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| Presented By Bank of America |
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| Axios AM |
| By Mike Allen · Apr 19, 2022 |
| Happy Tuesday. Today's Smart Brevity™ count: 1,173 words ... 4½ mins. Edited by Zachary Basu. |
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| 1 big thing: Democrats' worst Trump nightmare |
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| Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios |
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| There's something much worse than losing the House, and possibly the Senate, that's rattling top Democrats who are studying polling and election trends: - It's the possibility of a re-elected President Trump with a compliant, veto-proof Senate majority in January 2025.
Why it matters: It's impossible to forecast elections. But you can look at the states with Senate elections in 2024 and see why some Democrats are sounding the alarm. "Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster," Yale's Simon Bazelon wrote last week on Matt Yglesias' Substack, Slow Boring - "The 2024 map is much worse," Bazelon added.
- A close presidential election, he wrote, could doom Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana ... Joe Manchin in West Virginia ... Sherrod Brown in Ohio ... Bob Casey in Pennsylvania ... Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin ... Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.
- Plus toss-ups could threaten Sens. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Jackie Rosen in Nevada.
- In all those states, hardcore liberalism is a tough sell.
Then factor in that most of the GOP senators who stood up to Trump and his brand of politics will be gone: Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who are retiring after this term, and former Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona. - Now toss in the widespread belief in both parties that the House majority will be lost by Democrats in 2022 — and maintained, if not expanded, in 2024.
- Plus perhaps the most worrisome indicator for Democrats on the political dashboard: The party's edge with Hispanic voters has shrunk.
So you see why John Anzalone, President Biden's campaign pollster, recently told a Politico podcast this is "the worst political environment that I've lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant." There are several ways Democrats could overcome the GOP's map edge: - Dems could nominate a presidential candidate who wins decisively — with a clear majority. That typically lifts party candidates in close races.
- Or the GOP could nominate a presidential candidate who can't command a majority, or unelectable Senate candidates. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell warns anyone who'll listen that if the GOP keeps putting up fringe candidates, the party will blow an epic opportunity.
The bottom line: David Shor, one of Democrats' most respected data scientists, has been sounding the alarm for months. "Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition," he tweeted, the 2024 outcome could be "Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* [House, Senate, White House] with a minority of the vote." |
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| 2. Breaking: Russia declares "next phase" |
| Russian military vehicles move on a highway in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces near Mariupol, Ukraine, yesterday. Photo: Alexei Alexandrov/AP The "next phase" of Russia's so-called "special military operation" has begun, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said this morning, confirming Ukrainian reports of a large-scale offensive underway across the eastern Donbas region. - ⚡ President Biden will hold a call this morning with G7, NATO and EU leaders to discuss how the West should respond to the "Battle for Donbas," including Ukraine's pleas for heavy weaponry that will be critical to the decisive second phase of the war.
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| 3. 🇺🇦 Coming home: Drone's-eye view |
| Photo: John Moore/Getty Images In this image taken from a drone, people walk outside a destroyed home in the Kyiv suburb of Irpin, Ukraine, yesterday. Photo: Alexey Furman/Getty Images Heartened by Russia's withdrawal from the capital region, residents last week began returning to what's left. Keep reading. |
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| A message from Bank of America |
| Make everything recyclable |
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| TerraCycle has recycled more than 7.7 billion items since its founding in 2001. Its philosophy? "Everything can be recycled in the end." This Bank of America partner is working to ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns, in line with UN Sustainable Development Goal 12. See how. |
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| 4. ✈️ Wheels up, masks off! |
| Whoops erupted on a United flight from Houston to LAX last evening as the captain announced the mask mandate was lifted. - Landing at JFK, the Hilton Head crowd on a Delta flight from Savannah clapped and danced in the aisles as they disembarked, after a flight attendant came on to announce the "good news" that masks were now optional.
Following a ruling by a federal judge in Florida, the Biden administration told reporters at 5:57 p.m. ET: "CDC's public transportation masking order is not in effect at this time." - The four biggest U.S. airlines dropped mask requirements within hours.
🚇 D.C.'s Metro said masks are now optional. The New York subway still requires them. - Go deeper on the new mishmash of transportation rules.
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| 5. Charted: America's silent billionaires |
 Data: Keyhole, Forbes. Chart: Will Chase/Axios While Elon Musk tries to bend the world to his vision, most of America's wealthiest try to fly below the media radar, Axios' Neal Rothschild and Sara Fischer write. - Why it matters: America's corporate titans have long been household names. Musk, along with Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, have hit a new level of superstardom by embarking on pursuits beyond their cash cows.
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| 6. First look — Sen. Tim Scott: Don't teach kids they're "oppressors" |
| Sen. Tim Scott walks through the Capitol last year. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) will use the stage at the Reagan Library in California tonight to slam public schools for "teaching kids that they are oppressors" and appeal to gig workers including ride-share drivers and food deliverers, Axios' Russell Contreras writes. - As part of the library's "A Time for Choosing" speaker series, Scott will say he's proof of conservatism lifting Americans of color — and bash President Biden and Democrats on inflation and national security.
Why it matters: Scott, the only Black Republican in the U.S. Senate, is often mentioned as a prospective 2024 presidential candidate — and is on just about every GOP hopeful's short list for VP. - He's also active in GOP efforts to attract more voters of color to the party.
"Parents have a right to know what their kids are being taught in the classroom," Scott says in prepared remarks. "[T]eaching kids that they are oppressors is just as bad as teaching kids they are always going to be victims." - Scott will take a swipe at the N.Y. Times' "1619 Project" as detracting from the positive story of American history.
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| 7. 🇨🇳 China economy downshifts |
 Data: FactSet, National Bureau of Statistics of China. Chart: Axios Visuals A slew of Chinese economic data out yesterday confirmed the world's second-largest economy has sputtered amid lockdowns to enforce the regime's zero-COVID policy, Matt Phillips and Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian write in Axios Markets. - Why it matters: China is the largest single driver of global economic growth.
What's happening: Retail sales tumbled in March ... The unemployment rate rose to 5.8% ... Industrial production slowed sharply, as did investment in the domestic real estate sector, a key growth driver. |
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| 8. Inside D.C.'s Mormon Temple |
| The temple's Baptistry. Photo: Intellectual Reserve Inc. If you've driven the northern end of the Capital Beltway (or listened to a D.C. traffic report), you've probably wondered what's inside the golden-spired Mormon Temple, Axios D.C.'s Paige Hopkins writes. - For the first time in 48 years, people who aren't in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints can enter the sacred space in Kensington, Md. (Montgomery County).
What's happening: When a temple is renovated, it's open for tours before being rededicated. - After being closed for a makeover for the past four years, the six-spired Washington D.C. Temple will hold an open house beginning April 28, before being rededicated Aug. 14.
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) joined church leaders for a media tour yesterday. Photo: Intellectual Reserve Inc. Above: The Sealing Room, where couples get married. Photo: Intellectual Reserve Inc. Above: The Bride's Room features cherry-blossom carpeting. |
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| A message from Bank of America |
| Sustainable production patterns in action |
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| "Our mission is not just to manage waste, but to eliminate the idea of waste." CEO of TerraCycle Tom Szaky explains how, with Bank of America's support, the company is reducing waste by making more kinds of products recyclable, and devising ways to integrate recycled materials into new products. |
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