Monday, April 4, 2022

Democrats’ two-do: Confirm Jackson, land Manchin

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POLITICO Playbook

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DRIVING THE DAY

LOOK WHO'S BACK — Former President BARACK OBAMA will join President JOE BIDEN at a White House event Tuesday celebrating the Affordable Care Act, the first time Obama's going back to 1600 Penn since leaving office, NBC's Mike Memoli scooped. It's their first joint activity in D.C. since Biden's inauguration. VP KAMALA HARRIS, HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA and other Cabinet members will be there too.

THE FINAL SCOTUS STRETCH — The White House and Senate Democrats expect Biden's Supreme Court nominee, KETANJI BROWN JACKSON, to be confirmed by the end of this week. The final two Republicans still in play, Sens. MITT ROMNEY (Utah) and LISA MURKOWSKI (Alaska), could announce how they plan to vote as soon as today.

Clinching a new Supreme Court justice is a big moment for any president. But given the historic nature of Jackson's nomination, this will be an even bigger deal for Biden.

Jackson is still making the rounds with senators she hasn't yet met one on one. In the meantime, the Judiciary Committee will take up the nomination this morning, with a full panel vote expected by day's end.

How it'll work … At 10 a.m., Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) and ranking member CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) will give opening statements. Then senators will talk — for many hours — about Jackson's nomination.

Aides say they're anticipating a full day since there are few rules to limit debate in committee. Demcrats and Jackson allies have been preparing for Republicans to bring up the largely refuted attack on Jackson's record on child pornography cases. As one committee aide put it Sunday night: "I would anticipate that being a very central topic of debate."

How it'll shake out … Aides expect a tied vote in committee, which would force Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER to file a motion to bring the nomination to the Senate floor with four hours of debate.

That discharge vote by the full Senate is expected late today, and it could reveal how the final vote will go — i.e. if Romney and Murkowski haven't announced their positions by then, their vote could provide a strong clue.

Senate aides are expecting Schumer to file cloture Tuesday, triggering up to 30 hours of debate on the nomination. We're told final confirmation could come as early as Thursday.

How it will play in the midterms … Saddled by Biden's low poll numbers and a stalled social change agenda, Democratic strategists are eager to point to Jackson's confirmation as a bona fide achievement heading into the election.

Reason for skepticism … The Supreme Court hasn't been a big motivator for Democratic voters in recent election cycles. But Democratic officials are hopeful a number of things will change that: DONALD TRUMP's engineering of a 6-3 conservative majority, the ensuing threat to abortion rights and, after this week, base enthusiasm about the first Black woman joining the court.

BREAKING ON SUNDAY: TRAGEDY IN SACRAMENTO — A mass shooting outside nightclubs early Sunday in downtown Sacramento left six dead and 12 injured, the worst toll in the city's history. More from The Sacramento Bee

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Populist right-wing leaders who have been aligned with Russia scored big victories in Europe on Sunday, with autocratic Hungarian PM VIKTOR ORBAN claiming a fourth term and Serbian President ALEKSANDAR VUCIC landing a second. More from Bloomberg

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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THREE MUST-READS FROM POLITICO'S CONGRESS TEAM THIS MORNING …

1) IF AT FIRST YOU CAN'T SUCCEED — Congressional Democrats are eyeing a big, final attempt to strike a party-line reconciliation bill with Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) that could come together this spring, soon after Jackson's confirmation. This time, their plan is basically just to go along with whatever Manchin wants. Burgess Everett has the latest on Plan C? Or is it Plan D? We lost track. A few tidbits:

— When is the *new* deadline? Good question. Manchin recently was saying July Fourth and before August recess, but other Dems want to move faster. "You either do it before Memorial Day or you're not going to do it," Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), who is close to Manchin, told Burgess.

— Manchin still meh? "But in typical Manchin form, the conservative Democrat is staying coy about how serious prospects are for an agreement." And some Dems are skeptical they can actually muscle their agenda through.

2) 'WE STILL HAVE A VILLAIN' — Democrats are hoping the reemergence of Trump on the political scene — and scandals involving his adherents like Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN (R-N.C.) — will save their flagging midterms prospects, Sarah Ferris and Nicholas Wu report this morning. "We still have a villain. We'll have to remind people of what that was like," says Rep. SCOTT PETERS (D-Calif.), who calls it "a tremendously mismanaged situation" that the Dem base is more mad at Manchin and Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) than at the GOP. But "whether anti-Trump energy can give Democrats sustained momentum" is "a nebulous prospect" for Dems, Sarah and Nick write.

3) JAN. 6 COMMITTEE CHILLS ON TRUMP CRIMINAL REFERRAL — The NYT reportedover the weekend that Biden thinks Trump should be prosecuted for his role in the Jan. 6 riot. But when Nicholas Wu and Kyle Cheney talked to some members of the Jan. 6 committee last week, the lawmakers were cool to the idea of making a "criminal referral" of Trump to the DOJ.

Said Rep. ZOE LOFGREN (D-Calif.), a confidante of Speaker NANCY PELOSI : "A referral doesn't mean anything. It has no legal weight whatsoever, and I'm pretty sure the Department of Justice has read [last week's] opinion, so they don't need us to tell them that it exists."

Lofgren was referring to a recent court ruling that Trump "more likely than not" committed felonies.

Technically, she's right: A referral carries no weight legally; it's more of a political statement. But that's exactly what other Democrats want — any way to publicly light a fire under A.G. MERRICK GARLAND to get him to prosecute Trump. Not issuing a referral would not sit well with them.

Politically, though, a referral would be risky business — an unprecedented and explosive move that would ignite the GOP. Better to let Garland get there on his own, more cautious Democrats reason, than to possibly make it look like he's being bullied by Congress.

 

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BIDEN'S MONDAY:

— 9:25 a.m.: The president will depart New Castle, Del., to return to D.C., where he is scheduled to arrive at 10:20 a.m.

— 11:30 a.m.: Biden will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 1:45 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks on the supply chain with Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG.

HARRIS' MONDAY — The VP will deliver remarks announcing the administration's plans to upgrade public schools with clean and energy-efficient facilities and transportation at Thomas Elementary School in D.C. at 5:20 p.m.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2:45 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. The Judiciary Committee will take up Jackson's nomination at 10 a.m., with the expected vote on the floor to discharge her nomination from committee sometime after 5:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at noon. The Rules Committee will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the resolution recommending that the House find PETER NAVARRO and DAN SCAVINO in contempt of Congress for not complying with Jan. 6 committee subpoenas.

BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD:

— Tuesday: The president will announce new action to shore up the ACA and reduce health care costs at the event with Obama.

— Wednesday: Biden will address the North America's Building Trades Unions Legislative Conference.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

A woman walks amid destroyed Russian tanks in Bucha, in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, April 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)

Destroyed Russian tanks litter Bucha, Ukraine, on Sunday after forces withdrew from the Kyiv suburb. | AP

PLAYBOOK READS

WAR IN UKRAINE

HUMANITARIAN HORROR, PART I — Hundreds of civilian bodies, some with their wrists tied behind their backs. Signs of torture. Reports of soldiers murdering door to door. Will the town named Bucha join the ranks of Srebrenica and My Lai and become one of the early defining world-historical moments from this war? The Ukrainian reports out of the Kyiv suburb, from which Russians withdrew this weekend, were brutal. The words "genocide" and "war crimes" came more freely from leaders and organizations that had been careful to avoid such language previously.

And they quickly changed some of the West's political calculus around the war, as Europeans called for tougher sanctions and Germany raised the prospect of cutting off Russian gas, the big step it's been unwilling to take. More details from the AP and the NYT MUST WATCH: Graphic NYT video

— PART II: On "60 Minutes" on Sunday night, CBS' Scott Pelley revealed disturbing images from Russian strikes on hospitals in Mariupol and elsewhere, explicitly accusing Russia of violating the Geneva Convention.

— PART III: In Trostyanets, a Ukrainian town in the Northeast that also recently emptied of Russian forces after a month, NYT's Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Natalia Yermak find stories of brutality: "children held at knife point; an old woman forced to drink alcohol as her occupiers watched and laughed; whispers of rape and forced disappearances; and an old man found toothless, beaten in a ditch and defecated on."

— PART IV: Irpin is a "wasteland of destruction" as residents emerge, WaPo's Siobhán O'Grady and Max Bearak report.

HOW WILL BIDEN RESPOND? — The president, who was in Delaware this weekend, hasn't yet spoken out publicly on this latest news. All eyes will be on him as he returns to Washington. Behind the scenes, there were early indicators of policy movement: The U.S. is now considering stepping up sanctions on Russia in light of the new reports, WaPo's Jeff Stein and John Hudson write, though details remain unclear.

 

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ALL POLITICS

IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID — Improving the economy — and making voters believe in it — is perhaps the central task facing Biden now as he focuses more on kitchen-table issues, AP's Josh Boak, Zeke Miller and Chris Megerian report. The mixture of positive and negative indicators makes constructing a narrative tough for the White House. But the strategy aides tell the AP they're working on sounds largely like what we've seen from the administration thus far: tout job growth, highlight infrastructure investments, tackle the deficit and try to tamp down prices.

FETTERMAN SKIPS FIRST PA. PRIMARY DEBATE — Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN's absence was the big story at a Democratic Senate primary debate Sunday night, with Rep. CONOR LAMB and MALCOLM KENYATTA trying to leverage the empty podium to attack the frontrunner, the Philly Inquirer's Julia Terruso and Jonathan Tamari report.

"In 90 minutes of jabs and jokes, both men — especially Lamb — argued that Fetterman's decision to skip the debate was an insult to voters and a red flag for his candidacy in a critical Senate contest. 'He didn't respect you enough to show up today,' Lamb told a crowd of about 175 people at Muhlenberg College."

The step back: "With little time left to erode Fetterman's advantage, the tone of his rivals and the intensity of the race has shifted considerably." To understand why Fetterman was a no-show, read this recent Holly Otterbein scoop.

AND ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE OF THINGS … 

THE NEW GOP — Regardless of Trump's personal political future, his stamp on American politics is undeniable: The Republican Party has remolded its policy positions in his image for the 2022 campaign, WSJ's Natalie Andrews and Eliza Collins report . Though it's "a party still grappling with how much wiggle room lawmakers have in their relationship with Mr. Trump and his politically polarizing persona," they write, attendees at the recent House GOP confab in Florida were happy to align with Trump's positions on immigration or energy.

FROM ONE DISRUPTOR TO THE NEXT — Trump officially endorsed SARAH PALIN in the Alaska House race Sunday, calling her "a true America First fighter."

Puck's Peter Hamby notes that Trump's and Palin's political fortunes have long been intertwined.

HAPPENING TUESDAY — The L.A. Times' Priscella Vega has a good preview of the special election this week to replace former Rep. DEVIN NUNES (R-Calif.), which features four Republicans and two Democrats running for a district that will be redrawn in just a few months. CONNIE CONWAY, a Republican, is seen as the frontrunner.

KNOWING MIKE DEWINE — The Atlantic's Russell Berman profiles the Ohio governor, an establishment Republican who might have been a leading national figure in a different era but is instead facing a primary challenge over his Covid policies. "For the moment, however, DeWine appears to be in decent shape, a position he owes to both luck—his gubernatorial challengers are currently splitting the anti-DeWine vote, and the Senate race is hogging the spotlight—and the combination of savvy and tenacity that has defined his long career in politics," Berman writes. The stakes of next month's primary: "whether one of the last of the Reagan Republicans can survive one more election in the age of Donald Trump."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

POLARIZATION STEP BACK — Single-party control of state legislatures and aggressive action from Republicans and Democrats have combined to make ordinary life increasingly different in red America vs. blue America, NYT's Shawn Hubler and Jill Cowan report. Their 30,000-foot view finds that particularly in Western states, Republican social policies and Democratic responses on abortion, transgender children, guns, voting and more are fragmenting the country. "We're potentially entering a new era of state-centered policymaking," one expert tells them.

THE ADAMS FAMILY — NYC Mayor ERIC ADAMS told employees that City Hall has to approve even minor city communications to ensure "discipline of message" on a Zoom call that was … promptly leaked to Julia Marsh. Adams said any violators of the policy, which he framed as a crucial counter to a "gotcha" press, would be fired.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DEAL OR NO DEAL? — Iran said Sunday that it thinks a revival of the nuclear deal with the U.S. is close to happening, per Bloomberg . The foreign minister said Iran is awaiting an American response to its latest proposals on the terrorism designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is seen as the last big sticking point.

BIG NEWS IN HONG KONG — Chief executive CARRIE LAM said today she would not seek a second term leading Hong Kong, following a five-year tenure during which China has largely taken control. More from the AP

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — "Longtime WUSA9 anchor Bruce Johnson dies at 71," WUSA9: "Bruce Johnson, a beloved longtime WUSA9 anchor, died of heart failure Sunday morning in Delaware. He was 71. He is survived by his wife, Lori, three children — Brandon, Kurshanna and Carolyn — and three grandsons. The legendary Johnson devoted 44 years of his professional life to telling remarkable stories for WUSA9 from March 16, 1976 through his retirement on Dec. 31, 2020."

KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE — Donald Trump had some fun trolling one of the 10 GOP impeachers he's trying to oust, Peter Meijerspecifically how you pronounce his last name — in Washington Township, Mich., on Saturday night. What he didn't realize? While jokes about pronunciation may have tickled him, everyone in that area knows how to say "Meijer," which is one of the most popular grocery store chains in the Midwest, and which also happens to be owned by the congressman's family. It's like knowing how to say "Walmart" or "KMart."

Even Bono, it appears, can't keep away from Fiola Mare's Ancona seafood tower … (h/t @TommyMcFLY, who says the singer was in town to visit with Capitol Police).

Joe Biden called Rupert Murdoch "the most dangerous man in the world," according to an anecdote in the forthcoming book by Alex Burns and Jonathan Martin.

Meghan McCain is annoyed by Beltway types who aren't from the South but say "y'all" and "folks" to try to sound relatable.

MEDIAWATCH — MSNBC's "Morning Joe" is going to four hours from three, from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m., starting today.

SPOTTED at the opening night of "Paradise Square," a new musical co-produced by Joe Crowley, on Broadway on Sunday night: Reps. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.), Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) and Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), NYC Mayor Eric Adams, New York A.G. Tish James,Terry and Dorothy McAuliffe, Huma Abedin, Bill de Blasio, Patti LuPone, Chita Rivera, Tiki Barber and Tracy Lynn Johnson, and Jane Lynch.

SPOTTED at the Gridiron Sunday brunch hosted by Esther Coopersmith at her Kalorama home with her host for Saturday night's dinner, veteran Gridiron member T. Dean Reed: British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Thai Ambassador Manasvi Srisodapol, Irish Ambassador Daniel Mulhall and Greta Mulhall, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), and Ben and Diane Nelson.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Fareed Yasseen is leaving as Iraq's ambassador to the U.S. at the end of this week after a more than five-year tour in Washington. He is the former Iraqi ambassador to France and was trained as a physicist before entering political activism and human rights advocacy. Prior to joining the Iraqi government, he had also worked at the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat.

Liz Allen is assuming the role of acting undersecretary of State for public diplomacy, which includes comms and also overseeing the department's disinformation efforts. She previously was assistant secretary of global public affairs, and is an Obama White House alum.

Steve Ruhlen is rejoining Rep. Kay Granger's (R-Texas) office as chief of staff, a position he previously held in 2015 and taking over from Cole Rojewski. Ruhlen most recently was a partner at Total Spectrum and is a Bush White House alum.

Daniel Steen has been hired as the next executive director of Lawyers for Civil Justice. He most recently was VP for liability and counsel at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

TRANSITIONS — Andres Vinelli is now chief economist at the CFA Institute. He previously was VP for economic policy at the Center for American Progress. … Bryson Wong is now director for federal government affairs for the Idaho National Laboratory. He previously was a senior legislative assistant for Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho). … Dave Straka is now a legislative assistant for Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio). He previously was a legislative correspondent for Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), and is a Rob Portman alum. …

… Jock Gilchrist is now a senior associate for sustainability for the corporate responsibility team at JP Morgan Chase & Co. He previously was research and initiatives manager for the Climate Center. … Robert Winkler is joining Kratos Defense & Security Solutions as VP of corporate development and national security programs. He most recently was a professional staff member for the Senate Armed Services Committee and staff-lead for the Air Land Subcommittee. … Eller Group is adding Democratic media consultant Thomas "Doc" Sweitzer and marketing/comms veteran Blathrae Gillin.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Katie Rosborough, policy comms lead at Twitter, and Jon Rosoborough, VP at Statler Nagle, welcomed Wesley Caldwell Rosborough on March 28. He just beat the clock and was born at 11:59 p.m., coming in at 7 lbs, 5.3 oz and 21 inches long. He joins big brother James and dog Harper.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) … Business Roundtable's Molly Edwards Connor … NYT's Jo Becker … Dell's Hillary (Maxwell) Beightel … Treasury's Warren Ryan … Deloitte's Dan JacobsRyan Davis of Covington & Burling … Charles HalloranJake OlsonJennifer Humphrey … Bloomberg Government's Heather RothmanJeffrey EkomaMichael Merola of Winning Strategies Washington … GE's Meg ThurlowMolly Mitchell of Bully Pulpit Interactive … Bridget Spurlock … NBC's Joy WangMichael Halle Chris Crawford of Rep. Buddy Carter's (R-Ga.) office … retired Adm. Bobby Ray Inman, former NSA director (91) … former Sen. Mo Cowan (D-Mass.) … POLITICO's Katie Brennan and Mike Raburn Allan Lichtman Nick Snow of Targeted Victory … Ali Rubin Elizabeth Daigneau

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