News: The inflation argument splitting Dems in two

Monday, April 18, 2022

The inflation argument splitting Dems in two

Apr 18, 2022

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By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

MITCH'S MASSIVE AD BUY — Burgess Everett has the exclusive on a gargantuan new ad buy from the Senate Leadership Fund: The MITCH MCCONNELL -aligned GOP super PAC is booking "$141 million in fall advertisements to help turn the Senate red, a staggering sum that sets the stage for a vicious battle over the chamber's control." The group is "reserving eight-figure ad flights starting in September."

Where that money is going:

$37 million in Georgia to defeat RAPHAEL WARNOCK
$27 million in North Carolina to hold the seat being vacated by RICHARD BURR
$24 million in Pennsylvania to hold the seat being vacated by PAT TOOMEY
$15 million in Nevada to defeat CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO
$15 million in Wisconsin to bolster RON JOHNSON
$14 million in Arizona to defeat MARK KELLY
$7.4 million in Alaska to, as Burgess writes, "protect incumbent LISA MURKOWSKI from a DONALD TRUMP-inspired primary challenge."

Where it's NOT going: The group has not yet put any money into New Hampshire, where Democrat MAGGIE HASSAN is running for reelection.

Privately, more and more Democrats see inflation in far more dire terms. | Getty Images

MORE DEM ALARM OVER INFLATION — Democratic strategists have split in two over how to discuss inflation.

One camp tends to blame the media for focusing too much on the issue at the expense of positive economic news such as low unemployment. This group tends to promote statistics buried beneath the headlines that suggest inflation isn't that bad. SIMON ROSENBERG of NDN has been leading the charge on this. "And some context on inflation," he wrote recently . "It is high, but wages/stocks/home prices [are] also way up. People who are really feeling it are those who use a lot of gas. For most everything else it's [a] modest 2-3% net increase. Net grocery bill has gone from $100 to $102.80."

But privately, more and more Democrats see inflation in far more dire terms — and not just for their prospects in elections this year.

One top progressive sounded the alarm over the weekend on a widely read off-the-record email list. The author gave us permission to quote from their missive — "Danger: Inflation Is a Third Rail" — which was ricocheting around lefty circles Sunday night. A couple of things stood out to us:

1. Some progressives now see inflation as an accelerant for both fiscal conservatism and authoritarianism. The former is undoubtedly true: Inflation concerns have already killed President JOE BIDEN's multitrillion-dollar social welfare proposal and pushed him to embrace deficit reduction. But our anonymous progressive warns of something darker:

"Obviously inflation does not always lead to authoritarianism. But when it is a feature of the political environment, it often compounds the weakness of regimes already under stress. In that environment, the appeal of a strong leader who can 'just fix it' becomes considerably more appealing both to the population and leading business interests. … Although Trump has not seized on inflation yet on the campaign trail, that opportunity remains open for him and MAGA."

2. Inflation is a psychological trauma for many Americans that financial elites don't understand:

"I've become very concerned that most of us are not appreciating how terrifying rising prices are for most Americans. If you haven't lived through an extended inflationary episode, and if you are reading this from the vantage point of personal financial security, it will be very difficult for you to comprehend how most Americans are experiencing rising prices now …

"Unlike nearly every other 'issue' which can be ignored by most Americans in their daily lives, inflation insists on voters' attention — and not just when they go to the gas station to discover gas prices are higher again. The financially stressed have a kind of mental overhead that those who are not financially stressed don't: constant mental checkbook balancing, constant recognition that buying this means not having that , and doubts about your ability to provide for those you care about most. Rising prices compound those daily recalculations of how to make it through the month, because you cannot even be certain of the prices for your immediate necessities. There is an enormous literature connecting financial stress with mental illness, suicide and poorer health outcomes. To a great extent, it is the psychological mechanism driving deaths of despair."

BUT LOOK WHO'S TALKING ABOUT INFLATION — Given the stakes, it's perhaps surprising that Democrats aren't talking about inflation more. But new data from Quorum, which scoured public comments and tabulated how much each lawmaker mentioned inflation between Jan. 1 and April 13, shows a major divide between the two parties.

The 10 lawmakers who talk about inflation the most are all Republicans. Not surprisingly, four of the top 10 are in the GOP's congressional leadership: Republican Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK (N.Y.), House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY, NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT (Fla.), and NRCC Chair TOM EMMER (Minn.).

Most vulnerable Democrats don't talk about inflation, according to the Quorum data. Nine of the top 10 Democrats who mention it the most are in safe races, are not up for election or are retiring. The top three are Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and Reps. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) and DON BEYER (D-Va.).

But there's one exception: The No. 4 spot on the Dems' top inflation talkers list goes to Rep. SHARICE DAVIDS (D-Kan.), whose race is considered a tossup. Does she know something her fellow Democrats don't?

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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KAMALA'S WORDLE SECRETS — Last week at a DNC fundraiser that we covered, VP KAMALA HARRIS let us in on a secret: She, too, is obsessed with Wordle.

Now, The Ringer's Claire McNear has just published an exclusive interview with Harris on the veep's Wordle strategies. Some highlights:

Harris' starter word is "NOTES." She explains that it's a "healthy mix of consonants and vowels, and a lot of words end with an s."

Her current streak is 48, though she says it "got messed up when [Wordle] got moved over to the New York Times."

Unlike the rest of us who can share our Wordle victories with the group chat, Harris can't. "My phone doesn't let me text anybody, which is sad," she said.

Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF are routinely in a Wordle war. (Relatable!)

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BIDEN'S MONDAY:

— 10:15 a.m.: The president and first lady JILL BIDEN will deliver remarks for the 2022 White House Easter "EGGucation" Roll, with Harris and Emhoff also in attendance.

— 1:45 p.m.: Biden will receive the President's Daily Brief.

HARRIS' MONDAY (all times Eastern):

— 12:05 p.m.: Harris and Emhoff will depart D.C. en route to Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

— 6:15 p.m.: Harris will receive a briefing on the U.S. Space Force and U.S. Space Command.

— 7:30 p.m.: Harris will meet with service members and their families, and deliver remarks at 8:15 p.m.

— 8:55 p.m.: Harris and Emhoff will depart Vandenberg Space Force Base en route to Los Angeles.

— 11:10 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at a DNC fundraiser.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 4 p.m.

THE SENATE and THE HOUSE are out.

BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD:

— Tuesday: Biden will travel to Portsmouth, N.H., where he will visit the New Hampshire Port Authority and discuss his agenda.

— Wednesday: Biden will meet with Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Combatant Commanders in the Cabinet Room, and later will host a dinner for the group with the first lady.

— Thursday: Biden will travel to Portland, Ore., where he will discuss infrastructure.

— Friday (Earth Day): Biden will travel to Seattle, where he will discuss his administration's climate change response.

DON'T MISS ANYTHING FROM THE 2022 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from the 25th annual Global Conference. This year's event, May 1-4, brings together more than 3,000 of the world's most influential leaders, including 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. "Celebrating the Power of Connection" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect influencers with the resources to change the world with leading experts and thinkers whose insight and creativity can implement that change. Whether you're attending in person or following along from somewhere else in the world, keep up with this year's conference with POLITICO's special edition "Global Insider" so you don't miss a beat. Subscribe today.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Worshippers gather for a sunrise Easter Sunday celebration at the Lincoln Memorial, Sunday, April 17, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Worshippers gather for a sunrise Easter Sunday celebration at the Lincoln Memorial. | AP

PLAYBOOK READS

THE ECONOMY

FUTURE FORECASTING — "Goldman Sachs Sees U.S. Recession Odds at 35% in Next Two Years," by Bloomberg's Eric Martin

ALL POLITICS

WHERE IT COUNTS — Run for Something, a Democratic group that recruits and trains candidates, is pitching donors on an $80 million, three-year program to "find, train and support 5,000 candidates for local offices in charge of election administration, a sprawling national effort intended to fight subversion of future election results," reports Elena Schneider. Called project "Clerk Work," the effort "will include every state where election administrators are themselves elected by voters."

ON WISCONSIN — One of Democrats' best opportunities to expand their Senate majority in November is in Wisconsin, where they hope to take down GOP incumbent RON JOHNSON. But could the timing-blessed senator survive in what's shaping up to be another good year for Republicans? "Democrats intend to paint Johnson as a different man from the one voters elected in 2010, someone who morphed from an outsider businessman concerned about the national debt to, as [ JOE] ZEPECKI calls him, 'a conspiracy theory-fueled crank,'" AP's Scott Bauer reports. And Lt. Gov. MANDELA BARNES, one of the Dem frontrunners, has embarked on a tour of rural Wisconsin to try to win back voters.

THE LEFT'S NEW PURITY TEST? — In North Carolina, progressives are rescinding their endorsement of Democratic state Sen. VALERIE FOUSHEE after campaign disclosures "showed that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) made significant donations to Senator Foushee's campaign comprising more than half the campaign's total quarterly fundraising," the Progressive Caucus of the NCDP said in a statement. "No American candidate should be accepting funds from an organization that provides financial support for those seeking to destroy our democracy.

TRUMP CARDS

THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE MACHINE — NYT's Shane Goldmacher has a neat summation of Trump's place in the contemporary GOP: He's something akin to a 19th-century party boss, towering over Republicans from his perch at Mar-a-Lago. In this deeply reported step back with 50+ sources, Goldmacher writes that Trump's obsession with unadulterated loyalty matches his role as kingmaker, and "he draws gratification from the raw exercise of his power." "Working from a large wooden desk reminiscent of the one he used in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump has transformed Mar-a-Lago's old bridal suite into a shadow G.O.P. headquarters, amassing more than $120 million."

Notable detail: "Not unlike past political bosses, Mr. Trump has focused heavily on the mechanics of elections — who counts the votes, who certifies them — while ceaselessly sowing distrust in the system through false claims of vote rigging."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE NEW CULTURE WARS — The conservative movement to censor books has been successful in Llano, Texas, a small city where WaPo's Annie Gowen reports that everything from MAURICE SENDAK's "In the Night Kitchen" to "Freddie the Farting Snowman" to ISABEL WILKERSON's "Caste" has been pulled from public library shelves. How it happened: The very conservative county dissolved its library board and replaced them with largely political appointees, going on to close their meetings to the public and introduce religious elements. Ultimately, it's a "censorship battle that is unlikely to end well for proponents of free speech," Gowen writes.

POLICY CORNER

THE SETTING SOHN — Democrats' hopes of securing a majority on the Federal Communications Commission are running into another potential obstacle — their pick is becoming a midterm campaign issue, John Hendel reports. "A coalition of Republicans, moderate Democrats and telecom industry allies are ratcheting up pressure on potential swing Democrats to oppose FCC nominee GIGI SOHN, including by calling the progressive consumer advocate an 'anti-police radical' and accusing her of being biased against rural America. Sohn's supporters say these broad swipes, rooted in politically sensitive culture wars, bear little attachment to her actual record."

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THE PANDEMIC

RIPPLE EFFECT — Kids aren't getting caught up on routine shots they missed during the pandemic, and many public health experts are blaming Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy. Public health officials and school nurses in 10 states told POLITICO they worry an increasing number of families are projecting their attitudes toward the Covid vaccine on routine shots for measles, chicken pox, meningitis and other diseases, our colleagues Megan Messerly and Krista Mahr report . "That has pediatricians, school nurses and public health experts worried that preventable and possibly fatal childhood illnesses, once thought to be a thing of the past, could become more common."

CHOOSE YOUR OWN PANDEMIC — In year three of the pandemic, gone are the stern recommendations and admonishments to get vaccinated. Pandemic precautions and responses have become something of a "choose your own adventure" story.

— "Health officials are leaving it up to people to assess if they need booster shots, whether to wear a mask and how long to isolate after a positive test. Businesses, schools and other entities are scaling back specific guidelines as they prepare for a return to normal," WSJ's Jared Hopkins writes. Thanks to the wide array of offerings that "help dent the worst outcomes as the virus continues to spread, the response is becoming more tailored to people's own health and appetite for risk, according to public-health experts."

— NYT's Benjamin Mueller also has a look at this new approach , writing that "many scientists said they also worried about this latest phase of the pandemic heaping too much of the burden on individuals to make choices about keeping themselves and others safe, especially while the tools for fighting Covid remained beyond some Americans' reach."

WAR IN UKRAINE

WASHINGTON'S LEAST POPULAR MAN — Our colleague Nahal Toosi talks to the one man in Washington that no one else wants to: ANATOLY ANTONOV . "Russia's ambassador to the United States can't get meetings with senior officials at the White House or the State Department. He can't convince U.S. lawmakers to see him, much less take a photo. It's the rare American think tanker who's willing to admit to having any contact with the envoy. Not even Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN chats with him. …

"It is unwise, foolish, he insists, to shut out the ambassador of a country with which the United States is 'doomed to cooperate' on everything from nuclear non-proliferation to climate change. … In an exclusive interview with POLITICO — conducted last week in the ornate Ukrainian Room of the Russian embassy over tea, ice cream and pastries cooked by a beloved chef the U.S. is soon to kick out — Antonov is by turns charming and unbending, with a riposte for every question that challenges the Kremlin's official position."

'SURRENDER OR DIE' — "Ukrainian fighters who were holed up in a massive steel plant in the last known pocket of resistance inside the shattered city of Mariupol ignored a surrender-or-die ultimatum from Russia on Sunday and held out against the capture of the strategically vital port," report AP's Adam Schreck and Mstyslav Chernov.

— After the Ukrainian fighters defending Mariupol refused to surrender on Sunday, "the Russian assault intensified," NYT's Michael Schwirtz, Jack Nicas and Neil MacFarquhar report.

THE BIG PICTURE — "All this land is in blood, and it will take years to recover," the wife of a Ukrainian civilian reportedly executed by Russians tells AP's Cara Anna and Emilio Morenatti . In the killing fields of the Kyiv suburbs, they write in this harrowing story, volunteers are digging up the bodies left behind by the invading forces: "This spring is a grim season of planting and replanting."

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION

FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — "Container ship stuck in Chesapeake Bay for more than a month is free," by WaPo's Ian Shapira

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PLAYBOOKERS

Tucker Carlson, in a new special for Fox Nation, discussed, um … "testicle tanning" — a self-described red-light "therapy" that its promoters claim raises testosterone levels. Kid Rock was just as confused as the rest of us.

Scott Adams tweeted that on somewhere between "5-7" occasions, someone "stole more than $50,000 from me." (We tend to think we'd remember exactly how many times that happened to us.)

Alex Jones' businesses are weighing bankruptcy in an effort to pause civil litigation against the far-right radio host, reports Bloomberg.

Showtime debuted its new series, "The First Lady," on Sunday night, examining the lives of Michelle Obama (played by Viola Davis), Betty Ford ( Michelle Pfeiffer) and Eleanor Roosevelt (Gillian Anderson).

COVID COLOR CLASH — By now, it's something of a ritual: If you're a White House staffer or a reporter who's going to be close to one of the four main principals of the administration (Biden, Harris or their spouses), you must first get a negative result on a Covid test. That result gets you a one-day wristband that signifies you're clear to have access, and everyone goes on their merry way.

On Friday, one of the technicians who handles the Covid testing at the White House told us that they recently added more wristband colors to the mix ("Even teal!"). Apparently some of the more fashion-focused folks were getting frustrated with the lack of color options and seeming randomness of the palette.

The tech says they've had "lots of press, but mostly staff" who try to get the skinny on what color the bands are going to be ahead of time so they can color-coordinate their outfits. We're told that one administration staffer recently wore red hoping that the day's wristband would complement the color — and when it didn't, the staffer scoffed with disgust as the tech put a clashing color on their wrist. (Who says serious people can't care about fashion?)

TRANSITIONS — Conner Larsen is now senior digital strategist at Woolf Strategy. She previously was at DCG Communications. … Reed Howard is joining the Millennial Action Project as senior director of comms. He previously was director of comms at Georgetown's Institute of Politics and Public Service. … Marissa Morabito is joining Triple P America as U.S. head of public affairs. She previously was chief government affairs and policy officer at Prevent Child Abuse America.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Sam Nitz, partner at Fireside Campaigns and an EMILY's List alum, and Ben Takai of the D.C. Health Department got married Friday night at District Winery, surrounded by family and friends. Their first-date story: Ben and Sam were so lost in getting to know each other that neither of them realized Ben had spent the majority of the night with a full chicken tender stuck to his shorts — which they both found funny later. Pic … SPOTTED: officiant Brad Bauman, Pili Tobar and Christina Carr, Jessica Post and Andy LaVigne, Josh Dorner, Lauren Dikis, Karen Petel, Tatenda Musapatike, Brandon English, Molly Haigh, Julia Rosen Chaplin and Lucinda Guinn.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Frances Lanzone, manager of social impact, executive engagement and philanthropy at Amazon Web Services and a POLITICO and Obama White House alum, and Giuseppe Lanzone, co-founder and CEO of Peruvian Brothers and a former Olympic rower, welcomed Gisella Mia Lanzone on Tuesday. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Bob Latta (R-Ohio) and Gwen Moore (D-Wis.) … John Podhoretz … White House Cabinet Secretary Evan Ryan … White House's Kelsey Donohue, celebrating at the White House Easter Egg Roll … Kayleigh McEnany … Black Rock Group's Mike Dubke … Darby Grant … Nate Parker of Bart & Associates … Bret Manley … POLITICO's Burgess Everett, Michael Stratford and Lara Seligman … John Fogarty … DHS' Robert Silvers … USA Today's Donovan Slack … Sean Maloney … MSNBC's Ayman Mohyeldin … Grant Saunders of the Jan. 6 committee … Micki Werner … Tracy Spicer of Avenue Solutions … Caleb Crosswhite … Amazon's Brian Huseman … Doug Baker … Rick Kaplan … Protocol's Max Cherney … Ryan Sager … former Reps. Justin Amash (Libertarian-Mich.) and Karen Handel (R-Ga.) (6-0) … Zach Zaragoza … Princeton's Ben Chang, who celebrated at the Manchester United game this weekend … Phil Gordon … Trey Grayson (5-0)

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