie Fils-Aimé | Business Casual

Leaning into your identity to advance your career | Business Casual

ANSWER

  1. Troy
  2. Raging Bull
  3. Rain Man
  4. Signs
  5. The Fighter (they're half-brothers…still counts)
         

Written by Matty Merritt, Neal Freyman, and Max Knoblauch

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