Saturday, May 21, 2022

☕️ Heat wave

The stock market rout is historic...
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Morning Brew

The Ascent

Good morning. Memorial Day Weekend is almost here, which means it's once again time to decide which one of your friends you're close enough with to share a bed at the Airbnb.

With vacation on the mind, next Saturday we're planning to run a special travel-themed newsletter that's full of trends, analysis, and recs on where to travel this summer and how best to do it.

Speaking of recs, there are 4.1 million people reading this newsletter and just 4.1 of us, so we thought it would be useful to ask you, the readers, for travel ideas. Peep the Brew's Bets section over the coming days (including today) for ways to contribute to the travel newsletter.

Neal Freyman, Jamie Wilde, Matty Merritt

MARKETS

Nasdaq

11,354.62

S&P

3,901.36

Dow

31,261.90

10-Year

2.785%

Bitcoin

$29,234.88

Tesla

$663.90

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 7:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The S&P dipped in and out of bear market territory (down 20% from a recent peak) to close a bit higher, but there's no sugarcoating it: It was a brutal week all around for stocks. Tesla shares continued their freefall, dropping ~35% since the announcement that Elon Musk was buying Twitter. That may imperil Musk's ability to complete the deal, given that he's taken out meaty loans tied to the value of Tesla's stock.

MARKETS

Breaking: Stocks don't always go up

Elevator that only has a working down arrow Francis Scialabba

The stock market is in the midst of a historic rout, and not even a new Harry Styles album can save it.

Fact is, the US' three major equity indexes are experiencing their worst stretch of losses in decades.

  • The Dow posted its eighth straight weekly loss, which is its longest weekly losing streak since 1923.
  • The S&P has lost ground for seven straight weeks, its longest losing streak since 2001.
  • The Nasdaq has dropped more from its peak last November than when the world shut down in spring 2020. We repeat: The literal world shut down and the Nasdaq is doing worse now.

What's going on? Simply put, investors are betting that the US economy is barreling toward a recession. Every recession since 1968 has prompted a bear market like the one we're currently in, per CFRA Research.

All the bear necessities are cropping up: Inflation is ripping at 8.3%, forcing the Fed to slam the brakes on the economy. The war in Ukraine and Covid lockdowns in China are adding to the concerns. And this week, any optimism was dashed when ol' reliables Target and Walmart posted lousy results, sending their stocks tumbling the most since the market crash of 1987.

Get used to seeing red: Bear markets aren't like your pal Tyler in Delta Chi—they don't boot and rally. In the 14 bear markets since 1945, stocks have lost an average of 36% over 289 days, according to Hartford Funds.

Still, some say fears of a recession are overblown. Deutsche Bank sees "few if any signs of the typical hallmarks of a recession" outside of the stock market rout. The employment picture remains strong, with the US economy having added more than 400,000 jobs for 12 straight months. And even the Target and Walmart disasters point more to operational blunders and rapidly shifting consumer trends rather than a major pullback in shopping.

Bottom line: While past downturns sent the Fed rushing into the phone booth to play superhero, don't expect it to save the day this time around. In fact, a big stock market sell-off is exactly what the Fed wants to see in order to slow economic activity, and in turn, bring inflation back to normal.—NF

        

TOGETHER WITH THE ASCENT

It's perk after perk, people!

The Ascent

This credit card has so many rock-solid perks, it should be carved outta marble. (It's probably not because that'd be super impractical, but could you imagine?)

Here's the breakdown.

  • 0% interest until 2023 on purchases and balance transfers
  • up to 5% cash back in rotating categories you'll actually use
  • no annual fee

Those are the benefits of a real card that exists right now. And it was just rated a top cash-back card by the experts at The Ascent, for obvious reasons.

So, interested in saving a lotta dough on fees and earning some serious cash back? Learn more about applying here.

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Kramer saying Seinfeld/NBC via Giphy

Heat wave cometh. Record-setting heat is set to sizzle the Ohio Valley and the East Coast this weekend, bringing scorching temps of about 20 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, a potentially historic snowstorm is smacking the Rockies just days after temperatures approached 90 degrees in Denver. On top of all that, New Mexico will be experiencing "critical" fire weather conditions.

A baffling outbreak of pediatric hepatitis. Public health officials don't know why over 400 children worldwide have come down with severe cases of liver inflammation (clinically known as hepatitis) in recent months. In the US, the CDC is investigating 180 cases, which resulted in 15 liver transplants and six deaths. A virus called adenovirus 41 is being investigated as a possible cause, but there's been no determination yet.

NIL is causing drama in college football. And it's only May. It all started Wednesday when Alabama coach Nick Saban said that Texas A&M's coach Jimbo Fisher "bought every player on their team" by making name, image, and likeness (NIL) deals. Fisher fired back Thursday, denying that the team "bought" anyone and calling Saban a "narcissist." Saban later said he was wrong to call out Fisher but reiterated that NIL has gotten "completely out of control."

FOOD & BEV

Nearly Headless Nick, but make it a Coke bottle

A nearly capless Coke bottle Coca-Cola

Coca-Cola's newest bottles are nearly capless—as in when you remove the cap, it stays just barely attached to the security ring. The redesign is intended to ensure that Brits (it's only rolling out in the UK for now) recycle the whole bottle, not just its body.

All the major UK Coca-Cola brands—Coke, Diet Coke, Coke Zero Sugar, Fanta, Sprite, Dr Pepper, and whatever Lilt is—will have decapitation-resistant plastic bottles by early 2024, and some as soon as this week.

The move isn't purely so Coca-Cola can uphold the three R's: It also helps the company get ahead of regulations. Over in the EU, for instance, many companies will be required to attach their plastic caps by the end of 2024.

  • Globally, Coca-Cola plans to reconfigure its cans and bottles to be made out of 50% recycled materials by 2030 and its packaging to be 100% recyclable by 2025.

However…some critics are calling Coca-Cola's announcement an example of "greenwashing" that glosses over the company's contribution to plastic waste. Less than 30% of plastic bottles in the US are recycled, while less than half of the UK's land in the blue bin. Meanwhile, Norway boasts a 97% rate of recycling plastic bottles and has widely used reuse programs.—JW

        

RETAIL

Old Navy's inclusive push stumbled

Bodequality ad on Old Navy store Old Navy

Last summer, Old Navy launched an ambitious plan to become the most size-inclusive brand in the strip mall. But after filling the sales floor with larger sizes, the company's sales fell faster than a silky shirt off one of their plastic hangers as customers got frustrated trying to find middle sizes, the WSJ reports.

The backstory: Many retailers, including Victoria's Secret and Target, have embraced more inclusive messaging and merchandise, but Old Navy outran everyone by rolling out all clothing styles in sizes 0–30 and XS–4X. The CEO of Gap Inc., Old Navy's parent company, called it the "largest integrated launch" in Old Navy's history and an "important growth driver for…years to come."

But Old Navy's inclusive push apparently didn't include any regard for sales. Despite the initiative doubling the number of extended-size customers in the company's database, by spring stores were scrambling to get rid of surplus merchandise—a majority of which was on opposite ends of the size range, per the WSJ. And last month, the company announced CEO Nancy Green was stepping down, saying it was time to tap someone outside of the company to bring the brand back to life.

Zoom out: Old Navy's misstep is more bad news for its parent, Gap. The brand accounted for 54% of Gap's total sales in 2021, and Gap's stock is already down nearly 67% in the last year.—MM

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR Uhlenhaut Coupé RM Sothebys

Stat: A Mercedes-Benz race car just became the most expensive car ever sold. The  Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR Uhlenhaut Coupe, one of two of its kind built in 1955, went for about $143 million at auction earlier this month, obliterating the previous record by more than $95 million. It could cost just as much to fill it up with gas.

Quote: "For the most part, I think I'm OK."

Tennis star Naomi Osaka told reporters she's in good spirits ahead of her return to the French Open, the tournament from which she abruptly withdrew last year to take a mental health break. Tennis hits the clay on Sunday—and keep your eye on Spanish teenager Carlos Alcaraz, whose remarkable success this year has been the talk of the sport.

Read: An emotional piece about the 13 final text messages between people who died of Covid and their loved ones. (New York Times)

TOGETHER WITH BABBEL

Babbel

Flex your new language skills this summer. Travel plans are back on, and with daily practice using Babbel, you could be speaking a new language in just three weeks. Babbel teaches 10-minute lessons in whatever format suits you—videos, live virtual classes, games, you name it. Take 60% off your subscription here.

CARTOON

Saturday sketch

A military leader on the horse asking for questions Max Knoblauch

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • SNL stars Pete Davidson, Aidy Bryant, Kate McKinnon, and Kyle Mooney are all expected to leave the show after the season finale tonight, per Variety.
  • The WHO's boss in Europe is concerned that the monkeypox outbreak, which has already been found in several European countries, could accelerate in the summer months.
  • A judge blocked the Biden administration's plan to lift Covid restrictions on asylum-seeking migrants at the southern border, which was set to be implemented next week.
  • Russia claims to have taken full control of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which would be its biggest victory yet in the war.
  • The "Wagatha Christie" case involving the wives of two popular English soccer players has taken over the British tabloids.

BREW'S BETS

Share your favorite weekend getaways: Some of the most memorable summer trips are just a short drive away. Have a favorite weekend getaway from your city? A small, artsy town? A brief hike to a serene lake? Share it here and we'll compile a list for our upcoming summer travel newsletter.

Weekend conversation starters:

GAMES

Brew crossword

Brew Crossword promo image

If going outside in 95-degree weather isn't your jam, stay on your couch and play today's crossword.

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Written by Neal Freyman, Jamie Wilde, and Matty Merritt

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