News: What Zelenskyy wants vs. what he'll get

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

What Zelenskyy wants vs. what he'll get

Mar 16, 2022

View in browser

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

Presented by

Listen to today's Daily Briefing

DRIVING THE DAY

ZELENSKYY SPEAKS — Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY will address Congress virtually at 9 a.m. today.

The headlines will likely focus on the red lines that President JOE BIDEN won't cross: Zelenskyy's request for a no-fly zone and the transfer of Polish MiGs.

But the debate has shifted.

WHAT ZELENSKYY WILL SAY — Betsy Woodruff Swan interviews DANIEL VAJDICH, a longtime lobbyist for Ukrainian interests, who says "he has consulted with Zelenskyy's advisers about the speech."

"Zelenskyy is going to express gratitude to the U.S. for what it's done to support Ukraine and punish Russia, but he's also going to name and shame, or at least shame, and rightly so," he tells Betsy.

More from Vajdich: "Those in the Biden administration who advocated for minimizing security assistance to Ukraine before the invasion were wrong then and they're wrong now in refusing to provide the Ukrainians with the support they need … Without naming anyone explicitly, Zelenskyy will call on these people to wake up before it's too late." For more from Vajdich, listen to our interview on the latest episode of "Playbook Deep Dive"

The White House reacted a bit testily to Vajdich's preview. "We have no idea what this quote is referencing," NSC spokeswoman EMILY HORNE said. "The fact is President Biden authorized a record amount of security assistance over the past year to Ukraine, $1.2 billion, including $650 million before Russia's invasion."

Shortly after Betsy's piece went live, the WSJ reported that Biden would announce another $1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine today after Zelenskyy speaks. But the devil will be in the details.

— First, the $1 billion figure includes $200 million in previously appropriated funds that Biden already announced over the weekend, and $800 million in new funds from the $13.6 billion aid package signed into law on Tuesday. But that $13.6 billion figure is a bit misleading. According to a House of Representatives fact sheet, only $3.5 billion of it is for military aid to Ukraine ("to replenish U.S. stocks of equipment sent to Ukraine through drawdown").

— Second, the debate over a no-fly zone and Polish MiGs has obscured the fact that the real fight in Congress is now over whether to facilitate the transfer to Ukraine of long range surface to-air-missiles, such as S-300s, which three NATO countries — Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia — all have.

There is nothing Zelenskyy can say today that will change Biden's mind about a no-fly zone or the transfer of the Polish MiGs — administration officials repeatedly emphasized that point on Tuesday. But there is increasing pressure on Biden to help beef up Ukrainian air defenses beyond Stingers and Javelins, and behind the scenes, Zelenskyy's wish list is more realistic than his public remarks have suggested.

— The NYT reports : "Ukrainian officials plan to present the United States with a list of military equipment they need, including armed drones and mobile air-defense systems, as Mr. Zelenskyy addresses Congress, according to two European diplomats briefed on the request. Beyond the MIG fighter planes, Ukrainian officials have crafted a list of additional matériel the Biden administration might be more willing to give, one of the diplomats said."

— Other items on the list, per the Times: more Stingers and Javelins, "long-range, anti-ship missiles, improved satellite navigation technology, tactical military radios, communications jamming equipment and other electronic warfare equipment."

BUT HE STILL MAY SHAME BIDEN A BIT — Zelenskyy addressed the U.K. parliament last week and the Canadian parliament Tuesday. His approach is to prick the conscience of his audience by bringing the horror of the war home to his audience and asking them to imagine Russian bombs striking famous monuments, like the CN Tower in Toronto, and then shaming leaders for expressing solidarity with Ukraine without fufilling his most urgent requests.

Here's how he did it with Canadian PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU on Tuesday :

"I know that you support Ukraine, sincerely, effectively. We are friends with Justin. But I want you to understand me, and to feel it. Feel what we feel. Feel how we want to live. And how we want to win. Win for life.

"I want you to feel what it's like when you call your friends and say: 'Close the sky, stop the shelling. No matter which way, just do it. Stop the bombing. How many more missiles must fall on our cities?' And in response, you hear that someone does not want to do it ... But they are deeply concerned!"

"'Then give us planes,' we tell our partners. They answer: 'Soon. Be patient a little.' Everyone is deeply concerned. They just don't want to."

A message from PhRMA:

ICYMI: A majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation" once they learn it could restrict access and choice and chill the innovation of new treatments and cures. The survey also shows a majority find health care coverage costs unreasonable and a top priority health care issue for policymakers to address today.

HOW ZELENSKYY CONQUERED CONGRESS — Andrew Desiderio traces the history of Zelenskyy's three-year effort lobbying Congress. Before the war, his efforts were a bit clumsy, and he ran afoul of the Biden administration when he backed Sen. TED CRUZ's (R-Texas) legislation to sanction the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Since the war, lawmakers have tripped over each other to satisfy Zelenskyy's requests, and Biden has generally followed along:

"Through his private Zoom meetings with lawmakers and his dramatic public pleas, Zelenskyy got Capitol Hill on board for additional military assistance and a ban on Russian oil imports within days — unheard-of speed for Congress."

— Said Sen. JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.): "It does seem to me that the administration has to be dragged along and pushed to do the right thing … Zelenskyy's courageous leadership is making a significant difference."

More on Ukraine:

— Dan Balz calls Zelenskyy "a beacon to the world, a wartime leader rallying his country, a symbol of courage in the face of personal danger, a politician who has shown anew the power of words and language."

— Bret Stephens argues : "Arming Ukraine with Javelin and Stinger missiles has wounded and embarrassed the Russian military. Providing Kyiv with MIG-29 fighter jets and other potentially game-changing weapon systems could help turn the tide. Refusing to do so may only prolong Ukraine's agony."

— Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told NPR in an interview that just posted "that U.S. sanctions against Russia are 'not designed to be permanent,' and that they could 'go away' if Russia should change its behavior. But he said any Russian pullback would have to be, 'in effect, irreversible.'"

— David Ignatius has an important piece about the diplomatic track that includes this revelation: "Diplomats have been working overtime this past week to craft a formula for a neutral Ukraine on the model of Austria, whose security would be guaranteed by Germany, France, Russia, the United States and perhaps other nations. This formula would reflect a major concession by Putin, but it could also diminish the heroic status of President Volodymyr Zelensky. Many Ukrainians would argue that their people didn't fight and die to achieve neutrality."

— The latest intelligence update from the U.K. government, posted early this morning, says "Russian forces are struggling to overcome the challenges posed by Ukraine's terrain." On the ground Russian vehicles don't often venture off-road, and in the skies "Russia's continued failure to gain control of the air has drastically limited their ability to effectively use air manoeuvre, further limiting their options."

— Fox News mourned the death of two beloved colleagues covering the war in Ukraine: Pierre Zakrzewski, a cameraman, and Oleksandra "Sasha" Kuvshynova, a consultant who was 24 years old.

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A message from PhRMA:

ICYMI: Majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation" once they learn it could restrict access and choice and chill the innovation of new treatments and cures.

BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:

— 9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 11:45 a.m.: Biden will speak about U.S. assistance to Ukraine, with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Deputy Secretary of Defense KATHLEEN HICKS and the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY in attendance.

— 1:45 p.m.: Biden will speak at an event celebrating the Violence Against Women Act reauthorization, with A.G. MERRICK GARLAND and HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA in attendance.

— 7:45 p.m.: Biden will speak at the Ireland Funds 30th national gala at the National Building Museum.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' WEDNESDAY — The VP will speak about "making communities safer, including on the campuses of Historically Black Colleges and Universities," at 3 p.m., with Garland and Education Secretary MIGUEL CARDONA also speaking.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. CAROLE KING will be among those testifying before an Oversight subcommittee at 10 a.m. on forest management and wildfires.

THE SENATE is in.

WIN A VIP TICKET TO THE GREATEST POLITICAL SHOW ON EARTH! POLITICO and SHOWTIME are teaming up for an evening of cocktails and conversation featuring the POLITICO Playbook team and Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri from "The Circus" on Showtime in Washington, D.C. Enter for a chance to win a ticket to join fellow Playbookers and newsmakers at this exclusive, VIP event by Friday, March 18th. Winners will be notified on that date (travel and accommodations not provided, this is a widely attended event pursuant to House & Senate ethics rules). ENTER HERE.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

President Joe Biden is pictured standing at his desk, surrounded by elected officials. | Getty Images

President Joe Biden is applauded by VP Kamala Harris and members of Congress after signing the "Consolidated Appropriations Act" in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on Tuesday, March 15. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

POLL: 'DON'T SAY GAY' BILL HAS SLIM MAJORITY SUPPORT — Gary Fineout dives into more results from the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, finding that nationwide, "American voters are sharply divided over two contentious bills Florida's state Legislature recently passed that deal with the teaching of race and gender identity."

— On Florida's "Parental Rights in Education" legislation, which opponents have dubbed the "Don't Say Gay" bill: "A slim majority of U.S. voters who were polled — 51 percent — support 'banning the teaching of sexual orientation and gender identity from kindergarten through third grade,' while 35 percent are opposed … The GOP-backed measure has garnered national attention and condemnation from LGBTQ supporters, including President Joe Biden, with opponents saying it could further marginalize some students and lead to bullying and even suicide."

— On banning "critical race theory" from schools: National respondents were split — 40% supported a ban, while 43% opposed it. The poll also asked whether "parents should be allowed to sue school districts if they allowed critical race theory to be taught in schools, an idea first touted by [Gov. RON] DESANTIS but that was not included in the final bill. … Forty-five percent of those who responded were opposed to letting parents sue, while 36 percent supported the idea."

— Related op-ed: "I object to Florida's 'Don't Say Gay' bill as a lesbian mom — and as a conservative," by Sarah Longwell in WaPo

ALL POLITICS

THE MODERATE SQUEEZE — The Arizona Coalition to End the Filibuster, which helped push EMILY's List to drop its support of Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.), is now pressuring the Human Rights Campaign to do the same, Holly Otterbein scoops this morning. The open letter from "more than 100 Arizona-based LGBTQ activists and national supporters … charges that Sinema's position on the filibuster is preventing the Equality Act from passing." It also advocates for HRC donors to stop giving to the organization until it cuts ties with Sinema. The letter

OHIO'S GIBBONS USED OFFENSIVE STEREOTYPES — NYT's Blake Hounshell and Leah Askarinam scoop that MIKE GIBBONS, who is leading in the crowded Ohio GOP Senate primary, "employed offensive stereotypes about Asian people in a 2013 podcast, citing a widely discredited book, 'The Bell Curve,' that has drawn allegations of racism and sloppy research."

— What he said, per the story: "I've often thought that when I've run into Asians they're all — you know, if you've ever read 'The Bell Curve' … And it said that the smartest people in the world as far as measurable I.Q. were Ashkenazi Jews. And then right below them was basically everybody in China, India and, you know, throughout the Asian countries."

"About a minute later, Gibbons … described being in a class with 'mostly Asians' during graduate school. 'It was astounding to me how much they studied, how they were incredibly bright, but they memorized formulas,' Gibbons said. 'And when we ran into a word problem — and you know, I think this is a function of the educational track they put them on — they got lost in the weeds.' As the discussion continued, his co-host asserted that the Chinese education system did a poor job of teaching critical thinking. 'They're very good at copying,' Gibbons added."

Speaking of headaches for RICK SCOTT …

WALKER QUESTIONS EVOLUTION, IVF — During an appearance Sunday at Georgia's Sugar Hill Church, GOP Senate candidate HERSCHEL WALKER expressed doubt about the theory of evolution, reports HuffPost's Amanda Terkel : "At one time, science said man came from apes, did it not?" Walker said. "If that is true, why are there still apes? Think about it."

In the same conversation, Walker "also appeared to question in vitro fertilization and other forms of assisted reproductive technology," per WaPo's Felicia Sonmez. "'And then, the conception of a baby,' Walker said. 'Let me tell you, science can't do that. They're still trying to do it, but they can't, because there has to be a God.'"

— Why it's important: These sorts of comments may play well with evangelical portions of the GOP base. But what about the swing voters Republicans need to take back Georgia, a state they're depending on to win the Senate majority? The remarks are also a distraction from the issues Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL wants Republicans to focus on, like inflation, gas prices and crime.

A message from PhRMA:

ICYMI: Majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation".

CONGRESS

PANDEMIC SPLIT SCREEN — Days after returning from their caucus-wide retreat, nine House Democrats have tested positive for the coronavirus — a number that's probably only going to increase. They are: Reps. JARED GOLDEN (Maine), MADELEINE DEAN (Pa.), KIMBERLY SCHRIER (Wash.), ZOE LOFGREN (Calif.), ROSA DELAURO (Conn.), GERRY CONNOLLY (Va.), ANDY KIM (N.J.), JOE NEGUSE (N.Y.) and PETER WELCH (Vt.).

— The timing: As our Nancy Vu and Sarah Ferris write for Congress Minutes , this mini-outbreak comes about two weeks after Democrats moved to eliminate the Capitol's mask mandate, which itself followed a party-wide decision to separate themselves from politically unpopular pandemic mandates.

But don't expect this to trigger a reversal of the new Democratic position on masks.

On Tuesday, the Senate passed a RAND PAUL -sponsored bill repealing federal travel mask mandates. Eight Senate Dems — including several up for reelection this fall — voted with the GOP: MICHAEL BENNET (Colo.), CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (Nev.), MAGGIE HASSAN (N.H.), MARK KELLY (Ariz.), JOE MANCHIN (W.Va.), JACKY ROSEN (Nev.), Sinema and JON TESTER (Mont.). Utah Republican MITT ROMNEY was the sole GOP vote against it. (This won't move in the House, but it suggests where the politics are right now.)

Meanwhile, "the White House announced on Tuesday that public tours would resume in April, after being suspended at the start of the pandemic," write NYT's Emily Cochrane and Anushka Patil.

SPEAKING OF COVID — The standoff between the White House and Congress over the administration's request for more Covid relief money continues, and NYT's Sheryl Gay Stolberghas a good recap of the latest. "The impasse is a major change in Washington's approach to the two-year-old pandemic," she writes. "Until now, both the Trump and Biden administrations have been able to secure emergency money for coronavirus relief with no strings attached. But most Republicans in Congress say they will not approve another aid package unless the White House finds a way to pay for it."

— Nugget: As the House moves forward trying to pass their own version of this funding, we're told that House Minority Whip STEVE SCALISE (R-La.) is gearing up to whip Republican members against this legislation. That means Democrats will be on their own.

NOMINATION WOES? — Biden got his (runner-up) pick for OMB director: On Tuesday, the Senate voted to confirm SHALANDA YOUNG to run the budget agency after NEERA TANDEN pulled out last year. But the White House has otherwise had a hard week with its nominees.

— On Tuesday, SARAH BLOOM RASKIN withdrew her nomination to be the Federal Reserve's top Wall Street watchdog "amid a clash over her climate views, ending a monthlong standoff that held up a slate of Fed nominees," our Kate Davidson reports.

— And this morning, Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett write that at least two Senate Democrats are undecided on whether to support ED GONZALEZ's nomination to lead Immigration and Customs Enforcement after the discovery of domestic abuse allegations against him.

ICYMI: SAVING DAYLIGHT — The Senate on Tuesday "passed legislation that would make daylight saving time permanent starting in 2023, ending the twice-annual changing of clocks in a move promoted by supporters advocating brighter afternoons and more economic activity," Reuters' David Shepardson writes.

It's unclear what the House will do — or Biden, for that matter — but it's safe to say the sudden vote (and passage!) caught the Senate by surprise.

DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE.

PLAYBOOKERS

After Mark Warner suggested that Jon Tester's bracket prediction of a Montana State University NCAA basketball championship was unlikely (they're a 16-seed in the women's tourney and a 14-seed in the men's), Tester challenged him to a game of one-on-one while sharing an instantly classic gif of the Montana senator flagrantly fouling Cory Booker in 2018.

Doug Emhoff had an eventful Tuesday: first, picking kale in a Northeast D.C. community garden ("We did it, Joe!" he said, turning to the press) — then testing positive for the coronavirus. Eugene has more on this here

Kamala Harris subsequently bowed out of an Equal Pay Day event, lest she also test positive. She later tested negative.

Hillary Clinton mocked Russia for sanctioning her.

Omarosa Manigault Newman is getting hit with a $61,585 penalty for failing to file a financial disclosure report after she was fired from Trump's White House.

Mehmet Oz said he'd waive security clearances that senators automatically receive if it means he could maintain his dual citizenship with Turkey.

OUT AND ABOUT — Washington is lit, y'all, as people are coming out of their Covid caves. Keep up:

1) BARR'S BOOK BASH — At a book party in his honor Tuesday night, former A.G. Bill Barr thanked "the people who stood up for me" during his time leading the DOJ — specifically name-checking McConnell and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who were among the attendees at the Ristorante Tosca soiree in downtown D.C.

"I always had the senators in my pocket," Barr said. "It seemed whenever I got in trouble, all of a sudden, I read these articles with senator after senator making positive remarks — and I know who was behind that, and I really appreciate that."

Barr also lamented the arc of Donald Trump's presidency: "I was very deeply frustrated by the second year of the administration, because I felt that a lot of people worked very hard" to help Trump win the "eminently winnable election," he said. "The president was told by everybody just to tone it down a little bit, some of his behavior," or else he risked losing support in the suburbs.

Despite it all, Barr said he didn't regret joining the administration, because he was worried about Trump being "stampeded out" by the Russia investigation.

SPOTTED: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Lachlan Murdoch, Rod Rosenstein, Jeff Rosen, Pat Cipollone, Robert Thompson, Samantha Dravis, Virginia Boney, Kerri Kupec, Jack Keane, Will Levi, Jon Karl and Josh Dawsey.

2) A GOODBYE — Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) held a supporter "Thank You" event Tuesday night, where she also honored chief of staff Brad Howard, who's leaving her office. SPOTTED: Reps. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Joe Cunningham, Ben McAdams, Dennis Cardoza,Tom Graves, Bob Van Heuvelen, Tait Becker, Suzanne Beall, Alisa La, Ryan Guthrie, Heather McHugh, Michael Lukso, Libby Greer, Jennifer Walsh, Kristen Hawn, Michael Castellano, Chris Davis, Peter Filon, Grace Rodden and Courtney Lee-Ashley.

3) A DINNER — Alexander Philon and A. Phokion Potamianos hosted a dinner at the Cosmos Club on Tuesday night to promote the Gennadius Library in Athens. SPOTTED:Sally Quinn, Margaret Carlson, Doug Holladay, Phil Rucker, Steve Clemons, Karen Pierce and Charles Roxburgh, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Jonathan Swan, Elsa Walsh and Bob Woodward, Olivia Nuzzi and Ryan Lizza, Quinn and Fabiola Bradlee, Pamela Reeves and Jeff Goldberg, Mary Jordan, Bob Costa, Remi Yamamoto, Sharyn Rothstein, Paul Glastris, Steve Weisman, Lucky Roosevelt, C. Boyden Gray, John Negroponte, Keslue Marshall, Greek Ambassador Alexandra Papadopoulou, Fillipos Letsas, Harry Andreades and Vassilis Coutifaris, Helen Philon, and historian Peter Frankopan, who will deliver a free public lecture today at Georgetown University on the impact of Greek culture.

MEDIA MOVE — Gina Chua will be executive editor of the new startup Ben Smith and Justin Smith are launching, per NYT's Katie Robertson. She most recently has been executive editor of Reuters.

TRANSITIONS —Vish Burra is joining Logan Circle Group as executive producer as they expand their investment in podcasts. He most recently was special operations coordinator for Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), for whom he created and directed the video podcast "Firebrand," and previously produced Steve Bannon's "War Room." … Tom Foulkes is joining Platinum Advisors as SVP, working on its new "50 State Program." He currently is senior director of state advocacy at BSA | The Software Alliance. …

… Poolhouse is adding Jonathan Ewing, Bradley Leonard, MaryGrace Downey and Natalie Bell. Ewing will be director of the political department and remain as a political adviser to Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Leonard is joining the post-production team and is an NRCC, NRSC and Youngkin alum. Downey is joining the political team and is a Youngkin alum. Bell will be production coordinator and is an RNC alum. … Tom Carpenter is joining Mastercard as SVP for industry and standards engagement in North America. He previously was director of public affairs and marketing at the Financial Data Exchange.

ENGAGED — Nick Iacovella, SVP for public affairs and comms at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, proposed to Chelsea Pezzola, a former professional golfer and media personality, on Feb. 28 at Nobu Los Cabos in Mexico. Instapics

WEEKEND WEDDING — Melissa Brown, comms director for the House Freedom Caucus, and James Braid, chief of staff for Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), got married Saturday in Washington. Pic … Another pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Ryan McCormack, chief of staff to Rep. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.), and Anna McCormack, chief of staff to Rep. David Rouzer (R-N.C.), welcomed daughter Maeve McCormack on March 6. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Ron Kind (D-Wis.) and Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) … NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg … AP's Julie Pace (4-0) … MSNBC's Amy Shuster … Art Collins … White House's Jeff Nussbaum … former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) of Squire Patton Boggs (6-0) … Rebecca Coffman … SKDKnickerbocker's Jason Rosenbaum … Andy Lewin of BGR Group … Ian McCaleb … WaPo's Dalton Bennett and Ellen McCarthy … Scott Simon (7-0) … Boeing's Kevin Varney … Adam Blickstein … TechNet's Carl Holshouser … Enrique Marquez … Jordana Cutler … Brian Young … NYT's Neil Vigdor and Brian Rosenthal … Gary Emerling … Alexandra Stabler

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com . Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.

A message from PhRMA:

According to a new poll , voters overwhelmingly support policies that would lower out-of-pocket costs and bring greater transparency and accountability to the health insurance system.

We need to make the cost of medicine more predictable and affordable. Government price setting is the wrong way. The right way means covering more medicines from day one, making out-of-pocket costs more predictable and sharing negotiated savings with patients at the pharmacy counter.

Learn more.