Monday, April 4, 2022

Is Putin committing genocide in Ukraine?

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Apr 04, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Quint Forgey

Ukrainian soldiers examine destroyed Russian military vehicles.

Ukrainian soldiers examine destroyed Russian military vehicles following a battle in Bucha, Ukraine, Monday, April 4, 2022. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo

With help from Andrew Desiderio, Maggie Miller, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Daniel Lippman

Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint

The images over the weekend from the Ukrainian suburb of Bucha outside Kyiv — bound and battered bodies strewn in the streets, bags of corpses lining muddy trenches, limbs protruding from mass gravesites — have produced perhaps the most profound moment of "moral outrage" among the international community since the start of Russia's bloody invasion.

But do the atrocities — uncovered amid Russian forces' retreat from northern Ukraine — constitute genocide? It depends on who you ask.

Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has been unequivocal. "Indeed, this is genocide, the elimination of the whole nation and the people," he told CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sunday. Kyiv Mayor VITALI KLITSCHKO concurred, telling German newspaper Bild that "what happened in Bucha and other suburbs of Kyiv can only be described as genocide."

In interviews Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union," however, both Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG declined to use that term. Blinken pledged that U.S. officials "will look hard, document everything we see" and "put it all together" for the "relevant institutions and organizations." Stoltenberg said only that the massacre was "a brutality against civilians we haven't seen in Europe for decades."

President JOE BIDEN weighed in Monday, telling reporters that "what is happening in Bucha is outrageous," and calling Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN "brutal" and "a war criminal." But pressed on whether he agreed with Zelenskyy's assessment of genocide, Biden replied: "No, I think it is a war crime."

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN also addressed the distinction at the White House news briefing Monday: "This is something we of course continue to monitor every day. Based on what we have seen so far, we have seen atrocities. We have seen war crimes. We have not yet seen a level of systematic deprivation of life of the Ukrainian people to rise to the level of genocide."

The semantic debate between Ukraine and the West is reminiscent of other dust-ups in recent months over what kind of language to use with regard to Russia's aggression. Zelenskyy's government memorably broke with the Biden administration in the days before Moscow's declaration of a "special operation" on the White House broadcasting that a Russian invasion was "imminent." On the other hand, Biden has been slower than some of his fellow world leaders to accuse Russia of war crimes.

On the genocide question, though, it's Zelenskyy who's in the right, according to GREGORY STANTON, the founding president and chair of Genocide Watch. "My view is that these are crimes of genocide, as well as war crimes and crimes against humanity," he said.

While war crimes and crimes against humanity refer to prosecutable crimes by individuals that are covered by the Geneva Conventions, genocide is typically a group crime — one that can be committed by a state against its own people or the people of another state, Stanton explained. In this case, he said, the invading Russian forces "have the intent to destroy, in part, a national group, and that's the Ukrainian group."

ALEXANDER HINTON, director of the Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights at Rutgers University, has a different view. While it's apparent that Russia is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine, he said, it's not exactly provable that genocide is taking place there — although such a possibility remains a "very real threat."

The legal definition of genocide is the intent to destroy one of four types of protected groups — ethnic, national, racial or religious — "because of who they are," Hinton said. Perpetrators of genocide "want to destroy a people as opposed to defeat an army," and they operate with "an intent and a systematicity."

Putin's past statements about seeking to denazify Ukraine, for example, represent statements of intent, he said. But it's unclear whether those sentiments have trickled down through the ranks, and "we don't have the evidence yet" of a systematized, genocidal campaign in Ukraine.

So, apart from good-faith disagreements on technical definitions, how should natsec observers interpret the Biden administration's reluctance to label the barbarity in Bucha as genocide? One reason for U.S. officials' hesitation is that the word is "sort of a legal term" and "considered by lawyers to be their property," Stanton said. But more importantly, he continued, "genocide is a powerful word," and a declaration of genocide "places upon a nation greater duties" than a declaration of war crimes or crimes against humanity. "When you use the word, it has consequences."

Indeed, the U.S. has historically been resistant to designate genocides; only two weeks ago did the Biden administration formally determine that Myanmar's military committed genocide and crimes against humanity against the country's minority Rohingya population in 2016 and 2017.

Hinton said that although the use of the term genocide is "starting to bubble up" outside Ukraine, it's still a crime under international law — and one with "moral connotations" that "suggest you need to take a stronger form of action." He added: "I think in this case … there's a high risk of genocide. There's a possibility that it's begun. But it's not really possible at this point to say for sure it has."

 

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The Inbox

SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism.

War in Ukraine: 

— Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 18,300 personnel; 647 tanks; 1,844 armored combat vehicles; 330 artillery systems; 107 multiple-launch rocket systems; 147 warplanes; 134 helicopters; seven ships; and 92 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— "The Russian occupiers were defeated near Kyiv. Ukrainian defenders won the first battle for the capital. Kyiv region was liberated from the enemy. [Russian forces are] also retreating in Chernihiv and Sumy regions to regroup forces and change the direction of strikes." (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— "Heavy fighting now continues in Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Our troops are pushing back the occupiers in the Kherson region. Chernihiv remains in a difficult situation. The defenders of Mariupol, who have already become legends of today, are fighting heroically." (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

Global Response:

— Austria: Finance Minister MAGNUS BRUNNER ruled out any European sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas, saying "you have to stay cool" despite the "extremely horrible" reports of war crimes around Kyiv.

— France: President EMMANUEL MACRON called for new sanctions against Russia, "especially on coal and oil," to respond to the atrocities in Bucha.

— Germany: Economy Minister ROBERT HABECK announced that the German subsidiary of the Russian gas company Gazprom will be put under trusteeship with immediate effect.

— Lithuania: Foreign Affairs Minister GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS said Russia's ambassador was asked to leave the country, and that Lithuania's ambassador to Ukraine is returning to Kyiv.

— U.S.: Federal agents aided by Spain's Civil Guard seized a megayacht owned by VIKTOR VEKSELBERG, an oligarch with close ties to the Kremlin.

Headlines:

— The New York Times: "In a Kyiv Suburb,'They Shot Everyone They Saw'"

— The Wall Street Journal: " Release of Ukraine Intelligence Represents New Front in U.S. Information War With Russia"

— The Washington Post: "Russia denies and deflects in reaction to Bucha atrocities"

PUTIN'S PALS WIN REELECTION: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's two closest regional allies amid the invasion of Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN and Serbian President ALEKSANDAR VUČIĆ, coasted to reelection over the weekend after pledging during their campaigns to remain out of the war, per Bloomberg's MARTON KASNYIK, VERONIKA GULYAS and MISHA SAVIC.

Orbán, who's already ruled for 12 years and is Europe's longest-serving head of government, won a fourth consecutive term. Vučić won another five years as president, and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party appears positioned to form a majority-backed government. Putin congratulated them both.

A day before Hungary's election, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described Orbán as "virtually the only one in Europe to openly support" Putin. After the vote, Orbán said his "huge victory" was "visible even from the Moon, but certainly from Brussels."

In Serbia, Vučić has declined to join Europe's sanctions against Russia. He said Sunday that "the most important" for his country "is to have good relations in the region and to continue on its European path, without ruining its ties with traditional friends."

RUSSIA DRAFTS UNTRAINED FIGHTERS IN DONBAS: In the Donbas region of Ukraine, held by Moscow-backed separatists, Russia has drafted civilians to battle Ukrainian forces despite providing "no training, little food and water, and inadequate weapons" to the conscripts, per Reuters.

Several Donbas conscripts "have been issued with a rifle called a Mosin, which was developed in the late 19th century and went out of production decades ago," Reuters reports, and a student conscript described having to "drink water from a fetid pond because of lack of supplies."

In addition, some of the conscripts "were given the highly dangerous mission of drawing enemy fire onto themselves so other units could identify the Ukrainian positions and bomb them." Roughly 135 conscripts reportedly laid down their arms after being pushed to the war's front line near the port of Mariupol, and military commanders kept them in a basement as punishment.

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IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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Flashpoints

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — POSSIBLE TERRORISTS AT SOUTHERN BORDER: Two Turkish men with links to ISIS are trying to travel from Mexico to the United States, according to an intelligence product distributed by a regional intelligence-sharing hub based in El Paso, Texas.

The product, which was read to POLITICO, is titled, "BOLO - ISIS Terrorists Possible Attempt to Enter the United States." It's dated April 1, and says the two men are traveling from Cancún to Ciudad Juárez. From there, they plan to enter the U.S. through El Paso. The bulletin did not detail the nature of the intelligence nor specify how they may plan to enter the U.S. A fusion center headquartered in El Paso distributed the intelligence product to its law enforcement partners. Fusion centers are regional hubs for intelligence-sharing. They work with federal law enforcement officials but are controlled by state and local law enforcement.

Attempts by terrorists to enter the U.S. via the southern border are rare but not unheard of. Axios reported in March 2021 that Customs and Border Protection officials had arrested four people at the southern border since October 2020 who were on the FBI's Terrorist Screening Database. A CBP spokesperson told Voice of America that encounters with known and suspected terrorists at U.S. borders "are very uncommon."

News of El Paso's ISIS-related concerns come as Republicans have targeted the Biden administration over border security. The Biden administration is slowly rescinding a Trump-era policy — known as Title 42 — that let law enforcement officials quickly expel most migrants from the U.S. because of the coronavirus pandemic. Because of that change, the Department of Homeland Security says it is bracing for "a potential increase in the number of border encounters."

HONG KONG LEADER WON'T SEEK SECOND TERM: CARRIE LAM, Hong Kong's fourth chief executive, announced Monday that she won't pursue a second term, per The Associated Press' ZEN SOO and VINCENT YU. Her successor is set to be picked in an election on May 8.

"I will complete my five-year term as chief executive on the 30th of June this year, and I will also call an end to my 42 years of public service," Lam said at a news conference, adding that her decision was met with "respect and understanding" by the Chinese government when it was conveyed last year.

As the AP notes, Lam "presided over a period in which Beijing firmly established control over the former British colony that was returned to China in 1997." Lam's popularity sharply declined during her tenure, which saw "huge protests calling for her resignation, a security crackdown that has quashed dissent and most recently a COVID-19 wave that overwhelmed the health system."

Chief Secretary for Administration JOHN LEE , the city's second-ranking leader, is likely to enter the race to succeed Lam, according to Hong Kong media. Lee previously served as secretary of security, taking a tough stance against demonstrators during Hong Kong's 2019 protests.

POLITICAL TURMOIL IN PAKISTAN: Pakistan's Supreme Court adjourned Monday after hearing a challenge to Prime Minister IMRAN KHAN 's machinations to stay in power, and it plans to pick the case back up Tuesday, per The New York Times' CHRISTINA GOLDBAUM, SALMAN MASOOD and ZIA UR-REHMAN.

Khan declared the National Assembly dissolved Sunday when his allies blocked a no-confidence vote that he was likely to lose, prompting opposition leaders to bring the case to the court. Khan repeated his accusation Sunday that the U.S. government was acting in coordination with the opposition to oust him from office.

Keystrokes

UKRAINE WARNS AGAINST 'ARMAGEDDON' GROUP: The Ukrainian Computer Emergency Response Team warned Monday that a group Ukrainian authorities have previously attributed to Russia is targeting government agencies in Kyiv with malicious emails amid a steady increase of cyberattacks, reports our own MAGGIE MILLER.

According to UA-CERT, the effort involved a group known as UAC-0010, or Armageddon, sending emails with malicious links to government agencies masquerading as containing information on Russian war criminals. The Ukrainian Security Service last year attributed Armageddon to Russian intelligence efforts.

The effort is the latest in a string of Russian-linked cyberattacks against Ukrainian government agencies and critical infrastructure since the invasion began. These have included distributed denial of service attacks that temporarily took down Ukrainian government websites, with one attributed by the Biden administration to Russia in February. Ukrainian authorities announced last month that over 3,000 DDoS attacks had been directed against the nation since mid-February.

Last week, Ukrainian authorities confirmed that a "massive cyberattack" was launched against state-run telecommunications provider Ukrtelecom, with the confirmation coming days after The Washington Post reported that Russia was behind a cyberattack on satellite provider Viasat in February, which disrupted Ukrainian military communications. The stepped-up efforts prompted YURII SHCHYHOL , the chair of the Ukrainian cyber agency, to declare last week that "cyberwar is underway" during a press briefing.

The Ukrainian State Service of Special Communications said in a statement Monday that in the last week there has been an "increase in the number of cyberattacks on state information resources and objects of critical information infrastructure in Ukraine," with a top Ukrainian official scheduled to brief the press Tuesday morning on the latest intelligence.

 

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The Complex

INDO-PACOM'S $1.5 BILLION WISHLIST: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has outlined over $1.5 billion in needs that weren't included in the fiscal 2023 budget request, reports our own CONNOR O'BRIEN (for Pros!) The unfunded requirements list is one of several furnished to lawmakers by the military services and combatant commands as they weigh the Biden administration's budget request.

The list includes $643 million in operations and maintenance efforts. Another $496 million would go toward procurement and $322 million to research and development programs. The command also outlines just over $47 million in unfunded construction projects.

The Pacific region is a priority for the Pentagon and Congress as the U.S. looks to boost its presence to deter China — the "pacing threat" to U.S. national security. Indo-Pacom separately sent lawmakers a five-year, $76 billion plan to fund an array of missile defense systems, long-range precision weapons and new and upgraded airfields across the region.

On The Hill

ON RUSSIA, IT'S HOUSE VS. SENATE: House Democrats are growing frustrated with their Senate counterparts over the upper chamber's continued stalling on overwhelmingly bipartisan legislation to suspend normal trade relations with Russia. The House cleared the bill with a whopping 424 votes last month, but the Senate has been unable to come to an agreement for a quick vote. It takes consent from all 100 senators to speed up floor consideration, and Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER doesn't have time to jump through all of the necessary procedural hoops given the Supreme Court nomination votes this week.

"Nearly a month has passed since the House voted to ban the import of Russian energy products, and nearly three weeks have gone by since our chamber approved the suspension of normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus," House Ways and Means Chair RICHARD NEAL (D-Mass.) said in a statement. "The Senate must consider and pass this legislation before breaking for recess at the end of the week."

WHERE THINGS STAND… It's complicated. Senate leaders bowed to pressure from Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) to change the underlying bill's language related to Magnitsky Act sanctions for human rights abusers, and other senators have since piled on with their own demands. One of those is the establishment of a World War II-style lend-lease program for Ukraine, as our own ANDREW DESIDERIO detailed. Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) is pushing for a lend-lease provision to be added to the legislation, pointing to broad bipartisan support and a recognition by lawmakers in both parties that the U.S. will need to be in the Ukraine fight for the long-haul.

TRANSITIONS

— JENNIFER BACHUS, a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, starts work Monday as principal deputy assistant secretary for the State Department's newly created Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy. She will serve as senior bureau official until an ambassador-at-large is confirmed. Within the bureau's three policy units, MICHELE MARKOFF is serving as acting deputy assistant secretary for International Cyber Security, STEPHEN ANDERSON is serving as acting deputy assistant secretary for International Communications and Information Policy, and BLAKE PETERSON is serving as acting Digital Freedom coordinator.

— ROBERT GODEC has been announced as the president's pick to serve as ambassador to Thailand. He is a career member of the Senior Foreign Service with the rank of career minister, currently serving as senior coordinator for Afghanistan in the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration.

— FAREED YASSEEN is leaving as Iraq's ambassador to the United States at the end of this week after a more than five-year tour in Washington. He is the former Iraqi ambassador to France and was trained as a physicist before entering political activism and human rights advocacy. Prior to joining the Iraqi government, he had also worked at the UN Climate Change Secretariat where he was in charge of their information unit.

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What to Read

— TOM McTAGUE, The Atlantic: "The West's World War II Moment"

— The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: " Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change"

— RACHEL LANCE, Wired: "How Explosions Actually Kill"

Tomorrow Today

— Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN travels to Brussels: He will attend the NATO Foreign Ministerial, join a G-7 ministerial meeting and hold additional discussions with other allies and partners, per the State Department.

— The Johns Hopkins University, 9 a.m.: " Germany and the United States: What's Next for the Transatlantic Alliance? — with EMILY HABER and JIM STEINBERG"

— Washington Post Live, 9 a.m.: "World Stage: Ukraine with ALEX BORNYAKOV — with CAT ZAKRZEWSKI"

— The Wilson Center, 9 a.m.: "Refugee Women's Inclusion in Peace Agreements and Peacebuilding in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities — with MEGAN CORRADO, VERNELLE FITZPATRICK, ALYSON GRUNDER, CATHARINE HELMERS and SANDRA TUMWESIGYE"

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:15 a.m.: "U.S.-Indo-Pacific Conference — with MELISSA BROWN, KURT CAMPBELL, DEREK MITCHELL, TED OSIUS, GREGORY POLING and more"

— House Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Defense Budget Request — with LLOYD AUSTIN and MARK MILLEY"

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: The Posture of United States Special Operations Command and United States Cyber Command in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2023 and the Future Years Defense Program — with RICHARD CLARKE, CHRISTOPHER MAIER and PAUL NAKASONE"

— The United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: "A Conversation with Bangladeshi Foreign Minister H.E. AK ABDUL MOMEN — with LISE GRANDE and TERESITA SCHAFFER"

— Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 10 a.m.: "Disrupting China's Military-Academic Complex — with BONNIE GLICK, PHELIM KINE, MARK MONTGOMERY, ANNA PUGLISI, MARCO RUBIO and CRAIG SINGLETON"

— House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: United States Strategic Command — with CHARLES A. RICHARD"

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Markup of Various Measures"

— House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Mobilizing Our Cyber Defenses: Securing Critical Infrastructure Against Russian Cyber Threats — with ADAM MEYERS, KEVIN M. MORLEY, STEVE SILBERSTEIN and AMIT YORAN"

— House Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Enhancing the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938 — with DYLAN HEDTLER-GAUDETTE, NICK ROBINSON, JACOB R. STRAUS and JONATHAN TURLEY" 

— House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, 10 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Markup of Various Measures"

— House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, 10 a.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: FEMA Priorities for 2022 and the 2022-2026 Strategic Plan"

— The Space Foundation, 10 a.m.: " 37th Space Symposium — with STACEY DIXON, FRANK KENDALL, PAM MELROY, JOHN RAYMOND, KELLI SEYBOLT and more"

— The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: "The Future of Syria: ISIS, the Iranians, and the Displaced Millions — with OULA ALRIFAI, JAMES F. JEFFREY, MERISSA KHURMA, DANA STROUL and JOBY WARRICK"

— The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 11:30 a.m.: "Getting Off Russian Gas: Implications for Germany and Europe — with SUDHA DAVID-WILP, VERONIKA GRIMM and JACOB KIRKEGAARD"

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: "A New Era for Europe? A Conversation with REINHARD BÜTIKOFER — with KENNETH R. WEINSTEIN"

— The National Academy of Public Administration and the Florida Center for Cybersecurity, 12 p.m.: "Expanding the Nation's Cybersecurity Workforce: A National Imperative — with ALISSA ABDULLAH, DIANA BURLEY, TONY COULSON, CHARLES ROMINE, RON SANDERS and COSTIS TOREGAS"

— New America, 12 p.m.: "America's Endless Counterterrorism War in Yemen: A Strategic Assessment — with PETER BERGEN , GREGORY JOHNSEN, ALEXANDRA STARK and DAVID STERMAN"

— The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: "A Conversation With Founder of the Open Russia Movement MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY — with JOHN E. HERBST"

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: "Securing Asia's Subsea Network — with CATHERINE CREESE, MATTHEW P. GOODMAN, JOHN MELICK, MAUREEN RUSSELL and TIM STRONGE"

— The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 1 p.m.: "Internet Governance During Times of War and Conflict — with FIONA ALEXANDER, FARZANEH BADII, DANIEL CASTRO, STEVEN FELDSTEIN and MALLORY KNODEL"

— House Judiciary Committee, 2 p.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Markup of Various Measures"

— The United States Institute of Peace, 2 p.m.: "What Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Means for the Indo-Pacific — with AMI BERA, STEVE CHABOT and LISE GRANDE"

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 2:30 p.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Training the Next Generation of Cyber Operators — with STEPHEN FOGARTY, TIMOTHY HAUGH, RYAN HERITAGE, KEVIN KENNEDY and ROSS MYERS"

— House Armed Services Committee, 3 p.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Operations in Cyberspace and Building Cyber Capabilities Across the Department of Defense — with PAUL NAKASONE and JOHN F. PLUMB"

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor Ben Pauker, who considers every one of our jokes in this addendum a crime against humanity.

 

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