🤫Biden's next risk

Plus: President's inflation offensive | Sunday, May 08, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Facebook   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team · May 08, 2022 💐💐 Welcome back to Sneak. Happy Mother's Day to all the Moms, new Moms and would-be Moms. We appreciate all of you! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,185 words ... 4.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: Scoop - Biden's next risk Kristina Kvien (center), chargé d'affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, walks through Lviv, Ukraine, last week. She also visited Kyiv today. Photo: Yuriy Dyachyshyn/AFP via Getty Images   The Biden administration is accelerating plans to reopen the U.S. embassy in Kyiv, a senior State Department official told Axios, part of an increasingly bold and potentially risky approach to the Russia-Ukraine war. Why it matters: Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told his Ukrainian counterpart that this progress — marked by Kyiv Embassy charge d'affaires Kristina Kvien's visit today to commemorate V-E Day — is "a testament to Ukraine's success [and] Moscow's failure" in the early phase of Vladimir Putin's war, the senior official told Axios' Jonathan Swan and Zachary Basu. It's the culmination of a behind-the-scenes effort led by Blinken to have U.S. diplomats return to Kyiv at the earliest possible date after their evacuation in the weeks before Russia's invasion on Feb. 24. "The secretary relayed to his senior team and to [Ukrainian] Foreign Minister [Dmytro] Kuleba that our return to Kyiv is a testament to Ukraine's success, Moscow's failure and our effective and enduring partnership with the government and people of a sovereign, democratic and free Ukraine," said the senior official. Between the lines: These bold statements from the Biden administration are not without risk. U.S. officials are keenly aware President Putin has his pride and identity at stake with his invasion of Ukraine. A humiliating defeat is not an option for him. Senior Biden officials want to avoid a situation in which Putin feels like his own survival, or the survival of his regime, is threatened. In that "existential" scenario, Putin may resort to the most extreme measures, including the use of nuclear weapons, according to sources familiar with the sensitive discussions inside the administration. The recent leaks of extremely sensitive information from the Biden administration have seriously concerned senior officials including, reportedly, the president himself. President Biden was reportedly "livid" about recent stories reporting that U.S. targeting intelligence has helped Ukraine kill Russian generals, according to the New York Times' Thomas Friedman. And after an NBC News report in which anonymous U.S. officials took credit for helping sink the Moskva, Russia's flagship warship, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby slammed the leaks as "manifestly unhelpful." Keep reading.     2. First look: President's inflation offensive President Biden speaks last week about bolstering domestic manufacturing to reduce inflation during a visit to Hamilton, Ohio. Photo: Jon Cherry/Getty Images   The president is preparing a major speech Tuesday to address inflation, and will contrast his plans to lower costs for American families with those offered by congressional Republicans, an administration official told Axios' Hans Nichols. Why it matters: For a president who once insisted inflation was "transitory," Biden is now talking about rising prices at nearly every opportunity. The focus comes as Americans buckle under gas exceeding $6 per gallon in some states, and grocery price increases each visit to the store. At the White House on Tuesday, Biden will focus on GOP plans, like those from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), which Democrats say will raise taxes on some 75 million Americans, and could sunset entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Despite an economy that created 428,000 new jobs last month, officials know inflation is diluting Americans' purchasing power — and can crush Democrats at the polls in the midterm elections. Biden administration officials have been debating whether to lower some of former President Trump's tariffs against China as one step toward slowing inflation, Axios has reported. Throughout April, Biden hit rising prices in a speech nearly every week. He did so again last week during a visit to Ohio, a key Rust Belt electoral state. Driving the news: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April's Consumer Price Index at 8:30am Wednesday. It's become one of the most eagerly awaited statistics in Washington. Economists estimate the monthly headline rate will come in 0.2%, meaning annual inflation will be 8.1%, according to FactSet. That would mark a decline from March's 8.5% annual rate, which was the highest annual reading since 1981, and signal inflation may be receding. Keep reading.     3. GOP candidates embrace strict anti-abortion views Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   A series of Republican candidates running in crucial Senate battlegrounds hold strict anti-abortion views — including opposing the procedure even in cases of rape and incest. Why it matters: The views of these GOP frontrunners go far beyond what Republicans have traditionally embraced: exceptions for rape, incest and the life of a mother. If elected, these candidates — from J.D. Vance in Ohio to Herschel Walker in Georgia — would push the party further right, writes Axios' Alayna Treene. Between the lines: Even former President Trump, whose anti-abortion rights bonafides were a key component of his 2016 and 2020 platforms, favored exceptions to abortion bans. In 2019, he tweeted: "As most people know, and for those who would like to know, I am strongly Pro-Life, with the three exceptions — Rape, Incest and protecting the Life of the mother — the same position taken by Ronald Reagan." The leaked draft signaling the Supreme Court's intent to overturn Roe v. Wade has thrust abortion into the forefront of the midterm elections. The current candidates' views are in line with a series of abortion bans recently enacted at the state level in places like Ohio, Arizona, Oklahoma, Florida and Texas. The big picture: The state laws and positions held by the Senate candidates have spurred new questions about whether Republicans — if they regain the majority in the House or Senate — will try to pass a federal abortion ban. Such a measure wouldn't be signed into law while President Biden is in office but would tee up future legislation for when a Republican is back in the White House. Keep reading.     A message from Facebook Facebook has invested $16 billion to keep you safe on our platform     Facebook invested $16B in safety and security over 6 years. The impact? Quadrupled safety and security teams. Developed industry-leading AI that detects harmful content and reacts as it evolves. Addressed millions of harmful posts and removed 1.7B fake accounts in the last few months. Learn what's next.     4. Worthy of your time Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky address reporters during a news conference in Kyiv, during Trudeau's unannounced visit to Ukraine. Photo: Sergei Supinsky/Oleksandr Markushyn Telegram Cha/AFP via Getty Images   🏛️ The House returns to session on Tuesday with plans to vote on legislation further sanctioning Russia and Belarus and supporting Ukraine, as well as a resolution to recognize congressional workers' right to unionize, Axios' Andrew Solender reports in this evening's Sneak roundup. 📄 The Senate will vote on a bill to codify Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court decision legalizing abortion, which the court is poised to overturn. The bill is all but certain to fail to overcome the chamber's 60-vote filibuster threshold. 🗣️ Vice President Kamala Harris said in a commencement address at Tennessee State University on Saturday that "the world you graduate into is unsettled. It is a world where long-established principles now rest on shaky ground," citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine. ❌ Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R), when asked during a CNN "State of the Union" interview today whether his state plans to try to ban birth control methods like IUDs or Plan B, replied, "That is not what we are focused on at this time." 📊 A CNN poll found 57% of Americans say it's not the time to end Title 42, a pandemic-era border restriction allowing the U.S. to turn back migrants. The Biden administration had planned to do so this month before a federal judge temporarily blocked it.     5. Pic du jour Photo: Susan Walsh/Pool/AFP via Getty Images   First lady Jill Biden and Olena Zelenska (standing, right), the wife of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, joined a group of children in Uzhhorod, Ukraine, as they made tissue-paper bears to give as Mother's Day gifts. Biden made the unannounced stop after visiting nearby Slovakia. She wore a wrist corsage sent to her by her husband. A White House pool report said it's a tradition in the Biden family.     A message from Facebook We build tools that give you control and help keep you safe     Real connection can only happen on safe platforms. So we build tools to protect our communities. Privacy Checkup, where you can manage your privacy settings and control who sees what you share. Industry-leading AI that detects and reacts to harmful content faster than ever. Learn about our efforts.   🚀 Thanks for starting your week with us! Please tell your family, friends and colleagues they can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. Like this email style and format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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