| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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History is not on President Joe Biden's side when it comes to the midterms. In fact, voters may have already made up their minds. | Nicolas Datiche/Pool Photo via AP | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | OVERNIGHT — "Biden Says U.S. Military Would Defend Taiwan if China Invaded," by NYT's Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Peter Baker THE WEEK — Another jam-packed week in politics: In the House, we'll be watching whether the recent federal court decision blocking the lifting of Title 42 has any impact on the Dems' effort to pass a Covid relief bill. … On Tuesday, there are primaries in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia, and runoffs in Texas. On the Dem side, the big story will be the progressive vs. moderate showdown of the HENRY CUELLAR and JESSICA CISNEROS runoff in South Texas. On the GOP side, all eyes will be on Georgia, where DAVID PERDUE, backed by DONALD TRUMP, is expected to lose his primary against Gov. BRIAN KEMP. … Also on Tuesday: KELLYANNE CONWAY's "Here's the Deal: A Memoir" will be released (more on that below) … In the Senate, Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER will try to set up a vote on the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act for Thursday. … A week from today, on Memorial Day, Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Casper, Wyo., for HARRIET HAGEMAN as she takes on Rep. LIZ CHENEY. IS IT ALREADY OVER FOR BIDEN AND THE DEMS? — A president's first midterm election is both an enormous story and completely anticlimactic. It's major news because there will likely be a dramatic shift away from the president's party. It's anticlimactic because it's one of the most predictable events in American politics. Can anything change the predicted trajectory for Democrats? Some theories have come and gone. President JOE BIDEN's leadership rallying Europe against Russia's aggression in Ukraine has had no effect on his approval. The news that the Supreme Court is on the cusp of overturning Roe v. Wade has not yet helped him either. Democrats are still clinging to a few potential developments that they hope could turn things around: (1) an actual decision from the Supreme Court that makes the reality of state abortion bans more acutely felt; (2) passage of a new version of Build Back Better; (3) the upcoming Jan. 6 committee hearings that highlight the issue of Trump and the GOP's efforts to overtun the 2020 elections; and, at least on the Senate side, (4) the emergence of unelectable Republican nominees in key states. But history is not on Biden's side. In fact, voters may have already made up their minds. That, at least, is the argument from DOUG SOSNIK in his latest memo that we are happy to share first with the Playbook audience. You can read the full memo here Doug looks at the Biden presidency so far and concludes that the midterms were essentially lost during the period from July to November last year. Nothing since then has changed Biden's standing. And Doug thinks there's only one thing that possibly could: "reframing the terms of debate for the midterm elections around the pending decision by the Supreme Court on Roe." A look back at how it fell apart for Biden: — January to June: The Honeymoon. It seemed like a competent new president was taming the pandemic and bringing back a robust economy. "[M]ore than half the country approved of his performance as president," Sosnik writes. "His levels of support during that period were much higher than Trump ever attained in his four years in office." — July: The Independence Day Illusion. Sosnik sees July Fourth as a key moment in the public's turn against Biden. "The seeds of this downward trend were planted when the Biden Administration hosted a July 4th event on the south lawn of the White House, creating the false impression that the Covid-19 battle had been won," he writes. "Although the president warned that the pandemic was not yet over, the message that broke through was the president's claim that [America] was 'closer than ever to declaring our independence' from the deadly virus." — August: The Afghanistan Debacle. In Sosnik's analysis, this had two major effects: (1) Biden's reputation for competence was severely damaged, and (2) his honeymoon with the press ended. — September to November: Inflation, Virginia and the death of BBB. By the fall, things started to spiral out of control for Biden, when the real-world negative economic consequences of inflation started to be felt by voters at the same time that Biden was rejected by both voters in Virginia and members of his own party in the Senate. "The cumulative impact of these events transformed the increasing optimism in the country last summer into a profound sense of pessimism by November," Sosnik writes. "For the past six months, over 70% of the public thinks that the country is headed in the wrong direction. This sense of pessimism in the country has dragged Biden's job approval down to 39%." SOSNIK'S WARNING: The window for Biden to reverse this damage is about to close. "In the last four midterm elections, by June the public had made up its mind about the leadership in Washington and how they were going to vote in November," he writes. "According to Gallup, Trump's 39% job approval in early February 2018, [BARACK] OBAMA's 41% approval in June 2014 and 45% approval in June 2010, and [GEORGE W.] BUSH's 38% approval in March 2006 all matched their job approval on Election Day." Each of those presidents "suffered significant defeats and lost control of at least one branch of Congress." "That is why the stakes are so high as we enter this final period critical for the Democrats to seize the pending Court decision on Roe vs Wade as a way to alter the trajectory of the election," Sosnik concludes. "If they are not successful in reframing the terms of debate for the midterm elections around the pending decision by the Supreme Court on Roe, we will look back at Biden and the Democrats' failures last summer and early fall as the reasons for their electoral defeats this November."
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Learn more about our work ahead. | | | Good Monday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Ryan is in Wyoming this week checking out the Hageman-Cheney race. Drop us a line with your best Wyoming politics tips and your favorite places to hike in the Wind River Range: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. JUST POSTED — "Pence, Tiptoeing Away From Trump, Lays Groundwork for '24 Run," by NYT's Jonathan Martin. Today, MIKE PENCE will campaign in Georgia for Gov. BRIAN KEMP — one of Trump's top targets for defeat. How is that landing in Trump World? Here's a statement from Trump spokesperson TAYLOR BUDOWICH: "Mike Pence was set to lose a governor's race in 2016 before he was plucked up and his political career was salvaged," said Budowich. "Now, desperate to chase his lost relevance , Pence is parachuting into races, hoping someone is paying attention. The reality is, President Trump is already 82-3 with his endorsements, and there's nothing stopping him from saving America in 2022 and beyond." (ICYMI: On Friday, we looked at Trump's actual win-loss record with endorsements in competitive races.) HERE COMES KELLYANNE — In "Here's the Deal," Conway offers no pan of Trump like other former administration officials have, reports WaPo's Ashley Parker. Instead, she attacks "Trump Derangement Syndrome," providing "what she views as a candid assessment of some of her colleagues in the White House and the media — both positive and negative — but never skewering Trump himself." She does have it out for JARED KUSHNER, ANTHONY FAUCI and others. Conway also writes about being a sexual assault survivor, and her assessment of Trump "as a feminist who repeatedly supported and promoted her." — Also notable: She says her marriage to GEORGE CONWAY may not survive, and that IVANKA TRUMP gave her the names of possible couples therapists.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY — The president is in Tokyo, where he's already met with Emperor NARUHITO, had a bilateral meeting and press conference with PM KISHIDA FUMIO, met with families of Japanese people abducted by Korea decades ago and launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. He's now having dinner with Kishida at Kochūan. VP KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY — The VP will visit Children's National Hospital at 2:45 p.m. to talk about mental health and wellness policies. THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  A shipment of enough infant formula for a half-million bottles arrives from Europe in Indiana on Sunday. The White House said a second shipment will make its way to Pennsylvania later this week. | Jon Cherry/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | THE WHITE HOUSE POTUS ABROAD — As Biden seeks to craft an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the trade pact will not include Taiwan, per national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN. "Inclusion of the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own, would have irked Beijing," report AP's Aamer Madhani and Josh Boak. More from the pair on who *will* be included in today's assessment COMFORTING HEADLINE — "'Everybody Should Be Concerned' About Monkeypox, Biden Warns," by NYT's Russell Goldman THE ECONOMY JUST IN TIME FOR SUMMER TRAVEL — Gas prices in the U.S. leaped 33 cents in the last two weeks to a whopping average of $4.71 a gallon. That's $1.61 higher than a year ago. More from the AP ABORTION FALLOUT LOCAL DEMS VS. NATIONAL DEMS — Across the states, Democrats and abortion rights supporters who expect to be on the front lines if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade are frustrated with national Dems, Megan Messerly and Alice Miranda Ollstein report this morning . "Democratic inaction at the federal level could complicate the party's efforts to run this fall as champions of reproductive rights, and the internal strife comes at a moment when party strategists are hoping to gin up enthusiasm for congressional candidates." AD BLITZ IN PENNSYLVANIA — Opponents of DOUG MASTRIANO are launching a $6 million ad campaign across multiple platforms attacking him in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race over his calls for a full abortion ban with no exceptions, Hailey Fuchs reports. "The campaign is a massive sum for the starting gate of the most high-profiled gubernatorial races in the country. And it's the latest indication that Democrats nationwide believe a potential Supreme Court decision overturning the landmark case Roe v. Wade will be a boon for turnout in November." THE CUELLAR QUESTION — House Dems may be fighting hard for abortion rights, but few of them are willing to oppose anti-abortion Rep. Cuellar (D-Texas) in his primary runoff, Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris report . Many are loath to back a challenge to an incumbent, while acknowledging that Cuellar is not the impediment to the passage of abortion rights — and worrying that progressive Cisneros might lose the seat in November. THE POST-ROE WORLD — If Republican states impose strict abortion bans, some local and statewide officials are vowing they won't enforce criminal penalties for those who break the law, WSJ's Laura Kusisto reports . "Prosecutors say that even if they promise not to enforce abortion laws in their states, that may not give providers enough assurance to continue operating." WHAT COMES NEXT — "A Conservative Lawyer's New Target After Abortion: Affirmative Action," by NYT's Adam Liptak WAR IN UKRAINE TROOPS TO UKRAINE? — U.S. officials are considering presenting Biden with a plan to deploy dozens of special forces troops to "guard" the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, WSJ's Gordon Lubold, Courtney McBride and Warren Strobel scoop . Though it would be a limited mission focused on the embassy, such a decision "would mark an escalation from Mr. Biden's initial pledge that no American troops will be sent into the country."
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | ALL POLITICS REALITY CHECK — The Kemp-vs.-Perdue GOP primary has occupied a lot of political attention in Georgia. But after Tuesday, the focus will likely turn to Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK's and STACEY ABRAMS' attempts to win as Democrats in a swing state in a difficult year. "[T]he growing fear for Democrats is that even the strongest candidates and recruits can outrun President Biden's wheezing approval ratings by only so much," report NYT's Shane Goldmacher and Katie Glueck , "and are at risk of getting washed away in a developing red wave." — Related read: "Stacey Abrams aims to recapture energy of first campaign," by AP's Jeff Amy TRUMP CARDS MUCK READ — In the waning months of the Trump administration, Kushner and Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN traveled through the Middle East to promote a U.S. program for the Abraham Fund — then quickly returned to many of those same places and people to raise money for their post-administration ventures, NYT's Kate Kelly and David Kirkpatrick report . Beyond just Saudi Arabia, "an examination of the two men's travels toward the end of the Trump presidency raises other questions about whether they sought to exploit official relationships with foreign leaders for private business interests." ELITE STRIKE FORCE TEAM — CNN's Jeremy Herb and Dianne Gallagher dig up the emails that reveal how CLETA MITCHELL, a pro-Trump attorney who tried to help overturn the 2020 election, ended up appointed to the Election Assistance Commission advisory board. The backstory "underscores how a core faction of Republicans has focused on pushing unsupported claims of widespread voter fraud even before Trump convinced much of the Republican Party to buy into his election lies that the 2020 election had been stolen." BEYOND THE BELTWAY BOMBSHELL REPORT — A major new investigation — the biggest in Southern Baptist history — found that leaders of the church failed to protect their flocks from a list of more than 700 abusive pastors that the church kept secret rather than acting upon. "The men who controlled the Executive Committee — which runs day-to-day operations of the Southern Baptist Convention — knew the scope of the problem," writes Christianity Today's Kate Shellnutt . "But, working closely with their lawyers, they maligned the people who wanted to do something about abuse and repeatedly rejected pleas for help and reform." AMERICA AND THE WORLD ANNALS OF DIPLOMACY — New Zealand PM JACINDA ARDERN is coming to New York, Boston and D.C. this week. But it remains to be seen whether she'll be able to meet with Biden because she's just gotten out of Covid isolation, per Bloomberg. MEDIAWATCH HEADS UP — A foreign Reuters reporter traveling with the Pentagon's No. 2 official had their phone seized and their electronics obstructed aboard a plane, with the Defense Department citing a new rule for top-secret classified planes, Lara Seligman reports. "In a statement to POLITICO, Air Force spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER said the incident was a 'miscommunication' and said the service will 'be reviewing the policy going forward.'"
| | | | HAPPENING WEDNESDAY—A WOMEN RULE TALK ON THE MIDTERMS : Join POLITICO'S Women Rule for a conversation with the women running the midterm campaigns and how they are shaping messaging and strategy for their candidates. The program will look into what a win for either party could mean for access to reproductive health care, economic advancement of women, and how the final stages of the Covid-19 pandemic are managed. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Josh Harder is among those who can't get baby formula. "You are a brainwashed asshole," Rudy Giuliani shouted at a man. John Fetterman and Chris Van Hollen were both released from the hospital following their strokes. Paging Ashley Feinberg: Elon Musk has a finsta. Bob Woodward was the commencement speaker at Boston University. At the JFK Profiles in Courage award ceremony Sunday, honoree Liz Cheney told the crowd, "The question for every one of us is in this time of testing, will we do our duty? Will we defend our Constitution? Will we stand for truth? Will we put duty to our oath above partisan politics? Or will we look away from danger, ignore the threat, embrace the lies and enable the liar?" Watch the full speech Tulchin Research received a Campaign Excellence Award from the American Association of Political Consultants, as Ben Tulchin, Ben Krompak and Corey Teter were named Democratic Pollster of the Year for their work for Eric Adams. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Netflix has dropped the trailer for "The Martha Mitchell Effect," from directors Anne Alvergue and Debra McClutchy. The documentary chronicles the story of the socialite and Republican Cabinet wife who became a divisive figure in Washington after speaking out about the Watergate scandal. — Anita Rajan is now general director of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association's Washington office. She previously was manager of government affairs at Mitsubishi Motors R&D of America Inc. MEDIA MOVE — Catherine Boudreau is now senior sustainability reporter for Insider. She previously was a sustainability reporter at POLITICO. TRANSITIONS — Robert Etter and Max Mandich are joining Global Counsel. Etter is an adviser and most recently was associate director for legislative affairs for OMB. Mandich is a senior associate in the financial services practice and most recently was a policy adviser for Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.). … Jorge Martínez is now Hispanic outreach strategist and Spanish spokesperson for America First Policy Institute. He's a GOP PR/comms veteran and George W. Bush DOJ alum. … Nadgey Louis-Charles is the new deputy comms director for House Judiciary Republicans and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). She previously was comms director for Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), and is a Kelly Loeffler and Jody Hice alum. … … Robert Yeakel is now manager of federal government relations at DoorDash. He most recently was VP of government relations for the National Grocers Association, and is a House Budget alum. … Gabby Richards is now director of federal advocacy comms at Planned Parenthood. She previously was at BerlinRosen, and is a Mary Gay Scanlon alum. … Global Situation Room is adding Kat Maramba as VP of media engagement, Madison Lasaz as a senior account manager, Kasey Henderson as an account manager, Terry Gaines as an account supervisor, Mahnoor Haq as a comms associate and Cole Beaty as a research assistant. ENGAGED — Sandeep Prasanna, an investigative counsel for the Jan. 6 committee, and Ryan Whalen, a lead associate with Booz Allen's Strategic Innovation Group, got engaged with two proposals on the past two Saturdays. Ryan planned a day around Georgetown, leading to a sunset proposal on the rooftop terrace of the Kennedy Center. Then Sandeep planned a daylong scavenger hunt around town to significant spots in their relationship, leading to a proposal on a balcony in the Capitol. Pics WEDDINGS — New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Manuel Cordova, a small business owner, got married by VP Kamala Harris in a small ceremony at the VP's residence Saturday. Washington Lt. Gov. Denny Heck escorted the bridal party. — Hayley D'Antuono, chief of staff to Melania Trump, and Beau Harrison, who works for Donald Trump, got married May 14 at the Basilica of St. Mary in Old Town Alexandria (her family church), with a reception at the Willard Hotel. The couple, both Trump White House alums, met on her first day in the White House in March 2017. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) … William Minor of DLA Piper … WaPo's Dana Priest … former A.G. Bill Barr … Shekar Narasimhan … ABC's Mary Bruce … Nate McDermott … NBC's Danielle Dellorto … Jorge Martínez (5-0) … Megan McKinley … CNN's Adam Levy … Melanie Fonder Kaye … PhRMA's Sarah Sutton … Reuel Marc Gerecht … Washington Examiner's Anna Giaritelli … Rachel MacKnight … DSCC's Helen Smith … Georgiana Bloom … Mel Lukens … Arianna Miskin (27) … Jerry Goldfeder (75) … Tom Heinemann Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Correction: Sunday's Playbook misstated GOP Sen. Rand Paul's state affiliation. He represents Kentucky.
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