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| Presented By Babbel |
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| Axios World |
| By Dave Lawler ·Apr 04, 2022 |
| Welcome back to Axios World. - It's the fourth anniversary of this newsletter, which means I've sent around 400 of these things. The fact that so many of you read and engage (very kindly) each week makes me feel a bit better about the world, even if the news is grim.
- And on that note… today's edition (1,805 words, 7 minutes) starts in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Situational awareness: Volodymyr Zelensky will address the UN Security Council on Tuesday, per the U.K., which will chair the session. New arrival? Subscribe. |
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| 1 big thing: Bucha horror makes West reconsider options to hit Putin |
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| Zelensky examines the destruction in Bucha. Photo: Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty |
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| U.S. and European leaders today promised to respond to the discoveries of mass graves and other apparent atrocities in suburban Kyiv with harsher penalties for Vladimir Putin. Why it matters: Western sanctions and arms shipments came in hard and fast after the invasion, with two key constraints: Europe's reliance on Russian energy and the unwillingness of NATO countries to risk war beyond Ukraine's borders. Their calculations may now be shifting, if only slightly. Driving the news: National security adviser Jake Sullivan said this afternoon that the U.S. will impose fresh sanctions after the discovery of what he described as war crimes in Bucha. Ukrainian troops retaking the city near Kyiv found civilians with their hands bound who had apparently been shot at close range. - Sullivan claimed that was not anomalous but "part of the plan" for a Russian regime intent on imposing "a reign of terror across occupied territories in Ukraine."
- Russia is pulling back from its positions near the Ukrainian capital. Sullivan said Russia was shifting its focus and its troops to the east, hoping to "surround and overwhelm Ukrainian forces" there.
- Russian officials and state media have denied responsibility for the Bucha massacre and in some cases accused Ukraine of carrying it out (claims which are undermined by witnesses, journalists and satellite imagery).
Between the lines: The U.S. has already hit many of the obvious targets for sanctions, but steps such as removing all Russian banks from the SWIFT transaction system or enforcing secondary sanctions on oil exports are still possible. French President Emmanuel Macron came out today in favor of new sanctions on Russian oil and coal — but he didn't mention Russian gas, which accounts for 40% of Europe's supply, Axios' Zach Basu reports. - EU countries have paid Russia more than $20 billion for fossil fuels since the invasion began, and Russia is projected to earn $320.7 billion from energy exports this year — up 36% from 2021, per Bloomberg.
- Momentum for a sanctions package that would ban oil and coal imports is growing, but European officials — including within Germany's government — took contrasting positions today on whether now is the moment to take a hard line on gas.
- Lithuania is moving forward on its own, becoming the first EU country to fully cease importing Russian gas.
More U.S. weapons, including drones and armored vehicles, are also on their way as part of a package announced Friday. Sullivan said further shipments would be announced soon. - NATO countries are showing increasing willingness to provide weapons that could allow Ukraine to go on the offensive, reportedly including tanks.
- But they have yet to provide the types of aircraft and air defense systems that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been publicly lobbying for. A plan to send S-300 missile defense systems from Slovakia to Ukraine appears to have hit a snag.
President Biden said today that, in addition to providing Ukraine with weapons to continue its fight, it would also help document evidence for a future war crimes trial against Vladimir Putin. - Former International Criminal Court prosecutor Alex Whiting told Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath that there is clear evidence of war crimes in Bucha, but "the challenge is going to be to prove who was responsible, and how high does this go?"
- Whiting said it would be crucial to have investigators on the ground as soon as possible to talk to witnesses to try to determine which units were involved and who gave the orders.
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| 2. Global democracy roundup |
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| Election posters in Paris. Photo: Chesnot/Getty |
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| 1. The first round of France's presidential election is on Sunday, and while President Emmanuel Macron is expected to finish first, his lead in a likely runoff rematch against Marine Le Pen on April 24 has narrowed to just 3 points, according to a new Harris Interactive poll. - State of play: In mid-March, when all eyes were on Ukraine and Macron was playing the statesman, he led Le Pen by as many as 18 points. With the debate now centering on domestic issues like pensions, three other recent polls showed him winning by just 6%.
2. Two of Europe's authoritarian-leaning strongmen won crushing victories on Sunday, with Serbia President Aleksandar Vučić gaining a second term and Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán a fifth (and fourth successive). - What he's saying: "We will remember this victory until the end of our lives because we had to fight against a huge amount of opponents," Orbán said, naming the Hungarian left, Brussels "bureaucrats," the international media, "and the Ukrainian president too."
3. Costa Rica elected right-wing former Finance Minister Rodrigo Chaves, who campaigned as an anti-establishment maverick, as president on Sunday. 4. Carrie Lam today announced she will not seek a second term as leader of Hong Kong after five years overseeing the demise of the city's autonomy. - What's next: John Lee, a former police official and Hong Kong's second-ranking leader, is likely to be Beijing's pick to replace Lam, per the BBC.
5. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is following through on a campaign pledge to hold a recall election halfway through his six-year term. 6. Tunisian President Kais Saied dissolved parliament after it voted to unwind aspects of his power grab last July. - What to watch: A country that had been viewed as the lone democratic success story from the Arab Spring is moving toward one-man rule.
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| 3. Pakistan's Supreme Court debates Khan's surprise election call |
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| Catching up on a crazy news cycle in Islamabad. Photo: Aamir Qureshi/AFP via Getty |
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| Pakistan's Supreme Court today heard a challenge to Prime Minister Imran Khan's surprise move to suspend parliament and call for elections before he could be removed from power via a no-confidence vote. The hearing will continue tomorrow. Why it matters: Khan's move to thwart the bid to remove him — which was thought to be backed by the powerful security elites who helped put him in power — has sparked a constitutional crisis and highlighted the country's messy relationship with the United States. - Khan has accused the U.S. of conspiring with the opposition to remove him, without providing evidence.
- He has also called on his highly enthusiastic supporters to take to the streets, and he claimed the opposition is afraid to face him at the ballot box.
The latest: Khan named a former chief justice as caretaker prime minister today as part of an attempt to solidify the move toward early elections before the Supreme Court rules. - In the packed courtroom today… "The justices' tone suggested that despite many constitutional experts' views that the court would likely rule in favor of the opposition, the verdict was far from settled," the NYT reports.
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| A message from Babbel |
| Learning language requires variety |
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| Everyone learns differently. Babbel offers a variety of study options so you can start speaking a new language in just three weeks. Find what works best for you — whether that's Babbel's lessons, games, videos, podcasts or live sessions. Get started now for up to 60% off your subscription. |
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| Bonus: Where in the world? |
| Today we're visiting countries sandwiched between continental giants. Can you name the... - A) Four countries that border China and India.
- B) Three countries that border Argentina and Brazil.
- C) Two countries with a pop. over 1 million that border France and Germany (sorry Luxembourg).
- D) One country that borders Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Scroll to the bottom for the answers. |
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| 4. Protests rage as Sri Lanka faces worst economic crisis in decades |
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| Protests this evening in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Photo: Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty |
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| Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is scrambling to stabilize his government and curtail protests over the country's economic crisis, which has led to power cuts and shortages of essential goods. Driving the news: Rajapaksa has invited opposition parties into the Cabinet in an effort to form a unity government. His government also imposed a curfew and blocked social media sites in a largely unsuccessful attempt to quell the protests. - The Cabinet resigned, except for Mahinda Rajapaksa, the president's brother and one of his presidential predecessors. Governance in Sri Lanka has largely been a family affair since Gotabaya Rajapaksa took office in 2019.
- Among the 26 Cabinet members who resigned were three more Rajapaskas, including the finance minister (another brother, Basil).
Breaking it down: The government lacks sufficient foreign reserves to pay for fuel and other key imports. - Per Reuters, longer-term causes include economic mismanagement across multiple administrations, a COVID-induced hit to tourism and remittances, and unaffordable tax cuts passed in 2019.
- Sri Lanka devalued its currency earlier this month before seeking a loan program from the IMF, sending inflation climbing.
- The government is now also seeking economic help from China and India.
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| 5. Taliban bans opium production |
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| A farmer is seen at a poppy field in Kandahar, Afghanistan, on March 17. Photo: Mohammad Noori/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images |
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| The Taliban on Sunday announced a ban on opium poppy production, warning that any farmers caught continuing the harvest would be jailed and have their crops burned. Why it matters: Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of opium, which has in the past provided a crucial revenue stream for the Taliban and for impoverished farmers. - A 2017 UN survey found that poppy cultivation covered 320,000 hectares throughout the country, an area about the size of Rhode Island.
- Last year's record yield was larger than all other opium-producing countries combined.
Flashback: The Taliban outlawed poppy production in the late 1990s and the ban was enforced nationwide within two years, but production resumed after the group's ouster, per AP. |
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| 6. World of sports: World Cup countdown |
 Data: FIFA; Table: Thomas Oide/Axios The groups are set for the 2022 World Cup, which will kick off on Nov. 21 in Qatar. - Each team will play the three fellow members of its group, with the top two teams advancing to the knockout round. Three slots are still up for grabs via playoff rounds.
- The hosts qualify automatically, so Qatar will be competing for the first time after being controversially awarded the tournament (which had to be moved to late fall to avoid the summer heat).
- Canada qualified for the second time ever and first since 1986 after winning North American qualifying, while reigning European champions Italy will be stuck at home.
Worthy of your time: Axios' Fadel Allassan took a look at how the English Premier League ended up with owners like Roman Abramovich and (de facto owner) Mohammed bin Salman. |
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| 7. Stories we're watching |
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| The first day of Ramadan in Yangon, Myanmar. Photo: Ye Aung Thu/AFP via Getty |
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- Ramadan begins amid rising food prices
- Poll: Putin approval at 83%
- Russia threatens to end cooperation with International Space Station
- Documentary filmmaker killed in Ukraine
- U.N. climate panel issues blueprint for limiting global warming
- Taliban releases American aid worker detained in Afghanistan
- Europe's new digital rules are giving tech leaders nightmares
Quoted: "I feel shame — sorrow and shame — for the role [the Catholic church played] in the abuses you suffered and in the lack of respect shown for your identity, your culture and even your spiritual values." — Pope Francis apologizing for the treatment of Indigenous children in schools in Canada |
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| A message from Babbel |
| Speak a new language in three weeks |
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| Babbel's language lessons were created by real language experts — not AI like other apps. The impact: Users report that they can hold a basic conversation in just three weeks of practice. For a limited time, try Babbel and get up to 60% off your subscription. |
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| Answers: - A) Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan
- B) Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay
- C) Belgium, Switzerland
- D) Iraq
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 | It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | |
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